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For Those Still Wondering If The Unemployment Situation Is Cyclical Or Structural

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Presented with no comment...

 

 

 

(h/t @Not_Jim_Cramer)

 

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Fri, 06/07/2013 - 19:11 | 3635624 I think I need ...
I think I need to buy a gun's picture

we may need the 599 week program now

Fri, 06/07/2013 - 19:27 | 3635667 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

599 a week for 599 weeks.

Fri, 06/07/2013 - 19:34 | 3635684 philipat
philipat's picture

Does that include a Verizon phone?

Fri, 06/07/2013 - 19:38 | 3635692 noless
noless's picture

yes

Fri, 06/07/2013 - 19:45 | 3635710 knukles
knukles's picture

Bah humbug.
It's transitory, caused by faulty seasonal adjustments.

Sat, 06/08/2013 - 09:25 | 3636879 Doowleb
Doowleb's picture

Canada's numbers where also released. 95,000 jobs created in May. That's the equivalent of 900,000 jobs in the US economy.

I'm sure our CONSERVATIVE government and Prime Minister have nothing to do with it. Just luck really.

Sat, 06/08/2013 - 09:36 | 3636895 jerry_theking_lawler
jerry_theking_lawler's picture

I'll take it...then work for cash...

Fri, 06/07/2013 - 21:20 | 3636018 Common_Cents22
Common_Cents22's picture

does not include verizon phone, but does include an obama phone.   Wait, they are ALL obama phones now.

 

We alllllll bundle!!!!!   

Fri, 06/07/2013 - 22:43 | 3636243 Stoploss
Stoploss's picture

The trend is your friend!!!

 

Wait, WTF??

Fri, 06/07/2013 - 19:43 | 3635703 B2u
B2u's picture

We already have it.  It is called disability.

Fri, 06/07/2013 - 21:55 | 3636119 ISEEIT
ISEEIT's picture

Bingo!

Once the Unemployment 'runs out' whatcha gunna do?

It used to be that people would 'game' the system.

Now the 'system' is the game.

Sat, 06/08/2013 - 12:37 | 3637175 Midasking
Midasking's picture

I don't know that little dip on the end looks to me like a green shoot.. http://tinyurl.com/n8hmfya

Fri, 06/07/2013 - 19:12 | 3635626 They trynna cat...
They trynna catch me ridin dirty's picture

"We need da goverment to create more jobs and give people money ta go ta college!!!"

Fri, 06/07/2013 - 19:16 | 3635633 HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

So dehs can all be computah pogramahs!

 

Fri, 06/07/2013 - 19:24 | 3635658 ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

Nah, be a doctah.  

Fri, 06/07/2013 - 19:47 | 3635714 knukles
knukles's picture

Yo momma.
Y'all be playin' doctah wid me, bitch.

Fri, 06/07/2013 - 20:19 | 3635838 philipat
philipat's picture

Na, dehs all gonna work for da NSA.

Sat, 06/08/2013 - 00:47 | 3636518 urbanelf
urbanelf's picture

How does a sociologist get a job at the NSA?

Fri, 06/07/2013 - 20:22 | 3635844 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

One can't help but wonder with the predicted shortage of doctors, major unemployment, rampant student loans and the government's undying need to solve problems that only they can create, how many "doctors"we will have in twenty years that never graduated high school.

Sat, 06/08/2013 - 04:45 | 3636678 zhandax
zhandax's picture

More likely the only existing 'doctors' 20 years from now just started college today.  Search 'Flexner report' from around 1910.  Here is a starter: http://mises.org/daily/4276

Fri, 06/07/2013 - 21:59 | 3636136 ISEEIT
ISEEIT's picture

I goin' to be a union doctah. Maebe I even be a doctah just for the union? Long I be a doctah doh. Bein a doctah be good.

Know what I sayin?

Fri, 06/07/2013 - 19:13 | 3635628 cdntrader
cdntrader's picture

So far, on the way down, forward PE went from 11 to 15... at this rate, we should have a 26x PE when re-entering in the "cyclical" range. S&P 2,964... Logical.

Fri, 06/07/2013 - 19:16 | 3635634 Surrealist
Surrealist's picture

Imagine what would happen to the Unemployment Rate if unemployment benefits were extended from 99 weeks to 198 weeks and the impact this would have on the workforce participation rate?

Fri, 06/07/2013 - 19:24 | 3635657 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

I was thinking we could just count the unemployed as employed while they are drawing UC benefits.  They're drawing a paycheck after all.  When those run out, obviously we just stop counting them, as we do already.  Problem solved.

Fri, 06/07/2013 - 19:31 | 3635674 ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

Think about how many hands touch that unemployment check.  How many gubmint workers can hit Vegas because of that check.

Fri, 06/07/2013 - 21:22 | 3636020 Common_Cents22
Common_Cents22's picture

remember pelosi called UE "stimulus" with a straight face(or was that botox?)

Fri, 06/07/2013 - 22:03 | 3636145 ISEEIT
ISEEIT's picture

According to the Book of Nancy, many of these citizens may in fact be Artist or other such representatives of our fine culture. To not count them would be an insult to both social justice and the diversity that truly represents the greatest strength of 'our' people.

Dontcha know?

Fri, 06/07/2013 - 19:20 | 3635644 Poor Grogman
Poor Grogman's picture

Has anyone told the Bernank that it wont be any easier for the unemployed, when food and fuel costs 2 or 3 times more.

Go printers go...

Fri, 06/07/2013 - 19:31 | 3635669 Kreditanstalt
Kreditanstalt's picture

OTOH, today's "unemployment" may not be "unemployment" as measured in the 1950s and 1960s, before we were burdened with the unemployment insurance scheme, welfare, foodstamps, etc.

If you are out of work but NOT on the dole in some way, and are not collecting an unemployment check and not "registered" by government as "looking for work", you are EMPLOYED.   "Duration of unemployment" is - now! - measured by how long you are on one of these programs, not on whether you are truly "unemployed"...

Fri, 06/07/2013 - 19:38 | 3635691 Nue
Nue's picture

My sister has no job, gets welfare, food stamps and has a higher tax return at the end of the year than i do. If you add it all together her income is equal to or exceeds my take home pay working. Not to mention she's also thinking about applying for S.S.I due to a very bad car accident she was in 8 years ago. God it drives me freaking crazy that a person can work hard go to college and be outstaged by a welfare queen in the end.

Fri, 06/07/2013 - 22:06 | 3636158 ISEEIT
ISEEIT's picture

Yeah, oh well but the important part is who does she vote for?

Seriously dude. Not those deranged 'teabaggers' I would hope?

And God (sorry) forbid fucking Libertarians...EEWW

Sat, 06/08/2013 - 02:41 | 3636620 imbrbing
imbrbing's picture

Sorry dude. Lots of us have a similar story :( And when it is your own family members, crap.......

Fri, 06/07/2013 - 20:26 | 3635856 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

Hey! "unemployed" is not politically correct. We should refer to them as public labor surplus representatives on sabbatical.

Fri, 06/07/2013 - 19:47 | 3635715 Jason T
Jason T's picture

IF you are collecting unemployment are will be, you are fouled...

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/06/07/unemployment-benefits-cut-part-...

 

Fri, 06/07/2013 - 19:49 | 3635725 rubearish10
rubearish10's picture

So, one person is working 2 jobs it counts as 2 people working, correct? So, the double digit U-6 and labor participation rates are skewed even more! Almost every young adult I know is working 2 jobs.

Fri, 06/07/2013 - 22:11 | 3636168 ISEEIT
ISEEIT's picture

How nice of them..True patriots. Fine young people like those who you know will become the very backbone of our 'new' america. Those young patriots able to afford to pay their fair share and contribute to the glorious new entitlement of obozocare.

The key is that these strapping young citizens do their part to insure the success of this vital program in transforming this nation from one in which the 'haves' have, to one in which..

Ah shit, never mind.

Fri, 06/07/2013 - 19:59 | 3635756 Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

It ain't cyclical and it ain't structural. It will be perpetual and I'm not kidding.

Fri, 06/07/2013 - 20:05 | 3635778 Cheshire
Cheshire's picture

bullish

Fri, 06/07/2013 - 20:10 | 3635801 venturen
venturen's picture

could we measure that against the average public employee pension?

Fri, 06/07/2013 - 20:24 | 3635847 gatorengineer
gatorengineer's picture

Doesnt mean a thing.... Try Median and reload......  the 99 weekers have it skewed....  It will come back down in direct proportion to the percentage of folks who can draw past 99 weeks.

Fri, 06/07/2013 - 22:15 | 3636175 ISEEIT
ISEEIT's picture

Isn't that called the multiplier effect?

Fri, 06/07/2013 - 20:39 | 3635898 newworldorder
newworldorder's picture

Our unemployment situation is structural and has been so since 2000. Very simply millions of jobs have moved to Asia since 1980. Millions of new "immigrants have come to the US and compete both at the low end and high end tech jobs. American universities have educated the best foreign students and many have returned to their countries and entered into competition with us.

For those of us who entered the workforce in the mid 1970s, what we have witnessed in the last 20 years is incomprehensible.

Willingly and through our political system, we have abandoned our high tech base and embraced low end service industries work. The majority today does not know what full employment is, much less full empl., with jobs that pay a living income for a family unit. How does one start a family, buy a home and raise children on $30k to $40K annual income?

The "frog has been boiled very slowly" and the majority are no longer capable of making rational political decisions that will turn our economic situation around. Most are in survival mode, unable to contemplate what their grandfathers and fathers had, but lost.

 

Society abhors pessimism and defeatism - as it should. But clearly the pure optimism that is gushing from this administration and the MSM is a false optimism, deprived of the depth of resolve to make things better. Economically - we are willingly killing ourselves.

Fri, 06/07/2013 - 22:16 | 3636179 ISEEIT
ISEEIT's picture

That or we're simply being fucked?

Sat, 06/08/2013 - 07:45 | 3636762 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

Our first response is to always assign guilt to others when in reality it is ourselves that are most often the culprit. We gave our jobs away by buying foreign made goods. Nobody forced us, they just made it easy. Our politicians lied to us by telling us we could have cheap foreign goods AND good paying jobs. The work we were too good for, right? Now we are finding we are good for nothing but sitting in front of the TV and crying for more. More benefits and "rights" to affordable healthcare, housing and good paying jobs that demand nothing more from us than politically correct behavior. We know better and always have but like theft it becomes easier to rationalize when "everyone else is doing it".

Fri, 06/07/2013 - 20:40 | 3635900 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Employment SUCKS.

We all know it, so anyone saying otherwise quit bullshitting.

With the open door immigration of illegals from Latin America and green card Muslims and others to provide cheap labor for the corporatocracy we need 600,000+ added in jobs to even think about "recovery".

Fri, 06/07/2013 - 20:51 | 3635938 Billy Shears
Billy Shears's picture

A part of me wants this to blow up right now and then another part of me says maybe not just yet.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=StV9lElcvAY

 

Sat, 06/08/2013 - 00:25 | 3636486 robochess
robochess's picture

what's the unemployment rate in Cairo, Baltimore, Philly?

Sat, 06/08/2013 - 00:34 | 3636497 Suisse
Suisse's picture

Looks like it's just due to the weather. 

Sat, 06/08/2013 - 01:08 | 3636548 Caveman93
Caveman93's picture

38 years old. Expenses below $1900/month with one income to more than cover. Just quit my $50k/yr job today to go back to school which is all paid for in savings from labor. I wish to spend it on my education before it gets too expensive. 50/50 cash and PM's saved up and don't owe a swinging dick anything other than my mortgage. Fuck working for a wage while putting up with miserable asshole customers and bosses. I'm going to get the degree I always wanted and chase my dreams...1 stack at a time.

Sat, 06/08/2013 - 11:55 | 3637105 VelvetHog
VelvetHog's picture

Sounds excellent except for the mortgage and degree parts.  If you really want a degree I will photshop your name onto my diploma and I will pay you $50 to take it.

Sat, 06/08/2013 - 12:56 | 3637214 Savyindallas
Savyindallas's picture

Move to Cuba or Venezuela and get a free education  -and where you actually might learn something useful other than propaganda or how to scam people. Libya is no longer an option.

Sat, 06/08/2013 - 14:17 | 3637391 Savyindallas
Savyindallas's picture

Maybe our plan is to destroy every country that offers their citizens free college education or health care  -damned Communists.

Sat, 06/08/2013 - 01:40 | 3636576 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Looks like a situated structured cyclic to me.

Sat, 06/08/2013 - 05:25 | 3636691 bunnyswanson
bunnyswanson's picture

whatever the fuck that means.  US assets are being transferred back into the hands of who granted them and are being re-invested where labor and taxes are more favorable.  The equation used to accomplish this task leaves blue collar and telecommunication in 1st world nations FUCKED. and their money is what is spent on main street.  it's a fucking design.  they future is going to reflect is shift of investments and a NEW FUCKING WORLD ORDER so the middle class will be eliminated and a new one created because what else can be done if profit is the goal?

Sat, 06/08/2013 - 12:52 | 3637208 Savyindallas
Savyindallas's picture

Feudalsim  -it's the wave of the future. Accept it -the serfs are too dumbed down, drugged up and brain rotted from poisonous water, food and drugs to resist - Hitler once remarked privately that once he conquered Russia, the only education the Russian peasants needed to know was how to count to 25. Same plan here. There will be four classes -the .01% who control 35% of the wealth (the Oligarchs) the 2.99% who control 30% of the wealth (Oligarchs famiies, suboligarchs and outsders who weasel their way into the Club), an additional 11% who control 20% of the wealth, who are the administrators (lawyers, very bright executives and skilled people)  who manage the serfs, act as high paid servants of the Ruling Class, and the remainder (80%) -the serfs and peasants who form the worker class - who get the remaining 15% and who get their daily dose of food, drugs, porn and other vices, as long as they are obedient, productive and who allow their wives, sons and daughters to be sexually exploited for the pleasure of their Masters. Those who resist will go to mental institutions, gulags, re-education camps, or privately owned prisons for use as slave labor  - reisstance at any of these  intitutions will result in a lobotomy or torture, or summary execution, as enemies of the State.

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