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Real Unemployment Rate: 11.3%

Tyler Durden's picture




 

There are job numbers, and then there are job numbers which make sense in the context of a US population that keeps rising.

By now the trick of lowering the unemployment rate courtesy of a "collapsing" labor force participation rate is known by all. As we showed earlier, the LFP, despite posting a tiny 0.1% uptick in May, was still at 30 year lows.

Another way of seeing the above is the following chart which shows the annual change in the total civilian non-institutional population side by side with the change in the labor force. That plunge since 2009? That must be all demographics, and nothing to do with the collapse in the economy...

This is just as stark when compared to the overall US population which rose by 188K jobs, meaning that the employment to population rate was flat at 58.6%, and has now been largely unchanged for the past five years.

What is laughable is that for all talk of demographic issues, the big drop started with the Great Financial Crisis, and has barely bottomed. This is even more laughable when one considers that it is the older workers, or those who supposedly should be retiring if one buys the propaganda narrative, who have seen the bulk of job gains in the past 5 years.

In short: this is merely a favorite BLS gimmick to push the unemployment rate lower for purely political reasons (to the benefit of the administration that makes the content of your emails the most transparent to NSA workers, ever).

The problem is that this transitory fudging gimmick would be sustainable if the US population was no longer rising, however since there is no indication of any taper on the horizon, sooner or later, the historical labor force participation rate will have to be regained. Logically, when that happens, the unemployment rate will have no choice but to soar as the Labor Force soars month after month because sadly even the great welfare state of America has only so much funds it can allocate to an inert population that does no work and merely sits around all day long.

So how does the narrow unemployment rate (U-3, not to be confused with the wider, Underemployment U-6 rate) look if one applies a longer-term average Labor Force Participation rate of 65.8%?

In a word: not pretty. As of May, assuming realistic LFP assumptions, the real U-3 unemployment rate should have been not 7.6% but 11.3%.

Luckily, we know that the administration couldn't possibly be fudging numbers maliciously, and for purely political purposes. Why: because it is too busy spying on those who are unemployed and have nothing better to do.

Speaking of, perhaps a better way to estimate the unemployment rate than the BLS' woefully inadequate and obsolete process would be for the NSA to keep a word count of how many times the word "job application" appears daily in the petabytes of electronic data it intercepts daily. We are confident that data series would be far more valuable than anything provided by the BLS.

 

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Fri, 06/07/2013 - 11:04 | 3633710 kliguy38
kliguy38's picture

Try 23% and you would be warm

Fri, 06/07/2013 - 11:11 | 3633726 Lets_Eat_Ben
Lets_Eat_Ben's picture

This isn't Spain, yet.

Fri, 06/07/2013 - 11:13 | 3633740 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

And there are jobbed numbers.

Fri, 06/07/2013 - 11:24 | 3633770 BLOTTO
BLOTTO's picture

These days...im not sure what the fuck IS real anymore...

 

Fri, 06/07/2013 - 11:32 | 3633799 Vaiman
Vaiman's picture

And just as things hit their peak the bloomberg machine has to reinforce the rally by adding this little segment.  Maybe get another leg up.  The buyers however will get a spanking when the turn around happens.  I'm sure the big boys are using this as an opportunity to unload on the dumb money.  

 

Payrolls in U.S. Rose 175,000 in May, Unemployment 7.6%

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-06-07/payrolls-in-u-s-increased-175-000-in-may-unemployment-at-7-6-.html

Fri, 06/07/2013 - 11:46 | 3633845 insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

I want to know how tax receipts are doing.

Fri, 06/07/2013 - 12:04 | 3633932 Hohum
Hohum's picture

Insanely Sane,

Tax receipts are doing okay, but of course the payroll tax went up 1/1/13.  You can see monthly reports at www.fms.treas.gov. 

Fri, 06/07/2013 - 13:40 | 3634453 SeattleBruce
SeattleBruce's picture

Bush's fault, because we place all our hope and trust in Obama!  Where's Moveon.org when we need 'em??  Aw drat - it's that whole red pill, blue pill thing...of course they've taken the 'blue' pill cause they're good Democrats, and that's all that matters!  And when the Pubbies are in power, same thing...don't you think they'd be just a little bit curious downin' that 'blue' pill??

Over/under - 5% of the US is actually awake and thinking...

Fri, 06/07/2013 - 11:34 | 3633807 malikai
malikai's picture

If you just flip the labor force participation rate chart upside down, it's a big smiley face.

That's why the markets are up so much today.

I heard it from an inside source at CNBC so I know it's a fact.

Fri, 06/07/2013 - 12:45 | 3634170 Bad Attitude
Bad Attitude's picture

These days...im not sure what the fuck IS real anymore...

A good first step in finding the truth is to assume Dear Leader and his regime are lying. Besides the ongoing manipulation... er... lying about unemployment and other economic data, we've had a front-row seat watching administration apparatchiks lie about elements of a growing collection of scandals, and then having those lies being unequivocally exposed as lies.

Forward (accelerating over the cliff)!

 

Fri, 06/07/2013 - 11:51 | 3633870 Stoploss
Stoploss's picture

Fortunately, we only have 14 more quarters to go!!

Fri, 06/07/2013 - 11:39 | 3633817 auntiesocial
auntiesocial's picture

you know what I want? I want to see stats for jobs NOT INCLUDING anything under 36K. I mean for the love of christ, even 36K ain't livin... this clusterfuck is just beginning and you are damn right the possiblity of civil unrest is very real once the interest rate start creeping up. 

Fri, 06/07/2013 - 11:48 | 3633856 Aeternus
Aeternus's picture

North of 25% is warmer.....

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=deuC8GPr31A

Fri, 06/07/2013 - 11:04 | 3633712 Shocker
Shocker's picture

How is there an Unemployment rate, then a Real Unemployment rate??

Fri, 06/07/2013 - 13:44 | 3634472 SeattleBruce
SeattleBruce's picture

Right.  Under-employment is definitely a huge feature of the propaganda too, as many of those folks want FT jobs with bennies, and have neither but are dutifully counted as employed...

Fri, 06/07/2013 - 11:05 | 3633717 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Time to join a commune. Nobody is working. Utopia around the corner. Who's got the acid.

Fri, 06/07/2013 - 11:07 | 3633722 optimator
optimator's picture

Congrats to Tyler for yesterdays explanation of why the market turned from deep red to deep green in a matter of minutes.  (Early distribution to the connected that the phoney employment numbers would be really good this morning!)

Fri, 06/07/2013 - 11:10 | 3633731 Tsunami Wave
Tsunami Wave's picture

WTF ya'll. CNBC and Bloomberg said that because of green shoots, summer recovery, the stimulus, Obamacare, and QE the unemployment rate should drop at any moment, the economy will be roaring and we'll be living like we're in the 90s again! WHY WAS I LIED TO!!!!

Fri, 06/07/2013 - 11:15 | 3633743 cloudybrain
cloudybrain's picture

thats called Recover y

Fri, 06/07/2013 - 11:19 | 3633750 1835jackson
1835jackson's picture

How can anyone believe any statistic from the government? BLS- is just pure propaganda. But continue on in blissful ignorance. This economy is going to crash, the EU will be undone. NWO is coming soon with a gun in one hand and hand cuffs in another...the filithy bastards.

Fri, 06/07/2013 - 11:20 | 3633760 aphlaque_duck
aphlaque_duck's picture

I'm on strike - do I count?

Fri, 06/07/2013 - 11:22 | 3633762 rustymason
rustymason's picture

To the extent that the "workers" (love those commie terms) dropping out of the workforce are women, the unemployment numbers are a good thing. Women had abandoned our children and their role as supporters of community and society in the 1960's en masse, and the last couple of generations have turned out to be barbarians. Next step: kill Big Government Pimp Daddy which pays whores to squeeze out packs of little barbarians.

Fri, 06/07/2013 - 11:30 | 3633790 NotAMathWhiz
NotAMathWhiz's picture

Hmmm, seems to me you should look up the stats on single, un-wed mothers for a little perspective.  An equal argument could be made that it's the inner-city men screwing anything with a heartbeat and taking no responsibility that's bringing so many barbarians into this world.

Fri, 06/07/2013 - 12:45 | 3634172 rustymason
rustymason's picture

No mercy for the men, either, we let it happen.

Fri, 06/07/2013 - 14:26 | 3634675 Totentänzerlied
Totentänzerlied's picture

The argument is cyclical, in case you hadn't realized that.

Fri, 06/07/2013 - 11:22 | 3633765 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

The next wave of shovel ready jobs [to fill in the debt holes dug from the last round of shovel ready jobs], won't be voted on & appropriated until Congress gets back from vacation...

Fri, 06/07/2013 - 11:26 | 3633775 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

   BLS gets all their stats from PRISM data. There's lots of hopium flowing through (PRISM, Obuma phone data.)

Fri, 06/07/2013 - 11:27 | 3633777 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

"According to Cantor Fitzgerald CEO Shawn Matthews, you can expect interest rates on 10-Year US Treasury bonds to move up to 2.4% very soon. Though that may not seem like much, “that can inflict some pain” to bond investors according to Matthews.

Few people are as in-tune with the Treasury markets quite like Matthews. Cantor Fitzgerald is one of only 21 primary dealers authorized to trade with the New York Federal Reserve Bank. And, they trade about half of all Treasury securities.

As investors leave the bond market, they’re headed elsewhere, namely stocks. This is occurring while Matthews expects the Federal Reserve Bank to reduce the money supply by year’s end.

On another note, Matthews also believes there will be a change in how investment bankers get paid. Though he doesn’t see the end of giant paychecks, he does believe that bankers will find their compensation tied more and more to their banks stocks."

 

Fri, 06/07/2013 - 12:24 | 3634049 tip e. canoe
tip e. canoe's picture

more jawboning from the goobersmoochers...first Dimon (yesterday in China), then Greenspan, now Cantor.  it's a vertible full-court press by the parasite clique.

one must ask oneself where these TPD's make their $ from -- is it long or short or is it the churn?  

Fri, 06/07/2013 - 11:28 | 3633781 JJ McApe
JJ McApe's picture

back to 79 ;)

but bernank said he will keep printing until we reach 6.5% - so forever

kkthxbai

Fri, 06/07/2013 - 11:28 | 3633784 Vaiman
Vaiman's picture

Hey it's just the same old game the market makers use to play the game.  Real facts don't matter.  News is what they use and the traders either follow or get out of the way cause no one is going to prevent them doing whatever the hell they want...not even the real facts.  When big money controls everything it doesn't matter what's real...they make their own reality in the markets

Fri, 06/07/2013 - 11:30 | 3633788 Duude
Duude's picture

We should see an even larger drop in the unemployment rate as more and more smaller employers seek to avoid Obamacare fines by simply reducing employee hours below 30. That should lead to more part time work for others.

Fri, 06/07/2013 - 11:30 | 3633791 fnordfnordfnord
fnordfnordfnord's picture

Only 11% ? Bullish!

Fri, 06/07/2013 - 11:31 | 3633795 observer007
observer007's picture

Anonymous Leaks DoD Documents - Response To PRISM

These documents prove that the NSA is spying on you, and not just Americans.  They are spying on the citizens of over 35 different countries.

http://homment.com/dod-documents

Fri, 06/07/2013 - 11:41 | 3633798 thismarketisrigged
thismarketisrigged's picture

first thing first, let me say congrats to goldman sachs, a totally legit and ethical firm who has never done inside trading or anything illegal ever. they were spot on with their prediction of jobs added at 175,000. gee, i wonder how they were so dead on.

 

secondly, i am surprised that the real unemployment rate at 11.6 percent is even that low. i would think its got to be around at least 20 percent.

 

also, isnt it amazing how the u.s markets are now green i believe overall for week? wow, would not want to ever have a red week.

 

question is, who the fuck in this shitty fucking economy is fucking buying this market at this price?

i really pray everyday that something bad happens to bernanke, all other doves on the fed, and all of wall st. and of course our useless piece of shit president obama, who can go fuck himself

 

also, isnt it funny how aprils jobs reports were revised down from 165,000 to 149,000 but markets totally ignore that. yet when numbers were revised up last month, markets of course look at that.

 

also, how the fuck is the market up so fucking much today? even if these numbers were real ( which to anyone who believes they are, i have a bridge to sell you) the numbers barely beat expectations. this market is disgustingly rigged.

Fri, 06/07/2013 - 12:25 | 3634058 Creepy Lurker
Creepy Lurker's picture

Welcome to the government enemies list. Someone get him a drink.

Fri, 06/07/2013 - 11:33 | 3633801 GrinandBearit
GrinandBearit's picture

Huh? 

Shadow stats show it is way higher than 11.5%.

Fri, 06/07/2013 - 12:24 | 3634044 kill switch
kill switch's picture

The seasonally-adjusted SGS Alternate Unemployment Rate reflects current unemployment reporting methodology adjusted for SGS-estimated long-term discouraged workers, who were defined out of official existence in 1994. That estimate is added to the BLS estimate of U-6 unemployment, which includes short-term discouraged workers.

The U-3 unemployment rate is the monthly headline number. The U-6 unemployment rate is the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) broadest unemployment measure, including short-term discouraged and other marginally-attached workers as well as those forced to work part-time because they cannot find full-time employment. Shadow stats has it at 23%. They lie about every fucking thing they touch!!! Oh shit I forget about PRISM
Fri, 06/07/2013 - 11:33 | 3633803 nomorebuyins
nomorebuyins's picture

Full retard!

Fri, 06/07/2013 - 11:33 | 3633804 bdub2
bdub2's picture

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - "U.S. employers stepped up hiring a bit in May in a show of economic resilience that suggests the Federal Reserve could begin to scale back its monetary stimulus later this year."

...so MDB writes for Reuters? good for him. Let me try this: "I find his economic coverage refreshing, and a beacon of much needed light amidst a sea of what seems like an unsettling increase in negative viewpoints pervading our beautiful nation these days."  

Good enough. Now, off to projectile vommit. 

Fri, 06/07/2013 - 14:04 | 3634580 Nobody For President
Nobody For President's picture

Not bad channeling MDB - just don't malke a habit out of it, you may get addicted and need to enter a 12 step program of economic sanity. 

Fri, 06/07/2013 - 11:38 | 3633811 jomama
jomama's picture

actually, it's a lot closer to 20% domestically.

Fri, 06/07/2013 - 11:50 | 3633812 TuesdayBen
TuesdayBen's picture

The only thing that matters today is that your Gubmint - via the NSA, part of the US military - has been for years and still is very effectively spying on you. The Gubmint, the one you fund, the one that exists to protect you, your rights and freedoms and interests as an American, has for years secretly been spying on you and recording its findings.

Does anyone doubt that the info secretly gleaned will one day be wrongly used?

Gubmint is a cancer that eventually kills its host - the citizenry - unless the citizenry removes the tumor in time. History has recorded this pattern.

The time to rip out the tumor is here. Droning of citizens. IRS witch hunts. Reckless Fed. TBTF lunacy. Rigged markets. Massive spying on citizens.

Until the tumor is destroyed and gubmint back to its limited role working *for* the people, all else is charade and folly.

Fri, 06/07/2013 - 11:51 | 3633873 insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

You are probably safe unless you try to run for a political office and then Harry Reid will have a copy of your tax returns and communications for the last 10 years.

 

ps.

Fuck you, you NSA/IRS/GovAlphaSoup fuck listening in!

Fri, 06/07/2013 - 11:56 | 3633893 TuesdayBen
TuesdayBen's picture

And now a bureaucrat between you and your doctor. What a great fucking idea

Fri, 06/07/2013 - 11:39 | 3633814 nomorebuyins
nomorebuyins's picture

Taper! We don't need no stinking taper!

Fri, 06/07/2013 - 11:40 | 3633818 jtlien
jtlien's picture

At least in the good old Third Reich you could get a cushy spy job.

Now its all done with computers and networks.

Pretty soon the computers will auto invoke the proper drone strike when needed.

Fri, 06/07/2013 - 11:48 | 3633858 Oldrepublic
Oldrepublic's picture

over 4 million Americans hold security clearances with over 1 million having access to top secret materials.

excellent book Top Secret America

Fri, 06/07/2013 - 11:42 | 3633825 VanillaSkyGuy
VanillaSkyGuy's picture

Quit fighting the fed. The last four years have been a gift, all of this stuff is just noise... And many of you might have missed it. Eventually you will be right...

Fri, 06/07/2013 - 11:42 | 3633827 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

     When I turn my monitor upside down the labor participation rate looks pretty good.

Fri, 06/07/2013 - 11:44 | 3633834 q99x2
q99x2's picture

I assert my rights as a corporation. When do I get my bailout?

Fri, 06/07/2013 - 13:54 | 3633848 kahunabear
kahunabear's picture

Come to Amerika where everything is free, except you.

Fri, 06/07/2013 - 11:58 | 3633907 MedicalQuack
MedicalQuack's picture

You hit the nail on the head "context"...something I think we should all ask today...what context is being used on all the reports and studies we see today.  My favorite video on this topic is from a professor at NYU and he does a good job with explaining this to the layman, along with a brief run down on what P Values are and math modeling.  He covers a lot of the clinical trial junk and at the end talks about a modeling error that was started during the Reagan administration relative to nuclear weapons that still hangs around today relative to peace treaties and it's about 42 minutes into the video...very intresting and is a prime example of erroneous models, like the ones uses on Wall Street that hide accuracy and risk and just make money. The book is good too "Proofiness, the Dark Arts of Mathematical Deception" he wrrote about 2-3 years ago, just ahead of his time. 

http://ducknetweb.blogspot.com/2012/01/context-is-everythingmore-about-d...

I also siad last year that without the correct context that consumers will be hurt with a lot of the marketed analytics out there.  After this week with the NSA, anyone for discussing context:)

http://ducknetweb.blogspot.com/2012/01/context-is-everythingmore-about-d...

It all depends on the "Query Master" as I call it with analytics projects.  Rematching de identified data is a big deal too and Bloomberg did a good visual on how this works today.  I used to write software and work with data bases and rematching, depending on the resources one is working with is not that hard and again it comss right back around to "context" as to how the Query Master and owners of the data are going to interpret and use it.   We see studies out there all the time that don't include the data, the basis for the analyrics, so how can it be tested if the content is not available. I think the jobs reports is in dire need of a new model and agree. 

http://ducknetweb.blogspot.com/2013/06/re-identifying-medical-records-al...

Fri, 06/07/2013 - 12:19 | 3634020 CheapBastard
CheapBastard's picture

My jobless neighbor says "unemployment is 100% for him."

 

 

Fri, 06/07/2013 - 12:28 | 3634069 bnbdnb
bnbdnb's picture

The population aged 16-54 IS NOT GROWING. Why the fuck would their count of jobs held go up?

Fri, 06/07/2013 - 12:34 | 3634096 Chippewa Partners
Chippewa Partners's picture

Looks like Dr. Burry has some extra time on his hands.........

http://scionasset.com/

Fri, 06/07/2013 - 12:35 | 3634097 HMan666
HMan666's picture

You can add another ~3% to the "real" rate from the Federal Disability Program alone. 750,000 apps/month:

 

http://money.msn.com/saving-money-tips/post.aspx?post=b854e799-9271-46e1-895a-76f7df2b98d7

 

Fri, 06/07/2013 - 12:36 | 3634109 bnbdnb
bnbdnb's picture

Why has CES employment grown 800k more than household employment since Jan 2010?

Fri, 06/07/2013 - 12:37 | 3634114 RaceToTheBottom
RaceToTheBottom's picture

Hot jobs:  NSA Data Mining.

Must be technologically aware and not averse to porn.

Fri, 06/07/2013 - 14:11 | 3634611 Nobody For President
Nobody For President's picture

A strong dislike of the first 10 amendments to the Constitution a plus.

Fri, 06/07/2013 - 12:57 | 3634215 Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

Sorry to disappoint everyone but there is one thing we have overlooked.. In 1968 one in 51workers was on disability whereas the figure is now one in 13. Despite advances in medicine,, occupational health and safety and mechanical technology, we are supposed to believe that the rate of disability has quadrupled? Of course not. Unemployment payments are funded jointly by the Fed govt and the states whereas disability payments are funded only by the Federal government. The states therefore have teams scouring the unemployment lists for disability candidates.

So if the true disability rate is only 1 in 51 like in 1968, then around 7.5 million out of the 11 million really belong to the unemployment list.

So what is the true rate ofunemloyment now?

Fri, 06/07/2013 - 13:19 | 3634332 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

Amercia: Fuck Yeah?

Fri, 06/07/2013 - 13:37 | 3634439 10mm
10mm's picture

Philadelphia school district sends out 3500+ layoff notices today,FRIDAY.Have a Nice Fuckin Weekend.

Fri, 06/07/2013 - 13:49 | 3634497 Nue
Nue's picture

What's the big deal it's not like teachers teach anymore and I'm sure the kids will be able to figure out how to put the condom on the bananna by themselves.

Fri, 06/07/2013 - 14:22 | 3634652 MFLTucson
MFLTucson's picture

So the report is a fraud.  So is everything that is done in DC and on Wall Street, ...why the surprise?  As for 11.3%, that too is laughable, closer to 20%

Fri, 06/07/2013 - 14:36 | 3634709 Totentänzerlied
Totentänzerlied's picture

You can be a sheep who looks at manipulated jobs stats, or you can ask - but how much purchasing power does the worker receive for his labor?

The answer is ... Less and less and less.

100% unemployment with poverty-level wages (measured in/adjusted for purchasing power) does not a healthy economy make.

It's not even that complicated of a logical exercise, people just don't give a fuck. Oh look, the DJIA is green, hooray.

If they wanted to actually inform rather than deceive with their statistics, they'd factor in wage data and adjust for inflation/deflation using a realistic measure, say a basket of commodities (in the generic sense) including food, housing, and fuels - you know "cost of living". What a fucking joke.

Fri, 06/07/2013 - 16:11 | 3635087 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

This from Heidi Moore:

Here's the buzzkill: this is not actually good news.

It's hard to celebrate just because the economy added 10,000 more jobs than the "consensus" of experts believed it would. In the world of some economists, that's wonderful – for ego reasons. These economists treat the jobs numbers like baseball playoffs – numbers on a scoreboard, and cheers when your team wins – instead of what the data really tell us.

What they tell us is an indication of how many Americans will continue to suffer joblessness long-term through a weak recovery. For the 12 million people still unemployed in the US, for the unprecedented number of Americans on food stamps, it's hard to take any real comfort from the fact that a database ticked upward by 10,000 jobs – and thus gratified someone sitting in a cubicle who'd picked a number out of a hat.

Trusting the initial monthly numbers is, in any case, a fool's errand: every month, the BLS warns that its initial jobs numbers could be wrong – by 100,000 jobs. As a testament to the unreliability of these monthly numbers, Friday's release also included a pretty important revision downwards to last month's numbers, by 16,000 jobs.

And there are reasons why May's job gains themselves are less than totally satisfying. Many of the gains were largely in low-paying retail positions, which the economy has been adding at roughly twice the rate of middle-class jobs. Better-paying sectors like manufacturing are still suffering.

Overall, the economy has lost roughly 8.8 million jobs since 2008; it has replaced less than one quarter of those since. We haven't come anywhere near closing the gap with employment in 2007, before the crisis ravaged the picture

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2013/jun/07/may-jobs-report-econ...

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