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USDJPWHY????!!!!!
It's USDJPY waterfall time and Mrs Watanabe has just left the building. She is now getting familiar with the far less known cousin of the "wealth effect" - the "poverty effect."
Meanwhile, someone big just got the proverbial tap on the shoulder. That, or is already getting carted out feet first.
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Pretty graph. Coming soon to a currency near you!
Coming to a 401k near you?
Another in a long series of Japanese meltdowns to come.
But they are all harmless meltdowns so that's good.
Well I hope Nanex does forex because I'd just love to see that 100pip drop we just had inside of a minute!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FONN-0uoTHI
......I guess the yen is worth more now. LOL, back the truck up.
Gives new meaning to the term MILF.
I had 6 major support lines on my chart this morning, the last four forming a defence-in-depth from 97.4 to 96.9. Pffft, they're all gone. This is sad and serious. Not that the central banksters don't deserve everything they get but they aren't the ones who will suffer the most.
Please do not worry.
What, me worry?
At least he used the magic word.
Tough audience. I've told so many cunts to go fuck him or her self that I can't keep track anymore.
May be I am not reading the chart right but it seems that it is not pretty soon coming to a currenvy near me but that it already came, since this means that the usd dollar is going down in value like a rock when compared with the Yen, despite the huge mess and debt to GDP of more than 200%.
It looks like Mrs Watanabe just gained 2% in purchasing power, if she wants to import stuff. If she was long JPY Short USD at 50:1, she just doubled her money. Unless I'm misreading this?
3%
Round and round and round she goes, where she stops, nobody know. Well, except for the gold bugs that is.
Japan wants to export stuff.
This weeks offer I hear is the highest quality of radioactive salt water fish.
Must be everyone dumping their smartphones to avoid Uncle Scam.
the gold chart is inverse right now
Question is whether it will be allowed to settle above the 1414 resistance point or if it will be summarily slaughtered back down by 3pm EDT. Inquiring minds want to know...
Edit: and don't forget about our friend Mr. Brent. Nothing zaps the fallacious Dow confidence faster than a nice chubby ramp at the pump.
Maybe the BoJ should start moetizing US auto loan ABS. That would help Toyota sell more cars, right?
Bought a Honda this weekend. $2000 dealer incentives plus 0.9% Honda financing. BoJ is making me a winner!
Financing on new Japanese motorcycles is TITS right now.
Maybe they need to triple the monetary base.
They were told to get a bigger boat, but oh no, they just could not follow one simple fucking instruction. Serves them right.
that escalated quickly..
That's what she said.
Looks like ES 50 DMA cross coming up soon.
I am watching this movement in the Yen. This movement is amazing. Will the Yen spend the rest of the day retracing this massive fall? There must be positions blowing up throughout the world with a movement this dramatic.
Can anyone relate this all back to the famous Yen Carry Trade? I understand what was going on in that trade, it was well known. But what has happened to that trade now? Note: I am not well versed in these types of currency matters.
My apologies, but just to make sure that everybody understands this correctly, the Yen is not falling, the US dollar is the one falling. Before you'd get more than 100 Yen for 1 dollar, now less than 98... Normally In 2011 when the dollar fell you'd see the S&P500 go up in fiat dollar terms and stay nearly constant in USDI (us dollar index) terms. Why is the correlation inverted scapes me. This is bad for Japan, but worse for the USA... meaning our exports became cheaper but our imports more expensive...
Probably carry trade unwinds - as JackB refers to above.
Borrow Yen for almost zero cost - expect yen to carry on getting cheaper, sell yen - buy assets in non yen denominations (s&p - whatever) make money on rising asset price - take profit - buy back yen / pay down yen loan with now cheaper yen - win on both legs of the trade.
I think what we are seeing IS some carry trade unwind. Losing on both legs is bad - he who panics first...etc
Right...considering each contract long the USDJPY has lost around $2,000 this morning, it's likely a principle preservation issue.
To say this is solely the USD weakening is a bit misleading...it's both the USD weakening and the JPY strengthening. The JPY is being bought while simultaneously the USD is being sold...double whammy so to speak...
No whammy, no whammy, no whammy.
Whammy.
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0353238/
On May 19, 1984, an out of work ice cream truck driver from Southwestern Ohio broke the bank on CBS' hit game show "Press Your Luck"
Everybody and their mother started doing short JJB's/long Nikkei back in late Nov., the people still in that trade are the dumb money.
you said it friend! little by little the margin calls throughout the world will blow up. a little here, a little there, pretty soon we will see the snowball effect.
is the snowball effect just like the wealth effect?
Possible, but unlikely. There should be a powerful overnight retracement. If it doesn't come, look out below, big time.
http://blog.quantsig.net/2013/06/06/yen-update/
lol
Anybody taking bets on what the Nikkei does tonight?
Something tells me that anybody short JGBs will get crushed tonight.
The whole of the bond markets in europe, us, and japan have been screaming the entire month.
Right. JGB'S. That's what really matters right. Pardon me, I don't have a fancy Community Collage degree or anything, so bear with me. Isn't the 10y JGB yield going up to 1.5% or (gasp!) 2% what could cause the fan/shit paradigm to unfold?
Also, where can I see real time JGB yields?
Thanx.
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates-bonds/government-bonds/japan/
The most crowded trade in the world....the unwind should be something to behold
Does this mean Japan will not be rearming for war on China as the US has encouraged them recently???
So now the invisible hand of the market is buying a currency which is annually diluted to the equivalent of 15% of Japan's GDP.
Yeah, this will end well.
Escape, are you writing about the dollar, the Euro or the Yen? I need some clarification on this one. Thanks.
The Yen.
The USD prints (creates money, to be more exact) $85bn x 12 = $1,02tn, which is 1.02/15.5 = 6.6%.
Not sure how much the ECB prints, though I'm sure there are a lot of overt "operations" going on behind the scenes, which most likely make these percentages incorrect. Oh, not forgetting about all the hedonics "adjustments" to GDP.
yes, well, what treasuries are available, must also recieve a strong bid;
http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/10_year
This hand doesn't seem so invisible right now huh.
one thing I've noticed time and again is ... when some one BIG gets notice to liquidate, the market gets jacked up. It's like as if market goes up when people are selling, ... I guess it's another weird effect of HFT.
not a chance, IMO
he who panics first panics best
and "he's not alone." hahahaha. "targeting the blow up of Japan itself." really? good luck with that!
I wouldn't bet on anything going down faster than the USD. Bernanke's last bluff is being revealed. The market is figuring out that he cannot taper. The understanding of the game is growing and once critical mass is reached in the number of people who understand the game, it's game over. The Bernanke can misdirect into getting fools to think he will taper up until the point which QE is instead upped. Just wait to see what the reaction is like when more QE is piled on instead of QE being tapered...
Gold catching a nice bid
In real terms gold is actually down. USD is down over 1% and gold is up less than 1% in USD terms, meaning, all in all, gold is down in real purchasing power.
Heehee...! LOVE IT!!!!
Fed.Debt and cheap money is the only thing keeping this economy alive at least on Wall Street. What the banks pay to savings accounts makes americans have little reason to save but that is the reason behind the shop till you drop propaganda used in all the money spent on getting you into the stores open the window to world has a real strange reality look to it all the people hit buy some sort of disaster and they have no savings to fall back on except the taxpayer its just a fact of the times we live in
Manhattan real estate is skyrocketing. If you have any other problems, fuck off. Mayor Bloomberg wanted me to pass that message along to you.
Please tell the mayor to visit the east village and fall on an aids infected dick.
I watch Max Keiser on RT, and he has been calling this situtation for some time now. He may be laughed at by many. But way back in 2006 he was dead right about Iceland's coming implosion, and many more that followed. He has been calling this Japan disaster for many years, but like me, he underestimated the ability of the money printers to keep the wheel turning. Time is runing out, Max may be brash and unconventional be he calls some shit right! Much of his take on modern fiscal policy and markets is ahead of it's time. No man can predict the future, he can only make educated guesses. I think Max has some good calls under his belt already, with more to come. He is London based now, as he says that Britain is going to implode at some point and he wants to be at ground zero when it does. We shall see, but I point to Britian as a disaster in the making!
I have lost huge sums underestimating the evil of the money changers.
WestVillage, You and me both man. The money changers have killed me since I bailed out of stocks before the 2008 crash. I lost nothing in the blowout, all my gains held. Since then Bernanke has treated me worse than my drill instructor in Boot Camp. My Ass Has Been Grass, and Bernanke has been the Lawn Mower!!! Ouch!
Ditto...
or dildo....meet ass.
I lost faith in the economic system, pretty much entirely back in June 2007 when a TSP anti-inflation fund managed to lose money when the USD was dropping all over the place. Put my money in bond fund and grew it by borrowing from myself to pay off debt and paying myself interest.
Once we get this next retrace, if there is a monetary system left, I hope to get some into stocks then, but only after it retraces about 40% of that drop.
But what can we do? I dont want to buy a lot of PMs now because I have a sneaky suspicion that the goverments will confiscate them when it gets to the deep shit. Got alot of silver and that is going to stay till the prices come down and I hope to convert it all to rounds.
In the meantime, I am struggling to keep my eyes open without causing myself another heart-attack. This is not a free market, the whole thing is rigged to protect the TBTF bank criminal syndicates, and I am sick to death of these lying theiving bastards. Fucking shoot them all is how I feel right now, but that is not the best answer. Hanging saves bullets.
+1 for the righteous anger.
Sums up my situation quite nicely too, thanks WVI. I don't necessarily want that money back but I do want to see some serious blowback on the perpetrators.
I LOVE IT!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Schadenfreude, bitchez.
Going long again at 90, 85, 80, and 75 if it happens.
I thought I was the only one here with cuts from catching this knife.
It's Golden !
Someone just leaked the unemployment figure for tomorrow?
Stay calm everyone - Don’t panic – I REALLY, REALLY MEAN IT THIS TIME – LISTEN TO ME! – STOP PANICKING RIGHT NOW!!!!
Abe
Cant wait to see what JGB's do tonight!
Goodnight USD
It's not about the Yen it's about the dollar
It's not about the Yen it's about the dollar
which is why I asked if someone already leaked the unemployment no. to be released to the sheeple tomorrow
Simplistic.
Show me the dollar dropping that much against every other currency, if that's the case.
You don't have this kind of movement without somebody getting taken out. Who will be thrown on the alter is the question.
Would love for it to be JPM...wishful thinking?
on JPM :
MSM is giving ZH a clap on the back for some great spook leg work some months back on this JPM/FED gold vault caper.
http://www.businessinsider.com/jp-morgan-fed-gold-vault-theory-2013-6
Tyler will be on it for sure.
Exactly. Which is why most people I know think they can ignore the math and everything will be okay. They fight the very idea that there is a real decline in quality of life, that it is permanent, and that it will continue to deteriorate. As Michele added above: "Apres moi, le deluge." Everyone else will get screwed but not me, I got mine.
It's a tsunami. Previous paradigms no longer apply.
Teevee, junkfood-addled Amerika could not withstand a currency collapse. The Black Plague made human capital valuable again - in modern application we have tens of millions on the gov't teat with no recovery.
http://www.martinarmstrong.org/files/Are-We-Running-Out-of-Other-People-...
All those 99-weekers waiting for jobs. What jobs? Doing what? The service economy is a fiat lie and our infrastructure is based on a constant flow of cheap oil.
Mortgage? WTF for? Prices are artificially high because of 1) shadow inventory 2) who can say they will be employed in their profession to make payments for 30 years anymore - no man is an island.
Stay nimble. Stay quick. This is no time for white picket fences. Going back to the sad, miserable, drugged-up state of our Nation it ain't a stretch to imagine that the Mandarin speakers are planning to make use of their raw (war) materials and spouse-less young men for "real estate acquisition". Hasn't anyone read a history book around here? The Chi-Coms have openly spoken of how they deserve North America. This kind of scenario isn't discussed because it is the worst-case scenario outside of nuc-bio-chem warfare, and then subsequent invasion.
"Oh, but China needs us and we need them." Bullshit. Everyone is buying time. The Chinese aren't stupid and they know they aren't getting their money back. Some finance guy over there said US bonds are not safe medium and long. In other words "We are trying to buy as much time as possible to acquire tangible assets that matter!"
All the survivalists from the 70's were wrong because they didn't understand the "Nixon" trick/effect of taking us off the gold standard and taking paper money to its extreme utility. It would have been better to face this shitstorm back then. Back when Americans were still eating meals that had real nutrition, no obesity epidemic, actual human interaction, strong infrastructure with less bureaucracy. Today it's all bloated beyond recognition.
When the Fed finally makes a move that has a visible and real effect on Amerika even rationing of supplies won't keep the interurban areas content. We are at the brink of a f.u.n.d.a.m.e.n.t.a.l. shift. Be far away from the millions that require a weekly check for their very survival. Do you think the owners of the Fed care if millions starve?
I clicked the green triangle thingy a few times, alas, the number only went up by one........
Sad that I only have but one upvote to give.
That about sums it up. +1
Welp, after reading that looks like I will be making yet another trip to Costco for yet more rice and beans.
Well Abe damned,this reminds me of summer '98 when the yen carry trade unwound...........rather quickly......... and destroyed LTCM.
Yesterday, our first victim was publicly traded hedge fund Man Group whose '87 black box trading algos were responsible for vaporizing first half '2013 trading profits in under a week ......LOL.
It looks more like Mr. Abe gets slayed by deflation monster.
Call me Capt. Schadenfreude if you'd like, but I'm a long suffing gold (and silver) bug. Somebody is getting their ass handed to them and I'm liking it.
So...isn't this really more a story of the USD being dumped? Though most pronounced in USD/JPY, theres some big moves in EUR/USD and GBP/USD too.
You are correct, the big story is being missed. It is the US dollzr being dumped for the Yen despite massive printing by Japan... quite shocking. You also need to factor in that this is happening simultaneously with dumpoingnof US stocks that shouldbbe appreciating in fiat terms when the usd goes down as it is doing. Very bad omen to the usa...
May I be the first on this thread to say: BTFD!
Your talking about Gold right?
Aw, dang it !!!! I just closed out of a Russell short, as I thought this was just a stop run down to yesterday's close, given today's ludicrously tight and boring trading range, but it's clear it's all about King Dollar, and this puppy's going further, perhaps one or two pivots down. My mistake, always consult the ZH headlines before acting (sigh)
Pigs get slaughtered! You had a gain, celebrate!!!
Well, yes, but still slightly down on the day due to violating my principle on low-ADX trading, which is either: a) don't trade at all, or b) longer holds based on the 15-min Stoch. Still learning that a) the best trade is often the ones you don't make and b) big spikes normally have at least a second push, so don't get scared out at the first resting place, trade a smaller posn and hold on ...
Dow and gold diverging big at the moment, what was the trigger Tyler?
Abe went down the toilet after his diaper.
With yen being printed to extinction, why buy the yen? Must be a dollar problem...
Gold is soaring too...someone leveraged is short of tap-on-the-shoulder money-good collateral?
Yup. Where is the yen demand coming from??
It's a paper market in paper. It might be 90%short covering/ forced margin buys. The "received wisdom" has been be short the Yen; when too many little people are short the market is vulnerable to the big people taking them for a little ride. Probably nothing in the real world.
This is quite surprising, at this rate...
Why surprising? check my comments before... I' say it was quite predictable. And this is nothing compared to what youbwill see in the future in terms of what will seem to you unexplainable girations.. YOU'd be better off reading my posts here and changing your frame of reference... then nothing will surprise you any more...
I guess this means that Thursday is NOT the new Tuesday.
She closes green today dont worry the five large was only tube 1.... They have tube 2 which will be the 3pm unsourced rumor, for a 100 dow lineshot up the middle..........
Santelli had a great analogy today when explaining currency wars.
Paraphrasing: When 2 last-place teams play against each other one of the teams is going to win.
I think China really wants Abe to lose the July election!
By the why, I love the headline. It is a masterpiece!
Absolutely China and/or Korea has been manipulating the JPY for quite some time now. Probably mostly China since they have more firepower at their disposal (ability to print more RMB without being noticed).
The thing I can't figure out is, why does Japan think that a strong currency is such a terrible thing? Unlike cheap Chinese and Korean junk whose only appeal is low price, Japanese goods will still sell among American and Euro consumers because of their quality even if the prices go up.
Heh bud you gone loopy! Wallymart don't sell made in japan!
Funny, Bloomberg doesn't say anything about gold....I wonder why....
I can't wait to watch the USD/JPY go the other way when the world loses faith in the Yen. Tyler may get to see the banks blow up for real.
The world has lost faith in all fiat currencies. This is a question of relative value only and for the very short term. Markets will girate (bifurcate) more and more as the end game approaches. This will happen since as the CBs print more and more they are increasing the gain of the feedback loop, makng it unstable. A poor analogy but ilkustrative is that as the values go to near infinite, the relative game that only looks at differences increases in size since smalller and smaller difference will very quickly approach infinite themselves, making the cost of smaller and smaller mistakes infinite. Again, this is typical fractal/chaotic behavior... CBs and politicians are way over their heads on this, and economixsts of 40 or more were never educated on this either, not sure on the level of underxtanding of the younger ones...
This could decrease egg roll trade.
China dumping dollars for yen? I wrote an essay about this back in the late 90's, with China using it's leverage in T-bills to cause a run on the dollar. While this doesn't look to me like a full-on dollar run, maybe the Mandarins are sending someone a message?
Maybe Michelle Obama should show up to that summit with the Chinese First Lady, after all.
This is not meant in Anyway as A racial comment but the faces on CflemBC all look mighty Yellow today or do i need to adjust the colour button on my screen or am i drinking too much??
What about Japan selling T-bills to buy YEN to prop up the NK?
I read through the first few comments here and it seems people are confused as fuck by that chart. That chart is showing the USD crashing not the JPY.
USD/JPY. The first symbol is the base currency. The base currency is set at 1 unit (in this case the dollar). So for every dollar you get "x" (the amount shown on the chart) Yen. As that number goes down the Yen is getting stronger.
Oh noes, down 2%! Load your guns and hide your gold, the world is coming to an end!!!!111
Yeah, this is nothing much to right home about. Message sending or shoulder taping, call it what you will. Someone wake me up when USDJPY=80 so I can dial 1-800-RUN!!
Edit: Of course, it is an opportunity for some to make some scratch, while someone on the other side of the ledger will be making it a double tonight.
I like how you can zoom in on any chart's scale to make it much more dramatic. "Let's take a look at Global Warming..."
Am I reading this right? So if everyone is dumping their carry trade positions (forcing them to buy YEN) I would suspect that Japan's CB will now step in devalue it more.. So I should be long USDJPY for an incredible rebound trade in the next couple days?
I don't normally get involved in currency trading myself, outside a purely intellectual exercise. But I would imagine that BoJ cannot let this stand. They'll crank the printing presses to 12 to try and get USDJPY back into the 100s.
Mrs. Watanabe has left the building; LOL. A lot of those older Japanese houses do have outdoor crappers.