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April Income Lower Than Expected, Leads To Weaker Spending; Savings Rate At Unsustainable Lows
In yet another confirmation that the US consumer continues to get slammed, and is respectively slamming the GDP by spending less, today's April personal spending and personal income both missed expectations, printing flat and declining -0.2% from the March numbers, much as expected following the Q1 spending spree, which means that economic growth in Q2 and onward as a function of consumer spending will only "taper" going forward especially with the delayed impacts of the payroll tax negative effect on spending finally starting to trickle down. What's worse, is that since incomes did not improve in April, the savings rate remained flat at a minuscule 2.5%, or just off the lowest its has been since the start of the Second Great Fed-propped Depression.
Income:
Real disposable income actually posted a modest increas. The magic of a lower than expected deflator (-0.3%, Exp. -0.2%).
Personal Spending: no rebound here.
And the all important cash buffer - the savings rate. One word: unsustainable.
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"Beating expectations" all the way down...
But confidence is way up???
confidently beating expectations all the way down.
melt up, baby, melt up!
This is a start, but we really need that personal savings rate to be much lower. Aggregate demand is directly proportional to consumer spending, and if you're saving, you're not spending. This is one of the fundamental problems with saving, and why consumers have a responsibility to spend more.
" we really need that personal savings rate to be much lower. " - yes, yes, bankers should never have to work for a living ever again and do any kind of do diligence by loaning the money of savers out to reliable/solid businesses and paying savers interest. Bankers should just be able to create money out of thin air and collect interest/fees just because. Yes, let's make sure that irresponsible behavior keeps getting rewarded. MDB is on fire today, is there a link to some of the funds you manage? I want in!
I predict it will bounce back off of zero no matter how bad the economy.
Tyler, are you gonna post a "best of MDB" at some point? I think this one's pretty good...definite top 15.
When the going gets tough, the tough go shopping.
Spenders are Losers by and large...
Its really about "controlfidence" and therein lies their problem......they MUST retain control which limits the free market from working and therefore NO confidence will be achieved.....the proverbila rock and a hard place
MDB -all good! green light says go baby go! buy that shit, buy, buy,buy!
stimulate, homes on fire, krugman nails it again! ben da man!
ALL FUCKIN GOOD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Just when you confidently think its safe to get back in the water, there's no pool FFS
Which gives us the obscene mental image of people walking on the bottom of the pool, moving their arms as if swimming, and talking about how good the water feels. This is exactly what swimming is like in Bernanke's pool.
I want a motivational poster of that image. Caption: "Faith".
+1. Good one!
Fuck you Bernanke
I mentioned this same idea about the income situation when confidence came out, it got 23 ticks up.
It just make no sense.....however, has anyone ever been polled? Or even KNEW a person to be polled by these polls like PPP, Rasmussen, UM Confidence, etc?*
*BTW, you've just been polled
The confidence game is way up!
Media is touting how great the economy is. Stocks going up and dunces are confused. Look at household income and the soft underbelly of the US housing market.
http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2013/05/31/whoville-fed-is-generating-economic-drag-income-growth-less-than-zero-and-housing-problems/
Taper + Trickle = Tickle?
Keep the .1% placated with FED provided stock welfare all you like, but one day soon the bankrupt 99.9% are going to be a real problem.
But but but... the American ConsumerTM is CONfident! UMich and Team Obama said so - and they wouldn't lie, would they?
Poll numbers about to collapse?
easy to fix, just stop counting voters, his poll numbers will actually go up.
"Peter Principle" at work?
I'm the only one that expected it.......really?
But........
Tyler.. do not know where to submit some interesting info so... i put it here about Eurex and HFT and some obvious conflict of interest
http://www.automatedtrader.net/articles/sponsored-articles/142740/eurex-exchange-releases-results-of-proprietary-hft-research
In my area of Taxachusetts, 5 stores close for every 2 that open. Gee... I'm no great mathematician but I think we all know how this is going to end.
There already is Weimar-style inflation when it comes to rents in Boston.
At some point, the irreistable force (waning incomes) meets the immovable object (inflation).
Not just rents - house/condo prices in my little town south of the city are already starting to get back into bubblicious territory. And land (if you can find it) is going at a premium. The new trend is to buy a house, knock it down and build 2 on the lot. These are usually on the market for about a month - in the $400K range.
I'm sure it will end well, though.
You must be a little north of me but it sounds about right. Industrial parks have "for lease" signs on 50% of the buildings. An old factory closed and someone wanted to turn it into apartments but that was opposed because manufacturing might move in. I'm out of here in 4 years.
495 belt real estate is 90% correlated with Ellsbury steals. Definite bubble territory...
There's 1 local 'location' which has had 5 stores open and fold in the last 5 years....it's like the downward spiral you see in old 7-11 corner stores where they become a pawn shop, then a bodega, then there's just a guy in a van selling black velvet paintings of Elvis.
Those "paintings" are actually flourescent cray-pas sprayed over with Pam.
Speaking of taxes...is anyone monitoring the lag time for refunds??? Not the Feds - the states! I'm seeing protracted foot-dragging from a couple of east-coast "New" state treasury offices that I won't mention. Oops.
My daughter called yesterday looking for her refund. They told her that it was for her own protection that they were reviewing it. She chuckled and they didn't like that. I told her not to expect anything until after Labor day.
I told her not to expect anything until after Labor day.
What year?
We unloaded $2 billion of liabilities in 2012 and gave out 1800 pink-slips worldwide. The stretch of road where divisions of my company are based is full of unfilled commercial real estate.
Of course, Taxachusetts Citizens still won't show up to vote, even when Bacon Hill imposes yet another $500 Billion tax increase, which conveniently doesn't go into effect until 2015, AFTER elections.
There's simply not enough who care, or competent enough to make truly informed decisions when they go to the polls, if they go at all.
What do they expect when everybody is going to either part time or contracted out thanks to Obummer care?
all nothin but a dream...
drop out, drop in, baby, baby come back!
i didn't mean what I said...
we can make it better, really!
Over dinner with a client this week I was asked, "Do other people actually feel as if things are improving?" This question was posed from a couple who lives on the West Coast and has a very significant level of income. His point was that, he realizes his wealth is increasing via paper gains; however, he is taking home less money, spending more on living expenses, and sending two kids to college across country. He owns his own business and seems to be struggling to generate additional sales. If he, of all people, is feeling strapped...then how is the $70k/year family of four doing? With QE, subsidies, and entitlements is there any true way of knowing how the real people feel?
"how is the $70k/year family of four doing?" - depending on the city they live in and their relative health, they may or may not be the recipients of food stamps and state provided health care. Seriously, do some research. Things are that good. Again, I remain long black markets and sharecropping.
Yea i'm just a sharecropper.
Interesting that you keep mentioning sharecropping. We met a family recently who asked us to rent them a small portion of our acreage so they could plant a vegetable/fruit garden. They live in a suburb of DC, typical new development of large homes and little land. They have already planted their garden and go out there regularly to weed and feed. They are also taking up canning. It was almost tragic/comedic to watch them get so excited when their strawberry plants started sprouting flowers. They also planted a variety of berry bushes that won't yield anything this year, so I guess they plan on being around that garden for awhile.
That sounds somewhat like me. I planted my first garden this year. A decent bunch of stuff on my tiny plot. The spinach/lettuce and some other stuff are up. Everything else is doing well. Planted some berrys for fun.
I literally go outside and stare at it. It's my little shred of peace.
Conversely I went to a large retail food place to get breakfast this morning in a rush. I am on line and it occurs to me that everyone behind the counter was speaking spanish. Like 7 people. So Iplace my order and as I wait the guy behind me must have had an issue with his order. Te girl behind the counter yells "what's with your Fkin white people! We can't understand you!"
Within like 30 seconds of that I get a text from a budddy of mine who was at his supermarket. He sends me a pic of the aisles. "Aisle 2 Asian...aisle 3 Indian...aisle 4...spanish" He wrote "where is the freakin american asile?"
I literally got short of breath. I almost had a Michael Douglas falling down freakout moment.
More food for thought; We lease bee hives from a local source to place around our fruit and nut groves every year. I am struggling to find enough hives this year. Not good.
I've been seriously thinking about building my own hives either later this year or next year. I know bee keeping is very difficult to do correctly but before Monsanto kills off all of our bees, we are going to have to do something. When I lived in the UK, bee keeping was fairly common. In this part of the US it is extremely rare. Give me your thoughts on this, please. I know this is not a matter of if I build it they will come. I would have to buy bees from a local keeper to start off with.
Good luck finding some nukes to start your hives. They are in high demand. Typical $100-$200 per hive, no guarrantee they will survive either. My beekeeper told me he is about 50/50 on the survival of new hives.
Yup. I am hoping that it will all be worth it but I'm not so sure. I'm still researching it but I do know this. Unless we help, the bee population is going to dwindle out in some areas permanently. The ensuing descruction to plant and wild life is going to be horrific.
That's a horrible way to start the day, Fonz. Its only going to get worse, not better. I would not go there again, give your money to someone else who will not begin your day by insulting you.
Planting and growing a garden is about the most satisfying thing you can do, in my opinion. Bringing in those vegetables and fruits to consume, or canning them to be enjoyed later, is an indescribable feeling for those just starting out. There are people in my area who, against local zoning laws, are buying goats and chickens and building them shelters in their back yards. So far, no one has complained. This is a well-established residential area with fairly expensive homes who are front yard proud. In the back of those well-maincured lawns, people are gathering their own eggs and milk to be consumed at their table. Ever so slowly, I see less and less reliance on paper and more reliance on self. If I would have told those people ten years ago that raising goats would be common in the area, they would have laughed. They're not laughing now.
No kidding. I see it here too. We can't get "off the grid" here but I see greenhouses and solar panels more and more. It's amazing. At the same time there is absolutely no manufacturing and almost all jobs here are government related. It's disturbing.
I think, in the bottom of their hearts, people are learning that something is horribly wrong in their daily news feeds and that an inevitable blackness is on the horizon in the form of a flock of swans. People are getting uncomfortable, even those that are making a hefty sum of money. I'm not sure what it is, but when a defense contractor who makes about $350K a year starts raising goats and chickens, something is happening to disturb him and others, if only on a subliminal level.
There has been an explosing in the land trusts currently leasing out land for such activities. Unlike most of Asia, one asset America has is arable land. Assets like this (and a strong military) is what backs our solvency, for now. When push comes to shove, the politico better protect this.
That reminded me of the woman in Detroit who was sued by the city for using her front garden to plant vegetables and fruits. First of all Detroit ought to be fucking glad to have anyone living in it, and secondly, both houses on either side of her were run down and vacant so she was not 'devaluing' anyone's property. The city of course is razing abadonded houses by the block and putting in parks, but if a private citizen does it, its somehow magically wrong. I hope you are right, Laws.
Americans don't vote anymore. "the process" has Disassociated itself from them. still don't see the recession yet though. Prices are clearly heading south...but that isn't recovery positive either. I did see Ford has sold more hybrids YTD than all of last year. Those folks are working and adding extra shifts. "added value" bitchez. Same old same old don't cut it no more.
RE
Obama put that nail in the coffin for my generation (at least the ones awake like me).
I mean, the continued wars (terror, drugs), raising of taxes on poor people, and personally, his DOJ killing online poker in the United States........I mean, it was really all predicted if you disconnected yourself from the "hope" propaganda.
The disconnect between Wall Street, DC, and Main St is so wide, you could construct a new universe inside of it.
I am so proud that I've never voted in my life because it validates what my father told me when I was young: 99% of these assholes do NOT care about you.
RE:
No....because THEY don't even know how to feel about this shit.
Everybody sees what's down the road. They just keep their head down, though.
"America should just keep living their lives" - Ben Bernanke
Nothing that can't be fixed by bigger banker bonuses. bitchez.
Whay would anyone put money in banks run by criminals?
i know what your thinking, but i think obamaster is set up as a fall guy, just like bush. The next one might be hitler type.
Wow, this is really bad. It may take the algo bots a whole 15 minutes to walk stocks to green.
of course futures have made up like 50 pts this morning.
biggest pomo of month at 10 i believe, market green in no time,
what a fucking ponzi scheme being run, yet nothing done about it.
also, isnt it funny how when a market is very shaky, the financials are the 1st to fall, yet the fucking financials continue to go up. talking about a bubble.
Algos were turned on in futures at around 4:45AM, for a quick 5 points. Then they put it in cruise control and hasn't budged, even with the lousy spending and deflation numbers from personal income report.
They were blunt enough to even manage to put treasuries down on deflation-pointing data released at 8:30 - who needs economic data and analysis when the rulers of the world have algos and can buy and sell to themselves seemingly endlessly, not to mention borrow $20+ billion in treasuries every day from the NY Fed as they lack collateral.
Healthy market, yeah right. Corruption at all levels - check.
Even way before this, did Americans have any savings?
Is it possible the savings rate is down because people are pulling money from their 0% savings accounts and buying stawks?
Tallies with observation, although I expected savings to be slightly negative as people have been dipping into it for their daily bills.
The msm are selling the fantasy of economic recovery based on not-so-bad data, the market indexes and housing. Wonderful. In our household, when we watch the news we play a game called, "Spot the lie". Outright lies and lies by ommission. It's getting so bad that hardly a sentence is heard before one of us spots one.
Here's a bit of reality: you need a job to have an income, you need cheap bills to have disposable cash, then you need faith in the future to save. None of these exist for the vast majority (and growing number) of people.
Clearly people feel that they have saved enough, and are now willing to spend money. Recovery is right around the corner!
maybe im not thinking straight, but isnt people spending less money a sign of a weak economy? well u would not know it because the dow, s&p and nasdaq are basically flat now and will be green after chicago pmi release no matter how bad it is.
i hate u ben, i can not stress it enough, u r ruining my life, and all my fellow hard working americans lives as well. u, along with the rest of ur wall st buddies and fed buudies, and obama, deserve the worst
On the savings rate chart, one (me) could make the arguement that the low is in and this recent low is a test of the uptrend. Take a good hard look at the chart. It looks to me like the trend in place since the top in 1974 bottomed in 2001 and again in 2005. Then it broke out. It may be making a 'higher low' right now. It also might be carving out a wedge pattern (early stages)
More inflation and stealth inflation is showing up everywhere. Things the average American will really see.
I was astounded to see a single Taco is now $1.49 at Taco Bell. Up from $.99 three months ago. Before that they were $.79. In the late 90s they were $.49.
McDonalds got rid of the 1/3lb Angus burgers and replaced them with specialty 1/4lb burgers. Same price, less meat.
I don't understand how anyone shops at Petsmart. The prices have gone ludacris. I looked, laughed, and went out the door. My son got a kitten so I went to check supplies. A $1.50 tub of vacuum molded plastic sells for $36. A glued stack of cardboard priced at $18. Ground up fish organs called "Fancy Feast", $2.75 for a small can. A deshedding brush, $42!!! A $2.75 product from China max.
I do know why though. Petsmart works on 90% margin. What is $1 in wholesale cost is $10 on the shelf. I tried to sell product to them once. I told the buyer he was out of his fucking mind and walked out.
If more Americans would wise up to the great wall street con job, and stop overpaying by at least 50% to support mass publicly traded retail, we might start to change for the better.
Most likely people will just keep on believing a tub of plastic actually needs to cost $36.
wow, just watching on my level 2, the dow literally went from -26 to -6 in a millisecond.
unreal
Some people are saying that EVERYONE should take every red cent out of all banks, stop paying credit and all debt, and take a vacation from work for a month or two.... or three... this would bring the haughty politicians to the brink of reality. The current regime is deliberately sabatoging any possible recovery and recruiting for free shit from the government. people are resorting to criminal behavior (disability fraud, wefare fraud and 40% fraud in medicare/medicaid).. Exactly as planned. Overload and destroy the system. The middle class is history... and then gradually they turn the screw and even those that feel imune will get digested in the new order...
What amazes me is that everyone is looking for a "recovery" that looks like the past. Its over kiddies. The USSA and Amerika is upon us. Jobs are in China and India, and NOT COMING BACK, the consumer is 70% of our economy and fading fast... no mas debt... waiting for the student loan bubble to burst and waiting to see if the new IRS health police and navigators will have "SS" in their insignia. Obama wanted a 3 milllion man army loyal to only him. Hamas and Hezbullah have sent a few hundred thousand across the border along with the sinaloa drug cartel... welll armed by obama and holder. Homeland security is mingling with peaceful demonstrators in plain clothes + armed with mraps on the ready...drones overhead.. China and Russia are building up their military while downsize and we focus on domestic "terrorists"... you know people who are fucking tired of paying their "fair share" of taxes while cronys use loop holes purchased in Congrewss and send jobs overseas, the currency is rancid, the border is pourous, corruption is the norm in DC... Yeah its all getting better...
once the manufacturing base was dismantled and shipped overseas
everything went to shit
Personal Information
http://chartistfriendfrompittsburgh.blogspot.com/2013/05/personal-information.html
We don't need to save because all the graduates are moving back home after they graduate. They can just live with their parents their whole lives and collect Bennie-fets.
Wait, their parents will eventually die and the purchasing power of the Shalom stamps is declining.
Oops...
I quit saving a few years ago and started spending ... on extra land, PV, PM, new roof, doors and windows, self-defense "tools" and "supplies",cookstove, cold room, permaculture shrubs and trees, storage food, tools, chickens, ducks, goats, outdoor work clothes and boots, alternative transportation. I have another year or two of spending to go until I'm satisfied.
What shit are you spending YOUR money on ?