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And Just In Case Abenomics Fails...

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Whether the Japanese government guessed that the 150% annualized surge in the nominal price of their stocks, or 30% devaluation was unsustainable is questionable, but it seems that 'Plan B' is being created. As The Diplomat notes, finding itself in an increasingly complex and hostile security environment, Japan has taken the first steps towards developing a pre-emptive first-strike capability. This is a controversial move in a region that remains wary of a potential return to Japanese militarism.

 

Via Time:

...

 

The ruling Liberal Democratic Party is compiling a new set of defense guidelines that would allow Japan’s armed forces, for the first time, to develop offensive capability, and to strike first if an attack appears imminent.

 

Under Japan’s strictly pacifist constitution, the Self Defense Force is restricted to weaponry and tactics that are deemed defensive in nature. That means no bombers, no cruise or ballistic missiles, no armed drones - and no shooting until shot at.

 

That could change under the new National Defense Program Guidelines, which are expected to be finished by year’s end.

 

"What they are basically saying is, ‘When a potential enemy has started attacking us, then we would start offensive operations to take out their missiles, as well as their missile bases,’"

 

Via J. Michael Cole of The Diplomat,

Finding itself in an increasingly complex and hostile security environment, Japan has taken the first steps towards developing a pre-emptive first-strike capability. This is a controversial move in a region that remains wary of a potential return to Japanese militarism.

 

Just a few years ago, the idea that the Japan Self-Defense Forces (JSDF) would be given the ability to conduct operations that go beyond “self defense” would have sounded ludicrous, not to mention that offensive capabilities would have contravened a longstanding interpretation of Japan’s pacifist constitution.

 

But North Korea’s continuing belligerence and pursuit of nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles, as well as China’s growing assertiveness and sovereignty claims, both appear to be changing Tokyo’s calculations. Another factor that is now making such ruminations possible is the U.S. “pivot” to Asia, which – though more in the concept stage than an actual policy – has manifested itself more tangibly through Washington’s willingness to reassess the role of JSDF in regional security. The budgetary constraints with which the U.S. military must now conjugate have made burden-sharing all but inevitable. One outcome is Washington is accepting a more muscular defense posture for Japan.

 

Just a few months ago in the wake of North Korea’s third nuclear test, Japan’s defense chief, Itsunori Onodera, said in an interview with Reuters that his country had “the right to develop the ability to make a pre-emptive strike against an imminent attack”, though he added that it had no plans to do so for the time being. Debate on such matters is not new, and usually occurs following a missile or nuclear test by the DPRK. But under Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, the government has shown itself much more willing to stretch interpretations of the constitution, if not to revise it altogether.

 

Less than three months after Onodera’s interview, reports emerged that Tokyo was working on a new defense policy framework that, at its core, made provisions for the development of a first-strike capability. Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) legislator and head of the LDP’s National Defense Division, Yasuhide Nakayama, made the recommendations and said that Pyongyang’s nuclear program and the Chinese intrusions in the disputed East China Sea waters had created an atmosphere where people in Japan felt “extreme anxiety about national security.”

 

LDP officials maintain that pre-emptive strikes would only be carried out when an imminent attack on Japan from a specific site was confirmed. However this policy raises questions about the legality of pre-emptive action and the reliability of intelligence used to assess various scenarios (for example, pre-emption raises the risks and costs of miscalculation). Any move in that direction — which the National Defense Program Guideline, set to be released by the end of 2013, will make clearer — will require Tokyo to reassure its nervous neighbors about a military revival, or “resurgent chauvinist sentiment,” in Japan. Another important question to ask is whether a policy of pre-emption would extend to Japan’s security allies as well.

 

There is little information on the type of capability the JSDF would seek to carry out such operations, though a ballistic and/or cruise missile component, perhaps something akin to Taiwan’s Hsiung Feng IIE land-attack cruise missile, is not unfeasible. Former Japanese defense minister and the second highest-ranking member in Abe’s LDP, Shigeru Ishiba – along with a growing number of Japanese politicians – seem to favor the development of long-range cruise missile technology.

 

The new defense policy framework seems to focus primarily on North Korea and the threat that its missiles pose to Japan, South Korea and U.S. bases in the region. However, China also likely figures in their plans — including scenarios involving DF-15 and/or DF-16 ballistic missile attacks against U.S. bases in Okinawa. The risks involved in pre-emptive strikes in Chinese territory are much greater, however, especially considering China’s increasingly formidable air defense systems.

 

Unless there is a dramatic shift in Tokyo or in Japan’s security environment, the current context seems highly conducive to the emergence of a more assertive JSDF. A pre-emptive capability is one component, and a highly controversial one at that. Whether it would increase or undermine Japan’s security remains to be seen, and will in part be contingent on how Tokyo handles the political repercussions of such a move.

 

 

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Mon, 06/03/2013 - 20:05 | 3621977 Stuck on Zero
Stuck on Zero's picture

Time to start a "Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere."


Mon, 06/03/2013 - 20:21 | 3622013 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

Nah, everyone seems to think this will be a repeat of the past leading to the path of conquest. The first strike most likely will be aimed and the bond vigilantes.

Tue, 06/04/2013 - 02:00 | 3622043 philipat
philipat's picture

Its heartwarming the way our Central Bankers learn from eachother.

Abenomics explained:

1. Flood market with JPY to weaken JPY and target 2% inflation

2.Oops, Bond holders think that 0.25% yield is not that attractive with 2% inflation. Bonds sell off and yields rise rapidly, putting pressure on Japan's ability to pay interest on the existing debt.

3.Divert the newly printed JPY to buy Bonds, thus Bonds rally, yields come down and JPY strengthens back below 100.

4. Go back to #1 (Above) but this time with more debt and a larger CB Balance sheet.

 

Wow, what a surprise this all is. Yawn.........................

Tue, 06/04/2013 - 02:26 | 3622760 All Risk No Reward
All Risk No Reward's picture

The bond vigilantes (the Money Power, if you will), hijacked Japan's government a long time ago.  They are the bond vigilantes.

The game is for the dElites to bankrupt the world's chumptocracies and effect authoritarian rule over those they don't chose to kill off with their militarized police forces and bio-weapons.

Mon, 06/03/2013 - 20:06 | 3621981 HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

Long flame-thowers.

Mon, 06/03/2013 - 21:01 | 3622121 Chief_Illiniwek
Chief_Illiniwek's picture

You mean Godzilla and Mothra are players in this too?

Geez....

Mon, 06/03/2013 - 20:14 | 3621991 Whoa Dammit
Whoa Dammit's picture

Today's Dilbert, starring an un-named bearded nobel prize winning economist. Heh.

http://www.dilbert.com/strips/

Mon, 06/03/2013 - 20:14 | 3621995 forwardho
forwardho's picture

Japans entry into WWII was an economic decision,

They are well and truly fucked.

No energy.

No raw materials.

No money for the pretty, pretty things.

0--------> TORA! TORA! TORA!

Mon, 06/03/2013 - 20:23 | 3622020 DeliciousSteak
DeliciousSteak's picture

-If you fail, try again.

Japanese proverb?

Mon, 06/03/2013 - 21:08 | 3622141 gatorengineer
gatorengineer's picture

Beg to Differ with your third point.  Roppongi has plenty of Russian hookers that are quite decorative....

Mon, 06/03/2013 - 21:38 | 3622260 Non Passaran
Non Passaran's picture

Yes, they were practically forced to engage the US because the US blocked them from importing raw materials.
Which has nothing to do with this topic.

Mon, 06/03/2013 - 20:20 | 3622008 Sutton
Sutton's picture

If they want an offensive capability ,they will have it in weeks. I'm sure it's all on the computers, just waiting to be constructed.

Tue, 06/04/2013 - 08:22 | 3623060 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Send out the Gundam(s)!

Mon, 06/03/2013 - 20:26 | 3622010 Iocosus
Iocosus's picture

Nationalistic Ninjas have been replaced with effeminate emos last I heard. Unless they can find a way to control an F-16 with Dance Dance Revolution, I don't see them starting any wars.

 

 

 

Mon, 06/03/2013 - 21:14 | 3622170 Nue
Nue's picture

Let the power start going out for say 8-10 hours a day because Japan can't afford fuel prices and watch how fast those Emo kids turn.

Mon, 06/03/2013 - 21:21 | 3622194 Iocosus
Iocosus's picture

Nintendo= opiate of the masses

Tue, 06/04/2013 - 05:43 | 3622861 thereisonlyonelaw
thereisonlyonelaw's picture

What do japanese gamers play? If they play enough murder simulators (first person shooters), they are probably better trained and in better psychological condition for war than the WW2 generation.

Tue, 06/04/2013 - 09:09 | 3623176 PT
PT's picture

Re:  "What do japanese gamers play? If they play enough murder simulators (first person shooters), they are probably better trained and in better psychological condition for war than the WW2 generation."

... until they realize that the dead bodies don't just disappear after a minute or two ... and you don't have a second life or an instant medical kit ... and that injuries hurt ... and there are different types of injuries, not just "dead" and "alive" ... or has it been too long since I last played a FPS?

Sat, 06/15/2013 - 08:11 | 3660587 PT
PT's picture

... and they'll get most distressed when they find they have limited ammo and can't reload just by shooting off the screen ...

 

Mon, 06/03/2013 - 20:24 | 3622024 Impotent_Smurf
Impotent_Smurf's picture

Is there a stock option for Banzai suicide bombers?

Mon, 06/03/2013 - 20:26 | 3622027 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

War on drugs winning :

4 women cartel members beheaded in Mexico...

http://www.elblogdelnarco.com/2013/06/video-fuerte-en-donde-los-zetas.html

Mon, 06/03/2013 - 20:43 | 3622066 PiltdownMan
PiltdownMan's picture

Bye Bye Abe.

Mon, 06/03/2013 - 20:48 | 3622081 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Unfortunately... opinion polls (from June 2) show that Abe is likely to gain seats in the house of councillors on July 11... unless Japan's markets really are wiped out before then.

Mon, 06/03/2013 - 20:43 | 3622067 BigInJapan
BigInJapan's picture

The answer to your question is Mitsubishi. They make pretty much all the Japanese bangbang stuff. They also run the ostensibly peaceful 'space program". . .

Long Mitsubishi - and long live the zaibatsu?

Mon, 06/03/2013 - 20:58 | 3622113 knukles
knukles's picture

+ bazirrions for zaibatsu

Mon, 06/03/2013 - 20:46 | 3622069 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

The Japanese are not to be trifled with. Hell all they would have to do is chunk canisters of nuke waste at their enemies. They have like a million tons of it.

Mon, 06/03/2013 - 21:07 | 3622138 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

They will print and print and print....... then they will take us to war.

~ Marc Faber 2009

Mon, 06/03/2013 - 21:11 | 3622148 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Didn't I hear something about the Japanese going to devalue their currency earlier in the year?

When are they supposed to do that?

I bought my first silver with BitCoin today. Now let's see if the ship comes in. Actually they won't need a very big ship. Just a test this time.

Mon, 06/03/2013 - 21:14 | 3622169 Suraj Corominas
Suraj Corominas's picture

So in an increasingly unstable world security environment and several belligerant neighbors, Japan wants... a normal military like every other country in the world has? Sounds quite prudent to me.

Mon, 06/03/2013 - 21:33 | 3622239 Wakanda
Wakanda's picture

Only the dumbest or most deluded will pick up arms to fight against other countries.  Darwin awards for every flag draped coffin!

Mon, 06/03/2013 - 21:39 | 3622261 kito
kito's picture

what japan recognizes is quite simple.....the erosion of u.s. influence in chinas backyard............and by the time the collapsed u.s. empire completely pulls out of asia by 2020, japan hopes they will have some independent means of protecting themselves............

Tue, 06/04/2013 - 00:04 | 3622634 dark pools of soros
dark pools of soros's picture

and we can only hope the same goes for that parasitic country in the middle east

Mon, 06/03/2013 - 21:42 | 3622275 expiredeternity
expiredeternity's picture

Currency wars...meet shooting wars.

Mon, 06/03/2013 - 21:44 | 3622279 Non Passaran
Non Passaran's picture

WTF is this article about?

It's incredible that Japan as a sovereign nation does not have the ability to defend itself the way other countries do.

The only ones that benefit for the current arrangement are US kleptocrats (the government and the military-industrial-financial complex).

Mon, 06/03/2013 - 23:11 | 3622533 jonjon831983
jonjon831983's picture

Define defend itself the way other countries do.

 

They do have substantial defensive capabilities.  Offensive to take them off the island is lacking... until that is they get rid of that pesky article in their post-ww2 Constitution.

Mon, 06/03/2013 - 21:58 | 3622337 Bloody Chiclitz
Bloody Chiclitz's picture

If what was protecting me from PRC and DPRK was Obama's willingness to back me up, I'd be building missiles as fast as I could.

Tue, 06/04/2013 - 12:23 | 3623747 Chaos_Theory
Chaos_Theory's picture

They'll be the nation to build the T-1000.  They're world-class with robots, and can just deviate from perfecting the Sex-bot for a few years. 

Mon, 06/03/2013 - 23:08 | 3622528 jonjon831983
jonjon831983's picture

Didn't they say there is no plan b?

 

Oohhh wait... that was some guy in the ECB.

Tue, 06/04/2013 - 07:27 | 3622927 Flagit
Flagit's picture

do NOT flip the switch in japan.

if the video games stop, the war starts.

japan was home to the first online game community murder.

one man killed another over the theft of.....a virtual knife.

an unique and rare item in a video GAME.

the friend sold it for roughly $500 at an online auction and the original "owner" plunged a very REAL knife into the "thief's" chest.

offhand i think this is what sparked the debate over virtual property rights in japan.

go find some hardcore gamers. the addiction is worse than heroine. cut off their access and watch the sparks fly. 140 lb people will scream, shout, cry, and threaten, just before they attack you.

think im fucking joking? i found myself slumped against a wall, pawing at a locked door which was suddenly and intentionally blocking my access to internet. i had just spent $200 on phone cables to reach the outlet i wasn't suppose to have access to(pre-wifi). i had spent the last 3 years trying to tailor my life to shut out all forms of responsibility, family, and friends because all those things are competitors for my game time. it hurts when it all comes crashing down at once and you realize its just a fucking waste of time.

i still play. real games though. much more fun. Game of Thrones :)

Tue, 06/04/2013 - 08:24 | 3623065 shovelhead
shovelhead's picture

An invasion force of Japanese Emos with pink Hello Kitty backpacks is actually kind of frightening.

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