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Stocks Ignore Horrible Economic Data, Surge On Tuesday Frontrunning
With JPY losing 100 and the Nikkei futures trading down to a 19.25% loss from the highs (12815 the dreaded bear-market 20% drop level), a combination of a desperate Japanese 2015 plan for the pension fund to buy moar stocks, bad-is-good economic data, and front-running of the now-ubiquitous Tuesday rally provided the ammo for a rally in equities - recovering almost 50% of their post Friday drop losses. Risk-assets in general correlated extremely closely on the day and while volume was well above average, this was driven by the surge to the downside (not the upswing). Treasuries ended the day unchanged (amid a 12bps range on the day) ending near the low yields (moar QE). VIX snapped above 17.5% (its highest in 6 weeks) before fading back in the ramp to unchanged at 16.25%. Credit tracked stocks closely but was less exuberant in the late-day ramp. USD weakness (JPY and EUR strength) supported commodities, with gold and silver outperforming on the day (up 1.65% and 2.2% respectively).
A 50% retracement in the S&P... 330 Ramp Capital came right on time to lift us to the 50% retrace... (and it is worth noting that blocks were large as we rose - suggesting professionals selling into the momentum ignition)...
and how did the Nikkei do?
While everyone is celebrating at today's recovery, sectors remain a little aghast with Staples leading the way from the Friday drop...
and across JPY, Gold, and 10Y correlations changed a few times...
Credit markets saw high yield lagging stocks today (not what you would expect if this was BTFD ramp) with investment grade credit well bid (up-in-capital-structure preference not exactly bullish).
Equities went a little turbo into the close - accelerating well beyond the rest of risk - as they seemed desperate to get to the 50% retrace... As Capital Context's CONTEXT model shows - the risk-asset relationships remained tight most of the day...
Charts: Bloomberg and Capital Context
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I have a feeling this is going to be the best Tuesday ever!
I agree...if you are short.
I'm actually very tall, does that mean you disagree?
Place your bets boyz...red or black ?
Doesn't really matter, it will be the wrong choice either way.
correct...everybody forgets those double zeros.
What's it going to be, black or red? 00 green, you all lose bitchez.
Fuck this shit. Tuesday is now MONDAY fuckers! ... and 3 months from now Monday will become FRIDAY fuckers!
At least I took another $250 from JP Morgan this morning on their idiotic price action (both ways). Fuck you Dimon! And fuck that bitch Blythe Masters!
Ask yourself: Just how liquid am I?
Thanks to Depends, not very.
Brave.
http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/tot_operation_schedule.html
Well, one of these Tuesdays they'll have to shake the snowglobe and leave all the 'Go all-in Tuesdays it's guaranteed up day' crowd whipsawed and broke.
Maybe not tomorrow, but one of these Tuesdays the sheeple will be sheared.
I'll bet -
we rally to 1646 (20dma), up to 1650'ish (downtrend line from peak...4th hit), maybe wick above and then look out below as Tuesday becomes a big reversal day. Draw shorts in as support taken out in the next couple a days before an urgent buyer shows up again by Thursday or Friday. Tactical short from 1650 to 1597 makes sense...but beyond that...
There simply is no shortage of "money on the sidelines" (ESF/FED) to pump assets up, PM's down, and bonds into negative yields.
....and that was how much on black ?
funny thing is I see things real well when I have nothing riding on it...
+ 1,000
I have that feeling too, sucking in a few more bystanders before the sure thing Tuesday finally fails.
I've had that feeling before though and usually been wrong
btfd
tuesday POMO not especially large... Thursdays on the other hand... well thats different. I think 5 extra large...
No taper this month... Breakout this week... BTD... I mean, read lots of different analyst opinions, and also perform your due diligence through fundamental analysis \sarc...
Tuesday, bitchez !
I don't believe the market will close higher tomorrow. So now, you can laugh at me if it does. Overall, there were more decliners than advancers today; The poor hedge fund managers don't know what to do; and they tend to buy the averages when they feel optimistic; I think that's what we saw today; along with typical first of the month 401K index plans making their required investments.
put me down for red tomorrow too.
Carry on! Well, it's you and me against the consensus fonzannoon. Oh, I need to specify what I'm betting on; the S&P500.
Clearly black tomorrow, slight red Wed, breakout Thur... Here we go....
Spin the wheel !; and may Lady Luck smile on me. I shouldn't admit it; but I actually like playing Roulette; I did it twice; once in Reno, and once in Las Vegas. Fun!. and not too damaging.
Better cover those puts on a weak open, i will. After about 10:30 we will only be going up. Reinstate at about 3:30 pm and go play golf.
Yeah I agree. I did not see anything today in the S&P that made me think this rally was anything other than some people jumping in front of happy Tuesday. It's garbage.
but markets are now powered by the awesome discovery of the 60's - FLUBBER
Who'd of thunk stawks would ramp into the close...color me surprised.
Twas a thing of beauty!
That's how you do it! That's how you manipulate a market! What a F***ing joke! Someone end this insanity...
bullish!! time to short! oh, wait...
'Tuesday's Child is full of grace.'
Tuesday's markets are full of shit.
(Let's see if I have this straight: bad news is good news because of the Fed, except before 11:30 on a down Europa day when it's bad news, but not after 2:00 on a Monday because of the Tuesday Effect -- aw, Christ I give up ...)
Leftovers'(unspent POMO)from Friday.
{ @! 21}
Ben Jones Industrial Average simply cannot go down
"BAD is GOOD....and worse is better!"
Nouriel Roubini
Nevermind everything! We got FREE MONEE coming in 12 hours! Buy NOW or be a sucka!
there is no way this stock rally is ending this year.....dow will hit 16,000 and beyond.......the masses are not casting wary eyes on the u.s. yet.................with europes mess still on mainstream radar, the u.s. horse wont be sent to the glue factory until 2015....until then.....play ball!!!!!!!!!!!!!!.....................................
I don't remember Roubini being such a complete fucking retard. He has lost his mind.
He has not lost his mind. He has sold out. Like many others.
His job is to let people know the fed will be there until 2017. So it's safe to play around today.
Well, I didn't junk kito for saying that. Who really knows anymore? We are years past what I thought possible.
The USS Titanic is rudderless and out to sea. Who knows when and where she crashes and breaks up on the rocks.
me neither. Kito is a good dude. He is taking one for the team. Letting everyone vent at him. That is my guess anyway.
thanks fonz......perhaps if i had stated "this fucking sham of shit market will continue its unjustifiable climb upwards"..........i wouldve received many more green arrows............I DIDNT TAKE THE RED PILL ANTIDOTE!!!! I SWEAR!!!!!!!
dup
bay, yes, nobody has a crystal ball as to when this country begins the next acute phase downward in its terminal decline..........but there are just too many mutual fund/hedge managers who believe there is absolutely no way things dont go UP from here............they TRULY believe in dalios deleveraging.............that it just takes more from the fed to shoulder the problems until the u.s. gets totally solid footing.......and i know some of them.......and if thats the prevailing attitude, big money will continue to pour into the u.s.......japan is worrisome, europe is worrisome....but nobody is taking bets that the u.s. equity market will tank anytime in the near future.........look at gold...............its a friggin pariah...........the world will continue to pour into u.s. equities...i stand by what i say........................im standing by my 2015 call..........................
You had me right up until "look at gold...its a friggin pariah".
LOL...
edit: mainstream media pariah..............
Roubini took out a loan to pay for an expensive condo while his company crashes and burns. His change of tactic is really just the normal convulsions of a NYC debt slave.
He has a record of badmouthing Gold; and he's been sensationally wrong so-far. It's not a subject conventional economists have any feel for.
What is the over/under on how many ZH'ers lost their mind today?
My guess is 11
Count me in Fonz. The intraday Vix reversal was hardcore.
WHAT?!
ZHix is saying Turbo tuesday closes down?
20/21?
All youve gone mad.
Does screaming at CNBS on the radio while driving, and almost throwing up in my mouth qualify as "losing it"?
I think you have given us the line. Yes let's go with that. Screaming at CNBS while almost throwing up is the line.
Going over the line would be doing all that, crying in shower for fifteen minutes, then coming out and buying the close. That's losing it.
If that's already the 90% red line losing it, I buy 11.
http://www2.2space.net/images/upl_news/120928/432596/full/netanyahu-says...
Well, I lost a pile in the morning, but in the afternoon I changed horses and lost a bunch more.
I'm in the 11 I believe.
It is hilarious how we or rather some dopeheads are cocky about the US market - considering it is doped to the bone and deeper.
I bet many european countries look at the complete MadMan Shalom Bernanke and thinking, "what if we did the same?"
http://flic.kr/p/enJ7Cs
All the pro's are doing blow in the hamptons...interns runnimg the show and they just know how to swing trade...
DJIA looks like its going to 20K.
Looked that way in 2007 too.
Yes; of course. It's always necessary to remind people of that. All markets reverse when opptimism reaches a maximum.
It's definitely going to with a weaker dollar....
Price it in gold or silver and it will not seem so impressive,
Yes; as I posted here a few days ago; it's a actually a lie; or propaganda, to say that the S&P500 made a new high; because it represents values in Dollars; and 2013 dollars don't buy what 2007 dollars bought. It's very important to get used to thinking this way; Just like the $40/oz. price of Silver a while ago didn't have the same meaning as the forty $40/oz. price in early 1980.
I like to remind myself that the Zimbabwe Stock Market went up 30,000%; but it didn't do the people trapped in their currency much good. Actually, it didn't do them any good at all. The same will be true here. It's already true; but it's unpleasant, so people tend to ignore it; most people think their stock market accounts are "back to where they were"; they aren't. They just aren't; and only a sort of deliberate blindness makes these statements possible; or in many cases; just plain stupidity.
Fuck that, dow 20 BEEELion
Why the banker does not use the money from POMO to short the market and even make more money?
(because everyone expect (BTFD) the market to go up with as much free money)
Probably after Bernanke retires...
they do, but much like "highlander", there can on be one left when the music stops...
Dont' worry about the Prop. trading desks at the Banks; they're professionals. I'm not the only one holding short contracts on the S&P500; there are almost 100,000 of us. They know how to go short; never fear. And yes, they probably will be doing it with my and your money; which smarts, but there's no help for it.
"Studies have shown that when the stock market closes higher every Tuesday for months the economy grows at a stronger pace." BenSBernanke,PhD
the world has decided that debt is asset...who can argue with that virtuous insight as it makes charity a primal virtue?
Debt forgiveness!
God celebrates the charitable by pushing the merchants out of the temple. He does not differentiate between scammed profit belonging on paper to the greedy signed by the needy and the debt incurred by them who are condemned to pay interest beyond their means.
I recite that well!
Forget the accountants who bean count; they are an inferior breed; like bankers.
Even CNBS's regular talking head Art Cashin sounded weary of this "rally" stating that he'd prefer a strong economy to all this Fed watching. Of course Piss-ani was his usual perma-bullish self. Would love to give both of these guys a swift kick to the nutsack!
There were more decliners than risers in price on the NYSM overall. The Sept. S&P500 contract which I'm short from 1660 recorded a high for the day of 1632; and shows a nice downchannel already developed from the recent highs. The Futures market is uniformily less enthusiastic than the cash S&P; with the back months showing a negative premium. I have zero loss stop order in the market; so either a.) I'll lose nothing, or b.) I"ll make money. I took profit on my Silver Contract today at $22.50; or $7500/contract. As this market is badly damaged and will have a very difficult time rallying.
Now Monday is the get in before the up Tuesday trade....21 here we come..it will be the talk of tomorrow..all day long...and from here on out...until it fails..but it won´t be a small fail..it will be a big crash to shut everyone up...
Small gain tomorrow on Tuesday. Notice the pessimistic Fed speak has been scheduled for 8pm tomorrow.
And Lockhart was dovish today when there was no POMO. Conspiracy much ?
It feels like tomorrow will be Black Jack Tuesday and HeliBen just dealt the market an Ace. I have counted the cards and know the 2 and 3 he dealt me are the last two numbered cards in the deck. I wonder if i should buy insurance.
Shits really getting old, smash the vix and rally stocks anytime the dirtyfuckers feel like it.
LADIES AND GENTLEMEN!!!!!!
WELCOME TO TURBO TUESDAY!!!!!!!!!
VARRROOOOOMMMMMMM!!!!!
we don't need no stinkin' macros!!!
Bought the dip this morning, sold in the afternoon.
Completely out of BAC now.
Increasingly uncomfortable, now 60% in cash.
21 bottles of beer on the wall.
21 bottles of beer. If one of those bottles should fall
22 bottles of beer on the wall
Ben Bernanke is a F'N miracle.
He must be wearing Jesus slippers.
21 bottles of beer on the wall.
21 bottles of beer.
I saw one fall
I gave Ben a call
22 bottles of beer on the wall
200 trillion bottles of beer on the wall
200 trillion now empty bottles of beer
I gave Ben a call
but he aint answering at all
Guess they ran out of room on the wall
leaving aside ZERO CREDIBILITY from the Tylers Durden (playing from the short side STILL. YOU'RE ALL DEAD TIMES A TRILLION NOW!!!!! :0oooo) you really have to start understanding the profundity of Ben Bernanke simply allowing Wall Street to take over "the money printing function of the United States of America"...and by extension...the entire planet. OF COURSE THEY'RE BUYING GOLD. OF COURSE THEY'RE BANKRUPTING THE STATE. OF COURSE THEY'RE PULLING THE STRINGS OF ALL THESE CLOWNS IN D.C. WOOOOOOOOO. WILDING! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_qXsO-axQWM
Nobody worries until the US dollar comes crashing down. The Argentina, Zimbabwe moment.
More people on Food stamps, welfare and SS disability. Even illegals are collecting ever increasing freebies, even though their not supposed to.
Until then it's ever increasing POMO and daily parading on the media by Obama and Fed members when the market has any indication of correcting.
It's kinda of like slopping the hogs. Sooie!!! Sooie!!! HERE PIGGY PIGGY PIGGY
Perhaps Chairsatan is sending the message that macroeconomic data is no longer relevant, and the stock markets WILL go up by decree.
Chairsatan plan of action = evil
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F6X9KcrXHwg
FUBAR.
i was actually shocked what happened today.
i had to be away from the computer for most of the day so couldnt really follow market from noon onwards, and when i get back and see the dow gained fucking 138 pts, s&p 10, and nasdaq 10, i puked.
so we have the worst ism number in 4 plus years and this is what happens, a rally that basically wipes away more than 50 percent of fridays losses? its a no fucking brainer, they did this because tomorrow as we all know is tuesday, and they need the global markets green tonight, so what better way to make sure japan and china are green tonight other than rallying sharply late afternoon?
its such a fucking joke. how can they sell it to people that ism contracting is positive?
now japan, unless something happens, which deff can with japan these days, will prob be sharply green, as will china, and then europe, and then of course the u.s. the u.s has to start this bullshit up days again just when it looks like we finally maybe seeing a bear market starting to devlop globally.
how no authorities went to wall st at days end and made arrests is beyond me after the ponzi scheme was as evident as ever today.
on to tomorrow, dow up 200, s&p up 70, nasdaq up 100 on news that our country is going to default and all banks are going under. would only make sense that, that be the news that pushes us to new highs.
I kind of expected that the US markets will start gaining after the initial shock wore off and da playahs prepared for the green Tuesday.
I almost decided to sell short positions and my timing was good (1pm) but I decided against it because by time trade settles markets could be even lower.
It's a fucking circus that's for sure.
When the WSJ quits making excuses for market retardation, we're likely fucked:
"Stocks moved higher as a weaker-than-expected report on manufacturing soothed fears that the Federal Reserve would scale back on its efforts to ease monetary policy."
http://stream.wsj.com/story/markets/SS-2-5/SS-2-244628/
Did none of you guys learn that listening to the firm economist is the quickest way to loose money trading? And trading headlines is the second quickest way. Seriously people.