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The Most Over/Under-Valued Housing Markets In The World

Tyler Durden's picture


House prices - with respect to both levels and changes - differ widely across OECD countries. As a simple measure of relative rich or cheapness, the OECD calculates if the price-to-rent ratio (a measure of the profitability of owning a house) and the price-to-income ratio (a measure of affordability) are above their long-term averages, house prices are said to be overvalued, and vice-versa. There are clearly some nations that are extremely over-valued and others that are cheap but as SocGen's Albert Edwards notes, it is the UK that stands out as authorities have gone out of their way to prop up house prices - still extremely over-valued (20-30%) - despite being at the epicenter of the global credit bust. Summing up the central bankers anthem, Edwards exclaims: "what makes me genuinely really angry is that burdening our children with more debt to buy ridiculously expensive houses is seen as a solution to the problem of excessively expensive housing."


Using these indicators, OECD countries can be roughly placed into five categories:

Where houses appear broadly correctly valued. This category includes the Unites States, where prices have started rising again after a substantial correction; Italy, where prices are falling rapidly; Austria, where prices are rising; and Iceland, Korea and Luxembourg where prices are roughly flat.


Where houses appear undervalued and prices are still falling. This category includes European countries hit hard by the crisis – Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Slovenia, Slovakia and the Czech Republic – but also Japan.


Where houses appear undervalued but prices are rising. This category includes only Germany and Switzerland, two European countries where strong growth in household disposable income and favourable financing conditions have boosted prices (despite macro-prudential measures in Switzerland).


Where houses appear overvalued but prices are falling. This category is the largest as it includes many European countries where the post-crisis housing market correction is still ongoing, most notably Spain, but also the United Kingdom, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, the Netherlands and one non-European country, Australia. While price corrections in these countries are necessary, they are also concerning as they weaken households’ financial health and potentially fragilize banking sectors.


Where houses appear overvalued but prices are still rising. This is the case in Canada, Norway, New Zealand and, to a lesser extent, Sweden. Economies in this category are most vulnerable to the risk of a price correction – especially if borrowing costs were to rise or income growth were to slow.


Edwards explains reality:

Why are houses too expensive in the UK?


Too much debt. So what is George Osborne's solution for first time buyers unable to afford housing? Why, arrange for a government guaranteed scheme to burden our young people with even more debt!


Why don't we call this policy by the name it really is, namely the indentured servitude of our young people.


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Tue, 06/04/2013 - 16:49 | 3624541 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Very simple explaination.  Overlay with data on unemployement and bank fucking bailouts...

okay, maybe not a clear trend, but a general one.

Tue, 06/04/2013 - 17:03 | 3624562 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture


Tue, 06/04/2013 - 17:05 | 3624567 FlyingDutchman
FlyingDutchman's picture

Seems a lot of people here in Belgium are still in denial over this.

Tue, 06/04/2013 - 18:08 | 3624703 idea_hamster
idea_hamster's picture

Notice that the price-to-income or affordability ratio in Iceland -- the one place that gave the bankster cabal a boot to the ballsack -- is exactly properly priced.

Thank you, and good night.

Tue, 06/04/2013 - 18:32 | 3624760 Stuck on Zero
Stuck on Zero's picture

Yep.  And if you notice, in general, countries with real income growth are mostly on the left side.


Tue, 06/04/2013 - 20:42 | 3625030 garypaul
garypaul's picture

Exact same story here in Canada

Tue, 06/04/2013 - 18:33 | 3624764 tyler
tyler's picture

Swearing!  The way brilliant men have communicated throughout centuries and a great way to invite those unfamiliar with your view an ear to listen.


Fucking idiots.

Tue, 06/04/2013 - 20:53 | 3625050 swmnguy
swmnguy's picture

Obscenity is the crutch of inarticulate fuckers.

Tue, 06/04/2013 - 19:14 | 3624846 CheapBastard
CheapBastard's picture

How do you say, "Build on your own lot" in British?

Tue, 06/04/2013 - 19:16 | 3624850 SimMaker
SimMaker's picture

I think it goes something like "Get off my land and take your Army with you"........but it's all a bit confusing with the Queen and all.

Tue, 06/04/2013 - 16:49 | 3624543 pragmatic hobo
pragmatic hobo's picture

long term average?

Tue, 06/04/2013 - 18:02 | 3624689 robertocarlos
robertocarlos's picture

There is 300 years of data showing that rents keep pace with incomes.

Tue, 06/04/2013 - 16:52 | 3624548 Urban Redneck
Urban Redneck's picture

If the "undervalued" locations with rising prices are in established and admitted real-estate bubbles - what does that say about the places the OECD views as "overvalued"?

Tue, 06/04/2013 - 17:11 | 3624549 medium giraffe
medium giraffe's picture

Why are houses so expensive in the UK?

It's not debt, it's mass unregulated speculation. House prices have been detached from real income for some time now because of it. Every man + dog has been in on the act.

Now there's a big bubble that's about to go *pop*, but you can't tell anyone here that, they'd think you're mad, or a blasphemer. UK house builders are already feeling the pain though, the truth is there to see.

Going laugh my balls off when it happens.

Tue, 06/04/2013 - 17:13 | 3624592 BigJim
BigJim's picture

Of course it's debt. If interest rates were lower, or if lenders had demanded a higher % deposit against the mortgage, prices wouldn't be anywhere near where they are now.

Tue, 06/04/2013 - 17:41 | 3624642 medium giraffe
medium giraffe's picture

So why has the HPI remained as high as ever, despite an over 50% fall in real interest rates since 2009?

Tue, 06/04/2013 - 18:04 | 3624693 robertocarlos
robertocarlos's picture

Big jim meant if interest rates were higher ie. normal.

Tue, 06/04/2013 - 18:14 | 3624719 medium giraffe
medium giraffe's picture

Oh. Lower = higher. New normal. Gotcha.

Wed, 06/05/2013 - 11:34 | 3626407 BigJim
BigJim's picture

Yes, my bad, I meant to write 'higher', obviously.

*Mutters to self* must proofread posts! must proofread posts! must proofread posts!

Tue, 06/04/2013 - 16:55 | 3624556 sharky2003
sharky2003's picture

Despite Japan appearing to be the most undervalued...there's probably a reason. You couldn't pay me to buy a plot of irradiated land.

Tue, 06/04/2013 - 17:46 | 3624561 medium giraffe
medium giraffe's picture

Hmm... not so sure about Fuku these days, digging this video up was cause for re-assessment. Very interesting, worth some of your time.

(Nuclear Scare Scam: Galen Winsor asks 'who owns the Plutonium and how much is it worth?, and eats some Uranium as an encore!)

Wed, 06/05/2013 - 17:39 | 3627688 medium giraffe
medium giraffe's picture

Yep, well aware of enenews, fukushima-diary, Caldicott, Gunderson (and good stuff on Washington's blog too) etc etc.  I've followed the Indian Point, San Onofre etc news closely too.  I've even wasted some time on the more crazed leftfield stuff (it's the jooooz!). 

I've been following it all since fuku broke, and to be honest, after buying a dosimeter, keeping an eye on radiationnetwork and even discussing with professors and such, I decided to take a bit of a doom-and-gloom vacation.  Then I came across the Galen Winsor lectures, and it's persuasive stuff.  Eating Uranium 308 is a compelling argument, and I can't help thinking "what if, what if, what if".  It's not the first time we've all been hoodwinked so some bottom-feeder can trouser a wodge of cash.

Look, please please please, just watch the vid, you'll see what I mean.  Winsor recently died of natural causes in his 80s.

Tue, 06/04/2013 - 17:06 | 3624573 FecundaGoat
FecundaGoat's picture

I think Japan prices went to the moon in the '90's and have never gone back...."Long Term Average"

How do you say deflation in Japanese?

Tue, 06/04/2013 - 17:42 | 3624645 RichardENixon
RichardENixon's picture

I think it's "defration"

Tue, 06/04/2013 - 19:58 | 3624925 upWising
upWising's picture

How do you say "clusterfuck" in Japanese?


Tue, 06/04/2013 - 17:04 | 3624566 cro_maat
cro_maat's picture

Houses are priced correctly in the U.S.?!! Is this according to REITS, HFs and the Fed who owns a sh*tload of MBS paper? If you asked the average 30 year old looking for their first starter home in the US who is unemployed or underemployed and can't qualify for a mortgage I would bet their answer would be "overpriced".

Tue, 06/04/2013 - 17:08 | 3624580 Buckaroo Banzai
Buckaroo Banzai's picture

You are misinterpreting the graph. It says that US houses are priced correctly relative to the housing markets of the rest of the world.

Of course, if the entire global housing market is fucked up (and it is, of course), then the US market is simply averagely fucked up.


Tue, 06/04/2013 - 17:12 | 3624591 cro_maat
cro_maat's picture

+ 1 I stand corrected sir!

Tue, 06/04/2013 - 19:53 | 3624919 Manipuflation
Manipuflation's picture

Here is more bullshit to consider from the Merican side.  Said property that I am trying to sell has an assessed value that is far greater than fair market value.  Ain't that grand?  No, its actually several grand out of pocket for me.  Any of you "Frost Backs" need a place in NW Wisconsin eh?  You could petition for reassessment after the sale occurs but I am not going to do so now as that would likely lower the fair market value.  These fuckwads really know how to stick it to you, I will give them that.

Tue, 06/04/2013 - 20:00 | 3624933 upWising
upWising's picture

Dude, the gubmint needs the dollahs for important projects.  Every dollah spent wisely.

Do you REALLY love Murika?

Tue, 06/04/2013 - 20:42 | 3625028 FreeNewEnergy
FreeNewEnergy's picture

Sorry, Manipuflation, but you must have your property reassessed in order to save on the taxes. It only makes sense. Your assessment has nothing to do with the fair market value of your home, except in the minds of people who believe in government and you shouldn't be selling to those types, anyhow.

Real estate sells for whatever the market will bear, more or less, so if you think your assessment is too high, lower it and don't worry about the sale price, especially if it's more than you paid. Besides, in order for a buyer to petition for a re-assessment after a sale, the sale price would be used as the assessment price in all likelihood.

Tue, 06/04/2013 - 21:21 | 3625118 Manipuflation
Manipuflation's picture

FreeNewEnergy, you did not read my other posts did you?  Too long, I know.  Their is no mortgage or lien but there sure as hell is a lot of sweat equity and capital improvements that have been done over the years.  At this point, I do not care anymore, I only want out of the scam system that is RE and home ownership.  I am in sales of other tangible goods, not RE, but I know how the scam works here in the Upper Midwest.  Everyone's assessed property value is too high in that particular school district because of the new public school.  You can petition all you want but you will get nowhere fast.  All similar properties that have recently sold have sold for under assessed value in the area.

Please do not assume that I am underwater on the sale price because that would be almost impossible.  I have never purchased ANY real estate, excepting for legal consideration in this case, and likely will never do so.  I can easily be negotiable on price because I am sick of the extra expense for owning something I do not really need or use much but there is no immediate reason for a fire sale either.

Tue, 06/04/2013 - 21:07 | 3625082 swmnguy
swmnguy's picture

"Manipuflation": Not sure what has happened in NW Wis., but here in Minneapolis assessed values are sometimes way out of whack with what houses are selling for, and the government estimate of "fair market value" is absurdly low right now.  I think all their algos got totally distorted 2000-2009 and still haven't de-buggered themselves.  Add in the incentives they have to keep their revenue income up, and you have a mess that isn't likely to get sorted out soon.  Any prospective buyers will get data on comparable sales from their realtor anyway, so I wouldn't worry too much about the "fair market value" if I were you.

My house is tax-assessed at exactly what I paid for it (coincidence?  I think not).  The government "fair market value" is about 10% lower than that.  But houses a couple doors either side of mine have sold recently for 15% more than I paid for mine 3 years ago, and both of them had lower "fair market value" than mine does now (and they're smaller, and one isn't nearly as nice).

BS it is indeed, but I wouldn't sweat it.

Wed, 06/05/2013 - 00:27 | 3625432 Manipuflation
Manipuflation's picture

And here I thought you were from Worthington swmnguy.  I have seen a few of your posts on the Star Tribune site in the past.  +1 for using the same screen name.   We currently live somewhere near St Cloud.  I have lived in many places in MN.  I can assure you that I have the best recipe for Lutefisk ever.  That gun is loaded so be careful.  We used to live in Brooklyn Park where finding a loaded gun in the shrubbery was not as uncommon as it should have been.  I am usually in Plymouth and Maple Grove more than once a week and like the food they have at the Three Squares.  You?

Tue, 06/04/2013 - 17:32 | 3624624 Dr Benway
Dr Benway's picture

"It says that US houses are priced correctly relative to the housing markets of the rest of the world."


No, it says the US is priced correctly relative to its long-term average price-to-rent and price-to-income.

Wed, 06/05/2013 - 11:34 | 3624596 BigJim
BigJim's picture

 If you asked the average 30 year old looking for their first starter home in the US who is unemployed or underemployed and can't qualify for a mortgage 

Why on earth should an unemployed or under-employed person be able to afford a house? It's pretty simple - for one person to consume more than they produce, someone else will have had to produce more than they consume... and the latter should think long and hard before funding the former.

Tue, 06/04/2013 - 17:22 | 3624608 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

Pssst, Bernanke, JPM, I can sell you some homes in... Detroit.  Huge potential.  Contact me.  /Serious

Tue, 06/04/2013 - 17:05 | 3624571 Spitzer
Spitzer's picture

Canadians and Australians are worse now then Americans were in 2006. You tell them that house prices wont rise 10% year after year and they will laugh in your face.


Tue, 06/04/2013 - 17:11 | 3624584 SimMaker
SimMaker's picture

Robocop, kind of got Detroits future just right........


Mad Max,..............etc

Tue, 06/04/2013 - 17:29 | 3624620 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

The Canucks are buying like mad in Maui, Hawaii. Over 90% of new buyers in Kihei are from Canada.

They think it's cheap RE compared to back home. LOL...300-400K is nothing to them.

Tue, 06/04/2013 - 18:51 | 3624809 Spitzer
Spitzer's picture

You wont get much for 300k in Canada. Even worse in Australia



Tue, 06/04/2013 - 19:50 | 3624911 Bear
Bear's picture

300-400,000 in Kihei ... 1 bed/bath 469,000 ... 3-4 gets you nice 2 b/b condo

Tue, 06/04/2013 - 19:35 | 3624885 ForTheWorld
ForTheWorld's picture

Lets say that saying things like this receives some very emotional responses from people who have either a) bought a house a long time ago and are just waiting to sell, or b) people who are just buying now, and will want to realise a gain when they sell it.

People in Australia generally don't consider the effects of ever increasing housing prices on the greater economy, nor do they care that when they go to sell their house and get an even "better", more expensive place (because that's what you do in Australia - you buy poor quality housing for as much as you can because that makes you great apparently), they'll still be behind monetarily, because they'll have lost out on the interest they've paid on their loan, as well as agents commission and all those other things. Their wages won't have increased though.

The stories I could tell you about how misguided some of my friends have been when it comes to housing purchases. They'd blow your mind.

Tue, 06/04/2013 - 17:16 | 3624590 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

Where's Don't-Cry-For-Me-Argentina, or Hot-Chile?

Tue, 06/04/2013 - 17:14 | 3624594 azengrcat
azengrcat's picture

And people are wondering why aussies and frost backs are pouring money into US real estate

Tue, 06/04/2013 - 17:16 | 3624597 SimMaker
SimMaker's picture

"Frost Backs"

Tue, 06/04/2013 - 19:14 | 3624845 Big Corked Boots
Big Corked Boots's picture

Outstanding! I've always thought we need a new slur for Canadiens!

I'm going to be using that on my frequent NY Thruway trips.

Tue, 06/04/2013 - 17:19 | 3624603 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

Bullish for 60,000 Foreign Workers (to be deported from Israel to unspecified 'foreign country') to buy homes in Germany.

Tue, 06/04/2013 - 17:24 | 3624615 mumbo_jumbo
mumbo_jumbo's picture

price to income ratio in the USA -~11%....are you fucking kidding me right now!!! i made over $100K last year and THERE IS NO WAY I CAN COME CLOSE TO AFFORDING A's not even close!!!  WTF!! is this another US RE propaganda piece!!

i guess i live in a different parallel universe from the author.....REMINDER 50% of Americans earn less than $33K a year x 3.5 = homes should cost $115K

Tue, 06/04/2013 - 17:46 | 3624656 newdoobie
newdoobie's picture

3 bdrm 2 bath in FLA 55K fixer upper goin for 35K

Tue, 06/04/2013 - 19:42 | 3624896 Manipuflation
Manipuflation's picture

Sounds like a lot of code violations.

Tue, 06/04/2013 - 19:37 | 3624888 Manipuflation
Manipuflation's picture

115K is about what it appears to costs to sell them through all of the various fines, fees and penalties and they you don't really own it anyway.  Fuck real estate and the fuckers who turned what should be an asset into a liability.  I never have to hammer on, paint, shovel snow, mow grass or do anything else with my coins except to inspect them once in a while.

Wed, 06/05/2013 - 02:24 | 3625533 EscapingProgress
EscapingProgress's picture

The long-term average was probably calculated starting in 2005. Eight years is long-term in the new normal. :)

Tue, 06/04/2013 - 17:24 | 3624616 tocointhephrase
tocointhephrase's picture

So many international investors buying up central london property on a Buy to Let, problem is.....NO Tenants! MUWAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHA.....My colleague advised a buyer as to why there is so little stock "we are in a rising market and people dont want to under sell as prices could be higher tomorrow"......although I was out with an Indian family today, they said it "the big secret that we dont want to let out to the general public is that houses are not going up in value its your cash going down in value" at that point I shook his hand and said "thank gold!". MARKET CRASH IN 5...4...3...2....1....

Tue, 06/04/2013 - 17:35 | 3624627 IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

I do not wanna jinx it, but we may have our house sold. Fucking please. We are taking a 10K hit, but we will make that up by living with dear ol mom and dad for 6 months rent free. PLEASE GOD. She is a banker too so a little ol' crash a few months from now would not be hated. 

Tue, 06/04/2013 - 19:14 | 3624844 Manipuflation
Manipuflation's picture

So you are in that similar boat too IR?(you never want to be in the same boat with me as shit tends to go afoul regularly and shit gets lost all of the time)  I hired a new REA a few weeks back and she called me yesterday to let me know that there have been two inquiries so far but no offers.  My story is a little different because there is no mortgage and the place is not my primary residence.  Still all the place does is cost me thousands and thousands of fiats every year.  How I ended up with the place was my late Mother's doing.  I wish she would have just sold the place on her own and moved into an apartment and saved us kids a whole lot of hassle and cash in the final years.

And get this, I still have to pay for all of the same shit that you are going to have to pay for such as title insurance.  WTF, here is the fucking Deed and abstract and and all of the supporting paperwork all right here so what fucking research is there really to do?  Check for liens?  What's that take, one phone call or internet query?  I asked the REA, who has been doing this sort of bullshit for 17 years, when the last time a seller actually had the note on a property she was selling was and I stalled her cold.  "Hmm, not often" she said.  I told her that I had better get a steep discount then and got going on Linda Green and MERS.  That really floored her.

Even better, since the house and property are no longer my primary residence, I might get fucked on capital gains taxes.(I might be able to work around some or all of that)  I know that I am going to get fucked on this deal one way or another big time I just need to mitigate the damage because there are a lot of rolls of silver dimes on the line here.  Assuming that I do get the place sold, I will end up with a check that I will have to deposit and somehow have to figure out how to withdraw cash without a huge pile of fucking problems with SAR's being filed.  I sure as hell am never going to leave more than a few K in a digital corzinesque bank account.  

Best of luck IR, I hope you are able to get out relatively unscathed.  Keep us up to date on the bullshit you have to deal with. 

Tue, 06/04/2013 - 19:42 | 3624895 IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

Sucks doesn't it? The good news is that the wife has become completely frustrated from this. I showed her the numbers on interest and that we would basically pay 3 times the price from the mortgage. We decided the next house we buy will be IN CASH. My parents are a year away from owning. They have been awakened as well and even read my emailed ZH articles. They even sent me one of the "Top 40 Reasons the Economy Will Crash" from last week or so. I'm proud of them. We are basically circling the wagons. My wife is a Nurse Practitioner and my dad just got a pacemaker. They need our help with that as he gets adjusted(he is doing quite well now) and we get baby care from my mom who was an elementary teacher for 42 years. We may just have her homeschool her. They see the writing on the wall. We will be outta NYC area too. I. Can't. Wait. We will be closer to her family too who have a huge horse farm and a fucking arsenal with heavy machinery. They sense issues as well.


O/T I missed your youtube vid too. I wanted to check her out but got busy. We will be in the Cincy area soon. Good luck with yours. I told my wife that the next house we buy will be almost totally cash and I am dying in the SOB. 

Tue, 06/04/2013 - 20:54 | 3625054 Manipuflation
Manipuflation's picture

Yes it does IR.  It is always good to have the wife on your side.  You are a sharp guy and you will make it work.  If you really want to buy a house again with cash that is up to you but I avoided buying RE altogether yet still ended up with some.  You might know that my goal is to have as few documented assets as possible and if you did not know that you do now.  That's great that you parents on board with you now too and I wish your Dad the best. 

I am not sure if you have any siblings but I would like to offer you a friendly word of advice.  I know because I have just been through it all over the last few years.  You might have already done this but it is important to make sure someone,(hopefully you) has financial power of attorney established.  Laws vary between states on what financial power of attorney means so DYODD.  Our Mother refused to sign financial power of attorney to any of us and instead stuck us with medical power of attorney which fucking means phone calls from the hospital or nursing home or assisted living ant any hour of the day in Wisconsin.  Anyway, when she passed, all assets were frozen and required a shitload of bullshit.  Some assets are still out there and we still can't access i and it has been corzined for all practical purposes.  Make sure to stress to your parents that financial power of attorney only comes into effect after death or after a judgement of mentally incompetence by two doctors.(might be different where you are)

You appear to be at that age where a whole freight train load of bullshit is silently racing at you and this shit can last for years.  You should also have dual power of attorney set up between you and your wife as we do because we keep separate bank accounts etc.  There is more to warn you of but not here.  You can e-mail me and we can take this private because some of this preparing for end of life shit is extremely morbid and should not be posted here.  My parents and grandparents are all gone now so I have some experiences and some in particular that you need to avoid.  I just a helped a friend of mine a few weeks back save over 80K because other relatives had found deposits and were raiding the accounts.  We stopped that within 24 hours.

The bear video along with a writeup is on my website now.  You know how to find the site right?  I don't want to sit here and link pimp everything that I post so I won't.  Some of the content is great, some OK and some of it ain't worth a shit and should probably be deleted.LOL  I am noticing more and more hits from search engines and redirects without SEO'ing the site though. Just google Manipuflation and you will find it.  There are two other ZHer's there now but only one has posted so far.  I did not build that site for a mass market and it has only been pimped on ZH.  

I remember you from the MW days if I am not mistaken.  I've backed you on HuffPo as well although you use a different screen name there.  Fire me an e-mail.  Don't cost nothin.    

Tue, 06/04/2013 - 21:24 | 3625121 IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

MW was the beginning to my awakening. Good remembering. I don't go to HuffPo as its a waste of time and I get pretty upset from the stupidity. Is that your boy? I love your wife's accent. I am a little tentative from emailing outright and keep it public, but i just may if get a question through your site, which I will be visiting. I got stalked by a guy from MW; scary. "There is a difference between hyperbole, literary license and outright lying just as there is a difference between fact and fantasy although the latter comparison is increasingly co-mingled depending on who is doing the talking." Good quote. Your name of the site is awesome. Friend me here and we can go from there. Love your stuff and it seems you know how to make a nice 4th of july show using tannerite! We sold the house, now its just a matter of getting fucked by 10K or 13K. Makes no matter. My mom said they'll be getting fucked by that amount every year for the next 5-10. Smart woman. Stay Frosty!

Wed, 06/05/2013 - 01:45 | 3625505 Manipuflation
Manipuflation's picture

Comgrats Friend on resolving the house issue.  I will make it work out as well. 


As for being a stalker of former MW posters....right, you know what happened there so no need to explain.  Do you recall the screen name?  You can answer your own question there.  I was on the gold boards at the time and hardly said anything public aside from the gold board of the day.  I am glad my memory served me correctly as for your MW roots.  I was private friends with Jan Paul all the way to the end.  If you recall Rojodee, he has copy of all Jan Paul's posts.


If you want to stay public that is fine.  You will notice no ads on my site.  I don't want the clicks per se, I want discussion and writing.  I created a blog on FacePlant that really got going after the MW debacle but I can not stand FacePlant anymore.  FB is wrong for a lot of reasons.  I was the main writer/bullshitter on that blog.  I made the blog and announced that I was leaving to create a real one.  I thought that would be good but almost no one followed as I advocated leaving FB to blog elsewhere.  I simply said to myself one day last February, Fuck It, I know enough people who can help me get this done so why not do it?  Well, the technical things got done but content is still an issue.  If one really respects what the Tyler's do everyday I would suggest attempting to write a blog post and not just a one line reply.  It is difficult to do and often ends poorly.  This scares a lot of potential writers away however leaves me in the position of constantly having to add content which I know for a fact dilutes the value of some of my posts.  I really do enjoy writing and trying different style modifications but sometimes it is nice to let something chill in draft for a bit.  Sometimes a post just comes out all wrong even though the intention was pure.

Thank you for the compliments on the site and the writing.  I have had quite a few compliments on some articles but I am not quite sure how to take them.  Are the compliments genuine or are they patronizing and indicating that I should cease and desist?  Aside from that, with all of the forms of electronic monitoring out there, I can see why folks hesitate to post.  However, it must be noted that one website is not safer than another.  All of your IP Addy's are logged here on ZH as well as all of your posts are so don't kid yourself.  The value of Boating Accident to ZHer's is the ability to post anything they want, including video and photos without making a huge column such as this starting to be.

Yes, that is my son.(2)  You can also hear the daughter.(8)  Wife is a Russian national and well, further information is private.  

Tue, 06/04/2013 - 23:38 | 3625374 Uchtdorf
Uchtdorf's picture

It used to be that Americans would laugh at someone who slipped on a banana peel and fell down. Now we laugh as we fantasize about bankers earning their just rewards. I don't care how you slice and dice it, that's real progress right there.

Tue, 06/04/2013 - 17:36 | 3624631 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

It makes so much damn sense (note: sarcasm) for central banks to support the kiting of home prices when structural unemployment is high and GDP growth is sluggish in major economies around the globe.  Keep on pumping until homes are completely out of the reach of the middle class...


Tue, 06/04/2013 - 17:44 | 3624651 dojufitz
dojufitz's picture

Homes in Melbourne Australia are a joke.........

Tue, 06/04/2013 - 17:45 | 3624654 krugergate
krugergate's picture

Here in Alberta Canada 500k buys you a shoe box with no lot - did I mention the taxes and 5.50 gallon gas a 6 gallon milk.

Tue, 06/04/2013 - 19:45 | 3624901 Bear
Bear's picture

How do they afford them?

Tue, 06/04/2013 - 22:23 | 3625269 krugergate
krugergate's picture

big mortgages and they go work in a camp for the oil sands and see the family every now and then...200 sq ft for crap

Tue, 06/04/2013 - 18:38 | 3624777 Mario55
Mario55's picture

For housing markets, national comparisons do not make sense because within a given country there are very different markets. Example, Paris housing market has nothing to do with most of the rest of France. So national averages like in this graph are meaningless.

Tue, 06/04/2013 - 18:55 | 3624815 MarcusAurelius
MarcusAurelius's picture

Hey I got a brother-in-law that thought it was a great idea to buy houses all over the fucking place too. As it turns out as long as you can rent them out it works well......"ok", ecept he forgot that you pay the taxes and look after everything else that goes wrong with the property.

     I am a Canadian and we saw what "the Carney effect" has been in the article the night before. Has anyone ever known credit expansion and housing price increase to end well for these idiots who use the money from the overvalued home to buy other homes? I sure haven't. If you bought twenty to thirty years ago and watched your house soar with the inflation the boomers caused then maybe. However if you are now looking for a lifestyle free of debt and inservitude, forget about it, after all only one generation should get all the benefits right.

    Not fair. What is not fair is the horse shit credit expansion that fueled all these bubbles over the past thrity years that was all based mostly on false demand. Nothing was ever produced to justify this price increase of supply versus demand. I wonder how many of the millenium generation are going to stick around to fund their parents retirement. I hope they tell them all to go "fuck themselves" personally.

      I agree with the last comment on how ridiculous expenses are getting up here in Canada. Except there is one problem. Some one has to pay for this horse shit. You know I love my fellow Canucks with a passion and I do think the US is still a great country but you took the bait back in 2007 and you ran with it like the addicts you are. You screamed at the Feds the wrong way. You should have kicked Carney in the nuts when he lowered interest rates to 0.5% and you should have fired that asshole Flaherty for allowing it to happen. They did you NO favors and all they did was prolong a party that "always" (no expceptions- remember 1990?) ends badly. In this case very badly. What the hell is next 2 million for a home that are children can not afford already?

      Addiction is as addiction does. Have fun with the heroine while it lasts. Ever watch a heroine junkie try to go clean? I can't tell you the hell the person goes through and it is because I work in the field that I know. If you think the US housing bubble ended badly, just wait.

Tue, 06/04/2013 - 19:07 | 3624838 Cacete de Ouro
Cacete de Ouro's picture

Central'ish' London is unique (vs the rest of England....or include Wales and Scotland if you like). Property prices here are a function of limited supply and constantly recreated demand from various sources all of which have liquid wealth....foreign HNWs, bankers, media, technology...
Even though mortgages in the plus 1 million pound bracket are harder to get, the people buying in central and 'ish' (nearby) areas don't care in a lot of cases. They pay with their own 100% cash, harded earned or otherwise.

Tue, 06/04/2013 - 19:14 | 3624847 Common_Cents22
Common_Cents22's picture

US Real Estate is overvalued.  It's directly proportional to easy credit, QE, low rates.   Determined by the "Nank.   Period.


With another credit crunch coming soon, where you have to put 20-50% down and have stellar credit, that will CRATER home prices.


Any "recovery" is just money recycled into equities and has nothing to do with sustainable job growth and reignition of lending leading to money expansion.


Tue, 06/04/2013 - 19:18 | 3624856 EmmittFitzhume
EmmittFitzhume's picture

I don't think it will be a housing bubble because every bankster/politician is conciously working to avoid it.  It something else will snap in this process.  

Tue, 06/04/2013 - 20:12 | 3624960 SimMaker
SimMaker's picture

How about a Housing Pressure Cooker?


Don't drone me bro, it was just a joke.

Tue, 06/04/2013 - 19:31 | 3624879 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

Thanks for the info. I'm off to Norway to flip houses.

Tue, 06/04/2013 - 23:28 | 3625362 Duude
Duude's picture

Flipping houses in Norway is like buying into an extremely overbought stock market because its been going up. Better to buy into Germany where they're rising but are still relatively cheap. 

Tue, 06/04/2013 - 20:04 | 3624940 Kreditanstalt
Kreditanstalt's picture

If you actually have a decent job these days, you're RICH.

The only thing that can save us in Canada is some real, serious unemployment - this time among the middle-managerial, technical, resource and government sectors who never seem to suffer.

Because just about everyone else has been financially repressed into the dust... 

Tue, 06/04/2013 - 20:09 | 3624952 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

I didn't see Detroit on the chart.

Tue, 06/04/2013 - 20:13 | 3624965 SimMaker
SimMaker's picture

You need two screens, one above, one below.

Tue, 06/04/2013 - 23:26 | 3625357 Duude
Duude's picture

First there has to be value.

Tue, 06/04/2013 - 20:23 | 3624991 PiltdownMan
PiltdownMan's picture

Canada? Nelson laugh!

Tue, 06/04/2013 - 20:37 | 3625014 Smegley Wanxalot
Smegley Wanxalot's picture

Most overvalued domicile is the one you have to pay for but not live in when you get divorced.

Tue, 06/04/2013 - 20:54 | 3625052 oddjob
oddjob's picture

Funny how the exspensive places offer free medical care for life.

Tue, 06/04/2013 - 21:16 | 3625105 fukidontknow
fukidontknow's picture

The "free" medical care in NZ is so bad that most middle class people have health insurance for private care.

Tue, 06/04/2013 - 21:58 | 3625215 oddjob
oddjob's picture

 People are usually grateful for getting what emergency care they need, might I suggest your government up its standards a little. That being said, I have no problem with a 2 tier healthcare system.

Tue, 06/04/2013 - 23:24 | 3625352 Duude
Duude's picture

Same goes in the UK and soon the US. 

Tue, 06/04/2013 - 20:54 | 3625053 muleskinner
muleskinner's picture

The housing market is the stupidest market on the planet. I know of houses that rent for 4 grand per month with 5 occupants working different shifts so the number of occupants in the house is not all 5 rent payers.

It's a shitbox nonpareil, but who cares when you don't live there, you just sleep and work and when it's over you move. You don't have to live in a sleepcar and jump in the river to get clean after a day's work that gets you covered with grime. It's heaven for a 20 30 year old cats that don't stay home anyway, so the market demand is not for a home, but for flophouse activity these days.

BFD, some tend to think that it is die-off time these days, so what difference does it make? You will pay through the nose here in murka.

so, fuck you too.

If you can get 4 grand per month for a 4 bedroom home rented to 5 people, more power to you. You're a capitalist. Ain't no different than the Titusville days of oil booms and busts where land sold for 1 million dollars per acre back down to 25 cents.

It's all oil boom and bust. Strong oil production will be a boon to the markets. Everybody wants oil and it's a guarantee, can't live without it.

No oil, no peace, unless you have oil, then it's war.

The market moves with the oil inventories and nothing else.

Just a daily vantage from shit for brains head. so, fuck you.

Tue, 06/04/2013 - 21:21 | 3625117 fukidontknow
fukidontknow's picture

But you get a free ipad and $1000 cash when you take out a 95% mortgage on a leaky home in New Zealand. 

Tue, 06/04/2013 - 21:25 | 3625133 ExploitedCitizen
ExploitedCitizen's picture

Canada is in for a hell of a correction.

I see people in $500k houses, not in Toronto/Vancouver either, who are in there 30's, two brand new cars, and they don't have enough money to buy fucking snow tires.

Everything is maxed out according to the monthly payment they can make, no planning beyond that.  Jobs, questionably secure.

We have real estate agents here driving Maserati's, and they are looked upon like Hollywood celebs.  This is a royally fucked up market.

I can rent a condo for $1300 in Toronto, that sells for $400,000.  @3.5% Interest, its nearly 200% more expensive to buy the fucker than rent, BUBBLE.

Real estate market here just died, this week.  I work as a building inspector with the gov, never seen such poor starts for a June.

Wed, 06/05/2013 - 02:06 | 3625519 mkkby
mkkby's picture

I thought Canadians had more sense than that.  Shame really. 

Hurry up and cash out while you can.  I can tell you from experience watching the US bubble burst -- as soon as people start to realize it's over, buyers will disappear completely and you'll be stuck watching the knife fall.

Tue, 06/04/2013 - 23:23 | 3625348 Duude
Duude's picture

I find it interesting the US is the only nation in the bunch that offers non-recourse mortgage financing. No one else allows a borrower to walk away free and clear from their legal obligation. 

Wed, 06/05/2013 - 02:44 | 3625543 Zoran
Zoran's picture

Australia has one of the biggest housing bubbles in the world.

One of the main reasons is negative gearing. Check out this startling expose of the problem.....

Australia’s Negatively Geared Property Investor Overhang - Growing Army of Loss-Making Speculators

Now the question is, how long before this mess implodes?

I'd say not long!

Wed, 06/05/2013 - 07:47 | 3625679 mombers
mombers's picture

They could have at least come up with a quirky name for the scheme, like Freddie Mac or Fannie Mae. Or a more honest one like 'Help To Sell'

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