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Less People Working Now Than A Year Ago; Gallup Warns Recent Job Gains Not Sustained In May

Tyler Durden's picture




 

As the world waits breathless for some Goldilocks print in tomorrow's non-farm payroll data, Gallup's most recent survey of employment trends does not paint a pretty picture for the real economy. Though, by the 'adjustment bureau' and their Arima-X goal-seeking, nothing is ever clear, not only is the payroll-to-population (the number of people working) worse than a year ago but the unemployment rate is also rising with under-employment - at 18.0% - near 15 month highs. If the NFP print plays out in line with this, the estimate of 165k will be woefully over-optimistic, leaving the question of whether bad-is-good, or have we crossed the Rubicon of belief in moar is better.

 

Via Gallup:

The U.S. Payroll to Population employment rate (P2P), as measured by Gallup, worsened in May, dropping to 43.9%, from 44.5% in April. P2P is also down from May 2012, when it was 44.4%

The decline in P2P versus 2012 indicates that fewer people worked full-time for an employer this May compared with a year ago. The 43.9% found this May is similar to the 43.7% recorded in 2011 and 44.0% in 2010.

Gallup's P2P metric is an estimate of the percentage of the U.S. adult population aged 18 and older who are employed full time by an employer for at least 30 hours per week. P2P is not seasonally adjusted.

...

Gallup's unadjusted unemployment rate for the U.S. workforce was 7.9% for the month of May, a half-point increase over April, and statistically unchanged from May 2012 (8.0%).

Gallup's seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate for May was 8.2%, up from 7.8% in April.

Trend: Gallup Adjusted and Unadjusted Unemployment Rate Trend, January 2011-May 2013

Underemployment, as measured without seasonal adjustment, was 18.0% in May, up from 17.5% in April, but unchanged from May 2012 (18.0%). Gallup's U.S. underemployment rate combines the percentage of adults in the workforce who are unemployed with the percentage of those who are working part time but looking for full-time work.

Trend: Gallup's U.S. Underemployment Rate, Monthly Averages

 

Implications

The decline in P2P and the increase in unemployment that Gallup finds in May contrasts with the improvements in both seen in April. The strong year-over-year improvements seen in April were not sustained in May, and the size of the workforce, P2P, and unemployment rate are virtually the same as or in worse shape than a year ago.

 

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Thu, 06/06/2013 - 15:37 | 3631100 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

This is so surprising considering how much money well-paid consumers have.

\sarc

Thu, 06/06/2013 - 15:53 | 3631147 Fleecer
Fleecer's picture

Good work today Kevin.

Ben, you may need to start bringing him in at noon though.  Almost got away from you today.

Thu, 06/06/2013 - 15:54 | 3631152 Divided States ...
Divided States of America's picture

Also more sheeples day trading now and flipping houses than a year ago. Also more female university students whoring as a full time job than a year ago.

Thu, 06/06/2013 - 16:35 | 3631309 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

RE:

Also more female university students whoring as a full time job than a year ago.

More female students in debt = bullish for strip clubs and their employment market

Thu, 06/06/2013 - 17:21 | 3631467 CrashingDollars
CrashingDollars's picture

Competition is good for the consumer, so I consider this a win for me.

Thu, 06/06/2013 - 20:56 | 3632065 AldousHuxley
AldousHuxley's picture

until you marry one.

then she quits her "job"

and plays with babies

Thu, 06/06/2013 - 15:57 | 3631166 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

I'll show you work.

Perry County Florida is home to a Ripley's Believe It or Not Winner.

A 24 year old grandmother.  Yes,  that's right.  She got knocked up at 11, delivered at age 12 and now her daughter has followed the family tradition.  As she told the locals, she wasn't upset that her 11 year old got pregnant.  It's another check.

Why the fuck would anyone work?

Thu, 06/06/2013 - 16:06 | 3631199 Son of Loki
Son of Loki's picture
Caterpillar begins layoffs at Decatur plant

 

DECATUR, Ill. -- Caterpillar executed the first round of massive layoffs at its Decatur plant on Wednesday.

The 460 layoffs were announced in April.  Wednesday morning those employees were escorted from the building. http://www.cinewsnow.com/news/local/Caterpillar-begins-layoffs-at-Decatu... ...and in other news, MSM reports consumer confidence is up again.....
Fri, 06/07/2013 - 09:45 | 3633418 jerry_theking_lawler
jerry_theking_lawler's picture

I go to this town often.....8 months ago, I heard stories of people working massive amounts of OT and the town seemed active...went there a few weeks ago and the place is almost like a ghost town....

 

channel stuffing is over, now to real life.

Thu, 06/06/2013 - 15:39 | 3631103 ebworthen
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Maybe the fudged good job number was leaked today to levitate markets (?).

Employment sucks, but I have faith in the ability of the BLS to BS the jobs numbers, and leak them Thompson/Reuters style - just 15 hours early versus 15 milliseconds.

Thu, 06/06/2013 - 15:57 | 3631165 Divided States ...
Divided States of America's picture

thats what i was thinking too...look at this close....smells like a leaked report ramp....and of course there is no planned POMO tomorrow because a GOOD fudged NFP will be the nitro needed to spank the markets up another 200 points.

Thu, 06/06/2013 - 17:43 | 3631509 Loucleve
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I believe the late day ramp in stocks today was because they know the NFP will be bad.

Kind of cushion the blow.  If we had closed lower today, and then got a really bad number, it could have been horrendous on Friday.

Thu, 06/06/2013 - 15:39 | 3631105 ghostfaceinvestah
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I predict lots of part time jobs will be created out of full time jobs to avoid Obamacare

Thu, 06/06/2013 - 15:48 | 3631131 azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

Fuck You Bernanke

Thu, 06/06/2013 - 20:45 | 3632025 Midasking
Midasking's picture

We are heading into something few people can comprehend thanks to the Bernank! I wouldn't want to be him... the natives are getting restless... check out frogpots.com

Thu, 06/06/2013 - 16:13 | 3631221 Joe_in_Indiana
Joe_in_Indiana's picture

That trend is happening already and will continue.

Fri, 06/07/2013 - 09:47 | 3633428 jerry_theking_lawler
jerry_theking_lawler's picture

Ahha! The truth is out!

Part time work will increase, so there will be more jobs created (2 people for each role). The hours worked and wages will decrease.

This will be simple to see in the numbers and will indicate the effects of Obammynocare. bullish? no.

Thu, 06/06/2013 - 15:40 | 3631109 Clowns on Acid
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What difference does it make. Some live some die. We at the Fed and TBTF will live.

Thu, 06/06/2013 - 15:42 | 3631115 CaptainSpaulding
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You work for the Fed? Oy Vey

Thu, 06/06/2013 - 15:43 | 3631118 krispkritter
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Of course...he's a clown on acid...who else is more qualified?

Thu, 06/06/2013 - 15:48 | 3631132 Clowns on Acid
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So happy you guys are quick enough to comprehend the humor...

Thu, 06/06/2013 - 15:42 | 3631116 CDNX fan
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I have every expectation that Bennie wants to cool out the stock market bubble so that his legacy remains intact. Taper means make stocks go down so I don't look like a Wall Street shill. Market is going to go lower til month-end.

Thu, 06/06/2013 - 15:45 | 3631125 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

anyone see this guy Howard Lutnik from Canter Fitzgerald right now? what a midget troll. They are trying to go for Teper moment again. disgusting.

Thu, 06/06/2013 - 15:52 | 3631142 Hippocratic Oaf
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That would be no, fonz.

I'm forced to watch the shit, I hope yours is optional.

We're the only 2

Thu, 06/06/2013 - 15:54 | 3631150 Hippocratic Oaf
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I swear to fuckin god I want to punch Maria right in the cunt!

Thu, 06/06/2013 - 15:59 | 3631169 machineh
machineh's picture

But it will dissolve your forearm ...

Thu, 06/06/2013 - 15:47 | 3631127 l1b3rty
l1b3rty's picture

Food stamps are workin fine...

 

Http://goldsilverbitcoin.com

Thu, 06/06/2013 - 15:49 | 3631135 Steve in Greensboro
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Less people working?  Is that by height or weight?  Are we talking about the cast of the remake of "The Wizard of Oz"?

Thu, 06/06/2013 - 16:18 | 3631246 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Sorry, it was me. Thanks to marksdailyapple.com I've lost 25 lbs in the last year. Then again, there isn't any "work" to be done where I'm at, so... who knows?

Thu, 06/06/2013 - 22:05 | 3632304 Common_Cents22
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Mark Sisson rocks!  Grok paleo baby!

Thu, 06/06/2013 - 15:49 | 3631136 thismarketisrigged
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u know that they are going to announce a totally fake number tomorrow.

 

i would not be surprised if they say unemployment rate fell to 7.3 and jobs added was like 220,000.

 

those numbers are clearly fake,but the market needs a spark, so the criminals will do everything in their power to make sure it gets one.

Thu, 06/06/2013 - 15:55 | 3631160 Sabibaby
Sabibaby's picture

Why lie? If the numbers are terrible that means QE4Eva which is the only spark this market needs.

Thu, 06/06/2013 - 22:06 | 3632310 Common_Cents22
Common_Cents22's picture

they can come up with any number they want, by messing w/ the participation rate figure.

 

Kinda like GM and ramp sales by just stuffing the channel forcing stealerships to take on more inventory

Thu, 06/06/2013 - 15:53 | 3631146 Jason T
Jason T's picture

writing has been on the wall all year long.. aprils jobs report was a disaster

Thu, 06/06/2013 - 15:54 | 3631149 Meat Hammer
Meat Hammer's picture

Jobs.  Payrolls.  Markets.

As Archie Bunker and Edith (God rest her soul) used to say...those were the days.  

Thu, 06/06/2013 - 15:56 | 3631163 Macrodude
Macrodude's picture

For the title, it should be "fewer," not "less."

Thu, 06/06/2013 - 15:56 | 3631164 seek
seek's picture

Would be nice if those charts went back to 2007. They look almost normal now, but when you see that drop on the 5-year, you know it's anything but.

Thu, 06/06/2013 - 16:11 | 3631210 Clowns on Acid
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"Verizon Communications is top gainer in Dow today" - Feds must be paying pretty well for all that data...

Thu, 06/06/2013 - 16:15 | 3631234 adr
adr's picture

Verizon partnered with the NFL to broadcast games on Verizon cell phones. Even though that has been available on Sprint for five years.

THE MOB MUST HAVE THEIR CIRCUS!!!!!!

good for at least 9000% to the upside on Verizon.

Thu, 06/06/2013 - 16:14 | 3631224 adr
adr's picture

So only 44% of working age people have a full time job, AND THIS IS SEEN AS GOOD?

Wonder what percentage of the 44% is full time minimum wage jobs, 50%-60%?

Could it really be that only 15% of working age people outside government work have a full time job that pays more than minimum wage?

Looking around I'd probably say yes, that wouldn't be far off.

Thu, 06/06/2013 - 16:14 | 3631229 Quantum Nucleonics
Quantum Nucleonics's picture

Did someone get the jobs report leaked just before 1pm ET when the market pivoted?  Using the bad is good theorem means tomorrows report will be a disaster.

Thu, 06/06/2013 - 16:21 | 3631258 gatorengineer
gatorengineer's picture

Twas beautifully executed today Benny let a few more shorts on, and then melt their faces......  shows you what 5 B and chopper can do....  The equivalent of a financial drone strike....

 

Wonder if Abe was watching....  Hes setting the table for a face melting Nikkei short squeeze, not sure if it will be tonight with what the Yen did today....  but soon.....

 

They aint going out peacefully boys...

Thu, 06/06/2013 - 16:28 | 3631280 PFO
PFO's picture

"The decline in P2P versus 2012 indicates that fewer people worked full-time for an employer this May compared with a year ago."

The charts herein do not reflect the "non-employee / non-employer" numbers of Americans who refuse anymore to 'work for the man.'

http://www.census.gov/econ/nonemployer/index.html

Millions of Americans are escaping the federal plantation by revoking the 'power of attorney' of their 'socialist insecurity' numbers and leaving the:

satanic-feminist-pedophile-savage capitalist-consumer credit-culture of death

Thu, 06/06/2013 - 16:59 | 3631385 cynicalskeptic
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REAL unemployment is over 24% - we're worse that the Great Depression peak in 1932 of 23.8%   see shadowstats.com.

 

Food stamps and Unemployment are the only reason you're not seeing soup kitchen lines... oh wait....what's the line outside the local church?   My bad.

Thu, 06/06/2013 - 17:16 | 3631456 Atticus Finch
Atticus Finch's picture

"Less People Working Now..." ????

There are probably Fewer  people working now as well.

Less is for volume like water or fuel. Fewer is the correct use for individuals and items.

Perhaps, the English language changed while I wasn't looking.

 

Thu, 06/06/2013 - 18:00 | 3631537 I need Another Beer
I need Another Beer's picture

For the what its worth department - After 34 years of employment, 20 at my latest gig, I was laid off [06/09] with no prospects. Obummer was elected and I knew I was screwed. I had interviews and job offers that were rescinded within 3 days because "corporate said freeze on all hiring".

In 10/2012 I was employed finally. My friends said they could see a physical and mental change in my person. I spent 3.5 yrs unemployed, unable to sleep, scrimping every damn penny. Friends said I didn't smile and I was more of my usual asshole self than usual. I was fortunate in the regard that I had no kids to support etc... I was fortunate that I haven't owned a new vehicle since 1989. I was wily enough to use a lot of resources that most people would not.

My point is , I hope those recently unemployed by the current POS knew it was coming and prepared in advance as I did. I hope they can keep their minds together and realize that things could be a whole lot worse than being broke. I hope they can prioritize and treat each day as one.

I hope they don't drink as much beer as I did, and I wish them all the luck, sunshine and fish that bite.

Thu, 06/06/2013 - 21:54 | 3632268 Manipuflation
Manipuflation's picture

+1 for the screen name.:-)  In my field, job turnover is quite high so no compete agreements are the norm.  There are few people who possess the field of expertise and education that I have in my niche area.(horticulture).  I am ready to go into a somewhat different aspect because it is more lucrative.  Yes, I will have to learn a few new things about a different aspect of the business but I can easily do that.  I have already made the decision to quit my job because I can see that the hitleresque sociopathic micro-management is going to run the company into the ground.  I have only been there a year but see what they are doing by shuffling money back and forth between shell companies and they are not particularly good at hiding it.  I really do not want to be part of that and not profit from it.

Nearly every section of the contractual agreement I signed when accepting the position has been violated by the employer to an extreme degree.  I went along with it to help save the company money but now I can not perform the job I was originally hired to do because the temporary change has became a permanent change because they like the cost savings I provide while at the same time still expecting me to outperform my actual job description.  That is not possible and their ears are deaf.  They figured out that I was capable of more than what they hired me to do and are trying to exploit that.  These jackasses clearly do not understand economics.  I can not devote half of my day to doing something that I was not hired to do and yet perform what I WAS hired to do at the level initially indicated in the employment contract.  Yet I am being reprimanded on a nearly daily for it without the value added being considered and that is not right. 

I sometimes am asked to do corporaty things that I have never done before, have never had any company policy training on and if I make a minor mistake, I get bitched out by accounting and the tard GM.  I have seen our accounting staff just fucking off for what appears to be all day long on numerous occasions for this tax write off of a company.  If our network go down, guess who they ask to fix it?  Something breaks, guess who they call?  Delivery?  Guess who? (Using my own vehicles).  Point of sale?  The other two people who have the exact same position title as I do and have worked for the company longer than I have, have no idea how to run POS and could not invoice an order if they tried.(same as GM)  Wow!  I am held to a different standard yet sales figures are not that dissimilar overall.  The original job description was for me to be in commercial horticultural sales including outside sales.  I tend to be loyal but things have gone too far and it is time to reconsider.

 

It is one thing to work your ass off to build your own business but it is quite another to build it for someone else and get bitched at in return and not profit.  There is more but that is enough.  And a few of you will note that this not my normal style of post.  I have discussed the situation with my family and they have listened and agreed that there are issues.  ZH is a family of sort too so I value your opinions.  Should I give the customary two weeks notice or should I make it hurt?  I really have no need to list this company as a future job reference and could care less about that. 

The last employer and I departed with featured civil words in a kind way after seven years upon departure.  That was one thing, this is quite another.  This requires asshurt for the GM because he is a full retard but I do not want to threaten the employment status of others.(who are just as disgruntled by the way)  How to do that without the store being closed and the others losing their jobs.(who are simply just getting by)  90% of May's revenue came from me.  Perhaps it is unavoidable anyway at this point... but I still have to consider how my actions might affect others.  This GM should be fired but not all of the employees because they all try really hard.  I see that.  If they were doing a shitty job I would have made sure they were gone right away.

It's the Peter Principle in action yet again.  There are so many inept people in positions of upper management of "businesses" AND 'government" these days that it is no wonder why we are so fucked.   

 

Thu, 06/06/2013 - 18:17 | 3631556 Manipuflation
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I know where there is going to be a decent paying job pretty soon.  Mine.  Because I am planning on quitting soon.  I know the owner of another company who has been trying to get me to come work for him as a general manager for over a year now.  I helped him build his business over the last eight years which has been no small feat.  I delivered some product to him today and we talked.  I will have an offer. 

Without a bunch of asshurt, let's just the new general manager is micromanaging sociopath.  Right now, I am just deciding how badly I want to screw this guy because if I do this correctly, he will lose every customer I ever brought in and likely another employee too.  And I have e-mails from this douche, lots and lot of e-mails.  Some timestamped at 3 AM.(quite a few actually)  I think it is time to do little file transferring to a folder on my personal computer.

Thu, 06/06/2013 - 18:37 | 3631590 Antifaschistische
Antifaschistische's picture

Remember:   "Unemployement" is just a ratio.   A ratio with a numerator and a denominator.

When we nationalize a few million previously illegals we bolster the denominator and reduce the "unemployement" ratio automatically.  It's like a magical gift to the unemployement ratio...even when net "employed" has been steadily declining all last year as PROVEN by the IRS return statistics.

The numerator is just a smoke screen.   The entire ratio itself is a slight-of-hands piece of nonsense that appears to work for the algo's who ignore IRS revenue numbers.

Thu, 06/06/2013 - 20:36 | 3631993 broken87
broken87's picture

EVERYONE SHUT THE FUCK UP! AMERICA!!!! AMERICAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!! *GUITAR RIFF? SOLO*

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!