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The Week That Was: May 27th - May 31st 2013

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Succinctly summarizing the positive and negative news, data, and market events of the week...

Positives

  1. Conference Board’s consumer confidence survey surges in May, 10yr spikes
  2. Case-Shiller home prices surge in March, ironically led by the same states that fueled the last bubble
  3. Richmond Fed Mfg beats expectations, however new orders plunge
  4. NYSE Margin Debt reaches all-time high, this should end well
  5. Dow continues its streak, now 20-20 on Tuesdays
  6. The next crisis is already contained! Sallie Mae splits, with the intent on containing looming student loan bubble
  7. Q1 US GDP revised down again , and initial claims jump (all news is now good news, as we all know)
  8. US shrugs off weak 2yr auction, sees stronger 7yr $29bn dollar auction
  9. UMich Confidence reaches 6 year high but spending slumped?
  10. Chicago PMI smashes expectations (didn’t work out so well last time)

 

Negatives

  1. JGB’s define ‘volatile’, exhibit 3 sigma price drop
  2. This is NOT how you help cash flow Larry: Pensions being hit by ZIRP policy
  3. ~60% of the S&P’s earnings since Q3 2011 have been due to CapEx & positive growth projects buybacks
  4. Weak US 2yr auction, as US sells $35bn with BTC hitting a two year low
  5. Crude oil drops on heavy volume
  6. Cyprus bank deposits fall, but don’t tell Krugman
  7. Japanese equities down, bond prices spike
  8. Asset allocation of Japanese Public Pension Fund has the fund 64% in JGB’s
  9. Demand for physical delivery of copper on LME soar to new record
  10. Income and Spending data considerably worse than expected
  11. European unemployment hits record high (and youth unemployment is stunningly bad)
  12. Mortgage rates rise to one-year highs
  13. US equities plunge into month-end

 

Additional

(h/t @ZH_Crown)

 

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Fri, 05/31/2013 - 16:38 | 3615085 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

And The Beat Goes On, sonny.

Fri, 05/31/2013 - 16:47 | 3615106 Edward Fiatski
Edward Fiatski's picture

Well, thank you Japano-Jomo. Now you're telling me equities are overpriced?

FUK-A YOU WHALE! AND FUK-A YOU DOLPHIN!

P.S. What I find most fascinating, is that every tidbit of the week has an article on ZH, and all of them are of relevance here. Great effort, Tylers.

Fri, 05/31/2013 - 17:24 | 3615225 Rathmullan
Rathmullan's picture

The fed has purchased debt at an averate rate of $105 billion per month thus far through 2013, well in excess of the promised $85 billion. Assuming another $105 billion in June ahead of the tapering decision. Mutt & Jeff (evans and dudley) will argue that anything less than $1020 billion ($85 billion x 12) in purchases in 2013 will spell a disaster for the the market and because the fed still somehow naively believes in its market magic wealth effect the fomc will listen to its two most official banking industry lobbyists. That results in tapering looking like $65 billion in monthly purchases beginning in July thru year end. While $65 billion per month is a minor cut relative to the promised $85 billion, it is a much more significant cut relative to the $105 billion actual monthly run rate, thereby making it more difficult for the primary dealers to prop up this market in the second half to the same extent that we saw in the first half. Indeed, it's hard to see the fed's actions leading to more than an 8% gain in the market in the second half. While 8% is certainly a good return, especially when annualized and relative to every other assest class, do you really want to be around when the asset purchases are tapered to just $35 billion per month beginning in January of 2014?   

Fri, 05/31/2013 - 18:11 | 3615352 DowTheorist
DowTheorist's picture

Two negatives:

a) Volume is bearish for 3 reasons, as listed here: http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2013/05/dow-theory-update-for-may-31-...

b) The Industrials made a higher high unconfirmed by other indices, which is bearish

Such negatives suggest a secondary reaction might be at hand.

 

 

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