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Italy Labor Union Predicts Return To Pre-Crisis Employment By 2076

Tyler Durden's picture




 

By now it is conventional wisdom that the Italian economy is foundering alongside all other peripheral European nations as a result of a failed artificial currency leading to an inability for external rebalancing, a flawed monetary system leading to a collapse in credit demand, and the lack of any structural reform (and sorry, but when your budget deficit is soaring alongside your debt it's anything but "austerity's fault"). However, there is hope. According to Italy's trade union CGIL, good news may be just around the corner as Italy looks set to recover its pre-crisis unemployment level... In 2076, or a brief 63 years from now. "So, you're telling me there's a chance."

From Quotidiano:

It will take 63 years to recover employment levels of 2007. Only in 2076 will Italy return to the 25,026,400 units of labor standards in 2007 from 23,531,949 in 2014. This is stated in the office economic study of CGIL, which takes as its starting point the current context.

Some other metrics may not need to wait three generations until they "recover", among which GDP, which should return to pre-crisis levels in 2026, investment - by 2024, and productivity should be back in a brisk three years.

So much for the good news.

Now the bad news: "the level of real wages will never recover."

We are not sure if this was the base case, or the optimistic one. In either case, at least Italy has the Euro, and all that No Plan B "political capital" backing it.

 

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Sat, 06/01/2013 - 14:37 | 3616755 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

Well worth paying those Union Dues for

Sat, 06/01/2013 - 14:47 | 3616768 prains
prains's picture

too bad their population will be 50 million by then,opps. so even if employment numbers grow the % of employed will still shrink

Sat, 06/01/2013 - 15:00 | 3616813 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

That's not so bad.  I'll only be a hundred and...  WTF?

Sat, 06/01/2013 - 16:09 | 3616892 negative rates
negative rates's picture

There's no plan B, and you ain't gonna like plan C!

Sat, 06/01/2013 - 20:06 | 3617284 Midas
Midas's picture

"Just when I think they can't get any dumber,

...they do something like this, and TOTALLY REDEEM THEMSELVES!"

--D&D

Sat, 06/01/2013 - 14:59 | 3616814 nasdaq99
nasdaq99's picture

hard to make up shit any dumber than this.  brainless, gutless, totally morally bankrupt continent will implode this summer.

sweden riots popped up out of nowhere, now turkey popping up right outta nowhere.  it's gonna be likw whack-a-mole when they start burning it down in a month or so.  

a new group i hadn't heard of before has called for a national strike in portugal in july.  their name?  "Screw the Troika":

http://www.ivpressonline.com/business/sns-rt-us-portugal-strikebre94u10v-20130531,0,6436374.story

Sat, 06/01/2013 - 15:16 | 3616841 bank guy in Brussels
bank guy in Brussels's picture

And yesterday a mass of protesters advanced on euro-zone central bank headquarters in Frankfurt, to block the streets and entrances, and intimidate the European Central Bank employees

Blockupy the ECB ! was the theme (block + occupy)

The people in the streets are targeting the banks and central banks now ... it will indeed get hot

Somebody may well throw an incendiary and try to blow up that giant 'euro' € sign in front of the Frankfurt Central Bank building

« Thousands of anti-austerity protesters have flooded the streets leading to the European Central Bank in Frankfurt in a so-called ‘Blockupy’ protest. »

http://rt.com/news/frankfurt-banks-updates-live-048/

Sat, 06/01/2013 - 15:19 | 3616847 nasdaq99
nasdaq99's picture

and meanwhile nigel farage gains strength and even if he can't get contol anytime soon, he is totally changing the debate.  love that guy.  i wish the US had ONE SINGLE POLITICIAN with his clarity and ability to get the message across.

Sat, 06/01/2013 - 16:33 | 3616932 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

you wish for his clarity and ability to represent the Corporation of which he is a Fellow or the ones to take your country out of a trade union?

which reminds me: what is his position on the Transatlantic Trade Pact that Obama and Cameron want? it'd be a bit strange if he would not have noticed that...

meanwhile he enjoys being a MEP that represents his voters by abstaining on everything, as far as I'm informed. is this what convinces you? his voting record?

Sat, 06/01/2013 - 19:01 | 3617158 Acet
Acet's picture

Thanks to Nigel Farage I can come here to ZH and see that there are still suck... err ... people that believe that words speak louder than actions - in this world.

Give the man a pint - he's providing a public service.

Sat, 06/01/2013 - 19:58 | 3617261 nasdaq99
nasdaq99's picture

he sees clearly enough that he can tell that the EU is becoming a fascist dictatorship that pushes it's people into the gutter to prevent their banks from collapsing.  he sees well enough that he can see that it WILL FAIL and therefore the sooner the better.  this summer you will watch a struggle in your joke of an EU and when the group "SCREW THE TROIKA" in portugal shuts down the country again in July and riots pop up everywhere, you will get to watch your EU socialists go from socialist to fascist if they hope to put it down.  Beppe Grillo will be waiting to take italy out of the euro soon enough.  New Dawn is gaining strength in greece with a freaking swasitka for an emblem!  how bad does it have to get before the people of europ decide that , yeah, the damn thing is broken?

Sun, 06/02/2013 - 03:49 | 3617803 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

are you fearing or cheering the Far Right?

Sun, 06/02/2013 - 10:56 | 3618092 thatthingcanfly
thatthingcanfly's picture

There is no such thing as the "Far Right." One either wants Western Civ to survive, or he does not. Within that context, "far" or "extreme" have no meaning, except to the culture-destroying leftists who wish to mischaracterize those who want the West to survive the leftist attacks.

Sun, 06/02/2013 - 15:21 | 3618569 nasdaq99
nasdaq99's picture

nicely said thing,

the political spectrum is not really a flat line like most think.  it's a circle that comes together like in greece where the far right and the far left come together to push out the middle, the status quo.  the EU is dying and the faster they fail, the better for the people but sadly, they have to much engrained status quo to let it go until it implodes.  at least Farage recognizes the futility of a common currency in a totally uncommon group of people.  it will have to end very badly before it will be fixed, i fear.  it would take a Powerful lot of bribes to get anybody to join the EU after the disaster they are witnessing, but that too is happening. 

Sat, 06/01/2013 - 17:29 | 3617013 Bring the Gold
Bring the Gold's picture

Look for agent provocateurs to do exactly what you are talking about which will in turn justify the enforcement of a green zone around things like the ECB.

Sun, 06/02/2013 - 09:39 | 3617994 Vendetta
Vendetta's picture

at least someone besides pussy-riot is yelling at the root source of the problem in the world financial markets and economies

Sat, 06/01/2013 - 15:28 | 3616856 Burt Gummer
Burt Gummer's picture

These are just as good as cash, These are IOU's!

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=deuC8GPr31A

Sat, 06/01/2013 - 14:37 | 3616757 JeremyWS
JeremyWS's picture

but they said there was a recovery.....

Sat, 06/01/2013 - 17:37 | 3617034 GeezerGeek
GeezerGeek's picture

Recoveries once were measured in months. How did we get to where they're measured in decades? And will any of us readers be alive then to check the prognostications?

Sat, 06/01/2013 - 14:36 | 3616759 IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

...if there still is an Italy by that time.

Sat, 06/01/2013 - 14:39 | 3616767 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

"Holy Roman Empire." Move along...

Sat, 06/01/2013 - 14:38 | 3616769 sunny
sunny's picture

Makes you wonder who will be the chair of the Fed of the US government by then?  If there is a Fed.  If there is a US government.  Just wondering.

sunny

Sat, 06/01/2013 - 14:40 | 3616772 Totentänzerlied
Totentänzerlied's picture

"the level of real wages will never recover."

This honesty is refreshing.

Sat, 06/01/2013 - 14:52 | 3616802 wee-weed up
wee-weed up's picture

They need to take a hint from Obama...

Lie your ass off!

Sat, 06/01/2013 - 22:25 | 3617516 wee-weed up
wee-weed up's picture

I see the resident Obama apologist is shitting in the punchbowl and running away without comment yet again.

Sat, 06/01/2013 - 14:44 | 3616782 Edward Fiatski
Edward Fiatski's picture

Oh, boy.

Another confirmation of a HOT Summer - Friday Italy posted Quarterly Unemployment Rate at 11.9% vs. 11.2% exp & 11.4% prev (Rev from 11.2%)

No one is lending, no one is hiring, no one is (re-)investing.

Good job!

Sat, 06/01/2013 - 15:28 | 3616855 PontifexMaximus
PontifexMaximus's picture

But still having a hard time to get a parking lot for ur car in Rome, Milan, Florence etc.

Sat, 06/01/2013 - 15:58 | 3616887 Edward Fiatski
Edward Fiatski's picture

That's the increasing inventory. :-)

Sat, 06/01/2013 - 14:46 | 3616783 Seeking Aphids
Seeking Aphids's picture

Return to full productivity in 3 years! There you have it.....we are fully productive with highunemployment.........time to reconsider the social contract......people  need to be paid for being productive in other senses - parents are productive, for example. As are artists and gardeners. They should be paid for their efforts to make our lives more beautiful and for raising children....unrealistic you say? So we should just keep paying huge salaries/bonuses to bankers, ceo's and politicians - all of whom are vital to society, right?

Sat, 06/01/2013 - 14:51 | 3616794 Rimon
Rimon's picture

Does anyone really take 63yr predictions seriously? It's hard enough to have confidence 3yrs out.. Plus whenever a union whines they always have an incentive to sound dire to shakedown some concessions from policy makers.. Put this "prediction" into ignore basket

Sat, 06/01/2013 - 16:34 | 3616934 max2205
max2205's picture

Like 100 year bonds? 

Sat, 06/01/2013 - 22:24 | 3617519 fxrxexexdxoxmx
fxrxexexdxoxmx's picture

+ 100

Sun, 06/02/2013 - 09:42 | 3617997 Vendetta
Vendetta's picture

what they were really saying was there will be no employment recovery till everyone but the very youngest are dead.

Sun, 06/02/2013 - 23:21 | 3619474 Almost Solvent
Almost Solvent's picture

Says the piece of shit troll named Rimon.  Go back to the cunt you crawled out of.

Sat, 06/01/2013 - 14:56 | 3616798 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Thing is... just look back at what happened in the last 63 years... ya think the next 63 years are gonna be more or less eventful?? Your predictions that far out are worthless... but eh, it just shows the union mindset... if we say that's what's gonna be... that's what's gonna happen! Why? Because I said so! I'm from the union! I'm GOD!!

Sat, 06/01/2013 - 16:39 | 3616805 timbo_em
timbo_em's picture

Sorry but this prediction is outright ridiculous and their PhD-eCONomist should be fired asap. According to my seasonally-adjusted excel numbers it will be in Q1 of 2074.

Sat, 06/01/2013 - 16:58 | 3616964 Village-idiot
Village-idiot's picture

I think you're being a little too optimistic.

Sun, 06/02/2013 - 09:44 | 3618000 Vendetta
Vendetta's picture

my excel numbers show Q3 of 2073 but I guess we're just splitting hairs and experiencing rounding errors.

Sat, 06/01/2013 - 14:57 | 3616806 B2u
B2u's picture

and the budget will be balanced by 2176.

Sat, 06/01/2013 - 14:58 | 3616812 foodstampbarry
foodstampbarry's picture

Whatsa madder you? You no like?

Sat, 06/01/2013 - 15:00 | 3616815 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Green shoots...

Sat, 06/01/2013 - 15:03 | 3616818 virgilcaine
virgilcaine's picture

First one who bolts from the shackles wins. As of now they are all on the Eu chain gang for the sake of unity!

Sat, 06/01/2013 - 15:03 | 3616819 Smegley Wanxalot
Smegley Wanxalot's picture

I can hardly wait.

Sat, 06/01/2013 - 15:03 | 3616822 Navymugsy
Navymugsy's picture

When I lived in Sicily in the early 80's unemployment was close to 40%. I guess they exported that model to mainland Italy. What a shame. Great country with great folks but shitty banker butt kissing leadership.

Sat, 06/01/2013 - 15:18 | 3616839 MFLTucson
MFLTucson's picture

Sounds just like the US except we need to collapse this sovereign debt first and we will never be the manufacturing powerhouse with corrupt corporations, gangsters bankers  and babbling idiots like we now have in DC..

Sat, 06/01/2013 - 15:14 | 3616837 MFLTucson
MFLTucson's picture

So soon?

Sat, 06/01/2013 - 15:25 | 3616852 PontifexMaximus
PontifexMaximus's picture

It will even take a 100 years as long as morons such as Camusso and Bonanni are heading the major unions. Never mind il bel paese will move along on the bumby road, even with 50 to 60% youth unemployment, they have hotel mama taking care of them. What to worry about.

Sat, 06/01/2013 - 15:41 | 3616869 Jena
Jena's picture

Really, what's the hurry?

Sat, 06/01/2013 - 15:23 | 3616851 Racer
Racer's picture

And they put up with this and not do an Iceland, why?

Sat, 06/01/2013 - 16:51 | 3616954 Village-idiot
Village-idiot's picture

The media would rather ignore Iceland's 6.5% unemployment rate.

It doesn't quite jibe with the message they're trying to indoctrinate the masses with.

Sat, 06/01/2013 - 17:17 | 3616990 tip e. canoe
tip e. canoe's picture

 media would rather ignore Iceland's 6.5% unemployment rate...and that big fat juicy loan they took from the IMF

Sat, 06/01/2013 - 15:36 | 3616865 booboo
booboo's picture

"Dumb and Dumber" The Jim Carey Story

Sat, 06/01/2013 - 16:00 | 3616889 Flatchestynerdette
Flatchestynerdette's picture

Whenever the words "Plan B" are used on this site for whatever reason, I'm reminded of the over the counter, available to 15 year olds pill that let's you go PARTY the night before and then have no 9 month consequences to deal with.

Flip it and you've got Italy. Same premise: No Plan B so their problems will just BALLOON until its way overdue and nobody remembers the genesis of the problem.

 

Sat, 06/01/2013 - 16:14 | 3616901 Rusty Shorts
Rusty Shorts's picture

Year 2076 lmao...more like year 23 stone age or some bullshit like that. why in the hell do financial institutions operate on a 360 day year and the rest of us get fucked for another 5 days in a 365 day year??? 

Sat, 06/01/2013 - 16:23 | 3616925 css1971
css1971's picture

WTF? They barely have any idea what'll happen in 3 years never mind 63.

Sat, 06/01/2013 - 16:30 | 3616930 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Chef Boy-Ar-Dee commercial - 1953

 

This definitely makes Monsanto GM foods look silly and overpriced.

Sat, 06/01/2013 - 16:35 | 3616938 Rusty Shorts
Rusty Shorts's picture

"There have been 4 jobs or activities which Man has engaged in throughout the centuries: Hunter/Gathering, Agriculture, Manufacturing, and Services. What's next? What category can you imagine in which billions of people will be working in the future?

It turns out that there is a final category. It is known as Unemployment.

As Agriculture, Manufacturing, and Services become more efficient in the coming months, workers will have nowhere to go but to the unemployment line. At some point, Man's artificial economic system will necessarily collapse. When that happens, the corporations which produce and deliver food will no longer have an incentive to do so. The cities will suffer great hunger and it will be the end of Man.

The current jobless situation you read about in the news is not an ordinary part of the business cycle. It is the final stretch of the linear trend that began with the birth of our species".

 - Bill Gaede

Sat, 06/01/2013 - 16:56 | 3616961 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

That is the plan. Once everyone is on the unemployed government dole, you will be reclassified for job employment under government discretion. Those who fall short of requirements must go back to school to become certified. Get back in debt bitchez, your government told you so.

Sat, 06/01/2013 - 16:44 | 3616944 Village-idiot
Village-idiot's picture

Crisis? What crisis? We haven't reached the crisis yet!

When the world does reach a crisis that's when people, out of desperation, finally decide that the majority of the politicians over the last 100 years are/were either criminally corrupt or, at best completely incompetent. I'll give them the benefit of the doubt and call them incompetent.

Hopefully the majority will come to the realization that socialism does not work; but only destroys economies. 

Sat, 06/01/2013 - 16:51 | 3616953 q99x2
q99x2's picture

By 20fuckin76 people won't be needed for employment.

Sat, 06/01/2013 - 17:01 | 3616967 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

It’s a good thing. I will be already be in my dirt nap laughing at the demise of society.

Sat, 06/01/2013 - 16:55 | 3616962 Village-idiot
Village-idiot's picture

Hey, no problemo! The debt can be paid off with worthless Euros.

Around that time a cup of coffee will cost about 100 trillion Euros!

 

Sat, 06/01/2013 - 17:01 | 3616972 Village-idiot
Village-idiot's picture

Why not ask a weatherman for a prediction? They're pretty good at predicting the future, about 2-3 days anyway.

But I'd wager any weatherman is better than any union at predictions.

Sat, 06/01/2013 - 17:09 | 3616976 adr
adr's picture

If I save $10k a year for 100 years I'll be a millionaire.

Sun, 06/02/2013 - 09:49 | 3618005 Vendetta
Vendetta's picture

and you'll be able to buy a loaf of bread while the blankfein/dimon ilk sail off in their 170 ft yachts after 3.5 years of "work"

Sat, 06/01/2013 - 17:19 | 3616984 dolph9
dolph9's picture

This is an important point everyone.

Remember, the broken promises are always about the future.

Tomorrow you will be 22 years old and will have hot young women flocking to you (the reality is that tomorrow you will be 50 with a limp dick and a fat wife).  Tomorrow you will be a billionaire (the reality is that tomorrow you will be broke).  Tomorrow will be the best day of your life (the reality is that today is just about as good as it's going to get).

It's always about tomorrow in our modern world.  It's a way for people to avoid the question of tough choices, about how they want to live their life right now.

Sat, 06/01/2013 - 17:36 | 3617028 Tom Green Swedish
Tom Green Swedish's picture

Italy has got to be the biggest pile of shit in Europe.  When are we going to stop giving these party animal pervert ass clowns money?

Sun, 06/02/2013 - 14:25 | 3618478 Non Passaran
Non Passaran's picture

Lecturer of the day: the harmonius Sweden

Sat, 06/01/2013 - 17:41 | 3617047 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

And I'm going to have a threesome with two submissive bi Maxim models any day now...

Sat, 06/01/2013 - 18:11 | 3617098 smacker
smacker's picture

 

 

With good luck and a fair wind, some of them there young Italians may just manage a coupla weeks work before it's time to retire!

Sat, 06/01/2013 - 18:12 | 3617102 bugs_
bugs_'s picture

On a long enough timeline Keynesian policies will succeed!

We've got forever to prove you doubters wrong.

Sat, 06/01/2013 - 18:16 | 3617107 Downtoolong
Downtoolong's picture

I'll buy this after I invest in Goldman's latest securitization of 150 year reverse mortgages.

 

Sat, 06/01/2013 - 20:28 | 3617329 El Hosel
El Hosel's picture

So...  A 17 year old Italian can expect to have a good job by the age of 70. Awesome.

Sun, 06/02/2013 - 02:24 | 3617755 arnoldsimage
arnoldsimage's picture

quit your whining.

Sat, 06/01/2013 - 21:19 | 3617423 PFO
PFO's picture

"disabledvet" hit the nail on the head tho he did it kinda sideways.

"Holy Roman Empire." Move along...

The Great Catholic Monarch sleeps tonight in Central Europe awaiting his entry onto the world's stage and the New World Order will never know what hit them . . .

Sun, 06/02/2013 - 01:44 | 3617735 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

And hopefully by 2076 there won't be any half witted labor unions around to make grade school level comments like these.

Sun, 06/02/2013 - 04:16 | 3617814 dunce
dunce's picture

Communist regimes were fond of trotting out 5 year plans that never worked over and over. The reason they failed was only partly because the planners were communists, the main reason was that they were designed by bureaucrats. Businesses often have long term plans that they achieve or exceed. Rational people do not put forth 10, 20, or more year plans because there are to many uncontrolled variables and they value their credibility.

Sun, 06/02/2013 - 09:51 | 3618007 Vendetta
Vendetta's picture

Or .... we can get rid of the current paradigm of friedmanite economic/monetary philosphy and the intl bankers and politicians that support them and be in a full recovery within 3 years.

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