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Spot The Odd One Out
Presented with no comment...
So summing it all up - 10Y is almost unchanged on the year; credit is now worse on the year; VIX is dramatically worse; Lumber has plunged; and the Nikkei 225 is down 24% from its highs...
but the S&P 500...
Charts: Bloomberg
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Meanwhile, Gold and Silver..
http://blog.quantsig.net/2013/06/06/gold-and-silver/
Gold live: https://www.quantsig.net/live.html
S&P500 will go below 1000 by June 20th
will stay above 1660
June 20th, 2014
took profit this morning @1595, basis Sept. S&P500, contract ES; +6500$. Went short the GBP@1.5595X2 basis Sept. I would encourage anyone to short CABLE right now where it sits. There's no way it's going any higher. As for the S&P500; their function is to give me money; they did that; I'll wait for another burst of mindless enthusiasm and short it again.
Fed owns the market now - if it breaks down, it's on the Fed. Thus, a break down of the market is unlikely.
I can't read the charts. Been doing this for thirty-five years; but I've got no idea. The spike today at the Crimex, (NYMEX), after London closed, is sometimes interpreted as meaning the floor traders and their friends are selling the top of the spike they created because they "know" prices will be lower next week; but it wasn't a very impressive spike; and my reaction is MEH. Don't know.
Welcome to the New World Disorder, where metrics lose all meaning as irrationality reigns.
Good luck picking up all of those pennies. Oh, and never mind the approaching bulldozer. It'll never catch up to you (assuming you can stay a millisecond ahead of it).
Malikai,
Excellent chart site. Thanks for posting the Quantsig links.
Another thing I'm keeping an eye on is July 1st, when something either does or doesn't get decided regarding the student loan bubble. Any move away from the 3.4%, and some TBTF banks are going to start failing.
I changed my mind: I just bought the dip at ES 1601. Too many up arrows on previous bearish post here. Now to go shop for some adult diapers.
You are psychologjcally anchored to the new artificial inflated levels of the S&P500... sad but real
I like it Slaughterer.
If yeilds go back down everyone will go rushing right back into the dividend stock bosom,
2.04 on the ten year. Have you tossed in the towel yet?
lol. Doc I sold a lot of people out (stocks) last Friday before we dumped. I thought I could take a victory lap but I am starting to get this dirty, disgusting feeling that yes, in the short term, we are heading back to 1.7ish and I should be buying back some of that stuff I sold at a slight discount before it gets out of reach.
If we get a number above 165kish tomorrow that 10yr yield is moving back up.
The only thing holding me back is what you said on another thread, This volatility should result in someone ending up face down in a river.
I am liking the idea of putting some money to work here. I'm thinking that a bunch of shorts jumped on this move and are about to get squeezed. I am concerned about the currency swings right now, so I will keep some dry powder. I would keep tight stops but the robots will just grab them.
I saw the stupid 10yr at 2.03 before and now it's back at 2.06%. I just think any market rally gets met by selling in treasuries, throw in a good jobs number and yields pop again and continue to take the legs out.
In my view the top is in. All gains in stocks from here on out come at the expense of bonds.
It's probably a technical traders dream but I am more of a pull it out of my ass type of investor. This is not a pull it out of your ass type of market. So I am hangin out.
Well; your "feeling" is why I took profit on my short at 1595, today; the mob doesn't learn that easily; I'd rather have the money and watch from the sidelines; it's quite possible they'll get enthusiastic again. But, I wouldn't go long; the odds aren't that good.
TA is showing one more rally into the end of June before massive summer selloff.
+1 for Slaughterer and adult diapers.
I still almost expect whenever (if) this correction finds some sort of bottoming, the underperforming portfolio mgrs. will jump in and there might just be the final euphoric run at DJIA 16k and ES around 1700. That would complete the blowoff top, although definitely wouldn't be shocked if the highs are in for the year, though.
Bernanke should buy large quantities of lumber, thereby supporting the housing recovery!
I ordered two new windows for our house...doing an attic renovation. When I placed my order, the person told me it would be two weeks for them to come in. After two and a half weeks I called to check on them and he said it was going to be another 4 week wait. He said that the manufacturer had gotten absolutely slammed with new orders. I asked if it was due a surge in new construction and he replied "I don't know. He just said some guy named Big Ben ordered 5,000 windows"
Does he live in Moore, Ok?
The only dips I buy are salsa and sour cream/onion.
Very wise; IMHO.
ben will resign soon. its why he wont be at the cb'er circle jerk in august.
Seems a disastrous confession of fallibility by the Fed--I doubt it.
Ummm... no.
His term ends in January.
Rollout Jabba the Hutt! (Larry Summers)
Volatility on the rise. We've been witnessing it in the Japanese markets, now it's spreading abroad. Central banks under pressure.
The gold takedown supports this as well, it's almost like a replay of what happened in August-November '08. This would imply the next couple months get progressively more hellish.
no where to invest but stawks.
id rather get my money back plus 1% then lose 5% in a few weeks.
Wire tapping is up too...
Hm. Good thing the only one's who saw this coming said "do the opposite and short the yen, short treasuries, short the Fed." mow how low does that dollar have to go before there is inflation again?
Time to buy some moar beans and rice.
Borrowing a saying from Europe is equally true for TPTB's maintenance of the rising trend in equities:
There is no plan B.
See, the market is already well off the lows and kickin some deflation monster ass.
Is everything going faster, or am i slowing down ?
Both.
;-) Panic is speeding up. Guess i'm not panicking.
what's the catalyst for a significanlty lower S&P? i see very little. If the S&P were gold you'd see all the gold fanboys screaming about a natural & expected short term correction en route to a continuation of the current bull market. If it's the S&P though, well shit is just on the cusp of hitting the fan and the "end game" is near. sure.
There's never any catalyst. There's never anything to see until afterwards. That's why you sell tops on the charts and use stop losses. All market prices are unstable; falling prices generate sales orders; rising prices generate buying orders. The stock market is nervous and jumpy; the catalyst would be the falling price itself; but you have to sell the tops first so you have a safe position..
USDJPY crashing (weakening dollar) = market translates that to mean Ben will stop printing faster, moarer fiat = no liquidity spigot to feed the (S&)Pig. Currency is the lever being pulled on everything. BUT...these little flash crashes are smoking out the truth that we all know:
HOLDING DOWN TREASURY YIELDS IS THE MOST IMPORTANT OBJECTIVE, THUS QE CAN NEVER STOP BECAUSE THERE ISN'T ENUFF DEMAND FOR TREASURYS AT .0000001% YIELD
...because if that falters, the rest won't matter.
The only thing that is bull about this market is the bullcrap that created it.
"what's the catalyst for a significanlty lower S&P?"
What was the catalyst for the S&P going from 666 to 1650 in 4 years?
All the other asset price manipulators should re-take Bubbling101 or ask their co-worker that runs the S&P500 department for advice. YTD that dude has been on fire!
stawks to hold the 50 day and the rally of a lifetime to continue, saving every man woman and child with higher stawks and higher home$, as everything disintegrates around them.
Obama=Everyone's BFF!=
Bullish Forward Forever!
Ben Forward! Forever!
And the greatest substantive slogan of propaganda in history: "Change!" to be replaced with
"Change?" as in, brother can you spare some? Coming to a country near you-2014.
While lumber has gone in the tank, there are all of 6750 open contracts out there for all dates. Today's volume: 0.
While admittedly illiquid, I see 1,523 contracts traded today - considerably above year's average
Lumber prices have been running up for a long time. Way overdue for a correction.
Never gets old.
Be careful what you see in charts. There are so many you are bound to see even this formation: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/printthread.php?threadid=128320
Lumber showcasing its source: TIMBER.
is it me or is the S&P500 going up again? Maybe with the FED in there it is up up up up up and away??? Question is, how far can they go? Can anyone answer this one please?
Long camel back doctors.
My take away from the Nikkei Chart: Fear is a greater motivator than greed.
My take away from the lumber chart: JPM has a massive short position and is protecting it.
..ie, they are selling paper wood.....
Perhaps a synthetic CDO with different lumber companies is needed?
I believe S&P and Goldman craps have teh skills to do gods work