This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

April Core Retail Sales Were Just Revised From A 100% Beat To A Miss

Tyler Durden's picture




 

When two weeks ago we reported on the core retail sales "beat", we were surprised. Here's why: "Retail sales ex autos were in line with expectations at -0.1%, on expectations of a -0.2% print, but it was the sales number ex-autos and gas which surprised the most, rising 0.6% on expectations of a +0.3% increase, up from a -0.1% decline." We are no longer surprised. Reuters has the answer:

  • US APRIL RETAIL SALES EX-AUTOS/GASOLINE REVISED TO +0.2 PCT (PREV +0.6 PCT)

And, as a reminder, the consensus was for a +0.3% print. So instead of a 100% beat relative to consensus, it was a 50% miss. Why did this happen: from the Census Bureau: "retail sales estimates were revised to reflect the introduction of a new sample, new seasonal factors, and results of the 2011 Annual Retail Trade Survey." Of course, the algos who bid stocks up on the flashing read headline of this now outdated and flawed "beat", will certainly go back and sell all the stocks they were otherwise going to buy, since it is now a "miss."

 

- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Fri, 05/31/2013 - 10:34 | 3613507 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

But PMI is rocking and consumers are happier than ever...how can this be?

Fri, 05/31/2013 - 10:35 | 3613509 Rubicon
Rubicon's picture

When in doubt, lie.

Fri, 05/31/2013 - 10:37 | 3613515 ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture

Fake it til ya make it!

Fri, 05/31/2013 - 10:43 | 3613538 Divided States ...
Divided States of America's picture

it dont matter if its positive or negative. its just another headline for the algos to jump on....

Fri, 05/31/2013 - 10:41 | 3613527 FL_Conservative
FL_Conservative's picture

"When things get serious, lie."  There.  Fixed it for you.

Fri, 05/31/2013 - 10:42 | 3613532 IPA
IPA's picture

People are happy because chocolate rations went up again

Fri, 05/31/2013 - 10:45 | 3613548 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

OT, but major bond vol. today again.  

Fri, 05/31/2013 - 10:50 | 3613565 ThunderingTurd
ThunderingTurd's picture

No doubt.  Berstanke is sweating bullets I imagine.

Fri, 05/31/2013 - 11:02 | 3613607 madbraz
madbraz's picture

Bernanke (Dudley for that mattter) doesn't care about our bonds, like the japanese do for theirs.  Our game is all stock market, all the time.  Financial assets as a percentage of total household assets here is almost double what the ratio is in most every country.  The idiot will try to protect that as if it is real money (it's not!).

Fri, 05/31/2013 - 12:50 | 3613957 Iam_Silverman
Iam_Silverman's picture

"Financial assets as a percentage of total household assets here is almost double what the ratio is in most every country."

 

Due, in no doubt, to the introduction of the 401K, and later the self-directed IRA?

Fri, 05/31/2013 - 12:27 | 3613894 Never One Roach
Never One Roach's picture

I think the retial sales numbers may be off a smidge since they don't include the used cr*p my Aunt Minnie Haha is selling...yes, those 32 year old moldy dusty dresses that have been hanging there that I'm sure will sell like wildfire on EPlay for at least $3.56 a piece.

 

What's the sales number if you add those ?  Much higher, right?

Fri, 05/31/2013 - 10:34 | 3613508 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Bait and switch.

Fri, 05/31/2013 - 10:36 | 3613513 asscannon101
asscannon101's picture

That fucking weather again...

Fri, 05/31/2013 - 10:43 | 3613535 Hayek FA
Hayek FA's picture

Unseasonaly Seasonal weather.....

Too hot,cold,wet and dry.

Fri, 05/31/2013 - 12:51 | 3613965 Iam_Silverman
Iam_Silverman's picture

"Unseasonaly Seasonal weather...."

All blobbed up by American citizenism.

Fri, 05/31/2013 - 10:40 | 3613522 adr
adr's picture

IN other words:

We made it all up to help juice overpriced stocks even more to let insiders cash out for a few extra million. You didn't expect us to use ACTUAL data did you? Wow, you didn't learn anything over the last four years did you.

 

Fri, 05/31/2013 - 10:40 | 3613525 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

... and the Dow just shot right back up again.

Fri, 05/31/2013 - 10:48 | 3613557 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

yes, right along with treasury yields, tick tock...

Lots of balls in the air right now.

Fri, 05/31/2013 - 10:54 | 3613580 Dr. Venkman
Dr. Venkman's picture

Lots of balls in the air right now.

 

more like spinning plates. . .

Fri, 05/31/2013 - 11:16 | 3613639 tickhound
tickhound's picture

Bad data no taper good data taper catch 22 the market can't lose key Fed fundamental.

Low rates moved stocks higher so higher rates should move stocks higher key retail selling point.

And when we reach these inflection points 15350 / 1666, it shows "the strength and resilience of our markets."

The end completely justifies the means, now, to these people.  Our entire financial analyst / service sector has become a willing participant and is complicit in the fraud. 

They've been selling us on recovery for 5 years now... right around the corner.

Extended unemployment checks, snap cards, disability claims can be "bullish" for the strapped consumer.  Living in a home payment free awaiting foreclosure is taking the good with the bad.  Retail should be confused.  Everyone should be confused.

Just like the market as I type this... up another 36 chips. 

And the 10yr spike to 2.16%, add 24 more chips to +60.  LOL.

 

 

 

Fri, 05/31/2013 - 10:41 | 3613530 GolfHatesMe
GolfHatesMe's picture

This could lower confidence

Fri, 05/31/2013 - 10:43 | 3613540 icanhasbailout
icanhasbailout's picture

which creates all the more room for confidence to rise again

 

then you do the hokey-pokey and you turn yourself around... that's what it's all about

Fri, 05/31/2013 - 10:46 | 3613550 Racer
Racer's picture

It is all FAKE, LIES and CONS to prop up the 'market'

Fri, 05/31/2013 - 10:47 | 3613552 gold mans sack
gold mans sack's picture

At least it was a positive net change. Double plus good. Forward!

Fri, 05/31/2013 - 10:49 | 3613558 InconvenientCou...
InconvenientCounterParty's picture

attention span arbitrage. Slightly less substanstial than fiat money but substantial nonetheless.

Fri, 05/31/2013 - 10:51 | 3613568 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Tax evasion.

Fri, 05/31/2013 - 10:56 | 3613590 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

     They might as well give a couple of monkeys some numbers with velcro on them. Then let them throw the numbers at a(fuzz covered) wall with random numbers on it. The numbers would be moar accurate<

Fri, 05/31/2013 - 11:23 | 3613687 thismarketisrigged
thismarketisrigged's picture

come on guys, did u not see the michigan consumer confidence number printed at 84.3?

 

people are confident, i am so fucking confident, things are great. 50 million on food stamps, all time low in terms of people looking for work, but the dow and s&p are reaching all time highs so things must be good.

 

honestly, what the fuck is the michigan consumer confidence number? who the fuck do they ask? i never understood, because if you took that confidence number on zerohedge, it would print at 0.1 if that high even.

 

things are fucking awful.

Fri, 05/31/2013 - 11:48 | 3613756 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

Good thing there in no inflation.

Happy Aloha Friday bitchez... 

Fri, 05/31/2013 - 12:01 | 3613806 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

When things like this occur, I just think of beef curtains and I am happy.

Fri, 05/31/2013 - 12:01 | 3613808 AcidRastaHead
AcidRastaHead's picture

Smoothing seasonal patterns is all about historical patterns. New insights and inputs are of course expected, but "new seasonal factors" smells a lot like undue manipulation or goal-seeking to me.

Fri, 05/31/2013 - 12:57 | 3613982 Iam_Silverman
Iam_Silverman's picture

"but "new seasonal factors" smells a lot like undue manipulation or goal-seeking to me."

Or, is this just another way to blame the sequester for everything ranging from bad weather to higher taxes and a snooping IRS?  Will 1Q through 2Q now be included in the "New Seasonal Sequestration Factor (TM)"?

Fri, 05/31/2013 - 12:30 | 3613903 Father Lucifer
Father Lucifer's picture
 

Thank you for responding to the recent email from eBay Inc. CEO John Donahoe and asking your Members of Congress to protect small businesses from new Internet sales tax burdens. Like you, a significant number of eBay users sent letters to Capitol Hill. Unfortunately there is more to do.

The U.S. Senate recently passed Internet sales tax legislation without incorporating a meaningful small business definition that would protect small businesses from new tax burdens. The bill is now in the U.S. House of Representatives, where a growing number of voices are expressing concern with the proposal. Make your voice heard again. Call your U.S. House Member today and tell them how you will be negatively affected by the Marketplace Fairness Act.

Call Representative Henry A. Waxman at (202) 225-3976 or (310) 652-3095.

 

 

 

If you are a small business, the Marketplace Fairness Act will force you to collect sales taxes for more than 9,600 tax jurisdictions and potentially subject you to audits.

If you oppose this Internet sales tax bill and believe that small businesses should be treated like job creators, not tax collectors, call your U.S. House Representative right now and tell them that Internet sales tax legislation should protect small businesses with less than 50 employees or less than $10 million in out-of-state sales from collecting sales tax nationwide.

Sincerely,
Tod Cohen
Vice President of Government Relations and Deputy General Counsel
eBay Inc.

P.S. If you received a response from one or more of your Members of Congress we’d love to see it – please forward to us at government_relations@ebay.com.

Fri, 05/31/2013 - 12:53 | 3613973 Haager
Haager's picture

My brain hurts. Is bad = good already over? 'Misses' just show that tapering won't happen any time soon, so algo reactions shouldn't be that different. 

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!