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Massive 3:30 PM Ramp Puts Silver Lining On Unprecedented FX Fireworks
Quite a day in the markets but for those who turn on the six-o-clock news tonight - all is well in the world - Dow +78! Overnight weakness in Japan spilled over into Europe and so began the inkling of JPY-based levered trade unwinds. European high-beta risk was shellacked and as US opened JPY's strength accelerated and credit markets opened significantly gap wider (worse). Equity futures began to tumble and this weakness escalated through the open climaxing as Europe closed. JPY crashed and stocks collapsed soon after the EU close in what seemed very liquidation-driven moves but as soon as Europe was closed - and despite no follow-through from the JPY - equities were ramped magically back to overnight highs (on low volumes). It seems VIX and HYG were the ramping weapons of choice. Dow 15,000 appeared to be all that mattered as we head into the NFP tomorrow - but perhaps investors forgot that a) Japan opens in a 4 hours, b) Europe opens in 11 houors, and c) The 'Taper' talk is the fed jawboning us off the exuberance band-wagon - it is not about NFP.
JPY-carry was all that mattered - until it didn't.. When Europe closed... US was bid
Credit markets gapped down at the open and then were ripped tighter to start the run this afternoon...
FX markets were the most unbelievable - with JPY's biggest gain in 3 years...
Everything changed as Europe closed... and then - overall the last hour or so in stocks was just nuts VIX collapse-driven craziness as no other risk asset moved...
and the Nikkei didn't play along with US equities either...
Today's swings would have taken the shine off JPY as a carry funding
vehicle for a while - so now what - TSY 2s10s30s? WTI curve?Doesn't seem that way...
So evidently it was VIX (see above) that was used to lever equities higher - but the heavily shorted HYG was the bigger correlated weapon - HYG had its best day of the year today!!!!! After touching the low price point of the rally early on... Squeeeeze... on heavy volume...
It seems our earlier advice was heralded - since HYG was 9 sigma cheap to the SPY... though we suggest the arb not the outright
Charts: Bloomberg
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FX basically went GAA-GAA; today. Pretty funny actually.
This sets up well for another punch in the face to the dip buyers tomorrow. They surely deserve it.
Agree. "Everybody has a plan, until they get punched in the face". famous fighter guy; getting oldtimers for names.
How much debt is added to the national debt every time there is a ramp up?
And what has been the accumulated costs?
King Doellar! RAHRAHRAH!
Absorootrey reedickurous...
I laughed, I cried, I shit the bed!
I hope EVERY day is as fun and exciting as today was!
Another day, another stick save by some guy on Ben's speed dial.
"If we give you $1.2 billion for 0% will you throw it at the S&P?"
"Sure Ben, we get to keep the profits again right? And can have another billion tomorrow?"
"Of course, just get 1600 back at all cost."
"Done and done my good friend. Remind me to send you another 13 year old Cambodian boy for your birthday."
Shit. That sounds about right. What a world.
http://blog.quantsig.net/2013/06/06/sp-10/
LOL
What does this mean? First they did the squeeze down then up?
I can perfectly imagine, often enough, they don't really care where the market is, it's about squeezing as much money out as possible. That's why the defense of 15k or 1600 'failed' pretty easily.
Don't try to make sense of it. You cannot, I cannot. Nobody can.
Just understand that bubble economics doesn't make sense to begin with, unless you are somehow the one who manages where the bubbles are.
This gets my vote at the most fvcked up headline I have seen in a long time re. this FARCE of a market:
U.S. Stocks Advance on Stimulus Bets Before Jobs Report
By Nikolaj Gammeltoft & Jonathan Morgan - Jun 6, 2013
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-06-06/u-s-stock-futures-advance-befor...
And in that article was a very insightful quote: “The U.S. markets are going through a transition from being liquidity driven to a rally based on fundamental data and that’s a very bumpy ride,” Andres Garcia-Amaya, global market strategist at JP Morgan Funds, where he helps oversee about $400 billion, said via phone. “Investors are trying to figure out whether we are now pricing in earnings and the jobs situation or whether it’s still the Fed leading markets. So we’re slowly taking off the training wheels and that makes things a little wobbly.”
I meant to paste that excerpt in my post. I can not believe someone had the GALL to actually say something like that. Are we also to believe today's closing S&P 500 level is reasonably priced based upon... wait for it... wait for it... fundamental data... In reality, US Macro data points to a much lower S&P 500.
Pure Crapola article.
FUBAR.
please, there is no market for true price discovery. We all know that, we are simply front-running idiocracy now.
Agreed. My rhetorical question re. current valuations being based upon fundamentals was sarcasm.
Printing can never end, unless debt is forgiven, period. Who will buy treasuries with real inflation (health care, food, fuel, education...) running >10%.
Tick tock motherfuckers;
http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/10_year
Training wheels you say?
(And yes, that was the best quality I could find in a 3 minute window - CopyRight gone wild! No matter that small HD snippets actually sell your content, let's all go M.A.D. for algos!)
Man, that's some weak shit. Amazing to think of people having JPMorgan manage their money; I wonder how that works out for them?
So the fake employment numbers were "released" early to the boys sitting on the freshly printed money.?
I wonder what they actually do with all the shares they buy??
they use made up money to buy the "assets" and then promptly shred them. They cost nothing to buy, cost nothing to remove, and fewer assets with more fiat = wealth effect.
Unfortunately they also collect a fuckload of fees and enrich themselves in the process. Roll the motherfucking guillotines already. nothing changes otherwise.
Gilloutines are too heavy and cumbersome. Good strong rope and a tree can do the job.
.
Kevin Henry! Your mother is going to be so proud of you she will put today's ES chart on the refridgerator. Nicely done, dicksuck!
(Jim Kirk, circa 1965)
Must... Keep...Dow....Above......Fifteen......Thousand
Fif....Teen....Thousand.....
Aaaaaah!
"CON!!!"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8EnsUeR2MyI
(link opens in new window/tab)
NFP is a manipulated number. I would say that there is at least a 90% chance that NFP beats tomorrow as markets have been weak.
They're working on it as we speak; couple changes to cells in Excel, formula adjustments.
Getting it to come out to what they told the TBTF banks and hedgies at 3:00 p.m. Eastern over the secret wire.
Ummm, could it be as simple as NFP is already in the hands of the chosen few.....
it would be nice to know who all have the NFP #s this afternoon
to parahrase ... it's a small club and you're not in it. George Carlin
Much as I think everything is leaked to at least a few parties, I don't think this afternoon had anything to do with NFP leaking.
We had a range-bound, lackluster session until JPY exploded, and the 1:00 pump was started by buy orders sitting at the 50-day MA, a natural place for those not expecting a full-blown "correction" as a logical spot to buy the current dip. Nothing falls in a bull market without a few 'bargain hunting' sessions, and it simply didn't make sense for another big down day before NFP, which could be an inflection point for the rest of the summer. In other words, as we'd already come off the highs a few %, plastering it further without seeing tomorrow's figures wasn't advisable (at least according to those in control, not necessarily my own view).
but the hard break at 98ish on JPY is hard to ignore; i was watching at 98 and JPY definitely impacted SPY; i agree that when 1600 didnt break a bounce was inevitable
Can't disagree with your observation, and we'll probably never know, but in a crowded carry trade with stops placed in clusters, the ADP figures may have provided enough worry for the weaker hands to bolt and create an avalanche, rather than an e-mail from the Labor Dept. Obviously, a 250k payroll figure would disprove any leak. Tommorrow should be interesting . . .
market is now a complete joke. It no longer discounts/prices anything other than HFT driven pump and dump.
this market was and has been a joke for at least four years now.
I can't actually make any sensible comments on what happened today and the "market" reactions...oh that's right, it's only a propaganda tool nowadays...the real "market" decisions are made long before in the CB meeting halls.
No doubt we have a massive ramp tomorrow in stawks and gold and silver get bludgeoned again.
Ice Cream Friday after all.
Pay no attention to the strange, loud noises coming from the kitchen -- your dinner will be served as you've come to expect, and should be eaten immediately before it gets cold.
My rules for June:
1) always buy the dip at the 50 DMA
2) Thursday is the new Tuesday.
3.) Fundamentals, FX, bond indices/yields no longer matter
4.) If you are waiting for a compression trade to force ES lower, you are probably going to wait a long time and lose a lot of money in the process.
5.) Whenever Tyler publishes a bearish article, the ES will pop 5 points a few seconds afterwards. (E.g. today open and the Draghi article).
6.) Media spin will always try to save the DOW no matter how dismal the fundamentals.
7.) There is no fixed relation between good/bad news and good/bad market movement
8.) Treat gold and silver as trading objects, and do not get attached to them as the ultimate safe haven or Keynsian experiment end protection.
9.) Ignore anyone whose nickname is "Dr. Doom."
10.) If you get a lot of up arrows on ZH for some bearish, pessimistic post, always go long.
Way too much work for me, I just go to Vegas when I want to gamble. Keep it simple slaughterer.
Discard 10 because ZH readers are a minority of similar bias.
Mommy, why are all these computers wearing coveralls and goalie masks?
Fundamental Analysis: Broken
Technical Analysis: Broken
Risk Trend Analysis: Broken
Without the benefit of gambling addiction, I'm finding it really really hard to want to go anywhere near this shitstorm anymore.
I suppose that's rather the point.
I can almost hear the USA chants from my living room!
Like when Team America is beating the shit out of Monaco in basketball.
I think I'm going to short it, obviously the market ramp is occuring now a day before the news, and promptly falling when it's released... Hudathunk..
Careful in that pond, the piranha's are hungry.
Sometimes they go for your nose and ears, and sometimes it's your toes.
and gold will trend lower until the pricing mechanism fails...then...look out...
You know the Fix is in when CNN publishes a BREAKING NEWS! story about the Dow. Looks like someone at the PPT finally got the button working again.
"The 'Taper' talk is the fed jawboning us off the exuberance band-wagon"
The market moves up on liquidity, not hot air. If the FED wants people off the band-wagon, they have to remove the punchbowl.
WOW!!!! somebody got there face ripped off.
I’m sure it was an oversold market due to sound economic fundamental principles.
You can’t make this shit up or say it with a straight face.
So you can’t get PHYZ in the fail in France and the Apu and co are not selling Real Gold in India.
And where the fuck was the rally monkey
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EmfE4KAZicY&feature=player_detailpage
Quotestuffing is bid retract order right? So, banks can ramp this for low cost
SAT 800 is a sock puppet bot posting diarrhea.
Check out it's posting frequency on 06/06/2013
http://www.zerohedge.com/search/user_comments?name=sat+800
SAT 800 has been added to the extensive ZH sockpuppet list.
...................................................
This is an earlier post SAT 800 tried to bury by posting garbage:
HEART, your posting frequency has dropped substantially since being asked to explain your egregious Boston Marathon disinfo posts. Is this a coincidence ?
We are still waiting for an explanation but you refuse to respond. Why ?
ZH readers are curious as to why HEART intentionally posts disinfo such as Boston bombing fake injuries / fake blood / crisis actors garbage which is 100% DISINFORMATION.
http://www.zerohedge.com/search/user_comments?name=the+heart
Boston bomb disinfo reposted again by heart #3616167
I have screen caps of your Boston bombing fake injuries / fake blood / crisis actors disinfo posts.
...................................................
ZH is being targeted by FedGov spambots & human operatives saturating the comment sections with garbage and disinformation in addition to down voting certain posters.
They are not harmless trolls, they are professional operatives attempting to undermine and discredit ZH via multi nic sock puppets.
Attacking this post by constant down voting speaks for itself: the shills have exposed themselves.
Case closed.