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IMF Admits It Is An Idiot And A Liar

Tyler Durden's picture


The topic of the IMF's idiocy - unquestioned here following years and years and years of absolutely horrific forecasts, not to mention charts like this one courtesy of the Troika, of whom the IMF is a proud member ...

... has been widely covered in the past. However, while in the past we have attributed to stupidity all the faults of the Angela Mozilla Christine Lagarde-headed organization, we never had the factual backing to also invoke malice, lies and manipulation. Now, we can.

According to a leaked "strictly confidential" document first obtained by the WSJ, "The International Monetary Fund is set to admit to major missteps over the past three years in its handling of the bailout of Greece, the first spark in a debt crisis that spread across Europe."

In an internal document marked "strictly confidential," the IMF said it badly underestimated the damage that its prescriptions of austerity would do to Greece's economy, which has been mired in recession for years.


But the fund also stressed that the response to the crisis, coordinated with the European Union, bought time to limit the fallout for the rest of the 17-nation euro area.


The IMF said that it bent its own rules to make Greece's burgeoning debt seem sustainable and that, in retrospect, the country failed on three of the four IMF criteria to qualify for assistance.


Over the last three years, a number of senior IMF figures, including the current managing director Christine Lagarde, have repeatedly said that the country's debt level was "sustainable"—likely to be repaid in full and on time. But the document described the uncertainties around the Greek rescue as "so significant that staff was unable to vouch that public debt was sustainable with a high probability."


The greater beneficiary of the 2010 bailout wasn't so much Greece as the wider euro-zone, the document suggested. It described the rescue as a "holding operation" that "gave the euro area time to build a firewall to protect other vulnerable members and averted potentially severe effects on the global economy."


An immediate restructuring would have been cheaper for European taxpayers, as private-sector creditors were repaid in full for two years before 2012 using the money borrowed by Athens. Greece's debt level thus remained undented, but it was now owed to the IMF and euro-zone taxpayers instead of banks and hedge funds.


The IMF also said its own analysis of the future development of debt was wrong "by a large margin." The fund's debt-sustainability analysis—a critical piece of forecasting—"included stress tests but these turned out to be mild compared with actual outcomes."


The fund didn't explain why it made the choices it did in detail, nor why it agreed to troika analyses that it now says were incorrect. But it said IMF staff "explicitly flagged" risks in the Greek program implementation.

In other words, as we claimed from the very beginning, Greece was nothing but a scapegoat to preserve the viability of the otherwise doomed Eurozone, with over three years of harsh terms imposed merely to keep the crisis contained and from spilling over to Europe proper, and instead of restructuring debt early on or allowing Greece exit from the EUR so the country could undergo an external Drachma-based rebalancing, the clueless organization just "made things up" as it went along all with one simple goal: shield Brussels from reality.

In order to achieve this, the IMF manipulated data, always coming up with "rosy" forecasts, even though all "reforms" in Greece failed and have continued to fail to this day.

Our take: this is merely the mea culpa the precedes yet another major negative inflection point for Europe, and whose job is to give the ECB carte blanche to engage full-blown, unsterilizied QE, whose consequences will be even more disastrous in the longer-term.

In short - Europe is finally returning to its rightful place that we all know and love: the brink.


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Wed, 06/05/2013 - 12:24 | 3626555 ZippyBananaPants
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Wed, 06/05/2013 - 12:34 | 3626581 Pinto Currency
Pinto Currency's picture


That graph looks like the inverse of the major banks' gold price predictions over the last 13 years.

Wed, 06/05/2013 - 12:35 | 3626586 Nihilarian
Nihilarian's picture

Looks like something Business Insider would put together, although this is a bit more accurate.

Wed, 06/05/2013 - 12:41 | 3626600 Jack Napier
Jack Napier's picture

IMF: Have a brink on me.

Wed, 06/05/2013 - 12:54 | 3626679 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Lies? Hmmmm... must be getting serious.

Wed, 06/05/2013 - 13:08 | 3626745 knukles
knukles's picture

Admitted we were powerless over reality - that our criminal actions should be prosecuted.

Wed, 06/05/2013 - 13:29 | 3626837 James_Cole
James_Cole's picture

The fund didn't explain why it made the choices it did in detail, nor why it agreed to troika analyses that it now says were incorrect. But it said IMF staff "explicitly flagged" risks in the Greek program implementation.

Yeah, IMF hasn't explained a whole lot of it's consistent fuck-ups over the decades so doubtful they're going to start now.

Just another garbage US agency propping up shitty American businesses + allies. 

Wed, 06/05/2013 - 13:32 | 3626850 Precious
Precious's picture

Idiot, liar ... and can't keep a secret n'either.

Wed, 06/05/2013 - 13:46 | 3626914 DogOfSinope
DogOfSinope's picture

But, but... It looked somehow... isobaric.

Wed, 06/05/2013 - 14:25 | 3627059 Colonel Klink
Colonel Klink's picture

Hang'em all!!

Wed, 06/05/2013 - 15:32 | 3627304 CClarity
CClarity's picture

IMF just the "first mea culpa".
BOJ, ECB, BOE, and the ultimately apologetic, hat in hands, sad face, FED will also acknowledge they didnt and can't fix this. Sorry for leading you on. Good luck with end of empire and all that. You're on your own.
And that's when blood on the streets gets going.

Wed, 06/05/2013 - 14:20 | 3627039 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

"turned it over to a higher power".

Wed, 06/05/2013 - 12:57 | 3626694 SpiceMustFlow
SpiceMustFlow's picture

Love the fucking title

Wed, 06/05/2013 - 12:38 | 3626597 machineh
machineh's picture

Looks more like a menorah, some would say.

Prolly just the Rothschilds' response to the more customary Masonic symbolism.

Wed, 06/05/2013 - 12:35 | 3626585 greyghost
greyghost's picture

greece buys time for 17 other countries. reminds me of the quote from a federal reserve governor in the late fifties. something along these lines.....hold still little fish, we only intend to gut you.

Wed, 06/05/2013 - 13:12 | 3626763 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

What does the misery of a few million debt slaves matter when the integrity of The Great Monetary Experiment is at stake?

Wed, 06/05/2013 - 12:26 | 3626557 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

THANKS FOR TAKING ONE FOR TEAM EU GREECE. (not don't get any ideas Other Member States or we'll Cyprus you...

Wed, 06/05/2013 - 14:33 | 3627072 Colonel Klink
Colonel Klink's picture

Can't wait for someone to come up with a "monetary hot gate" where the world is able to defeat the "chosen" 300.


EDIT:  Oh wait, that's withdrawing your fiat from the banking system and buying silver/gold.

Wed, 06/05/2013 - 12:26 | 3626558 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Lying is the way to profits for the 2%...

Wed, 06/05/2013 - 12:28 | 3626562 doomandbloom
doomandbloom's picture

and your point is...?

Wed, 06/05/2013 - 12:29 | 3626563 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

Yeah, but it's a super duper RICH idiot and STFU!!!1111

Wed, 06/05/2013 - 12:31 | 3626570 ITrustMyGut
ITrustMyGut's picture

IMF is just another in a long laundry list of tools.. to create and complete.. Monopolization. Monopilization of EVERYTHING

my persistent point is this: W Va Coal Mines.

they.. the PTB, are in fact, enslaving the world in an expanded version of the W Va coal mine exitence.

Competition is sin, bitchez!

Wed, 06/05/2013 - 12:31 | 3626571 Its_the_economy...
Its_the_economy_stupid's picture

Telly is angry. Mother country has been screwed.

Wed, 06/05/2013 - 12:55 | 3626684 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture


Wed, 06/05/2013 - 12:32 | 3626575 Downtoolong
Downtoolong's picture

Back in 1982, when oil prices were dropping like a rock, I saw a similar chart from the corporate planning division of a major oil company. The chart showed repetetive forecasts of crude oil prices rising to $100/bl from an ever lower base. I think they finally trashed the chart in frustration when the spot price dipped below $10/bbl. But hey, in retrospect they were 30 years ahead of their time, for all the wrong reasons of course.

Wed, 06/05/2013 - 12:32 | 3626576 RaceToTheBottom
RaceToTheBottom's picture

Almost a "Don't hate me cause I am beautiful" defence

Wed, 06/05/2013 - 12:33 | 3626579 Cacete de Ouro
Cacete de Ouro's picture

At least DSK had his eye on the ball(s)..... or perhaps that was the problem all along..

Wed, 06/05/2013 - 12:34 | 3626583 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

"mired in recession".  sure.  and getting hit over the head with a hammer is just a little cut above the eye......


Wed, 06/05/2013 - 12:34 | 3626584 syntaxterror
syntaxterror's picture

Pump and dump muddafvckas!

Wed, 06/05/2013 - 12:36 | 3626588 eaglerock
eaglerock's picture

I'm sure you could take the last several OMB forecasts for US growth and show the same thing.

Wed, 06/05/2013 - 12:40 | 3626601 NoTTD
NoTTD's picture

My take: This will be used as a pretext to pump yet more worthless cash down the black hole that is Greece, and southern Europe in general.

Wed, 06/05/2013 - 15:23 | 3627285 Bring the Gold
Bring the Gold's picture

And by Southern Europe you of course mean the EU banks, cause Greece et al are just conduits as this article explains straight from the horse's mouth.

Wed, 06/05/2013 - 12:40 | 3626604 Pimp Juice
Pimp Juice's picture

Lagarde is doing to Greece what DSK did to the chamber maid.

Wed, 06/05/2013 - 13:25 | 3626811 falak pema
falak pema's picture

after having done it he paid her a million bucks in damages.

Do you think the IMF will pay the greeks (not their oligarchs) any compensation for having co-masterminded this rape of nation, presented as bad governance by those who were the puppets of EU/IMF over the ten year period when the shit was accumulated on public books by the squid's clients dressed up as people's reps.

The IMF is the public face of Pax Americana oligarchy mayhem.

Wed, 06/05/2013 - 17:00 | 3627590 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

fine, agreed. but rape? Or "or allowing Greece exit from the EUR" allowing? There still is this little matter about popular will

Wed, 06/05/2013 - 12:46 | 3626622 ForWhomTheTollBuilds
ForWhomTheTollBuilds's picture

As much fun as the Tylers are having right now, the way I read that article is that the IMF intends to retract its support for "Austerity", which is to now take the blame for all economic problems everywhere.


Want people to live within their means?  Didn't you see what AUSTERITY did to Greece?  Look at the human suffering you unleashed on them, you Austrian Schooled whackjob!

Just as gold went suddenly in 1971 from being money for 5000 years to being known as an obviously bizzare anachronism championed by weirdo hoarding fetishists, the narrative is changing at a high level and an element of what was common sense is about to be turned on it's head.  Any sort of restraint on money printing, rule bending and bailing-in is about to be removed for good.


They may be idiots and liars but they are about to take a major leadership role in shaping things to come.



Wed, 06/05/2013 - 12:55 | 3626686 RaceToTheBottom
RaceToTheBottom's picture

Free lunches for everyone!!!

Wed, 06/05/2013 - 13:20 | 3626800 geotrader
geotrader's picture



The FED is either leading this charge or not.  Don't be confused.

Thu, 06/06/2013 - 03:46 | 3628923 merizobeach
merizobeach's picture

The Bank of International Settlements is the puppet master of most players at the table, including our dearly hated Chairman.

Wed, 06/05/2013 - 12:46 | 3626627 geotrader
geotrader's picture

In order for a 'strictly confidential' memo to be released, that would mean someone on the *inside* leaked it.  Didn't Julian Assange get in trouble for sharing leaked documents?  Insiders coming out is a good thing.  

Wed, 06/05/2013 - 12:49 | 3626631 IamtheREALmario
IamtheREALmario's picture

Once again, wrong assumptions put out by propagandists. The IMF and international bankers care nothing about the economy, the countries or their people. They only care about creating an environment where they have ultimate power, regardless of anything else. Why else would they intentionally lend money to both sides in a conflcit so that they can fuel genocidal wars (such as those it has funded in Africa)? Whoever wins, the IMF has control over the winners through the debt created.

The only purpose for IMF forecasts, statements and admissions is to hide its real intent.

Wed, 06/05/2013 - 12:46 | 3626632 bdub2
bdub2's picture

"In an internal document marked "strictly confidential," ....

of note, the doc's original title was also scrapped just prior to confidential release: "boy, this is de-escalating quickly" 

Wed, 06/05/2013 - 12:47 | 3626636 TicoTiger
TicoTiger's picture

I stopped believing virtually all "governmental" charts and/or official explainations about the state of the world after 9/11 and also stopped trading stocks, bonds, etc. at that time. Like any other addict financial and status quo withdrawal was difficult and took several years to get control of my life once again, but it sure was worth it.

My secret was to return to basics: clean air, water and food, a nice small property, a bit of gold and silver, and most of all love for my family, while getting as far away from MSM and physcopaths as possible. It is surprising how wealthy in spirit one becomes, even as fiat "wealth" disappears. 

Shh, don't tell anyone.

Wed, 06/05/2013 - 12:55 | 3626688 assistedliving
assistedliving's picture

TT cudnt a said it better myself.  nice post but wrong blog.  any/everyone on this blog is in DEEP, caught looking at that light in the tunnel getting bigger. 

here ya go:

Wed, 06/05/2013 - 13:02 | 3626719 insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

God Bless You, Mr. Rosewater.

Thu, 06/06/2013 - 05:59 | 3629000 MaxThrust
MaxThrust's picture



You could not have said it any better. I have followed the same course as you and your right. Wealth in oneself is something the Global Elites will have a had time foreclosing on.

On another point, The Bank of International Settlements is the over-arching controller of the banking system. Its the reason why Bitcoin will ultimately  fail. If a crypto-curency is to survive is must do so outside the influence of the BIS, and that's the real conundrum and why the elites continue as the gate keepers.

Until we can buy a crypto-currency outside the influence of the traditional banking system the concept is sure to fail.(The Banking sydicate's ban on payments to Wikileaks proved that all to well.) What the answer to this problem is I have no idea, but I trust some smart individuals will eventually come up with a solution.

Wed, 06/05/2013 - 12:53 | 3626668 ziggy59
ziggy59's picture

The Tao of The Lying Basturds

Wed, 06/05/2013 - 12:53 | 3626669 OpTwoMistic
OpTwoMistic's picture

Waiting for the panic. Futures down 200

Wed, 06/05/2013 - 12:58 | 3626698 astoriajoe
astoriajoe's picture

excel error no doubt. I'm sure it's all fixed now. Upward!

Wed, 06/05/2013 - 12:58 | 3626700 Olephant
Olephant's picture

The chart shows very well what they would like to be the truth. Unfortunately it seems reality disagrees with them.

Wed, 06/05/2013 - 19:45 | 3628058 medium giraffe
medium giraffe's picture

Quite.  And they base this staggering turnaround on what, exactly?  Most fighter pilots couldn't pull a high-g move like that without blacking out.

Wed, 06/05/2013 - 12:58 | 3626703 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Margin calls, bitchez.

Wed, 06/05/2013 - 13:06 | 3626735 americanspirit
americanspirit's picture

"Strictly Confidential" means plausible deniability - "We really didn't want anyone to see this", when in fact it is a deliberate plant designed to justify all kinds of new "initiatives". Merely a move on the chess board - and only a few pawns sacrificed so far.

Wed, 06/05/2013 - 19:32 | 3628028 medium giraffe
medium giraffe's picture

Could be.

Banksters coming clean?  Not unless there's some advantage in it for them.  Not. Ever.

Wed, 06/05/2013 - 13:06 | 3626739 kindape
kindape's picture

where was 2012 growth relative to the prediction? can you add that?

Wed, 06/05/2013 - 13:11 | 3626761 Tombstone
Tombstone's picture

What do you expect from a gaggle of Communists that never got past 7th grade?

Wed, 06/05/2013 - 13:24 | 3626817 taraxias
taraxias's picture

Europe has been solved.

Wed, 06/05/2013 - 13:33 | 3626857 dadichris
dadichris's picture

all economists should be exposed as the charlatains that they are. used to be that people blindly followed priests and now they follow economists. remember when Bush said "i'm not an economist. ask an economist" thereby conceding that some economist has more power than the president...

Wed, 06/05/2013 - 13:36 | 3626870 criticalreason
criticalreason's picture

what do u expect from a political organisation? science? truth?

Wed, 06/05/2013 - 13:37 | 3626874 Overflow-admin
Overflow-admin's picture

Tyler, could you please provide an aggregate of your "Oops Divergence GDP-forecast-to-reality" by Nation?


Also: do you have more longer historical datasets or historical records that could be compared to this (all-time-high?) political bullshit?

Wed, 06/05/2013 - 13:38 | 3626880 AGoldhamster
AGoldhamster's picture

who is the IMFs advisor?

and the bankers laugh all the  way to their banks

Wed, 06/05/2013 - 13:40 | 3626888 williambanzai7
williambanzai7's picture

That chart is Lagardes sagging tits.

Wed, 06/05/2013 - 14:27 | 3627065 Balanced Integer
Balanced Integer's picture

Which is one graphic arts topic you should stay faaaaaarrrrrr away from.

Pretty please?

Wed, 06/05/2013 - 15:52 | 3627381 Poor Grogman
Poor Grogman's picture

Im glad you cleared that up, I thought for a minute it was the printer ink futures chart

Wed, 06/05/2013 - 13:44 | 3626907 youngman
youngman's picture

This shows that lies do pay..and I am sure the heads of State in Greece got their Swiss banks accounts full in no time....the people..not so much...but hey..its save the bankers...

Wed, 06/05/2013 - 13:48 | 3626917 TNTARG
TNTARG's picture

What an ackward institution.

It's their modus operandi. We know them well.

IMF Helped Sink Argentine Economy

Wed, 06/05/2013 - 14:41 | 3627131 Balanced Integer
Balanced Integer's picture

Hey, thanks for that link. That was quite enlightening.

Wed, 06/05/2013 - 13:55 | 3626939 semperfi
semperfi's picture

IMF is yet more proof that stupidity, arrogance, and a large ego will go a long way.

Wed, 06/05/2013 - 17:06 | 3627601 Bazza McKenzie
Bazza McKenzie's picture

It wasn't stupidity, it was corruption.  They knew what they were doing, to whom and for whom.

Wed, 06/05/2013 - 14:49 | 3627164 Atomizer
Wed, 06/05/2013 - 14:53 | 3627179 Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

IMF =. International Mother Fu.....ers

Wed, 06/05/2013 - 14:55 | 3627183 Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

Actually, make that Incompetent Mother Fu....ers.

Wed, 06/05/2013 - 15:12 | 3627238 GCT
GCT's picture

When the PIIGS exploded it was always about bank exposure including the U.S. Fed.  All the politicans were doing was covering their bank's asses until they could reduce most of the other countries bank's exposure to this financial armegeddon and nothing more. All at the expense of the common people around the world.  All of these disgusting people should be in jail. Including the MSM hacks that spouted the propaganda for the sheepl day after day.

Many smart people commented on this here at ZH two years ago and they were spot on. I not the sharpest tool in the shed and could see it once I started reading on this site to educate me. 

QE is doing the same dam thing.  No QE and government benefits and the USA would implode and the killing would begin.  What a fucked up world we now live in!

Wed, 06/05/2013 - 15:11 | 3627241 Aurora Ex Machina
Aurora Ex Machina's picture

Don't be jelly that the IMF is using the memes the cool kids do.

Wed, 06/05/2013 - 16:11 | 3627423 Skin666
Skin666's picture

Have you seen this Tyler(s)?


Are TPTB starting to shit themselves over Bitcoin?

By University of Chicago professor Nichloas Plassaras, titled "Regulating Digital Currencies: Bringing Bitcoin Within the Reach of the IMF."

"As Bitcoin continues to grow in popularity and value, it poses an increasingly serious threat to the stability of the foreign currency exchange and, by extension, international commerce. Recall that the IMF was created to tackle two global economic problems: the artificial devaluation of one’s currency to gain an economic advantage; and unstable exchange rates between various currencies. Bitcoin cannot trigger the first concern because the algorithm that supports it prohibits users from artificially manipulating its value. Bitcoin does, however, have the potential to create severe and possibly irreversible fluctuations in the foreign currency exchange. Specifically, Bitcoin poses a liability to the IMF and its member nations in the event it is used in what is referred to as a 'speculative attack' on another currency."


"Herein lies the threat posed by Bitcoin. In the event that a wealthy Bitcoin investor—or a number of Bitcoin investors—launch a speculative attack on a currency, what can be done to counter it? In theory, individual countries could diversify their reserve portfolio by purchasing Bitcoins from an online exchange. But if a central bank’s reserve is unable to absorb the maturity mismatches suffered by its central banks, who can it turn to? The IMF has no supply of Bitcoins; indeed it has almost no way to obtain them directly. The IMF obtains currency via the quota system and the IMF can only collect quotas from its members. Bitcoin is neither a member of the IMF, nor could it become one if it wanted to—IMF membership is only open to nation-states. The IMF could try to purchase its own reserve of Bitcoins, but whose money would it use? Which part of the IMF’s general fund would it deplete? In short, Bitcoin’s potential to become a major player in the foreign currency exchange raises a number of substantial questions for the IMF. In its current state, the IMF would be unable to supply the currency needed to counter the destabilizing effect of a speculative attack by Bitcoin users on a member nation’s currency."

"There are, however, two ways to incorporate Bitcoin into the IMF’s regime. The first option is to grant the IMF indirect control over Bitcoin by expanding the interpretation of an already-existing provision of the IMF. This approach requires the least amount of change and leaves the overall IMF framework mostly intact. The second option is to grant the IMF more direct control over Bitcoin by granting it and other digital currencies quasi-membership status. This more radical approach would require and amendment of the Articles of Agreement and would fundamentally alter the existing framework’s conception of a non-state actor’s role in the IMF."


Running scared of alternatives to the big fucking fiat ponzi...




Wed, 06/05/2013 - 19:41 | 3628045 medium giraffe
medium giraffe's picture

Nice one Skin, thanks for this.


"Specifically, Bitcoin poses a liability to the IMF and its member nations in the event it is used in what is referred to as a 'speculative attack' on another currency"

Sure, just like they regulated speculation in the CHF, or JPY?

"The first option is to grant the IMF indirect control over Bitcoin"

MOAR control!! MOAR!!

Bloody sociopaths.

Thu, 06/06/2013 - 06:10 | 3629010 auric1234
auric1234's picture

I expect we will soon witness the birth of "paper Bitcoin"


Wed, 06/05/2013 - 21:07 | 3628265 DeliciousSteak
DeliciousSteak's picture

Surprising that they started this campaign so early. I would've expected it to start late july or august. Oh well, otherwise things are moving in a very predictable manner.

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