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Previewing Tomorrow's Non-farm Payroll Number
America may be a service economy but for the sake of tomorrow's NFP let's pretend it isn't. Because if the employment component of the Non-manufacturing (i.e., Services) ISM, which at least in the pre-centrally planned times correlated with the NFP number with an R2 of about 0.9, is indicative of what to expect, one can kiss any hopes of a recovery goodbye. Which, of course, is great news! It means the Fed will never pull out and never realize that it is the Fed's central planning and market manipulation that is responsible for the every deeper global economic depression which benefits only stock holders (and traders).
h/t @Not_Jim_Cramer
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"Beating expectations" - all the way down...
beating dead horsepectations
You can't fail if you never give up
and
You can't get pregnant if you never pull out.
obviously a disconnect in mid/late 2011 as well as what will be printed in coming months. wait....what happened to stocks in mid/late 2011......
enjoy a 20+% correction.
What were bond yields in 2011?
Add in government layoffs and manufacturing losses, we are probably looking at a sub 100k print.
NFP tomorrow will have the same impact like the NFPs of the past two years.
Sweet fuck all.
Now that being said, there is no MO POMO on Friday (tomorrow) so the shit should hit the fan quite nicely.
Get those index puts bought up soon.
Could be the first time in the history of a'Murica's NFP # that "Exactly as Expected" provides more confusion than clarity.
Unpossible. The variance must be a non-zero integer for the algos to work properly.
I'm sure it will be released 15 nano seconds prior to everybody else to the appropriate robots.
It will be released minutes early as there are many in Congress that aren't hooked into HFT. Their interns will be as busy as the eTrade baby tomorrow morning.
oh....i'm sure members of congress already got the numbers from GS. the trades have already been entered.
Their interns will be as busy as the eTrade baby tomorrow morning.
The image of busy D.C. interns is still pretty 'stained'...
The Bernank's last bluff is being revealed trying to fool everyone into thinking he can "taper". I expect near terms bullish moves in silver as the market figures out there will be no tapering. The thing to watch is Treasury yields. Yields necked up to dangerous territory so the "bad economic data" came out to suck yields back in due to low expectations of tapering. Since yields have backed off dangerous levels, tomorrows NFP number will likely come in just a bit below consensus allowing this game to be dragged out to the next round. And when yields start up again the bad data will resume sucking yields back in as the market is led to believe that the Fed won't exit bond buying. Gotta love that central planning / central manipulation of data to controls the markets...
you seem to be arguing "there is Central Planning" and "you love it because it's good for you." explain.
The "gotta love central planning" was sarcasm.
I detest central planning and it's only good for the central planners and those the central planners support.
Having said that, you have to play the hand you're dealt. With central planning comes massive distortions in the markets and therefore tremendous imbalances, which also brings tremendous opportunity for when those balaances are corrected. Silver is one of these tremendous opportunities.
Someone made a post a couple days back stating there were 12 states that have more people on walfare/unemployed then employed and named the states.
Has anyone seen that or have a source? I think it would be fitting for tomorrows NFP.
The report actually counted government workers and welfare/unemployed/disabled to get the total. It is a fair to include govmint workers because if they make $60k salary and pay $Xk in taxes, the $(60-X)k in salary needs to come from actual taxes.
So, tell me, do you count a the employees of a "private" company that is making all it's money from a government "no-bid" contract? Since all that money is coming from taxes, should all those chumps also be counted as "government workers". Many will be gettying paid much much more than 60k.
or those that get special tax breaks or "refunds" as well. how about those that pay no taxes at all "because they aren't part of the United States" or "aren't US citizens." the list goes on and on and on does it not.
Does anyone have a link?
this link gets you close, I think it was orignally a Forbes article that spawned the "Death Spiral" states...
http://www.factcheck.org/2013/01/death-spiral-states/
I would count them. The government doesn't produce anything.
It also counted anyone retired receiving a government pension. Now I believe we have way too many government workers but if you worked 30 years for a government agency and you are now getting your pension.........That is not welfare
Just bet the opposite of LaVorgna on NFP and everything will be fine.
Damn, and I was planning to take a dump at some point.
What we are going to see the FED do is to "tread water" at this level of the stock market. They will let the market slip a few percent and then juice it up a few percent. It was starting to get retarded when it just went up every day. No one was ever going to believe in DOW 50,000 in this economy. I think we are here until at least 2014 and maybe even 2016.
Think of it as extend and pretend without extending too far but pretending all the same.
It's all enough for me to skip meeting @ Jackson Hole.
Why bother with Jackson Hole when the Fed, Treas and HFT are all on autopilot.............
Everything so twisted, whatever NFP we get, the market will rally. They will find a way to spin it as a stick save moment. I want to be a bear, but I am too cynical.
every rally will end with a bond selloff taking out anything with yield.
You're right to be cynical. The Fed and its rally men are not done yet. They have a lot of meddling, I mean tools, left in their arsenal.
lol I wrote a whole long reply just to realize you were not talking to me.
Ha.
Heya Fonz!
SPX now +1.00 to 1610. It kept a nice tight girdle around that 1604 floor. The guys at Daneric's are attacking each other with spoons. Its been an interesting day to say the least.
HFT is 80% of volume.
There are no guys. There is no floor. There is no market.
You know this. Why do people pretend anything other than algorithms fighting against algorithms is involved?
Okay have it your way. Someone on Daneric's wrote an algo to respond to random discussions that reads "fuck you sideways my little shorty" and then follows it with a chart. Then someone else wrote an algo that reads "You're full of shit and I'm not reading anymore of your crap" followed by a .gif in response. My bad
What's up RSloane?
Yeah I think, barring some big thing, we stay choppy to the downside for a while. We just found out that rising yeilds will immediately put any fire out. Everyone is tired of QE4eva. I just see us staying stuck until we break.
I think that's a good way to look at it. Remember a 1,000 paper cuts. The bleed out is going to be very slow while the propaganda machines set up their finger pointing and false paradigms. Anything can happen between now and when the bleeding stops. True price discovery will be the final paper cut. Then we all retire to our farms and sing to our chickens.
it looks like we have switched from taking credit to finger pointing. Good call.
Absolutely. In the US, its very typical for a government person/agency A to want deep thanks and worship while things in their control look superficially good. Then when they fail miserably they change their tune and either blame government person/agency B and swear to God things could have been great if it weren't for that other interfering thing or person. Before this is over Bernanke and the Fed are going to blame the markets for this mess. Now Im going to go read what Fisher said about the markets.
[smiley_face]
The markets were dead set on giving away the gains and they did it today!!! 70% of the gain this year is gone already and over nothing but i think this might happen!!I Idiots as financial people!!
Tomorrow shaping up to be pivital day for the Gold market (paper market that is).
Whew! That was close. You'd never know we almost had a complete meltdown in global markets today. Thank God the Zimmerman trial started today - the MSM will have something else to talk about tonight.
Self Edit - I apologize for calling this casino a "market".
OT. why is the FED doing this? Expanding QE? http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2013/06/06/ny-fed-announces-4-firms-for-t...
would be interesting to see tylers' take on this.
Who are those four firms?
All of a sudden, it's important to run a test case that is "quick and inexpensive". bernanke please...
maybe clandestine moves i.e. a way to move money around, some might describe it as "launderin'". not me. I have verizon. perhaps = adhering to fomc policy so that the masses don't know what's happeing as much as they would through primary dealers.
All these years, primary dealers, and now a test case...
Or nothing but noise.
It's just cool to be able to speculate about a secret shrouded Private Bank that controls the planet, while on the inside, 100 steps ahead. It's alll goooooood.
Green Bitchezz.................................
Au cuts through $1420 and dips back (presently $1410). the word is out. NFP fail?
Headfake. Horrible number tomorrow. Smash the metals.
Have the last 7 or 8 UE reports meant anything? The market has steadily moved up no matter what the numbers; which of course are always revised several times and are really meaningless. The down and dirty results, no matter what the print, will be that Benny isn't going to change anything this year or next. With taxes rising, Obummercare on the horizon, consumer debt still very high, savings very low, and the welfare state overtaking the productive state, where will the boost come from for a sustained recovery that gives us 3-5% GDP for more than a quarter or two? The FED has thus far failed and as Tyler has stated, made matters worse. The pudding of QE is providing the proof.
u know the numbers are going to be beyond rigged tomm.
i dont even think a horrible number is good for the markets anymore, because as seen with japan, u can print to infinity, but it only does so much.
i believe obama needs a good number printed tomm, and u can bet ur ass they are working right now to manipulate the shit out of the numbers.
the market is already beginning to come to terms with tapering coming soon, so a bad jobs report would be very bad for the market imo, because as shown with japan, printing can only go so far ( and its gone as far as it could) and also that would singal that depsite qe infinity, jobs still suck,
so bottom line, expect the unemployment rate to drop to like 7.3 and jobs added to be like 220,000, when in reality the unemployment rate is prob around 25 percent with jobs added being like 30,000 maybe.
p.s, as i typed this, the market turned green. cant make this shit up.
Good number = Belief that QE is working so why stop now?
Not-so-good number = Belief that QE isn't working quickly enough because it's not big enough.
Either way = MOAR.
They can't stop....ever. It'll be something else that brings it all down.
cough...cough...WAR...cough
is this just my thinking, or is the vix maybe one of the dumbest options in this entire market?
its supposed to be a fear indicator, yet its so fucking manipulated. today it was up like 5 plus percent at a point, and now its negative. are you telling me that people were really fearful before now they have no fear whatsoever?
so stupid the vix.
No. it's not just your thinking. The VIX is a money sucking stinker.
Which part of B. T. F. D. did we not understand? Now S.T.F.R. Bitchez!
Link to the "death Spiral" states.
http://www.factcheck.org/2013/01/death-spiral-states/
Note: not completely true or false...
This may be the most fvcked up headline I have seen yet re. this FARCE of a market in years:
U.S. Stocks Advance on Stimulus Bets Before Jobs Report
By Nikolaj Gammeltoft & Jonathan Morgan on Jun 6, 2013
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-06-06/u-s-stock-futures-advance-befor...
Holy FUBAR.
.
Whatever the number, the fuckstick banksters will find a way to crush gold and silver. That's a given.
The dollar crashed today and gold and silver didn't even go up 1%. Anyone out there still think they aren't the most manipulated markets in the world? Oh, that's right, Doug Casey, Rick Rule, and all the lemmings on CNBS.
"one can kiss any hopes of a recovery goodbye."
Considering that this government has done NOTHING in five years to generate an economic recovery, there is surprise here?
Why waste a perfectly good POMO day on one guaranteed (NFP) to please the market and send it up 28 points to 1650. Get ready to cover shorts and GO LONG!!! The next leg up starts in 11.5 hours!
"the NFP number with an R2 of about 0.9, is indicative of what to expect, one can kiss any hopes of a recovery goodbye."
Well today, the NFP did in fact print near concenus. The above supposition was a FAIL. It was a non-event. Sorry.