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ADP Misses Expectations, Second Worst Print In Last 8 Months; Sequester Blamed
By now it is futile to point out the woeful inability of the ADP report to predict the NFP's ARIMA X 12 output of pure noise so we'll leave it at that. Here is the headline: May private payrolls created 135K with consensus looking for 165K - only two analysts were looking for a weaker number. This was the second lowest print since September excluding only the April 113K print. What's worse is that the prior number which usually is revised to match the NFP was revised lower from 119K to 113K, confirming that the quality of NFP reporting in the past month is suspect to quite suspect. Don't expect the imminent arrival of a manufacturing renaissance: mfg jobs were down 6,000. But fear not - Mark Zandi blames it on the sequester: "Manufacturers are reducing payrolls. The softer job market this spring is largely due to significant fiscal drag from tax increases and government spending cuts." At least it wasn't the May weather or tornadoes...
The report breakdown:
From the report:
“U.S. private sector employment increased by 135,000 jobs during the month of May 2013, a slight increase over the previous month of April. The majority of new jobs in May came from the service-providing sector, which added a total of 138,000 jobs, while the goods-producing sector recorded a loss of 3,000 jobs. Notably, a gain of 5,000 jobs in the construction industry during May was offset by a decline of 6,000 lost jobs in the manufacturing industry.”
– Carlos A. Rodriguez, president and chief executive officer of ADP
Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, "The job market continues to expand, but growth has slowed since the beginning of the year. The slowdown is evident across all industries and all but the largest companies. Manufacturers are reducing payrolls. The softer job market this spring is largely due to significant fiscal drag from tax increases and government spending cuts."
Some more charts: this is the second worst month in the past eight.
ADP now trending decidedly below the BLS:
Small companies have recovered their depression plunge. Medium-to-large, not so much:
The manufacturing renaissance is absent: second month in a row, and 6 of the past 11 with negative manufacturing jobs "growth":
Finally, the beloved by all social networks ADP inforgraphic:
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I hear a helicopter
The Fed will do moar.
They've already done moar! Crates upon crates of freshly printed $100 bills sit in Fed warehouses waiting anxiously for October when they will be distributed to the public like Sandra Fluke with condoms: Here ya go l'il serf, go get yourself a gallon of gas or a Big Mac....
If the overall economy is this sensitive to the sequester, we're doomed! This would be further proof of being way past the tipping point...
DaddyO
135k jobs in a population of 350mil?
JB do not forget they will revise this downwards next month. The job market is sucking.
market rallies on news
global nuclear war breaks out - market rallies on news
fuck bernanke
Global nuclear war = lots of broken windows!
I thought the Black Helicopters fly silent.
It does. The weird thumping sound you hear now is caused by the bundles of $100 notes hitting the ground. Soon it'll be whole bags...
So stocks will close green today then?
like....a fucking BATTALION of them....and Robert Duval leading the way....
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gz3Cc7wlfkI
Mr. Sequester and Mr. Taper take blame better than the weather!
Tapir?
http://cdn1.images.videobash.com/photos/000/109/643/109643.jpg
BTW I nominate this little guy as the avatar for any new stories concerning Unca Bens Taper.
Would love the opportunity to punch Zandi right in the cocksucker
Doesn't bode well for the revisions.
manufacturing -6,000
that is a problem that is not going away.
We don't need no steenkin manufacturing, Ben just ordered moar 3D printers
'Ben just ordered moar 3D printers'
From China
Friend of mine in Seattle is doing wiring harnesses on Boeing 787 at $15/hr after construction dried up at more than double that hourly amount, and he's staring at a another layoff. Forward, Soviet....
if they fuckin re-sleeve to flying cars...or god damned mass transit.....we'd have something....dammit
BONUS TIME!
138,000 service sector jobs. Service, a derivative of the word serf. In a span of two generations our country has gone from a manufacturing powerhouse to a nation of serfs. .....unfuckingbelievable!
And part time hour jobs are getting hours cut because now they can force penalties for under 30 hour week jobs if they think you're doing it to avoid heathcare regs.....and of course they will think it.
Actually I've heard of people that are now at 29.5 hours. I guess fining the company that doesn't want to pay or can't afford to pay is going to work wonders for employment too.
@ Doc, thank you David Rockefellar and your TLC, thank you Bill Clinton and NAFTA, and last but not least, thanks and hugs and kisses to Woodrow Wilson and the Federal Reserve for reducing this once great nation to a pile of rubble.
And thank you for placing the blame where it actually belongs!
pods
It's good to see you pods. I thought maybe you were dragged off to some fema camp.
Nah, some time off to visit family, and got some quality time in on the lake. :)
One thing I miss about NY is the Muskie fishing.
pods
Time away with the family is a good thing. It helps clear the mind from this crap.
I have flying whirly birds over me nightly Doc.....one never knows.....
Forgot to give kudos to Obama and Obamacare for making us a nation of part time serfs. Sorry for the snub Barry for you certainly are responsible formore than your share of the destruction.
Not surprising at all, Doc. When Obama appointed Jeffrey Immelt to head his Jobs Council Obama stated, with a flourish, that Immelt knows how to get things done. Obama failed to mention that GE has been exporting thousands of jobs yearly to China and M'asia, nor that more and more of GE's infrastructure was moving to Asia. When you get ass-kissingly goverment approval for replacing our work force with 15yr olds in M'asia, the result is what we see now.
I found the answer to my own question of a couple days ago, flipping burgers and fries at McDonalds is counted as 'manufacturing' jobs in the US.
My neighbors kid (college student) just got denied a job at a large fast food restaurant because she does not speak spanish.
caramba hombre estamos jodidos!
Don't doubt you Sloan...but do you have any back up on that?
I would love to share that....
on the one hand we have accelerating asset bubble on every imaginable category, and on the other hand we have economy that's running on fumes. What now bernanke? more trillions to continue the asset bubble blow off top?
What now bernanke? more trillions to continue the asset bubble blow off top?
Same old, same old. Making their friends richer and everyone else poorer since 1913.
And...the real barometer, payroll tax revenue, still dropping. Priceless, bitchez!
Mark Zandi, you were hired to do moar than spin. You can rig numbers better than that young man and you know it. We are all ashamed at your feeble, half-hearted attempt. Get back to the drawing board and get to work. We're expecting better numbers next month.
And stawks are rallying on this pleasant news... haha.
Has this been discussed in ZH....?
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.co.uk/2012/10/mish-obamacare-mailbag-expect-more-part.html
"....It's nice to see someone quantify exactly what I said would happen nearly 8 months ago. And it did, and the chart explains why. Companies across the board reduced hours of workers from 32 to 25 and had to make up for the difference by hiring hundreds of thousands more part-time workers."
More quantitative beatings coming!
p.s. Wasn't that one of the best ZH headline ever?
"....sequestration blamed....." Assessing blame.
What an effeminite culture America has devolved to.
Heaven help us if we ever have to reduce real spending.
gimme a PHD from harvard and I can ruin any profitable company, any country economy, by doing as I was schooled..the .01% must always benefit which is why there is davos, bilderberger's,CFR ..just working the plan. ben
Yep like I tell people all the time, I can fail just fine on my own I don't need someone else doing it for me.
Some fucking cnbc banana head just said, regarding unit labor costs, "It's surprising to see these numbers so late in the recovery".
Holy cognative dystopiance.
They're tripping over their own propaganda. By the time CNBC is done with this data point they will declare that, despite missing expectations, it was a damned good number!
They just brought out some guy from the world gold council and asked him "if the stock market is so high and the economy is doing so well why are people buying physical gold".
His answer was partly audable through the laughter and banter all around the studio. Then as he finished they strapped a prime rib to his back and let a tiger loose in the studio. They are really gettig out of hand.
Stawks SO high...ecoanomy SO sweet!... .why anyone would want poopy old golds fer? Shoulda be buyin STAWKS! Maybe some BAWNDS! It's a PARTY up in here I tell ya!
Must. Blowhorn. GoodTimes.
CNBC is a sit-com complete with their studio prompts re "CLAP" "LAUGH" and "OoOO". I swear to God I heard canned laughter the other day. CNBC is also at a periodic and unspoken war with Zero Hedge. This country is so so close to declaring gold and silver bugs unpatriotic in that they spend their money on PMs instead of buying into the stock market which any good American does. That type of atmosphere led to the government confiscation of gold last century. I don't want to revisit those days but I think we are rapidly approaching them.
They will go after the PM bugs to make everyone feel slightly better after they grab their deposits.
Yup. That type of thinking is right in line with 'savers should be punished, they should use their money to prop up the stock market and buy buy buy'. Fascism at its finest.
Tell the lie often enough and even the propagandists start believing their own bullshit apparently.
Simply because the bobbleheads on TeeVee just read the teleprompter. Just like our cocksucker in chief. Chub it up Reggie Love, the president is ready.
fonz.....what are you doing watchin CpeepeeNBeeCaCa?
that is not good for you bro.....
Sequester???? WTF....I thought we are suppose to blame Bush?
ya but the banks got another $85 BIllion of printed reward for being crooked....and that is what is important!
I need ekm to come out here and tell me more about the tapering because all I see is moar.
Can't lose! Bad news is good news in this market lately because it keeps the Fed buying bonds and interest rates low.
The Fed gets nothing in the data suggesting they should end QE sooner vs. later.....therefore (in quant speak):
High Unemployment + Lower Wages + Higher Taxes on Working People + Waning Unionization x QE4EVA = Green DJIA/S&P/NSDQ
The intended take away from today's leaders, no matter what side of the political spectrum they are on, is that if we want to have jobs then workers will have to take lower pay and fewer benefits.
Hedge accordingly, slaves.
BTFD you fucking muppets! Buy! BUY BUY!!!
Low payroll numbers = longer QE. Let the rally begin.
Bush's Fault
it was the warm weather... duuude
QE....the frightening part for Ben has to be no one cares anymoar. QE bazooka now has about as much effect as a gun when you pul the trigger a bouquet of flowers pops out of the barrel.
All those doubling or tripling of part-time jobs to avoid Obamacare is winding down.
Nice jump in part-time jobs the last several months.
Just sick. Real sick.
We need a NFP jobs number of 241 k just to be equal to the numbers of the first five months of last year.
THat ain't happening.
um, he forgot to blame bush. wa up wit dat
of course not....but the MSM will dress it up to the dumbed down.....something asinine will be "blamed"
of course not....but the MSM will dress it up to the dumbed down.....something asinine will be "blamed"
My guess for NFP on Friday to be +115K
It's better than last year, which was at 75K (ended up at 106K). At least I benefitted from that number as the Obama Election ML and Intrade juice odds (which I had his side) fell after that crappy report.
Obama's List of things to blame for government incompetence:
1) weather (good from Feb to April)
2) Sequester (good when you dont get your way and you're a spoilt little shit)
3) China (good year round, except when you need loans)
4) Millionaires and billionaires (good when you cant balance the budget)
5) Foreign Headwinds (good when diverting from domestic policy failure)
6) Bush (good because it still works with braindead supporters)
ADP is pretty much useless.
Not that the BLS is any better.
Doesn't ADP have better #'s than the BLS, esp for private employment? They handle payroll for thousands of companies, on a weekly basis!
You should consider that the eCONomists may be wrong.
BooBirds should be put in school until they learn to think.
135,000 new jobs -343,000 new unemployed. Yep sounds like a Recovery to me.
Who cares?
Just add some MO POMO!!!
Everything will be fine.
The sequester is not the problem. 56 trillion dollars of debt is the problem. Or is it 57 trillion now?
"If only the government spent more money." But where does the money to spend, come from? DEBT. It becomes self defeating.
Doesn't ADP have better #'s than the BLS, esp for private employment? They handle payroll for thousands of companies, on a weekly basis!
You should consider that the eCONomists may be wrong.
BooBirds should be put in school until they learn to think.
Recovery Summer IV begins in 2 weeks!