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Chart Of The Day: This Is What You 'Believe' If You Are Buying Stocks Now
Each and every day we are told by asset-gatherers everywhere that stocks are cheap, money-on-the-sidelines will 'greatly rotate', and now that any 'Taper' is good news as it signals the Fed 'believes'. However, it would appear that the market is either a 'hope-discounting mechanism' or a serial non-linear extrapolator; as, just for clarity, this is the 'hope' that equity bulls are buying currently about the next three years' earnings... what could possibly go wrong?
It seems the serial extrapolators are hard at work once again...
And as far as QE stoking inflation - still don't think it exists?
(h/t @AndrewYorks)
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I don't know how long will it take for the brainwashed north americans to understand that this is all PROPAGANDA.
I just came back from the gym and the main topic between three women closeby was.......what shows should they follow,....Mad Men or some other show I hadn't heard about.
Dear slaves: Stop watching TV
I spent all day in Brooklyn down by the river. Playgrounds everywhere. new construction going up. Yachts and speed boats going up and down the river. People were practically throwing money at each other. Outdoor restaurants packed.
I am starting to think I have completely fooled myself and in doing so am missing out on being shit on with money by a unicorn. If something ever gives absolutely no one will see it coming.
The absolute majority will never see anything coming though things are blatantly obvious. This is world history.
It has been like this, it is like this and it will be like this.
mass delusion by definition means the masses are not awake to the reality.
If you want to rule the world, sell hope, buy power.
Someone should write a book with the title "Extraordinary delusions and the madness of crowds "...
It's already been done, it's called the bible.
No doubt your view is based on an earnest study of it. /s
Bullshit, the book is called "Propaganda", by Edward Bernays:
http://www.whale.to/b/bernays.pdf
The first one was called the Torah
The most recent ones called the Communist Manifesto and Das Kapital
Never has the whole world been brainwashed into a fiat standard all at once though. BIG kaboom.
What I hate is that most people over 50 will suck Bernanke's balls to keep the paper game going. They're slaves to it.
good thing you said most
Its just all the clueless older folk I observe who are the Ponzi's cornerstone. They export suffering on the younger generations.
i downed you.....i bet you there are more clueless older folks here than the young and informed......55 here
so you need to define older......and i do have my own theory that people that are stupid and old were also young and stupid....
I see people in the early 60s at the gym in great shape.
I'm thinking 70+ would be considered ...old and I'm talking about the age only, nothing else
I am 74 and am much wiser than i was at 40, but i know many in my cohort that are stuck on stupid. For example people that still blame republicans for obamas blunders, they are beyond edification.
still stuck on the partisan paradigm tho...
Wow. Leap to conclusions much? Whether you like it or not, even somebody who doesn't buy into the "partisan paradigm" must admit his observation is true.
I am 63 and spend a lot of my energy trying to convince the Millennials to wake up and trample the roses.
It's not about age; it's about wisdom. YES we the baby boomers have messed it up-- yet it is the wise amongst us that can help the younger generation solve the problems. The bankers are of all ages so beware of the greedy young as well.
God Bless .
I'm giving a +1 just for the fact that you might be the first boomer that I have seen that admits to being the ones that fucked it all up. Well, boomers and the so-called "greatest generation". You know the one that stood by while FDR destroyed this country and then lined up en masse like good serfs to die for Empire.
Yes the wise amongst any genaration have the ability to solve the problems but whether or not they have the will; that is the question. Until the older generations realise that they are comdemning their kids to a shithole mess of a future amd the younger gens like mine (gen x) open their eyes and see how totally fucked we are then nothing will change.
Peace Be Upon You
What I wouldn't give if the present generation had a little of the political savvy and willingness to protest demonstrated by the boomers in the sixties. Obama has pulled shit Nixon only dreamed of, the boomers brought down Nixon, who is going to stop Obama?
I asked my 62 year-old neighbor the other day what she thought of the stock market, and she said, "Just as long as it keeps going up."
Now, she's wealthy (the millionaire next door), but for her to even remotely consider a market melt, much less even consider the nominal (unreal) nature of her investments or what to do about them, is too much to comtemplate. That would involve a profound shift in her fundamental assumptions about the world, and that ain't gonna happen, not no way, not no how. She is just one of millions who are stuck in the sand.
She doesn't seem stuck to me...
The lack of financial disasters is going on my nerves.
I am feeling stuck in the sand.
Those edumacated whipper snappers all voted for King Messiah, who is spying on them and sending them to the welfare rolls
Check your premise. I'd wager that many did not vote and will not vote in the future, God willing to turn a phrase. And good for them. I refuse to take part in such a charade or endorse the existance of an illegitimate government, it's criminal wars, theft, murder, and and pretty much everything else.
And as I wrote above the boomers and the WWIIers all elected FDR (fascist) LBJ (fascist) Nixon, Carter, Bush, Bush, shall I go on?
Never mind the endless parade of Congressional shitbags the so-called "wise elders" placed in power. Ted Kennedy, Robert "KKK" Byrd, Shcmuck Schumer, Billary Clinton, John Boehner, John McLAME, and on and on and on.
I'd also wager that the boomer crowd voted at a higher rate than pretty much anyone when it come for voting for the manchild Pharoah Barry.
those eps numbers are doable - they're really only a function of how much debt companies take on to buy back shares. which is only a function of QE which won't get tapered "that much" by 2015... doesn't mean I'm not puking on my shoes tho
I'm paying $3.65 a gallon. Doc is paying $4.25. I am starting to wonder if TPTB are starting to isolate the states that are willing to comply happily with being disarmed, frisked etc. and they are letting the states that tend to put up resistance rot.
I have an explanation
States cannot print money, only the Federal Gov can print money through the Fed.
Hence fresh money goes to the financial system. These states seem to be voting democrat all the time, though personally I see no difference mostly between dems and repubs.
States that have financial industry and states around these states make use of the freshly printed money.
The others are forced to cut government employement and raised taxes. Gas taxes are the easiest to increase.
Most of gasoline prices are taxes by different branches of governments.
States have subordinate political jurisdictions like counties, cities, sewer districts, school districts etc. While only the privately-owned Federal Reserve Corporation has the monopoly license to print money, money in effect can be created by credit expansion. This is done every time a school or utility district uses its bonding capacity to issue debt for capital projects. It is also done when tax credits are negotiated and so on.
While different in many ways both money printing and credit expansion have the effect of increasing the amount of money in circulation without increasing economic resources that money represents.
Fully agree.
There is no credit expansion now that everybody is over indebteded.
fonz, thats why i made the name Divided States of America. it will be coming when the americans wake up
Explain Texas then.
No income tax. Typical sales and gas tax. Moron for a governor. And yet without Texas the US would be in full on Depression free fall.
And by the way it's way more advanced than the NE states. Better roads, better tech, etc.
Hmmm, why is that?
Oil wells? Political pull in Washington? What makes the rest of the country poor, makes them rich?
"I am starting to wonder if TPTB are starting to isolate the states that are willing to comply happily with being disarmed, frisked etc. and they are letting the states that tend to put up resistance rot."
Dunno about that fonz, paid $3.29 today outside Dallas.
It's the other way around. The 0bama compliant states are eating the shit and liking it. The highest gas prices in the nation are Illinois, Hawaii, and Clownifornia.
I disagree. Here is Texas I paid $3.51 for premium yesterday. Thats cheap compared to the coast and part of the upper midwest.
Obama at heart is a coward. He only is able to achieve what he wants because of the kleptocrats in the congress, media and lobbying industries and the bullying of the governmental agencies.
Obama is a community organizer, in other words a ward heeler.
@ Fonz. I'm sure they were also partying hard during the "summer boom" of 1929. Black thursday came a few months later.
First off and most importantly, I was not in a van, but secretely wondered if someone would ask me if I was.
Harbanger, what I find crazy, I don't know about 1929, but they were partying in 2008, and before someone even bothered to tell them someone pissed in the punchbowl, someone spiked it again. They are benefiting from inflation over there. All I saw were dollar signs going up in smoke everytime some 50ft bohemoth speedboat shot by. They did not seem concerned. Which just tells me it's QE4eva as the masses go broke and the few just let the good times roll.
I can see it ending tomorrow and I can see it outlasting me. Who knows.
In a van?
Prefered vehicle of serial killers, lol.
in a van down by the river?
http://youtu.be/XaoM0FyLmGY
I totally agree Fonz. I am truly beginning to believe that I in fact maybe the crazy one. Everyone around me at work is buying investment properties and we earn only 50k! The Ferrari shop that I pass on the way to work has a sold sign on every single vehicle. The next door neigbours have replaced their roof, double glazed all their windows, extended, renovated.. the works. I think I may be the stupid one for not joining the party as its just me and my pile of tinned fish.
I don't talk about finance anymore as colleagues were starting to raise their eyebrows. They were just politely moving away with distant looks in the eyes. I don't know quite what to believe anymore. Just try to enjoy life, have fun with family and friends, be positive.
Only few want to talk about finance. It's a very killjoy activity.
However, if one doesn't follow it, that one will get cooked.
everyone wants to talk about it.
"How about that market eh!"
All day long
I hear that all the time from my boss and my boss's boss
I feel the same chubby when I talk to friends her in SF where everything "A...fucking... OK" but I also have a financial blog and I sure do have a lot of readers worlwide, most in the US.
How 'bout a link?
They will figure it all out when the bills come do and they cant afford ramen. Been there and done that, not going back.
Credit... So much fun till you use it all up and cant make the payments and lose it all for pennies on the real dollars you spent.
You're not crazy. Anyone buying investment properties earning only 50k is overleveraged, and crazy, and going to get screwed by the banks. Don't sell your tinned fish, they are going to buy you property when everyone else is broke. You can join the party after you prep. It took me 4 years to prep, now I'm having a grand ole time. I'm partying with the crickets. And there's no point in talking to anyone about finances or what's going on unless you know they are already awake. The next wave to wake up needs to have things affect them personally.
+1383
You aren't crazy as long as you're wondering about your beliefs.
But I am wondering the same so it could be that we're both crazy :-)
I've been getting the same blank stares from people, so I no longer discuss the economy and politics except with libertarian friends.
I find it quite informative when I talk to people about world events - tells me how mis/un-informed the majority are - unless the 'events' are on TEEVEE!
well, here in the rust belt, my son and I were throwing a tennis ball to each other in a public park this afternoon, and some dude (with kids!) accused us of stealing his tennis ball!!! the unicorns with money out the wazoo haven't made it to most of America yet, only the places with lots of financial services or govt largesse.
Correct
Yeah Fonz. I see it here too. I'm just outside Buffalo, I think I might have read a post from you that you spent some time here. Could be mistaken. Anyway, that's what brought me here. I was thinking. "My gosh, what did I miss?" Housing is way up and scarce (for anything really decent)I have rarely ever in my life seen any "fancy" cars, now it is an everyday occurance that I see a Bentleys, Ferrari's, etc. Lot's of construction going on. Everyone spending money. I have only been here at ZH a couple months and see most posters have been here for years, waiting to big reset, I hope it's not a trap. I remember back in '99 I had to go to SF (don't travel much) and visitied my buddy who had moved out there and was working for Pac-Bel as a lineman making about 25k/yr. He, his girlfriend (working an office job), and her 5 kids had just bought a new build just south of Napa for almost $400k. I couldn't understand the economics and called for a housing bubble then. It took 9 years to burst.
when the stock market crashed they inflated the housing bubble with low rates.
now we have a housing bubble, stock market bubble and rates are at 0%. when the next slight breeze blows it is going to set off an avalanche.
I just wonder if that breeze is coming
I wonder too. How else can it end?
I just wonder if that breeze is coming
Oh, it's coming alright.
It reminds me of the early 70s when I hithciked around the country, and sometimes I'd be out there in the middle of BFE (central Florida, Tennessee, or Arizona), and it would seemed like I would never get another ride...but then when I least expected it, BAM! We're movin' again...and that's the way it's going to be with this thing. Just stick to your knittin' and get done what you can, because it will be here.
@fonz "I just wonder if that breeze is coming"
There is an interesting thread in the comments Fonz - the 'when is it all going to happen' theme. Maybe, just maybe, it wont. I cant get myself to believe that because nothing has been fixed but I also am realizing that I am pissing away my time waiting.... waiting.... waiting. I think we are always caught at 'peak unawarness'. The price of freedom? .... eternal vigilance.
I wonder sometimes about being fooled too fonz, about being in denial that things really are ok.
I'm in the Dallas area. Everywhere I go, restauarants are packed. Everybody drives nice cars, my daughter who lives in Michigan noticed that too. When I first moved here she said "no offense Dad, but EVERYBODY has a nicer truck than you."
She also sees everyone with Coach bags (almost nonexistent around Detroit). The money, the malls, the entertainment places are all packed. What am I missing?
my only guess is it is a byproduct of zirp. look at savings rates. Down huge. why save at 0%?
How banks have any deposits is beyond me. why save for retirement when you can barely keep up with costs today. just shut your brain off. spend your paycheck on shit and let the good times roll. the minute you lose your job you are just erased from society.
"I woke up this morning and i got myself a beer. the future's uncertain and the end is always near. let it roll baby roll..."
"Keep your eyes on the road, your hands upon the wheel ..." ;-)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5XWQrt00_NM
(The Doors, 'Roadhouse Blues')
Texas has oil. Different story. Texas is the Canada of USA
But oil crash is coming.
I disagree. Sure oil demand will drop when the reset button gets pressed. But for now, oil is priced in dollars. Which won't be worth shinola soon. So oil, may be one of the few hedges that won't corrolate.
Roaring 10's, just like the roaring 20's...
So sorry to hear that you missed out on being shit upon.
+1. In an effort to not feel like an idiot, I go out to a small farm that I have (80 acres canola, 50 timothy alphalpha brome, 30 bush). And i work on machinery and what not, and am immediately reminded of how hard it is to make money providing for others. Its ironic. Farming, is one of the most physically demanding jobs. It requires some mechanical acumen, mathematical acumen, and a shitload of patience, yet at the end of the day - you are lucky, LUCKY to break even. A sucker for punishment? Perhaps. However, in a world where true value is distorted by the distortion of money, this is the only place that makes any sense to me any more. You're not alone in your observations. Sometimes I think I should sell it all and join the "party", cause it sure look like evberybody's having fun, and it sure looks easy. But, you know, nothing really good ever comes easy. At least, thats what they always taught you. In order to stay sane, I have to repeat this to myself, everday, everywhere, and always.
Soon you will be more valuable than 90% of the country. When the reset happens, farmers will keep the country from imploding completely. It will provide you a means to provide for your family and eventually a valuable good to those in your local community. I'm hopeful that this will make people return to our roots of hard work, humility and respect for neighbors and God. I firmly believe that many of the issues that exist in this country came about when this country went from agrarian oriented ( 1900, 80% of population rural, 20% urban, to 2000, 80% urban and 20% rurak). For this country to survive we needs to return to the agrarian values of previous generations
You're not at all crazy.
That farm will always have value. You can grow real stuff with free energy from the sun. Some day, all the dollar denominated paper stuff will be worthless except as fuel for fires.
Plus, the work is good for your soul.
keep on farming dude.
And do what, surf the net? Read the NY Times?
"Cause it's a bittersweet symphony, this life.
Your a slave to money than you die..."
The Verve
We all must fiddle while Rome burns because the authority has us handcuffed before you can even think of dissenting. They are now in our minds so we must dumb down our thought waves by watching Mad Men in order to throw the devices off unless you want to lower yourself to wearing the ole tin foil hat.
brainwashed? there is nothing to wash anymore.
Television Programming = they tell you visually the program.....your being programmed.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pv-GTna6VAY
Eddie Griffin - Turn Off Your Damn Televisions!!!No lie, my 11yo son just asked me if he could buy some stawks.
Let him. He may be another Jonathan Lebed. This is a perfect market for kids who know nothing.
Wait until their all in. Then open the trap door. Sharks are waiting below.
thus the avatar BULLS...
in the end qe will do more bad than good. the economie died 2008/2009
jobs are not coming back unless you bring production back from china, india,...
this is a debt fuelled house of cards. turn qe off and everything will collapse
the stock market has nothing to do with corp earnings. Ctrl P
Japan again blazing new paths. *popcorn
Stocks have never been cheaper. Even though every day is an all time high.
Sell your house and go for it.
"Don't tell me what to buy, just tell me when to sell" was someone's very wise words.
Let's see who the smart ones will be.
It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so.
- Mark Twain
Perhaps the axiom "live like there's no tomorrow" has some merit.
Edit: And then "I" got old.
It is hard when many of us see those around us spending money, buying shit they do not need and having a grand old time. Maybe if most of us here were dumb we would be doing the same thing. But we know those yachts, rental houses, new clothes and all the toys they are buying is transitory. This is NOT sustainable. It will end in tragedy. Sure there will be the 10% who will never give a shit because they have all they need aready and do not care about the other 90%. That is a lot of what we see.
And ask those in the fancy boats, packed restaurants and shiny new car how much of it is PAID FOR. You might be surprised. Actually I am sure many here already know the answer.
Thanks Bernank, you screwed us again.
To add to the madness of money spending, I live in Las Vegas and the amount of money flowing out here is absurd. It has always been like that, but it is getting close to the same level as 2005-2007. Close. Those years were insane to be here making tips. I'm a bartender on the strip and the money is good, hence one of the reasons why I left commie cali and moved here. And the hot money is flowing once again. Alot of young, hot people, remodels at the casino's, people pissing money away again, flipping homes, etc. This time around my wife and I have no credit card debt, 1 car is paid off, and both houses are refi'd at 3.25% and 3.75%. I'm all prepped out, the garden is all set outside, just want to travel some more around the world and look for the summer vacation/retirement home/farm.
J in Vegas
Have you ever thought they may be right and we may be wrong? It has to me. After all they are living it up while we are worrying. But when the system collapses we will all be in the shitter together. At least they will have some memories of the good life.
Were they wearing those sheer LULU yoga pants???
That's how we'll get to Dow 30,000!
AMericans have very, very short memories.
Well I am buying stocks now because I believe is that as long as they keep mining Bencoins, stocks will go up.
Make sure you do it with leverage. Zimbabwe's market was insane too. Lots of fortunes made there.
I do see your logic but with most everyone all in it seems any time could be the pull the rug moment.
First by boom, then by bust.
"States cannot print money, only the Federal Gov can print money through the Fed."
The federal government is borrowing money.
"And as far as QE stoking inflation - still don't think it exists?"
Inflation stokes deflation. The chart projection looks like a bubble.
100% of bubble burst and deflate.
A couple days back ZH posted a chart indicating the prior pullbacks and questioning if we felt lucky. The pattern looked very obvious. It works till it doesn't work. Until then, it is unlucky to not buy.