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What Happened The Last Time Chicago PMI Soared
Presented with little comment aside to warn - beware the serial extrapolators...
Chicago PMI "soared" well above expectations to 57.9 in Auguest 2008, only to 'plummet' to 37.8 by October 2008...
As an additional gentle reminder, while the official data was blithely ignorant of the fact at the time, when Chicago PMI went from 46.6 in Feb '08 to 56.8 by Sept '08, we were already 9 months into the recession!
h/t @dondraperclone
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nature ... it's what happens before the tsunami ..run to the hills bitchez
But both Yahoo and CNBC said everything is fine and stock will keep going to the moon!
oh wait, I think they said the same thing in 2008. oh boy
I'ts going to break, the only quesion is when. Bernanke will print to infinity to keep it from happening, and the big powerful forces will manipulate it for their own protection, just like they did in the subprime meltdown...I don't think anything is going to happen real soon, but when it finally does happen it's going to be fucking ugly. Why would the Bernanke turn down another term? Because he knows he's fucked n the next 4 years. The question is who will take the job?It will tell a lot about the shit show that's coming.
"Bernanke will print to infinity to keep it from happening"...uh "Lawrence Summers will print to infinity to keep it from happening"
As long as K-fine says it...then we have no choice but to agree.
So, it is our early warning of catastrophic meltown 2013
Same as what nearly blew up the whole Western financial world 84 hours after the 2008 Lehman bankruptcy
From the classic ZeroHedge article,
'How The World Almost Came To An End At 2PM On September 18':
« On Thursday (Sept 18), at 11am the Federal Reserve noticed a tremendous draw-down of money market accounts in the U.S., to the tune of $550 billion was being drawn out in the matter of an hour or two. The Treasury opened up its window to help and pumped a $105 billion in the system and quickly realized that they could not stem the tide. We were having an electronic run on the banks. They decided to close the operation, close down the money accounts and announce a guarantee of $250,000 per account so there wouldn't be further panic out there.
If they had not done that, their estimation is that by 2pm that afternoon, $5.5 trillion would have been drawn out of the money market system of the U.S., would have collapsed the entire economy of the U.S., and within 24 hours the world economy would have collapsed. It would have been the end of our economic system and our political system as we know it.
We are no better off today ... »
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/how-world-almost-came-end-2pm-september-18
That's why Greece mattered to me soon thereafter: "here's what it looks like when you don't do that." market forces work in reverse ya know. Now for the question we all want to have answered: are you a Walloon or not?
I think the quoting characters give a decisive clue. Chevron quotes are on the French keyboard and not the Dutch keyboard, yes?
WE may be no better off today, but I AM.
In 2008, I owned virtually zero precious metals, or a whole host of other 'provisions'. Back then, a collapse of the financial system would have meant that I would have been destroyed as well.
As a proud owner of a LOT of precious metals, I have enough 'insurance' to protect myself from a TOTAL loss of all my paper wealth......all of it.
So if an economic meltdown hits in 2013, or whenever for that matter, I don't give a shit.
In fact, I'd welcome it.......might give me an opportunity to acquire things at 99% off their pre-meltdown values.
You do realize that if the entire globe goes south your PM's won't mean dick... you would be talking a matter of minutes, not days. Run on banks, stores and a complete shut down of JiT. National protectionism kicks in, and foreign exports (US imports, vise versa) become nill... you really should learn how the MODERN system all ties together, this time it IS different...
I really don't see how the entire globe goes south with things like world wide food riots and sudden and complete energy inaccessability. The system is so interconnected to many things would have to happen all at once for it to all shut down. If anything we're in for a multidecade deflationary recession this will be mitigated by people becoming further lost in technology than they already are. By the end of it we may be "Jacking in " Matrix style for relef from the stagnant "real" world...
Or things may just revert to the mean despite the oligarchs wants and the power structure of high finance will just wither away and die. Either way change is a comin'
I do "test cases" on certain scenarios for a certain company. I can tell you this, the vast majority of test cases involve uncontrolled behavior from populaces. Thats is what concerns me. Neighbor against neighbor. They were long drawn out tests, but it included demographics, education, "morals", age, perceptions, etc. bottom line is, people don't give a flammin' fuck about anything but themselves. God help us if it shits out. I hope you are right, but I think reality lies somewhere between both realities, or is something completely different no one anticipated...
Also, if the system collapses, there will be no need for "wealth" - you better invest in weapons, ammo, food, and a rural escape route. A meltdown will mean hell on earth...
Its deja vu all over again. ~ YB
No..it's different this time..it really is. Now get out there, mortgage the house, and buy some stawks.
I beleive that should be stalks
We did the unpatriotic thing and paid off our house. It took us forever to get the paper deed from Chase. It was clear to us halfway through the process that Chase had no fucking idea who actually owned the paper or who had it in their possession. After several weeks and threat of lawsuit they found our deed and gave it to us. I'm fairly certain that they just drew up another one rather than face of the embarassment of telling us "hey sorry, we have no idea where your mortgage is heh".
Same thing happened to us.
Eddie the Eagle
Slightly off in the analogy - as we all loved Eddie the Eagle....but the landing will be similar.
Look at the size of POMO today, and it got us nowhere. Wait until this Tuesday is the first down Tuesday since 1993.
Did Kevin depoly the funds today, or is he out until next week?
he knew he was going to be out next week...so he doubled up last week.
They are already experimenting with tapering.
LOL I love you ekm. I truly do. If by tapering you mean Bernanke is drunk, naked, running through the white house yelling like he has turrets... Then yes, they are experimenting with tapering.
Benny is out. He wanted out.
He is simply carrying orders
Tapering = Announce you are going to spend 40$B a month, then spend 80$B a month, then one month only spend 75$B. This is fed tapering.
RSloane wait until the 10yr jumps to 2.5 in June (should it happen) and the fed goes to 120 bil a month when they were supposed to be tapering. That is when there will not be any phyz for sale anymore despite these rock bottom prices.
The moment they see the results of any real tapering, they will begin to amplify their buying at frenzied pace.
someone, somewhere, sonehow, tapered a bit for them, and now we all know the empror has no clothes and a small penis.
Doc
There is no option. The situation is optionless.
They will stop.
It's the oil, but there is another thing becoming a lot more important:
CURRENCY SWAPS.
Even anglo allies like UK, Australia and last week New Zealand, are bypassing the dollar doing currency swaps with China.
Literally, this is the DISASTER.
There is no way they can stop. They will not stop. They will only disguise it more, and ramp up the taper rhetoric. If they stop the whole system implodes, period. If their system implodes there goes their power, and that's the last thing they want to happen.
Common sense says that between two bad choices, one selects least bad.
I don't think financial collapse is bad, however assuming financial collapse is bad, nothing would be worse than dollar avoidance.
Even countries like Argentina have set currency swaps with other Countries to avoid the dollar. Another phenomenae is that is that at the border towns there one price in the neighbourghs currency and a much higher one in us dollars. Things are more expensive for peopoe who come from dollar based or G9 countries. Effectively this is a real world practical devaluation under the radar of forex exchanges. Some similarity with paper gold versus physical.
Until next time,
Engineer
That sounds more like dollar shortage than dollar avoidance.
If they stop the whole system implodes, period. If their system implodes there goes their power, and that's the last thing they want to happen.
It's vastly more complicated than this... It's being presumptuous to say anything more than if the system implodes, that the specific mechanisms used today for power and control will cease to exist. For example, in a situation where the political environment is "the wild west" (which wasn't too wild, but I digress), then what's to stop the principal actors of the fraud from unveiling themselves and outright declaring themselves our masters? That we should quit worrying about these political niceties and get back to work on the plantation?
Power is derived from many things... the present system is just a temporary one of those things.
Further, assuming that there really is a bona fide power vacuum (instead of an indirect batton handoff), the new occupier of that vacuum may be worse than the guys who left (although this possibility decreases daily)... food for thought.
Well, ekm, if that is truly the case, then we are within six months of a major EPIC FAIL.
Literally, it all will come crashing down by fall.
Isn't Chairman Ben going to miss the Jackson Hole meeting in September?
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/bernanke-to-miss-jackson-hole-on-schedule-conflict-2013-04-21
Why, yes. Yes, he is. "Scheduling conflict" - as in, "I have a one-way ticket out of this hellhole. See ya, wouldn't wanna be ya!"
Look at the 10yr today. This during POMO.
Tapering during POMO?
TAPOMO?
POTAPER?
Potatomoar...
Months is too far I think.
Not even weeks.
I think it's a matter of days.
I did just take a glance at the 10YR. Yikes. Days may be right, ekm.
Chaos theory shows you that impossibility of predicting the timing. As impossible as attempting to control the system. As impossible as attempting to predict the trajectory the system will take once it leaves the current attractor. As impossible as attempting to predict what the new attractor will be.
Until next time,
Engineer
Agree.
Speculation is entertaining, though.
Further, avoiding speculation is a luxury none of us have... life forces us to make timing decisions on a daily basis...
Well said.
It makes sense
"... If they stop the whole system implodes, ..."
I'll try to be more specific, if interest rates keep trending up there will be a bond selling panic.
You can extrapolate from there.
Another engineer.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JnlkKdDXk-I
don't get me wrong ekm, i'm not disagreeing with your argument as a whole, but --
didn't you say something similar last week?
are you just saying it in an open-ended way, i.e. its now always a matter of days, but we will not be able to reliably "call it" due to the desparate, unpredictable decisions of those attempting to squeeze the last bit of life out of this sucker?
really makes you wonder, what date/event are they trying so hard to make it to?
What I mean is that it is IMMINENT.
The potential for IMMINENT PRE-PLANNED COLLAPSE IS VERY HIGH.
Iran/Syria
Coincidence I'm sure but the G20 meeting in September is looking
like there may be a surprise 'unveiling' of something or another.
A BRIC gold backed SDR perhaps ?
A gold backed trade settlement system.
Nothing is coincidence at that level.
Benny has rebelled, the way I see it, hence he's been showed the door.
White House rules. PERIOD
Regarding oil...I don't know if you watch CNBC or not. I normally don't, but this morning I turned it on and I noticed a meme they were trying to establish when it comes to shale oil in America and OPEC. In the first interview durin the wee hours of the morning the reporter interviewed a female minister from Nigeria. The question was asked in a way that she would give him the answer he wanted. Later on in the story became about how much they fear the development of shale oil in America. Personally I'm not a big believer in shale oil as having a major impact on prices as it is very expensive to get, however it was plain to see how they were teying to develope a meme in the market place.
USA consumes 19 million b/d and produces 7.5 million b/d.
Math shows that shale oil has had not much impact.
Shale oil has made an impact - a negative one - on local communities and households, the air, and the water.
I live in Western Pennsylvania, the heart of the hell we know as the Marcellus Shale formation. I know first hand of the disaster that is shale oil drilling.
Math and reality: Two inescapable truths of the world.
Month's end POMOs are there to absorb the dump, if the Fed decides to tweak its operations schedule for the following month in any way.
It was big enough to knock down gold.
Santelli: "The Interest Rate Market has been completely destroyed"
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100779656
They are saving the gas for the 1:30 ramp up. MArket HAS to be green for the end of the month.
Do they have golf courses?
In December 2008, IIRC the Fed said there was no expectation of a recession.
The daily forecast in Hell is partly sunny and 68. The Great Tormentor is thus a weatherman.
that was then
this is ben
The market is over positioned on leverage for a unicorn and skittles return to the 50's in just about every possible way.
I will show yoooouuu how to sell computers:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WLvzSIMNUNg
There is and has been for the past several years a total disconnect with the past. This article could be titled "History will repeat itself" except for the fact that all the conditions are different. People don't get too alarmed anymore. They are actually recognizing that the economy is slowing, QE is a farce, housing is actually starting to level off. and with 7.6% unemplyment incomes aren't there to support inflation. What's my point? The economy will continue to taper off, everyone will get worried again and we'll be right back here talking about this crap 3 years from now. The bandages that keep the US economy from a major hemorrage are in place. The wildcard is if Europe, Japan or China blow up. Whne that happens the bandages will be ripped off and then ....and I mean then...we 'll see the true color of blood.
Tyler
you are wrong 5 year straight. on almost anything.
and I m your biggest fan in the Middle East.
Zerohedge never tried to be right or wrong.
Zerohedge has been trying and is still trying very hard to show what is REALLY HAPPENING, rather than relying on main stream media PROPAGANDA.
Tyler has been right. There has been no recovery. Everything I see here about selling stocks is that it is the wrong thing to do until it becomes the right thing.
The S&P500 hourly has already turned the corner.
http://bullandbearmash.com/chart/sp500-hourly-breaks-1648-support-outloo...
Next week should be fun. Off to get some index puts.
10Y at 2.2% - this could get interesting...
Completely fraudulent report. And who would have expected it would come out of the cesspool in the Midwest run by Godfather sleaze!
What would Warrren do?