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Worst Month For Mortgage Applications Since 2009 Driving Mass Layoffs

Tyler Durden's picture




 

This morning's 11.5% week-over-week plunge in mortgage applications is the fourth week of fading demand in a row as it appears the bloom is very much off the rose of the second-coming of the housing bubble. This makes it the worst plunge in mortgage applications since June 2009 and the lowest level of activity since December 2011. Wondering how this is possible? We explained in detail here but this collapse in mortgage demand fits perfectly with Mark Hanson's insights that a number of "large private mortgage bankers had mass layoffs last Friday to the tune of 25% to 50% of their operations staff." This all feels very deja vu all over again.

 

Chart: Bloomberg

As Mark Hanson notes,

This morning I was made aware that three large private mortgage bankers I follow closely for trends in mortgage finance ALL had mass layoffs last Friday and yesterday to the tune of 25% to 50% of their operations staff (intake, processing, underwriting, document drawing, funding, post-closing).

 

This obviously means that my reports of refi apps being down 65% to 90% in the past 3 weeks are far more accurate than the lagging MBA index, which is likely on its' way to print multi-year lows in the next month.

The concerning picture is the following:

So if the fast 'dumb-chasing-fast' money is leaving the building (as we explained here), then given this plunge in 'real' mortgage apps, it is not a stretch to expect the new home sales to fill that gap...

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Wed, 06/05/2013 - 09:10 | 3625915 Mentalic
Mentalic's picture

Man !! I have been so used to iOS and Android Apps. for a second I was wondering what kind of app is this and for which OS? :-)

 

 

Wed, 06/05/2013 - 09:11 | 3625919 Spider
Spider's picture

Anybody know the URL for the bloomberg chart on Mortgage applications?

Would be greatly appreciated!

Wed, 06/05/2013 - 09:30 | 3625988 kliguy38
kliguy38's picture

that Malinvestment thing is a bitch aint it Bernank.......you can float a turd only so long before you have to eat it Ben......gl

Wed, 06/05/2013 - 09:37 | 3626014 azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

LIESman was chewing on that turd this morning

Wed, 06/05/2013 - 09:41 | 3626022 Beam Me Up Scotty
Beam Me Up Scotty's picture

"that Malinvestment thing is a bitch aint it Bernank.......you can float a turd only so long before you have to eat it Ben......gl"

Ya they should stop wasting their money shorting gold, and turn the hose back on in the treasury market.  Other option is to print even MOAR and deal with both problems.  How many plates can Bernanke juggle before he drops them all?

Wed, 06/05/2013 - 09:52 | 3626065 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

he is outta here, so i guess he does not give a shit

Wed, 06/05/2013 - 09:11 | 3625918 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

I see no mention of this on Marketwatch.

Funny, that.

Wed, 06/05/2013 - 09:19 | 3625955 Handful of Dust
Handful of Dust's picture

Zynga Posts Record High Lay-Offs; More to Come

 

 

Shares of Zynga (ZNGA) were rocked yesterday on news that the maker of games no one plays anymore would be laying off 18% of its work-force. The roughly 520 layoffs represents a 3.5x increase over the number of employees the company dumped last fall.

 

 

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/zynga-posts-record-high-lay-offs...

 

Yes...well...they did say it is a "Jobless Recovery".....

Wed, 06/05/2013 - 09:58 | 3626094 moonman
moonman's picture

The beauty in that headline is that the vacumn tubes only read the first 4 words.

BULLISH

Wed, 06/05/2013 - 13:56 | 3626945 JuliaS
JuliaS's picture

They should lobby for virtual farm subsidies, start harvesting virtual ethanol... or grow virtual weed for vitrual export. Methlabville - now there's a fresh idea!

They can get paid in bitcoin.

Wed, 06/05/2013 - 10:12 | 3626134 Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

dumb ass americans will never learn...green shoots.......

“The economy is doing a lot better,” Nancy Bush, 56, of San Francisco, said in a follow-up interview. “I feel very encouraged, and maybe it’s just a gut feeling, but I think we’ve made it through a four- or five-year recovery.”

 

"Bush, who is taking a break from her career to raise her children, says she believes that an era of roller-coaster economics has given way to a more stable environment. And the former finance and real estate professional says she sees an improving labor market.

The U.S. has created an average of 196,000 jobs a month this year, government data compiled by Bloomberg show. In the poll, 60 percent of respondents say they don’t need to find a better job. “I feel like work’s out there and I can get a job, if I need to or want to,” Bush says."

 

In St. AlbansNew York, Elizabeth Talamas, 39, says the value of her family’s home has rebounded from its low point amid the 2008 financial crisis.  “We’re really happy it’s back to where it was,” says the stay-at-home mom. “Now, if we have to sell, we’ll get at least what we paid for it.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-06-05/americans-more-secure-in-poll-as-60-see-no-need-for-better-job.html


Wed, 06/05/2013 - 10:43 | 3626233 kchrisc
kchrisc's picture

What are the odds that Ms. Bush even exists?

I say 50/50. Anyone else care to wager?

Wed, 06/05/2013 - 10:54 | 3626262 Dull Care
Dull Care's picture

Not really Mrs. Talamas.

These people are super myopic but then again I also question whether they are real.

Wed, 06/05/2013 - 10:59 | 3626284 The Carbonator
The Carbonator's picture

Maybe those soccer moms need to actually try looking for a job.  What they 'feel' is irreleveant.  What is relevant is how long they have been out of work, and whats the demand (fake or not) for the profession they had before.

 

My wife has been looking for over 6 months.  She has a degree in Finance and 10 years experience in GE (Human Resources).  Still looking, though she has an interview today at a local bank.  She took 7 years off to raise 2 kids, now getting a job is quite difficult because she has been out of work for so long.

 

Ms Bush & Talamas need to ask their husbands whats really going on in the workforce on a day to day basis, that is assuming that they have actual husbands and are not merely married to an EBT card.

Wed, 06/05/2013 - 11:31 | 3626395 TahoeBilly2012
TahoeBilly2012's picture

What a women "feels" is certainly relevant and what she "thinks" is dangerous, so wear a helmet and some padding. 

Wed, 06/05/2013 - 11:38 | 3626426 The Carbonator
The Carbonator's picture

Haha  +1

 

Very true.

Wed, 06/05/2013 - 12:10 | 3626507 Meatier Shower
Meatier Shower's picture

This is the real reason why women make less money than men on average.

Wed, 06/05/2013 - 11:48 | 3626451 tip e. canoe
tip e. canoe's picture

notice the memes gloomberg is pimping and who they're using to pimp them : middle-aged (white?) women.   also notice that the sole dissent comes from a middle-aged (white?) man.

reflexivity rules the rooster?

Wed, 06/05/2013 - 23:30 | 3628603 kareninca
kareninca's picture

Yeah.  They asked people who don't work, and who aren't looking to work.

Well, they'll get cheery answers that way.

If these women in fact exist.

Wed, 06/05/2013 - 09:12 | 3625925 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Maybe we're not doing this right.

Wed, 06/05/2013 - 09:29 | 3625986 Rainman
Rainman's picture

Right. Time to fire up the old NINJA machine !

Wed, 06/05/2013 - 09:48 | 3626035 SamAdams
SamAdams's picture

The Pomo Ninja is going to roundhouse kick reality back into feudal serfdom where it belongs. It will then uppercut Djia to the moon!

I may have the sequencing backward, which is why this sort of thing is best left to Pomo Ninja!

Wed, 06/05/2013 - 09:12 | 3625926 Translational Lift
Translational Lift's picture

OT...so...is the "market" open today??  +11 minutes and still quoting futures........

Wed, 06/05/2013 - 09:13 | 3625932 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

???

um yes, it'll open in 17 minutes, same as it always does...

Wed, 06/05/2013 - 09:14 | 3625939 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

LOL some of us have gone so crazy we are operating in the future.

Wed, 06/05/2013 - 09:24 | 3625972 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

that must be why i see so many "Gold $10,000" posts...

Wed, 06/05/2013 - 09:26 | 3625977 Ignatius
Ignatius's picture

Or a blast from the past...

How many here are seeing the Bluestar Jet leasing banner ads?

Hot tip:  "Bluestar loves Zerohedge...."

Wed, 06/05/2013 - 09:15 | 3625941 Translational Lift
Translational Lift's picture

My bad...........TX 

Wed, 06/05/2013 - 09:14 | 3625938 digitlman
digitlman's picture

Not 9:30am est yet...

Wed, 06/05/2013 - 09:12 | 3625927 FLUSA.com
FLUSA.com's picture

Every buy side of the transaction I represent is Cash and every sale is financed....this leads me to think a lot of people paying cash are going to be holding property longer then they wanted or have to discount to sell.  And if they try to rent the rates are going to come down as a lot of competition has entered the market

Wed, 06/05/2013 - 09:15 | 3625942 duo
duo's picture

If using debt to buy a non-productive asset is considered inflationary, then we have some serious inflation waiting in the wings.

 

Wed, 06/05/2013 - 09:12 | 3625929 Scro
Scro's picture

Damn it, I just purchased 3 condos in Florida last week.

Wed, 06/05/2013 - 09:24 | 3625970 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

next time stick to a housing start.

Wed, 06/05/2013 - 09:37 | 3626016 azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

and you haven't flipped them yet. Speed up there Cowboy

Wed, 06/05/2013 - 09:44 | 3626034 Scro
Scro's picture

It should be all good as long as I have my job at the mini-mart.

Wed, 06/05/2013 - 09:15 | 3625943 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Must....Apply....for Moar....Mortgages....30 yr....Debt Load.....badly needed....With Interest plz.....arrrghhhhh...

Wed, 06/05/2013 - 09:15 | 3625944 yabyum
yabyum's picture

Funny this. The folks I know in RE say it has not been this busy in five years. (SLC, Ut)

Wed, 06/05/2013 - 09:23 | 3625969 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Really? My whole family is in real estate and I've never seen them more gloomy. They haven't turned a dime in months.

Wed, 06/05/2013 - 09:28 | 3625983 Darth Stacker
Darth Stacker's picture

I know all RE is local, but in central Florida things are getting frothy again

Wed, 06/05/2013 - 09:46 | 3626039 FLUSA.com
FLUSA.com's picture

You probably live in Orange County and sale are up @8% yr over yr (MAY) for sales of SF.  The hot markets are still hot.  However, Lake County has seen a 10% drop in SF home sales YOY and building permits have dropped the last 3 month.

Wed, 06/05/2013 - 09:32 | 3625998 Tenshin Headache
Tenshin Headache's picture

You need to read the earlier article on the high level of participation by hedge funds paying cash and buying up entire tracts of residential homes (at the ask). No mortgage needed there and hey, price gets a kick. That game is now unwinding.

SLC is a bit of a special case, too, I'd say. Wonderful city, lived there for 5 years.

Wed, 06/05/2013 - 10:28 | 3626182 TheMeatTrapper
TheMeatTrapper's picture

Remember, both Goldman and NSA are investing heavily there. 

Wed, 06/05/2013 - 09:15 | 3625945 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

My buddy is a real estate attorney and he said his phone has been ringing off the hook with people flipping out at these levels. Imagine if rates go to 4.5% OH MY GOD

Wed, 06/05/2013 - 09:22 | 3625965 OpTwoMistic
OpTwoMistic's picture

Your buddy say if these were cash deals?

Wed, 06/05/2013 - 09:30 | 3625994 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

some. the clients he is referring to though are ones that are going into contract but have not secured a rate yet.

Wed, 06/05/2013 - 09:21 | 3625958 Handful of Dust
Handful of Dust's picture

Wait until rates hit 7%.....action, camera, PANIC !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Wed, 06/05/2013 - 09:40 | 3626023 Cursive
Cursive's picture

@Handful of Dust

 

Unpossible.  The Fed will let SPX, RUT, DJI sink to zero and no credit creation before that happens.  Too high rates would bankrupt the Fed.

Wed, 06/05/2013 - 09:21 | 3625960 Smegley Wanxalot
Smegley Wanxalot's picture

This can't be true because Yahoo says otherwise.

cough cough

Wed, 06/05/2013 - 09:42 | 3626029 Cursive
Cursive's picture

Yeah, they ran a story yesterday about how America is still tops in incomes and housing.  LOL.

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