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The Hindenburg Cluster: 2nd Omen In 3 Days
Despite the mainstream media's desperate need to play down any and every potential indication that all is not well with the "buy the dip" mentality, there is no hiding the fact that volatility is back and nowhere is that more evident in the guts of the Hindenburg Omen calculation. Just as we saw in October 2007, when NYSE margin was just as extended, credit spreads were just as compressed (and today's extreme range), and valuations were just as high, the Hindenburg Omen signals are starting to cluster (in a confirming manner). First on April 15th, second on Friday, and now third today marks the first such cluster since Bernanke saved the day in August 2010. Perhaps for those not running for the hills, UBS' Art Cashin's views are noteworthy, "proponents of the Omen will tell you there has never been a crash without the presence of the Hindenburg Omen. Sounds pretty compelling, indeed. Skeptics, however, note that every occurrence of the Hindenburg Omen has not been accompanied by a crash. In fact, three out of four times, there is no crash. Sounds a lot less compelling now. So, an omen is a caution – not a cause."
Click image for large (eligible) version...
Via Wikipedia:
From historical data, the probability of a move greater than 5% to the downside after a confirmed Hindenburg Omen was 77% [The Wall Street Journal 8/23/2010 article states that accuracy is 25%, looking at period from 1985], and usually takes place within the next forty days. The probability of a panic sellout was 41% and the probability of a major stock market crash was 24%. Though the Omen does not have a 100% success rate, every NYSE crash since 1985 has been preceded by a Hindenburg Omen. Of the previous 25 confirmed signals only two (8%) have failed to predict at least mild (2.0% to 4.9%) declines.
Construction:
- The daily number of NYSE new 52 week highs and the daily number of new 52 week lows are both greater than or equal to 2.8 percent (this is typically about 84 stocks) of the sum of NYSE issues that advance or decline that day (typically, around 3000).[2] An older version of the indicator used a threshold of 2.5 percent of total issues traded (approximately 80 of 3200 in today's market).
- The NYSE index is greater in value than it was 50 trading days ago. Originally, this was expressed as a rising 10 week moving average, but the new rule is more relevant to the daily data used to look at new highs and lows.
- The McClellan Oscillator is negative on the same day.
- New 52 week highs cannot be more than twice the new 52 week lows (though new 52 week lows may be more than double new highs).
- The traditional definition requires each condition to occur on the same day. Once the signal has occurred, it is valid for 30 days, and any additional signals given during the 30-day period should be ignored. During the 30 days, the signal is activated whenever the McClellan Oscillator is negative, but deactivated whenever it is positive.
- Some users of the omen may choose to view the 30 day limit as "working days" and not "calendar days".
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there is no hindenburg, there is only the bernank
the Bernankenburg Clusterfuck - aka US Economy
Today....The Hindenburg
Tomorrow....The Bernankatank
No, I think it was the Titanic that called it an "Iceberg!" Just before their boat sank...
Good thing we trade on fundamentals...oh, wait...
Yeah but Nouriel Roubini sees 2 more years of stock gains: http://www.planbeconomics.com/2013/06/roubini-sees-two-years-of-stock-ga...
Wait...is that a reason to be bullish or bearish?
I agree with Roubini. Stock market crashes happen about every 8 years, so we still have time. As for this Hindenburg Cluster, did you read the Construction model? Archimedes couldn't figure that thing out.
Oh, the humanity! I didn't know turkeys couldn't fly!
Black turkeys only happen in 3's.
Three Hindenburg omens completely offset by one Bilderberger Meeting (another FASB rule).
2 times doesnt matter: "Once the signal has occurred, it is valid for 30 days, and any additional signals given during the 30-day period should be ignored. During the 30 days, the signal is activated whenever the McClellan Oscillator is negative, but deactivated whenever it is positive.[2]"
David Tepper is buying, and he's never wrong (ave 30% a year).
Roubini is an academic. He has no fucking clue when it comes to the stock market imo. In fact I would not be surprised if he hasn't been compromised like everyone else who appears on CNBC.
hahahahahahahahahaha
We have a stock bubble with dashes of Keynesian denial. Hilarious
Look Krugman and Roubini, the USD bid trade is all South America, but more so Asia/China. Yes we have tight liquidity (from some economist perspectives no stock bubble), but crony capitalists have enjoyed the huge amount of free Fed printed $ = stock rally. It is a certainty that retail is NOT in this rally, it's leveraged bubble out of banks, hedge funds with HFTs scalping the MA's
Anyone that comes from the Keynes playbook should hide their heads in shame. Bernanke has be able to boost the wealth of cronies and energy/food inflation for the rest of us, now reliant on Obama's mad attempt at offsetting inflation with more credit and goverment subsidizes.
Also, the China art of war is in full effect. They f*cked Japan's markets nicely of late, Brazil is now on the radar and of course America.
It's a dirty, ruthless and sh*tty world. The trade.? This beast will collapse, when? I dunno, but sooner than two years.
The TA name for flutter, which is the oscillation just before the rupture. Makes sense.
Let's acronym this cocksucker already. Hindenburg Omen Clusterfucks,, HOC's Bitchez!
This stuff is scary..........wait.....I know what to do.......fixed it....monster box silver ordered
Great now it won't work
Delivered by airship?
last time i had to conquer fear and ski off a cliff, i never really thought about pms. I just said to myself, don't be a pussy !
LOL, Exactly!
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/05/10/opinion/krugman-bernanke-blower-of-bubbles.html?_r=0
"So do we have a major bond and/or stock bubble? On bonds, I’d say definitely not. On stocks, probably not, although I’m not as certain."
Krugman has no idea what you're talking about.
USD, biggest bubble around.
There is no Bernank, only Zul.
Go Short.
Buy gold.
Or silver. If you can find any.
Central banks say the winner is gold. Silver may come back up after we sort out the collapse of the monetary system.
I got out of silver in May 2011. It was nice while it lasted but when I realized that not a single economy has used silver as a monetary metal since the 1940s I gave up 'wanting' silver to be 'it'. With gold there are no questions...with silver you are counting on all the people to rise up and demand it....William Jennings Bryan lost that battle 130+ years ago.
Silver is the poor mans gold.
It is 16x more common than gold, in the earth's crust. The prices are roughly $1450 (physical) to $24.10 (price of physical silver per Nucleo Direct). Thats a ratio of 60.
It could possibly increase in the near to midterm. Longterm? The ratio will obviously approach 16 on a long enough time line.
If you assume we will go to a gold standard and then off it again a few years later, then I guess I could justify a bearish view on silver. But at current prices? Its even more attractive than gold.
Or if you're a Boomer you can opt out early.
No, seriously ... g'head.
Here is a thought for you. Obama is set to sign the arms treaty with the UN sometime soon. The problem is he might not have enough votes to ratify it. So he signs it, and Bernanke lets rates rise and bonds fall miserably. This creates a mess for each of the states who is wallowing in debt. All of a sudden you have a bunch of senators willing to ratify the treaty in order to keep the printing presses going. Its out there....but it could be a possibility.
Why not show all the 2010 Hindenburg Clusters? Oh yeah, because the market went up afterward. We're not dummies here. Present the facts and let us decide... don't try hiding the truth with a totally one-sided presentation.
It looks to me like they did point to the occurrences in 2010? Two red arrows and how Jackson Hole (and QE2) saved the day? I think Cashin has it right - the omen is a caution, not a cause... from where I sit, itlooks like factors driving this indicator are basically a way of indicating a market in confusion - which seems quite appropriate.
I'm calling Peak Hindenberg.
Wake me up when the market crashes.
Is LNKD above $100? Is MS still an ongoing enterprise? The fireworks have not even begun.
@CT 3625060
from where I sit, it looks like factors driving this indicator are basically a way of indicating a market in confusion -
it's about money/liquidity leaving the market.....the key metric is whether or not the McClellan Oscillator, a market breadth indicator used to evaluate the rate of money entering/leaving the market and resulting in overbought or oversold conditions, is negative on the same day the indicator flashes.
fed qe ops are taking 'good collateral' out of the repo markets and contracting credit creation while huge treasury borrowings are taking cash/money out of pd/investor accounts..............
Agreed.
Add to that (my opinion, based on what I understand of the the signal) that the Hindenberg Omen only signals confusion in direction after a general market run-up followed by many new individual stock highs and lows being set simultaneously.
It means nobody knows what the fuck is going to happen next after a good upward run. That's as much as you can say about it, I think.
Markets hate uncertainty, so it's not unusual for there to be a downturn after a good run-up when nobody knows what the fuck is going to happen next.
Don't read too much into this "signal." It's wrong at least as often as it's right. It's an inflection point only, in my opinion. The point where there is no clear general market direction so things go off in all sorts of weird directions.
I'd look more at the slow decline in EPS, the radical disconnect between the ACTUAL economic numbers (for MONTHS now!) vs. the bizarre "the economy is improving" meme in the MSM and the spooky talk of Fed "tapering" before I'd rely on the highly dubious "Hindenberg Omen" to read the tea leaves.
It wouldn't take much to turn things around. Like the Fed stepping up and saying "we were wrong, the economy is weak so we're going to step up and do $100B in QE per month" and this Hindenberg Omen would be blown right into the weeds.
blown all to shit!
It is theoretically possible for those with unlimited financial resources and minimally regulated automated trading systems to keep the omen from triggering. This has been postulated by the creator of the "Vergulde Draeck" Omen
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hindenburg_Omen
The "Vergulde Draeck" Omen (FOREX, USD, CHF, NZD ...)
OH, THE HUMANITY!
OH THE "why the hell won't this damn thing crash already"!!!
breaking: witnesses report a giant bag of fascist hot air colliding with the NYSE
must be the Hydrogen, encased in varnish and alumina to keep them sneaky H2z in their assigned locations. "No Leaking There!!!!"
No event will sink the Hindenberg.
- Ned
{"Oh, the Humanity"--wonderin' if the outcome will be triggered by nasty static electricity}
Previous omens prior to manipulation Ben well there wasn't any of that going on it in the market either............. Lots of fundamentals and danger signs no longer apply in the new normal. Doesn't mean there isn't danger but the manipulation is just playing Wimpy J. Wellington being able to run up the bill higher than he should with a low to no fico score.
Smart money took their profits. This correction should wipe out what's left of retail.
Long CNY, as all indicators point to a gold standard, and they have all the gold.
Saving retail (transaction fees, not necessarily account holders) is what's behind repeated small AM pull-backs and reassuring late-day ramps.
The recent modus operandi includes cheery end-of-day headlines and harvesting shorts rather than skinning the entire muppet neighborhood.
Any big down move will be a sign that central banks, HFT, or other modern control mechanisms are losing control.
They took a page from Temple Grandin - keep the heard calm to reduce process loss. Limit understanding to only those at the front of the line getting head-bolted (Corzined), plus a few ZH outliers reading unauthorized material.
It's ludicrous how news sensitive the markets are now. When Draghi or Bernanke speak, the forex market goes nuts. To make money, you need a quick finger or a good algorithim. I guess forensic analysis is pointless due to price distortion. From now on, I am going against my instinct.
FYI, most millionaires I know are sitting on mostly NY muni bonds (way above par) and always looking for more, but there is nothing close to par with a 3% coupon. Have not heard much from Meredith Whitney lately, but as history shows, if it becomes fashionable, know that its end is near.
Is there any Hindenbergs in the 33 year long treasury bull (shit) market ?
sigh
Five year "bull" market built on a cluster of Federal Folly is CAUSE.
Even a flaming exploding tube of hydrogen will not stop the Bernanke. Besides, hydrogen is found naturally in the environment so no amount of it can be bad for you.
Cool.
So all those H-Bombs would just give us a nice tan.
Phew, was worried about it for a few years.
Good for plants.
And cockroaches!
Oh my.
Slam and dunk.
What a burn.
Please give detail where H2 is found naturally here on earth thanks.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biohydrogen.
Gasoline doesn't occur naturally, by the way, and it's byproduct would not exist naturally in the atmosphere but for refinement. You are welcome.
You know that H2 is the most common element in the entire fucking galaxy, right? (And by far, at that.)
I think today's market miss, despite the Terrific Tuesday Buying Jamboree, is a clever ruse by the Chairman of Bernankistan to show the market is not reliant on POMO. Expect some unexpected good news that sends the market through the roof, perhaps that Obama has a rare condition in which Jobs are shooting out of his ass.
+1 "shooting out of ass" awesome. lol
The only thing shooting out of Barry's a** these days is Mooschelle's strap-on when there's an unexpected knock at the door...
Thanks for the crippling visual that will last a lifetime ;-)
Gasbags everywhere.
SAFETY WARNING:
DO NOT ATTEMPT TO INFLATE WITH HYDROGEN OR FIAT.
Bernake inflated by fiat- Hindenburg by hydrogen. Separated at birth, reunited at the crash.
And now bond funds are going down the drain fast in case you haven't checked. Time to bail?
I want the crash. Period.
I've wanted the crash shortly after QE1.....sold out on my Bovespa, then STARtedSTACKIN'!
Buford T. Justice liked to use Hindenburg Sauce when he "bobbycued your ass to molasses" Mr short seller.
Buford T. Justice: "What we're dealing with here is a complete lack of respect for the law."
"What we have here is failure to communicate"
The Captian in Cool Hand Luke
"The god damn Germans got nothin' to do with it"
Also odd how vix keeps ramping up. Bernank gotta be sweating right about now. Or not. Crash means he can match those pesky Japanese in the race to zero.
"they" need to bring down the market a bit otherwise it will be near impossible to ramp the market for the annual thanksgiving and santa-clause rally. The BTFD'ers will likely get crushed for next couple month. STFB'ers will likely gain momentum. And just about when all the BTFD'ers find new religion in STFB the market will turn slaughtering all the STFB'ers. One thing is certain, the S&P will end the year in green but not by 20%.
"The trouble with being a cynic these days is it is so much work to keep up."
––Lily Tomlin
Maybe there really is an economic collapse approaching, within the next 12 months. It will be interesting.
Benny will gladly bazooka any Hindenburgs. The market cannot go down while eternal QE is propping it up. Benny has more bucks than the market knows; in fact a never ending supply. There are just too many buy the dippers who will buy anything because some guru, stock-jock or news mouthpiece says it's OK. Listening to the parade of brains on CNBC, the market has only upside and everything is a buy.
Better way to go than hindenburg
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pdXnFBlo0EQ
Double, secret Hindenburg, sir?
Is this bullish?
Got to admit, I don't understand the Omen chart.
Fuck. Me neither man!
It will make your hair hurt to map it out, including reverse-engineering the McClellan Oscillator (sort of the "flux capacitor" of the HO). The omen basically trips when a number of surging stocks are levitating the market at the same time a large mass of stocks are running for cover, suggesting a pronounced "overbought" bias in market sentiment. Repeated sightings is an indication that the push-pull between the new highs and new lows is sustaining itself, meaning the underlying deeply bearish sentiment is not going away.
I find that after a couple of single malts it all seems to not matter a whole lot...
Should be changed to the Titanic Omen: The unsinkable economy (eerrr), stock markets, barrels ahead full speed, meanwhile most everyone aboard, including the capitan (eerr), Bernanke, is oblivious to the iceberg dead ahead, even after being warned of the iceberg threat. "It could never happen to us". By the way, there won't be enough life boats!
...'cept the Titanic didn't have Dr. the Bernank to print a new hull.
but was it the titanic??
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c6kefNLykPY
There is more intelligence (read: awareness) in play now, so it is, in fact, different this time.
Now there is the awareness that there's nowhere else to go.
Levitation is a much better Sentiment-Driven (fear) plan... and who wants to shake it(?)
Pffft. We are a pathetic lot.
I like charts n all, but, fuck. really!? none of that shit is predictive. just a bunch of technical coincidental bullshit bunk. Its like. "holy fuck the Hindenburg Omen." and then a total disappointment and an associated loss of money lol. How about the sputnik cross....thats when (1) 50% of the market takes a shit by more than the other 50% rises, (2) market is marked by 3 gravestone dodgies in 3 days in a row, (3) my wife has her period (on the 3rd dodgie day otherwise the sputnik omen is disqualified), (4) there is no beer in the fridge, and (5) the Leafs make it to the finals. the Sputnik Omen. you heard it here first.
I'd like to personally thank the Make-Me-Laffs for waking up the B's. I hope the ice-mopping of the Pens continues and Syd the Kid can take his crying to the golf course.
Should be changed to the: WOODROW WILSON SELLOUT IMATRAITEROUSBITCH prediction.....
Hah, Hindenburg. Bernanke will inhale that hindenburg gas like a martian, and then fart it out in a melody of green glowing waves of tranquility.
Why the hell are Japs flying a German airship? Yen Called Drag on Delta as United Feels Currency Pain - Bloomberg
The only thing that takes Bernanke's, Evan's, Dudley's and Yellen's game away is a collapse of the US dollar.
That's when they loose control very quickly, otherwise it's game on as usual.
Screw the Hindenberg. This is intentional. This is Bernanke's Hiroshima. Blankfein's Nagasaki. And just to cover it up. This just out from GS via CNBC:
European firms face a "mass employee exodus" over the next three years as the economy in the euro zone recovers and workers search for better opportunities, new research has found.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100788558
Yea, interesting...
While it seems to be hinting towards domestic rotation out of jobs... I wonder if there has been an effect on North American job markets... EU workers coming over to find employment?
Total bullshit propaganda. The EZ economy is NOT recovering over the next three years. They're not even at bottom yet. Greece is going further downhill followed by Italy, Spain, Portugal and France.
Germany is looking tired. Sales of "made in Germany" are declining.
Where please is the demand coming from to get their economy back on track? The Chinese are at their centrally planned wits end. The Japanese are finished and the US is too stupid to admit that they're really and once and for all bankrupter than bankrupt.
There's war before there is a recovery. End of story. There are no opportunities for "workers" anywhere.
You're in the Army now.
Because we crashed the Dow.
You'll never get rich, you sunnuvabitch,
You're in the Army now!
a Hindenburg Omen. "Of the previous 25 confirmed signals only two (8%) have failed to predict at least mild (2.0% to 4.9%) declines"
Give me a break ... 2% decline!!
Great the makrket goes up 10% when everyone is waiting for the 2% sell-off
As the Bear, I am fed up with watching for head-and-shoulders, Hindenburgs, flying wedges and every other tech apparation which results in another leg up.
It's all about the trading programs and Fed intervention. Take the technical and throw them out the window.
With the Fed printing an ocean of money it has to go somewhere. It goes into stocks, with plenty of money out there that banks have access to.
When the fed backed banksters, like Goldman or JPM want to take this market back up they will.
Haven't you noticed the parade fed members when the market goes down?
A Fed dog and pony show. Then there are the pumpers on CNBS.
People, Like the article said, It's only an observational trend. Every Crash displayed these characteristics, Not everytime the characteristics were observed resulted in a crash.
That's about it. If you believe you can assertain a logical rule there, then you use it, It's like seeing a guy roll a certain combination (below seven for example) and he rolled it 12 times in a row, Would it sway you to bet the other way a few rolls believing averages must work out.
It's only good for those types of uses. Use it as you will. It's a set of characteristics that's all. There's no emotion to it.
The Hindenburg Omen is like having a fat girlfriend.
You just never really know if she's gonna smash your balls whenever she gets on top.
awww geeezzzus man! lol you know you're going to hell for that, and so am i for laughing +100 for good chuckle.
I'm starting to think "Jackson Hole" is sumpin' Obama like to get up inta.......
btw, I'm wondering why "Tyler D" never gave credit for his usage of "Recovery Summer 4".....certainly., he saw that 'sum air'.....
btw, CHARTtin' is Useless with the CHARt Satan in CHARge....
P.S., Wondering If William Banzai 7 used to read SLATE.com......
All I know is that I am watching a grown ass man live his life as a dog on Nat Geo and we are paying for his lifestyle. It seems he cannot find employment and we as taxpayers are paying for him. Awesome. We are fucked. That's my "Hindenburg Omen".
Why not? We have spent tens of billions financing playpens for millionaire idiot athletes over the years.
http://deadspin.com/5964116/animated-infographic-watch-as-americas-stadi...
I wouldn't mind living life as a cat. If only I could get you tightwads to pony up the money I need to do so. I wouldn't need $500 million, either.
Meow, bitchez.
Simultaneously I am watching a fellow Kansan build his house off the land and live with no modern amenities. Quite impressive. Yep, Cats and Dogs.
The correction starts this week, likely Wed. afternoon in anticipation of a 400k+ jobless print (yes, bad news bears, this time), but it won't be because of any silly 'omen', or because Elaine Fonzarelli said so. It's simply time, the time is now, the charts are clear. First we fill the May 6 gap, then pause, then all the way down to the New Year's gap, a solid 15%, by Aug. 1. When the Algo With the Arab Strap can't get it up on a Tuesday, you just know it's over. Get out your summer shorts, put on Belle & Sebastian (or, if you're long, perhaps their countrymen Arab Strap), and watch this bungee-without-a-cord commence.
How about we all know it's coming- we just don't know what day.
Generational Dynamics is a historical methodology that analyzes historical events through the flow of generations, and uses the analysis to forecast future events by comparing today's generational attitudes to those of the past. This site provides analysis and forecasts of international news, politics, culture and finance. We apply the Generational Dynamics methodology ruthlessly, without any biases: We take no sides in any political battles (such as Republicans vs Democrats) or in any international conflicts (such as Israelis vs. Palestinians), and we don't use any religious interpretations. If we have any bias at all, it's that we're pro-American.
http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ww2010.home.htm
Many of us remember Hindenburg Omen in the past. Have a look on discussion
http://gdxforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2&hilit=romer&start=2790
Sharpen your pencil & use common sense this time around during alarmist mode secession. Just advise…
LOL Krugman in 2003:
“But my prediction is that politicians will eventually be tempted to resolve the crisis the way irresponsible governments usually do: by printing money, both to pay current bills and to inflate away debt”
http://www.nytimes.com/2003/03/11/opinion/a-fiscal-train-wreck.html
I think some larger positions are trying to unwind and looking for the exit. Obviously there's no real bid in the markets as all propaganda has failed to enticing J6P to take the bait again.
J6P is absent from this market and the hedgies and banks are sitting on a pile of shit they just can't flip to the greater fools. Nervous nellies are going to pull the plug soon enough.
The hedgies and the banks know the game is rigged. They're not stupid to be holding the bag when this shit show ends. Could be this week, next week, next month or this fall. But there's absolutely no doubt in my mind that this year will see a major pullback unless the FED jumps the shark.
I wonder how Bernie Madoff is doing?
Ben said the Hindenberg is tradition.......its not money.
I now might go a buy a Hindenberger with onions and cheese.....
is that a hindenburger
in your pocket...
or are you just glad
to see me
This time when it all crashes, will the fuckers finally jump?
Oh the humanity!
Great article!