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Time To Get Out? What The Cult Of Bernanke Is Telling Us
Submitted by Tim Staermouse via Sovereign Man blog,
It’s always a bit amusing to meet an investor making money in the markets right now who actually thinks it’s because he’s smarter than everyone else.
Everyone knows the Fed’s quantitative easing program calls for them to buy $85 billion worth of bonds and mortgage backed securities each and every month. And the connection to market performance is clear.
To put this figure in perspective, $85 billion is DOUBLE the annual profits of Exxon Mobil. It’s also equivalent to ALL the money Chinese tourists spent overseas on holidays last year.
It’s also just over $1 trillion annually… which coincidentally is the headline budget deficit that the US federal government squanders each year.
With so much money being pumped into the market, stock investors should all have busts of Ben Bernanke next to their trading screens.
With few exceptions, analysis, street smarts, and fundamentals have practically been thrown out the window in favor of a tiny banking elite’s control over the PRINT button.
However, it now looks to me as though we may have entered a new phase. Institutional investors are beginning to look ahead and worry what will happen when that money is no longer being pumped into the market.
It may be 6 months away. It may be 18 months away. Only Ben Bernanke knows. But, while the markets have short memories looking back, they do tend to discount future events 12-18 months ahead of time.
And that’s beginning to happen.
We’re already seeing many stock markets coming off their highs. Plus most emerging market currencies have been struggling lately. Even the Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar, and Canadian dollar have been weak.
All of this indicates that the leveraged investing herd seems to be squaring positions, going to cash, and paying back some of the USD-denominated debt they’ve borrowed.
So far it’s all been an orderly move lower. And herein lies the trouble.
Few investors are spooked right now because there is so much calm in the markets. But that calm can quickly turn into anxiety, which can quickly turn into all-out panic.
It’s taken years (since 2008) to print so much money. This means that a market panic will unwind years’ worth of liquidity in a matter of weeks. It’s a financial tsunami that no investor should underestimate.
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Missing Jackson Hole is the tell.
Something's up....
You better believe there is....
Maybe he has to attend his kid's school play or something.
He's busy buying paper and toner.
His son was in Medical school ramping up $400,000 plus in debt. He knows he will crash the US dollar. He probably told his son to borrow as much as he can because his son will be paying back in worthless US dollars.
"I would recommend you panic." -Hugh Hendry
Avoid the rush, panic now.
I just panicked in my pants so I'm good to go.
PS - NSA and FBI, go to hell.
thanks for the chuckle
Panic now and get it over with.
...and paying back some of the USD-denominated debt they’ve borrowed.
Hey, that's deflationary. Can't have that. What can the Fed do to get that money rolled over into the next bubble? Have no doubt, they're working on it!
Let's get on with it already! People still have time to grow some root vegetables before fall.
"Time To Get Out?"
Catch the Jim Sinclair "Great Leveling" Tour 2013, coming soon to Vancouver and Chicago:
http://www.jsmineset.com/2013/06/06/upcoming-qa-meetings-where-to-next-2/
Sinclair is a fraud and snake oil salesman in addition to being a freemason. His increasingly irrational and erratic calls in the gold market are either the result of complete mental dissociation or, more likely, a calculated effort on the part of his "brotherhood" to draw more suckers into a increasingly risky and highly unprofitable play in the hopelessly manipulated PM markets, where they have been dumping their acquired position at record losses right into the hands of the banksters he pretends to abhor.
He's been a disciple of the dubious alleged pedophile Satya Sai Baba for years, funneling millions into this New Age huckster's billion dollar empire enlisting even more pathetic and credulous western dupes to divest themselves of their money and sense in the equally hopeless search for "enlightenment". In addition he cozies up to the Chicom overlords, the master enslavers of a third of humanity. Time to Get Out? Certainly not his Tanzanian Royalty Exploration yet another example of the mass exploitation of black Africans by their economic and political hegemons, groomed satraps of such western think tanks and foundations such as the CSIS.
another guy who thinks they can stop.....
correct fonz, there are real problems in the bond markets. Remember this is, hands down, the largest source of liquidity on earth. All these spikes up we are seeing are not normal at all. This is where the Fed will lose control, especially if other CBs start doing their own thing (like Japan). There most definitely is a "script" that is written in the fraternaty houses and houses of the bilderbergs and at the ivy league schools. Everybody had better stick to the script or all hell is going to break lose. I say bring it, it's the only way to effect real change.
http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/10_year
back to 2.12% bwahaha
with crude movin up to boot.
There is no "market", period. We have seen this before folks. Time to scare everyone back into treasuries. Sovereign debt must expand, that's how a fractional reserve system works. If debt shrinks, game over. And by "game over", I mean we actually win. The bankers/paper-pushers lose. Fucking bring it.
I have been spreading this far and wide. Simplest and most effective thing that can be done.
Cut yourself off from credit. Avoid debt whenever possible.
Fuck airline miles, "cash" back, etc. Go to a community college, live at home. Used cars for cash. Vacations paid for through savings.
Exponential functions do not end well once expansion stops.
pods
Use cash whenever possible. Donate commodities to charity (toys, toiletries, food, clothing, blood). Only keep enough cash in your bank account to cover bills.
"If debt shrinks, game over. And by "game over", I mean we actually win. The bankers/paper-pushers lose. Fucking bring it."
There are recent historical examples of this. Weimar Germany and the Russian Revolution are in that group.
The 'we win' groups in these cases tend to be the most violent psychopaths, not the saints.
A matter of weeks? Nanoseconds more likely...
The step changes may happen in nanoseconds. But there are circuit breakers in place to spread out those nanoseconds of open markets across a few days.
Ask not what you can do for your country, but what your country can do for me.
Great waking up every am knowing how screwed up things are. Oh well at least it's friday. Like that makes a fucking difference for all the casualties of the massive economic recovery.
Seems to be recent history that Panics, Devaluations, and Major Monetary Events take place over a weekend.
Hint: when a government says: It will never happen, on a Friday or Saturday,
It becomes reality the following week.
and not even a POMO-friday
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-05-31/shorting-stocks-these-pomo-days-june-will-be-hazardous-your-health
Despite the lack of fundamental bearing, the market will tell you what Bernanke's going to do before he does it. why? because after all the rigging it took to get the banks allegedly back to solvency, there is no way he will leave his banking bretheren hanging out to dry. They will get plenty of warning in advance of any major action and you will see it in the tape. Perhaps this small pullback is the beginning of it, perhaps not, but as of now, nothing I see is unusual activity in a bull market.
the hell you will
What you'll see is various funds & banks shut down, various lawsuits and/or contracts of transfer out of jurisdiction, then you'll see bag-holders writing op-eds in newspapers and blogs.
Tell me how the market telegraphed MF Global. That's right. Not a fucking word in advance.
Fortune cookie says: When TPTB deactivate every nuclear power plant you better have a raincoat.
They'll soon need to panic people into cash so there's something in the accounts when they get Cypressed...
Makes that old guy I know with pallets of physical $100 bill not look so crazy now...
Hhmmmm...
I'd rather have a leaky boat full of gold with just enough Benny Bucks to pay the bills...
He lives on a lake, I am sure he has gold. The paper is the buffer between the world and his real wealth. He's a sharp guy. Sold us much of our original farm land. He still has substantial property holdings.
"lives on a lake" ... all by his prosperous self, no doubt.
The point I start to worry is if they 'outlaw' gold/silver as money but you still have to pay property taxes in fiat. You'll be forced into a black market exchange situation which may/may not be worse than the .Gov avenue. I think a few states/counties were moving towards allowing payment of taxes in PM's but not nearly enough obviously. That guy sounds like he has a good jump on insulating himself. Problem then becomes all the parasites that get pushed into the wild who are looking for anything and everything to save themselves. This is probably going to get uglier before it gets better. Just hope I've prepared enough to get by.
already did that with the de-monetization of silver to farmers back in the day.
This time things will be different. We're far, far in advance of the move, many people getting gold, silver, tools, drugs, setting up ad-hoc networks & barter markets and distrust of government, expectation of theft before it's even started in earnest.
and guns, of course. Defenses of all sorts can be purchased or made yourself and they are.
And some smart people are leaving for good, just as some left nazi germany and never returned.
I'd rather have a leaky boat full of gold with just enough Benny Bucks to pay the bills...
The below article makes one wonder at this point,people say it cannot happen,he seems to think it's a win win,for the .goobs.
http://www.24hgold.com/english/news-gold-silver-don-t-dismiss-the-possibility-of-gold-confiscation.aspx?article=4402725598G10020&redirect=false&contributor=Jeff+Thomas&mk=1
Interesting but I think a lot more people will be sceptical of .Gov than in '33 and if they were smart enough to have gold to begin with, won't have it stashed where the Feds can find it. Then it becomes a matter of kicking in doors which will rapidly go south for .Gov. Guns often are paired with gold in my experience and the amounts in question will make it too costly to continue. If word got out there'd be a million holes in a million backyards overnight. The black markets that have existed for a hundred years in this country are still around today. They will only get bigger and go deeper.
It may be wise to remember that prohibition made the Mafia what it is today.
The black market is the free market.
Makes that old guy I know with pallets of physical $100 bill not look so crazy now...
Hhmmmm...
Law,
Maybe he won't look so smart on those stacks of old 100's, when the NEW 100's are unleashed, and everyone is told the old must be traded in or lose 100% of face value.Instead of the 50% haircut they get when they do switch.It's already printed, why are they not releasing it?.
We are playing a rigged game, and we have seen the rules change overnight, NOTHING would surprise me at this point, nothing.
As he noted the guy has more assets to play with. If the current fiat crashes you can always use it for toilet paper, bonus! And it will probably have at least some value in a black market situation as there will still be a huge amount of old fiat circulating.
He should keep it in 1's then...
It's like the suicide booths in Futurama:
press 1 for CORZINing your funds
press 2 for CYPRUSing your funds
press 3 for LEHMANing your funds
press 4 for incineration
press 5 for ZIMBABWE-fication of your funds & entire economy
I'm making money in the market right now
because I went long on the yen two weeks ago.
Nobody thinks I am smarter than they are, they think I'm crazy.
I'll take it any way I can get it.
Positively negative!
Steppenwolf comes to mind wihen thinking about Fed Chairman Bernanke and the amount of cocaine/monetary stimulus he has been pumping into the markets. Bernanke will be remembered as "The Pusher".
THE PUSHER
You know I've smoked a lot of grass
O' Lord, I've popped a lot of pills
But I never touched nothin'
That my spirit could kill
You know, I've seen a lot of people walkin' 'round
With tombstones in their eyes
But the pusher don't care
Ah, if you live or if you die
God damn, The Pusher
God damn, I say The Pusher
I said God damn, God damn The Pusher man
He who Panic first, panic best.
NAP*
*New American Proverb
OT (almost) W T F is going on with Gold this morning - sudden drop from 1410 to 1398 within a minute, followed by a rapid 6 min rise to 1417, then a drop to 1404 - 20 point rollercoaster in the space of 12 minutes.
Holy VIX, Batman - we're in deep shit now.
The Friday crush. Buy this afternoon.
No Exit.
-Sartre
“Remember you're not alone; you've no right to inflict the sight of your fear on me.”
And what about You ...
Aren't you afraid?
of what?
Reminds me of a comedian I heard once. He had a "No Fear" sticker on his car, until he saw the LA riots.
Turned out he was scared of fuckin lots of things.
[archived]
Courage is resistance to fear, mastery of fear--not absence of fear. Except a creature be part coward, it is not a compliment to say he is brave; it is merely a loose misapplication of the word. - mark twain
Liquidity or free cash flow worldwide is the name of the game. All CBs are doing is attempting to maintain it balanced. While the big guys make 100% profits from the middle class. While keeping the lower classes happy enough to preempt a revolution. Up to now they seem to be succeding. There's a lot more to go until salaries worldwide get equalized...
Since this market is FED driven are we expecting the FED to panic? Exactly who is going to panic and drive a market crash?
Exactly who is going to sqeeze as much shorts as possible and kill all bears in sight? Really no idea?
Accidents will happen when one leasts expects it.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uj4QrAcwVi0
"Look at all these people, walking around with no idea of what's about to happen ..."
How can the printing stop? War is coming and that takes money, deficit spending by Uncle Sam. Syrian troops are routing Al-Qaeda and their Sunni Juhadist allies, Hezbollah troops aided Assad's Army along with select Iranian special forces. The USA has grand plans in Asia to surround China. Russia is on the USA hit list after the Middle East is conquered.
Markets do reflect that 85 billion a month, what could crash markets is War, that 85 billion would transfer partly to war costs. The HFT computers will fucking explode, the semi conducters will meltdown as they try and trade into Geopolitical Risk and the Fed swithcing more into treasury debt for war funding.
Is their an end game, a plan? I think the elites are happy just to have made the largest financial gains in history at a time the fiscal system explded in 2008. Great gain in wealth, and great gain aginst wage earners. So they have a BIG WIN, under their belts, holding onto their gains now becomes a priority. The Mad Neo-Con war mongers in Washington could spoil the party by their war making across the globe. China is the wild card, what they do now matters big time.
If I was in the markets, which I am not, I would keep a weather eye on Global Geo-Political Risk. The war mongers are foaming at the mouth to finish the job in the Middle East. Oil shocks when Iran is leveled by a major air war, started by Israel. This is the biggest risk.
Does anyone see the Fed getting out of the game they are playing?
The end game is known as the "muddle-through" strategy. At least to the survivors.
There is another bearish indicator. The amounts of FB posts have plummeted, and those that are are of dogs and cats, no doubt living together....
There is another bearish indicator. The amounts of FB posts have plummeted, and those that are are of dogs and cats, no doubt living together....
When they found out that their entire lives were on display, and beiong recorded, they wised up(some did).
Twitter,FB,all these outlets are making cash of selling your personal info.And the .goobs are in the rooms.
What a scam; what a gdamn scam, bunch of criminals. i can barely stand to even look anymore. i feel like puking. thank god i got out years ago (with a loss, of course) . no banks, brokers, paper money, nothing for me .... just my 125 tubes of toothpaste (stockpiled) & whatever i can cram under my paid-off roof.
Be sure to get a brush or two to go with that. It might be a long haul. Sounds like you have enough to use for barter! Odd what we will miss when it's no longer on the store shelves.
The funny thing is, buying wholesale and stockpiling the products you actually need is the safest and depending on the price you get, most profitable investment you could make today. Assuming you don't live in a flood/tornado/earthquake zone. It's not about "the world will end!", it doesn't matter what happens, it's a smart move. Only once you reach the limit of stockpiling should you even consider "investing" in financial products.
"But, while the markets have short memories looking back, they do tend to discount future events 12-18 months ahead of time."
Like March 2000...or September 2008...
Got panic?
2013 is not going to be the next 2008. It's going to take two more years for something like that to hit again and the situation has changed so much that there is no telling what direction things will move in.
So long as Uncle Ben supplies me with 85 billion in junk to m eainline shoot into my monitary veins every month, I too have a warm , drooling , floating sensation of calm.
Sometimes I get paranoid, but just a call and a nice young doctor of economics comes and injects some more.
They're so ....good and ( yawn ) nice...
I'm ...
sleepy.
..now...
Before a Tsunami hits the water on the beach recedes very dramaticly just before the flood . The same happens just before hyperinflation. If you look at a chart of the value of the money in the Weimer Republic you can see a very large dip where it looked like they would be heading into deflation and then WHAM everything went to hell.