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Initial Claims Come Right On Top Of Expectations
Anyone anticipating some earth-shattering release from the DOL in its weekly initial claims report as a guide what to expect tomorrow was disappointed following the release of a 346K print today, which was about as close to the 345K expected without the DOL losing all credibility. This followed last week's naturally upward revised 354K to 357K print, although the problem is that it appears this was it for the 'downward trend' in initial claims which goes back to the thesis that 7.5% unemployment is the new 4.4% unemployment. Continuing claims came better than expected at 2952K on 2974K expected. Also, damn it doesn't feel good to be a government worker - "there were 17,862 former Federal civilian employees claiming UI benefits for the week ending May 18, an increase of 551 from the previous week." Blame the sequester. There was no good news for veterans either: "Newly discharged veterans claiming benefits totaled 35,944, an increase of 614 from the prior week." Bottom line: a nebulous report which provides zero additional insight into what to expect in tomorrow's NFP and thus zero color into what the Fed may do with... "THE TAPER" dun dun dun.
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I seriously doubt unemployment has anything to do with what the fed does. It is just a ruse.
Justification for "Tapering". Unemployment will miraculously drop to 6% and Feds will announce the end of QE and the Start of EQ (Easing of Qurrency).
Exactly buzz, the total employed to total population ratio is what matters...and that hasn't moved a muscle since 2009. Welcome to the new normal
Those veterans stats are scary.. can't we find a new war to start?
History may well repeat here soon:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xkmo4ygPTjc
More detailed version:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IiMuzkpT8Xs
I have hired as many of my brethren as I can afford to, but I still know many veterans who, when they could not find work, have started getting creative and are teaching shooting classes. There seems to be a very serious damand there, I wonder why? A good friend has been helping many "get to know" their ARs and he has helped them "trick them out". In the end, could be a good thing. After all, don't you think the locals should be just as well equipped as the local authorities? Personally, I do, after all, those who want government to insure their freedom and security, deserve neither.
Thank you for helping our troops returning home. It's both sad and ridiculous seeing there is so much work that needs to be done in this country on infra-structure and making American manufacturing more competative yet so much of our GDP goes to the banksters and China!
Now that it's a global economy, things are indeed more complex. However, I have yet to get an answer to a simple question. Let's all be optimistic, let's say the entire world becomes an efficient producer like Germany and employment goes way up. Tell me, who is the earth selling it's manufactured goods to and what are they offering us of real value in exchange for all the resources and energy we consumed making those products?
There are limits folks, and with 7+ billion people (and growing) on this planet, there is plenty of demand. This is the real discussion, no one wants to have.
I suggest the reason we don't have this conversation is this: it has nothing to do with value, economics or resource depletion. It has to do with control and no one wants to shine a light on being the controller nor slave.
Obviously, the population is too great and is going to waste resources, causing shortages, famine and disease. However, it does act as a brake on liberty and living standards.
Taxation is increased, war is increased, environmental damage is amplified. All prime needs for the control and determination of excess populations. All necessary for the institution of global government.
The solution is to eliminate the cause: control mechanisms that allow a small minority to command the huge majority. These are simple to identify: central government, central banks, media and judicial control.
This is all going along according to plan, rest assured, those that believe us to be their "mules" are hard at work creating the new seat of global government: Jerusalem.
"This is all going along according to plan, rest assured, those that believe us to be their "mules" are hard at work creating the new seat of global government: Jerusalem. " - Indeed, good luck with that.
presented without comment....other than i'll be buying more today....
http://www.kitco.com/charts/livesilver.html
Its a shitty indicator that provides little to no insight on the true emplpyment picture. Its all a ruse!
Getting ready for Friday. Grab some popcorn and a soda.
b2u.......are you really planning to see fast and furious 6????????....i hear the flick isnt that good.........it will fall short of your expectations....................
Say whatever they want month to month to manipulate expectations, add the whole remainder at year end when everyones not lookin and on Xmas vacation.
Anyone even trust the Bureau of Lies and Scams anymore?
fed promises to keep jacking off jamie dimon until the temperature on venus is reduced 12%
Tomorrow will one big giant non event. 150k print of something right down the line. They won't change anything until they figure out who will replace Bernanke. Still waiting for CNBC to ask what is so important that he can't make it to jackson hole, and who and what will be happen in it's place.
perhaps, but the treasury market seems not to be co-operating. look at that spike in yields this AM. So many holes in the dike, so few fingers. No POMO tomorrow.
http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/10_year
If the TBTF recipients of Ben's liquidity tsunami are ordered to rotate back to bonds to keep the deficit and housing markets from re-imploding, should we dust off the Dow 10,000 hats?
tbtf gives orders, they don't take 'em
They can keep spinning and lying all the want I guess, but at this point no one's left to buy their scam and presidencies and agencies are ensnared in scandal. It's not 2010 anymore.
I dont think you are going to see a 150K print.... I think you will see negative to at best a 50K print. reasons
1) The evil sequester must be undone.....
2) Start setting the table for more instead of less printing by late summer.
3) Kill off taper talk
4) They seem to want to start talking equities down...
What effect does bad news have on the stock market?
well, if the numbers are decent tomorrow, the pullback in the ALMIGHTY DOW will be complete and 16,000 will once again be on the radar.........
Perhaps, but no POMO tomorrow.
If the "markets" go to 16,000, they will be taking gold with them. Everyone bought the dip (in physical) right?
They didn't call it a dip back when I bought most of it.
laws, i still think gold prices stay flat to down for the remainder of the year................which should be fine for people that are purchasing bullion......but there is no question the ALMIGHTY DOW cranks higher to 16,000 by years end............................still too much disillusioned momentum by the money men who are giving up their churches synagogues for the altar of equities................................
Kito I have a turkey sandwich that says the end of the year dow is below 16k. I will even say it is lower than 15k.
bring it fonz......the bet is on.............funny thing is that im rooting against myself.....but nonethless.................it is what it is...............this ship isnt going down until 2015.....................................but the bet is any sandwich...........im not big on turkey.........i will go the route of fresh mutz, roasted red pepper, marinated eggplant with balsamic vinegar on fresh italian bread............................
I like your sandwich better anyway. Let's go with it.
The only reason I offered it is exactly because you are betting against yourself. I find when I do that, it ends up being the only time I get it right. I can't put a time stamp on anything anymore. I think your intuition is correct and where you screwed yourself, like I always do....is time stamping it. But we shall see.
im so sure about 2015 that if im wrong, i will have FrancisSawyer convert me to christianity and baptize me.................and i will adopt otto skorzeny as my godfather........................
Is it 2015 because of that book you read?
i thought you wouldve read it by now??????
I'm not religious Kito. I'm not an aethiest per say, maybe I'm closer to Buddhism than anything else. So I don't get into all those religious prognostications. Some guy could fart in Syria right now and it the other guy could be offended by the smell and we end up in a nuclear war tomorrow.
not a religious thing...im absolutely not religious.....dogma is for the dogs.....its the eerie coincidental events that line up in an uncanny way............
You trust these coincidences that much? That is a fancy sandwich.
no but this ship is going down no matter what...and i dont think they can hold for more than another year or two....so i pick 2015........if im right, tyler will give me a space next to his special little brother who runs phoenix capital.........................................
feh!
that is goyish kito.......
'DOW 16,000' for what purpose? What does that get them? 'Buy time'? No one knows the Maniacal Monetizers timeline.
My thoughts; The DOW will not reach 16,000 by years end, unless bonds catch a bid. Watch asia, if things get ugly enough in their markets, then maybe. Same as it ever was in the thousand year old financial war...
but there is no question the ALMIGHTY DOW cranks higher to 16,000 by years end
Empty prognostication. Conjecture about the level of one index in isolation - or one security - is for the Stuttering Stanleys on CNBC. Give us a story about where you think the DOW, the EURUSD, the USDJPY, treasury yields, gold, oil, wheat, and the rest of the complex will be and WHY. Otherwise, you are just talking up one space on the roulette board.
indeed, but sovereign debt is still the most liquid market by far.
that one space mayhem is THE space....the space that occupies the psyche of the masses......it NEEDS to stay green to keep confidence up............to keep masses happy with the illusion they are rich enough to keep themselves perpetually indebted.................
What is your prognostication of the attendant 10yr yield with the Dow > 16K? If it takes a rotation away from Treasuries to support that level of equities, interest rates are going to climb even faster, which will grab people's attention dramatically when housing prices relapse. And will the Nikkei continue its bear-slide into oblivion, or are you suggesting Abe is going to print fast enough to keep the USDJPY above 100?
I'm just looking to see if you have thought through the implications of what you're saying. Things are really fragile and the unsustainability of the whole thing is manifesting itself increasingly as an inability to levitate all things simultaneously.
the illusion they are rich enough to keep themselves perpetually indebted.................
Excellent. Oh, the sweet irony.
I think very good numbers tomorrow means treauries sell off, and the market tanks. Very bad numbers tomorrow and the market may try to QE rally but then flops. Mediocre numbers and we just stagnate around here and chop lower.
I will be wrong.
All I know is that DOW at 16,000 means that
"Stocks are cheap" and i need to "get in now".
Gotta run MSNBC is back on
Propaganda officials now realize how serious this all is. Must get their stories straight, less the algos take them to the cleaners. Oh how society has "advanced"....
I remain long black markets and sharecropping...
"Weekly US Unemployment benefits drop to 346,000, a level consistent with steady job growth - @AP"
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHA!
" comes on expectations" ? Central banker squirts on Goldiloks?
I just want to add how disappointed I am with those veterans returning from the wars; don't they know how bad the job market is? And those students graduating from college....well they should just stay where they are.