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S&P Breaks 1,600 (The Wrong Way)
Just a month ago we broke above the magical 1,600 level on the S&P 500... today we broke back below, with the index now down over 5% from its 5/22 highs. From a technical perspective, the Nikkei 225 is below its 100DMA, and the Dow and S&P 500 just broke below the 50DMA. VIX has risen, now back above 18% (highest in over 3 months). No Hindenburg Omen signal (yet). What we worry about is that everyone is focused on tomorrow's NFP print as some panacea for "Taper." This is incorrect. The "Taper" jawboning from the Fed is because they are increasingly fearful of the bubbles they have created (just look at the sudden influx of frothiness discussions) and need to 'try' and talk us off the exuberant ledge. Whether the NFP is strong or weak is irrelevant - we all know the 'real' economy is weak - it doesn't matter to the Fed who can't support such disconnected markets any longer since they know that the higher it goes the worse it will end.
Fundamentally analyze this!!
Whocouldanode?
Wanna play a bounce tomorrow? Then it has to be HYG - which is now 9 sigma cheap to stocks and is down for the year... or just buy 3xHYG and sell 1xSPY for any reversion...
Charts: Bloomberg
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So, Thursday is not the new Tuesday? I'm confused.
RECORD MARGIN, FLASH CRASH TIME BABY!
What (artificially) goes up, must........
U$D index future down 1.31 looks like the camel's nose poking into the fiat tent; click 'majors' and watch it here:
http://www.investing.com/commodities/gold-advanced-chart
Tyler quantifies this massive Fed train wreck for ALL to understand:
"The higher it goes the worse it will be"
In the last five years, there was never a day that the stock market climbed higher WITHOUT Fed intervention. Its now time for actual fundamentals to matter - With a vengeance!
CRASH AND BURN YOU BLOWN OUT OF PROPORTION POS !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
VIX broke the 20 month. DBTFD.
broke back market ...
Get the President to do something.
The sanctimonious stuffed shirt knuckle dragger who puts his faith in profit-to-earnings ratios (apparently at the expense of stock price)?
As I said over and over and over but nobody believes me.
Tapering started few ago. Full halt coming soon.
Unwinding, unlikely, but hey one never knows.
Riiiiigggghhhht. Without direct monetization, who will buy those bonds and fund the sovereign debt? Please, do tell.
Nobody and that's the intent IMO.
I think they either have voted one or two primary dealers out or have found few pension/insurance funds as suckers with the cooperation of CEOs, MF Global style.
Stop contradicting yourself, is "nobody" buying or have new "suckers" been found? Make up your mind. I am leaning towards nobody as you originally stated. people have wised up and are simply taking whatever monies they can and running.
Nobody means nobody.
Same as for Lehman or MFG, all shit was unloaded to them and then margin was called.
So...it's a game of hot potato? (Need to be able to explain this stuff to my future grandchildren).
So the plan is the same as last time, stuff a former PD with all kinds of crap and then kill them. That still does not solve the issue of funding the government's obligations unless a hard default, captial controls, and marshal law is coming. Don't know about that.
The gov will default on americans, this is currently happening since early 90s, nothing new.
When the EBT cards stop working along with medicare and disability. It sure as hell would be "something new".
I remain long black markets and sharecropping...
Agree.
Expanded EBT use means that the gov is continuosly defaulting on americans. It's the gov pushing EBT use.
gas up the truck honey ! we'll be leaving soon
In the Q&A of BB testimony a few weeks back he answered a questions about where rates would be without QE. I am paraphrasing this but in his answer he essentially said "ironically if QE ended right now rates would come down as the markets would take it as a deflationary event" That to me was the tell BB knew his only way to try and contain rates and not risk losing control was to slow down and then end purchases of MBS and UST.
My $0.02
"That to me was the tell BB knew his only way to try and contain rates and not risk losing control was to slow down and then end purchases of MBS and UST. " - so the plan is to allow the U.S. to hard default then...
I think BB is long gone before that is put on table....but we have the potential to debt spiral right now just as much as Japan IMO and the thought of facing that now scares the daylights out of TPTB. Kick the can...kick the can....
They would rather crash, regroup and get another swat at the pinata before the end game arrives.
"so the plan is to allow the U.S. to hard default then..."
Not likely. The time for that was before "TARP." The trajectory now is "the destruction of the currency involved," to quote Ludwig v M.
What I figure we have here is a tactical change from now Politically Incorrect "QE" to some switch in verbiage to "Main Street Enrichment" Operations, yada. Ctrl P will remain.
QE was a process to make whole "certain" entities, and folks are getting wise to that. Time to bury it before Main Street gets out the matches.
Great point about the Fed. I don't think they stop QE any time soon and I believe, by the looks of things the last few weeks, they have completely lost control. Get ready...
The Fed (and the ECB) are about to go full-tilt Japanese and throw so much money at this it will make your head spin.
$1T (with a T bitchez) or GTFO.
As has been said elsewhere, there are a lot of new players who have never seen a 5% correction; still less a 10-15% selloff. This has the makings of a little 'Spring of 2000'. And good Lord, could you ever imagine a market so suckled on government largesse? An education is coming and right soon.
Not to worry, Bernanke will ramp up printing to $135 billion a month. The Ponzi markets cannot be allowed to fail. It is a matter of national security.
"the puppet governments cannot be allowed to fail."- fixed. I thought this was clear to everyone now. In a "debt is money" system, the the debt (issued by governments as proxie for the banksters, who contribute nothing of real value) must increase, period.
This is backwards... B9K9 was the only champion that I recall of the real order of things... My favorite post of his (or hers?) was when he "paraphrased" voltaire, "if bankers did not exist, then it would be necessary for the government to create them." I concur with him...
Angels and pinheads.
What's you vector, Victor?
But my realtor just told me last week the price of stocks never go down....what the heck?!
Edward Nichols or Reece Jones?
"...it doesn't matter to the Fed who can't support such disconnected markets any longer since they know that the higher it goes the worse it will end."
Oh, they'll support it all right...just 150 S&P points lower than here.
Bernanke's last ditch effort: mirror desks for everyone. In which a crashing market looks like it is soaring.
Oi Slaughterer, think the S&P is going to bounce off the spongy floor of 1604?
LOL, I pulled up the FBN ticker read and it said n.a. for the S&P. While I'm sure they will fix that, I'm thinking a bounce as historically predicted is in order. I could be wrong though.
Here's what the bond markets have been saying..
http://blog.quantsig.net/2013/06/06/bond-markets/
My God....it's full of stars...
What the hell is going with the USD?
this is awesome, but i want a hard crash so all these thieves cant get out on time.
i want -600 plus losses on dow, 150 is nice, but i want the real blood.
also, its hilarious how these fools are talking as this is good for the market. lol, this is just the beginning. the depression is soon coming to a world near you
It's not the fall that hurts, it's the sudden stop at the bottom.
Tepper........you da maan!
Pull up a chart of /DX. I think anyone leveraged long to the dollar is getting massacred right now.
The 50 DMA has been breached, but the USD/JPY breakdown is too extreme: too many players just got owned on USD/JPY longs, a bounce is no longer certain at this point.
don't you worry bernank will save the day *cough cough*
Time to open that bottle of Cooks Champagne and get a headache.
Go Leafs!!!
Wait..
EU 50 Stoxx future down 2.19% is the worst decline of its 7 day drop. Click 'majors' and watch the starting collapse here:
http://www.investing.com/commodities/gold-advanced-chart
Slaughterer; yes and the same could be said of equity longs new to the party; owned and scared straight ...
The secondary trend turned bearish yesterday for the reasons explained here:
http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2013/06/dow-theory-update-for-june-5-...
The odds favor lower prices ahead. However, for the time being, the primary trend remains bullish.
There is a concerted effort to keep the US markets up - one key way is to drive the US Dollar down.
USD daily
http://bullandbearmash.com/chart/spot-dollar-daily-continues-fall-sharpl...
The Euro, Yen, Pound and CDN are through the roof today.
Inspite of this move, the S&P500 is down 0.07%. : )
Follow the USD - it tells all.
just in time for the MONEY MARKET SQUEEZE !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! what timing....................
Jim Marshall is running the wrong way....