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Why Are Americans Driving Straight Into The Non-Recovery (And 800 On The S&P)?

Tyler Durden's picture




 

One look at Americans' driving habits represented by total vehicle miles travelled through the start of the Second Great Depression shows a simple chart: an uninterrupted diagonal line from the lower left to the upper right, which makes sense - a growing economy means more commuting, means more commerce, means more demand to get from point A to point B, means more miles driven, and so on.

Then something happened.

As the chart below shows, starting in December of 2007, the date which according to the NBER is the beginning of the most recent recession (which also according to the NBER ended in June 2009) the number of miles driven flatlined and has been virtually unchanged around 3 trillion miles every year for the past five!

This, despite the US economy (GDP) supposedly rebounding in 2009 and once again at new all time highs. Maybe someone besides us has a slight problem with the chart below showing the complete break between GDP and driving habits starting in 2003, or around the time the Federal Reserve went all in to mask the collapse of the dot com bubble, by first reflating the housing bubble, and then after 2008, the central bank bubble where every single central bank has literally gone all-in on to reflate the Mother Of All Bubbles (MOAB).

Why the record disconnect?

And why instead of growing alongside the economy, as it did in the past as this year-over-year chart of miles driven shows, at least until the end of 2007, which until that point never had a year over year decline, have the driving habits of the American people - always so eager to
drive the 2 minute trip to their neighborhood retail outlet - suddenly
collapsed.

The chart below zooms into the recent history and shows that for the past year the 6 month moving trendline has been a disturbing one showing a consistent decline in the miles driven even as the economy, courtesy of the Fed's ongoing market manipulation, is said to be "recovering."

* * *

But we have saved the best for last: the chart below shows the correlation between miles driven and the S&P. Is it just us, or did something very odd happen in the late 1990s? And if the latter, is it safe to say that Bernanke has been responsible for about 50% of the upside in the Stanligrad & Poorski 500?

Source: Moving 12-Month Total Vehicle Miles Traveled (M12MTVUSM227NFWA)

 

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Sun, 06/09/2013 - 13:07 | 3639247 Frastric
Frastric's picture

There's some mileage left in the S&P...

Sun, 06/09/2013 - 13:12 | 3639262 smlbizman
smlbizman's picture

....were did all the rubber go that wore off all those tires for all those miles?

Sun, 06/09/2013 - 14:06 | 3639377 cossack55
cossack55's picture

Corzined

Sun, 06/09/2013 - 15:33 | 3639549 negative rates
negative rates's picture

(MOAB)? She will have to think about that. But don't call me, i'll call you.

Sun, 06/09/2013 - 15:43 | 3639558 Zer0head
Zer0head's picture

The 29-year-old source behind the biggest intelligence leak in the NSA's history explains his motives

Sunday 9 June 2013 3.18 EDT

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/jun/09/edward-snowden-nsa-whistlebl...

Sun, 06/09/2013 - 16:35 | 3639757 Baldrick
Baldrick's picture

He seems like a nice ETHICAL kid and I truly hope he stays safe. Oh yeah, and the nsa can fuck off. What a waste of precious resources.

Sun, 06/09/2013 - 18:57 | 3640287 El Viejo
El Viejo's picture

Teleconferencing.

Sun, 06/09/2013 - 18:05 | 3640124 James
James's picture

I got your name from a friend of a friend
who said he used to work with you
Remember the all night creature from stereo ninety two
Yeah I said could you relate to our quarter track tape
You know the band performs in the nude
He said uh huh don't call us child we'll call you

Sun, 06/09/2013 - 14:07 | 3639379 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

The only purpose for the S&P anymore is to give idiots a false indication that the economy hasn't collapsed [which it HAS]...

~~~

The only issue anymore has to do with "bagholders"... Up until 2008, 'retail' could always be counted on to be bagholders'... But since then [especially since August 2010], an uncomfortable number of 1%'ers are set up to be bagholders [because it's all printed money that was given to them for free]...

So were in the 'Mexican Standoff' part of Reservoir Dogs... [& now it's cheesepope vs. cheesepope]... Have fun lads...

Sun, 06/09/2013 - 14:23 | 3639419 Stuck on Zero
Stuck on Zero's picture

All this goes to prove that it faster, cheaper, and much more economical to sit at a desk at the Fed and print money than to drive all over doing things.

 

Sun, 06/09/2013 - 21:54 | 3640862 Imminent Crucible
Imminent Crucible's picture

By golly, you're right!  And the corollary is, think how high the S&P would go, and how (paper) rich we'd all be if the Fed would just grant EVERYONE the right to counterfeit Ben Franklins.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j2AvU2cfXRk

Sun, 06/09/2013 - 14:44 | 3639462 SRSrocco
SRSrocco's picture

THE GREAT DIVERGENCE:  Ever since QE3, the FED and member banks have propped up the EQUITIES, TREASURY MARKET and REAL ESTATE, while at the same time destroying the price of gold and silver... thus killing investment demand.

However, the FED'S BUBBLE will pop and their will be a stampede into hard assets at some point in time.  I wrote about this in the link below:

Silver Investment Demand: The Ticking Time Bomb


http://srsroccoreport.com/silver-investment-demand-ticking-time-bomb/sil...


Sun, 06/09/2013 - 15:13 | 3639512 AllWorkedUp
AllWorkedUp's picture

" will be a stampede into hard assets at some point in time."

Hmmm, I suppose at some point that may or may not be true. I've been getting my ass kicked in this stuff for so long now I'm not so sure. The stampede would imply free and fair markets and also physical demand dictating price. The fucks in Comex will never, I repeat, NEVER, let that happen as long as they are setting prices.

Sun, 06/09/2013 - 14:52 | 3639478 ninja247
ninja247's picture

another great indicator for growth is diesel consumption. 

Sun, 06/09/2013 - 15:10 | 3639504 jerry_theking_lawler
jerry_theking_lawler's picture

isn't it obvious, Americans are either flying (rich) or riding the bus (poor)....pretty simple.

Sun, 06/09/2013 - 15:58 | 3639606 Skateboarder
Skateboarder's picture

Bus rides cost $2 one way man. Monthly passes are $70. Driving to work costs me $30/week - biking is free of charge so that's what I do. A 24oz Bud/Coors/etc also costs $2. If you only have $2 for the day, you got a choice to make. Not that I have the misfortune of making that choice at the moment, but I've had to in the past and probably will in the future.

Sun, 06/09/2013 - 15:59 | 3639522 Ham-bone
Ham-bone's picture

looking for correlation to economic details w/ the S&P (or bonds or or or) is a fools game.  The Fed broke these and now owns these "propaganda tools".  Do not look for "market" based pricing to return.

Sorry to say but from 2009 til now...the winners are the CB'ers and their believers.  PM's...not good.  Those looking for a collapse...not good.  Not happy or comfortable with this but from '09 til now...there is no argument against who the winners have been.  Doesn't mean they have won the war...but certainly many CB haven't lost a battles from '09 to '13. 

Sun, 06/09/2013 - 13:08 | 3639249 Racer
Racer's picture

Gald to see it written as it should be... the Second Great Depression, or arguably the Greater Depression

Sun, 06/09/2013 - 13:18 | 3639269 max2205
max2205's picture

That spy chart shows that ben has stabilized the market...not.  ben and greenspan ...useless except to panic out the sheep and line banker profits

Sun, 06/09/2013 - 13:12 | 3639255 AgLand
AgLand's picture

Why has driving flatlined?

Cheap Peak Oil now ruled the market. When prices rise to a certain level, driving drops off as people get priced out of discretionary trips.

Throw in the non-inflation that filters thru everything touched by oil and the avge US family is getting hosed.

If avge prices rise more expect demand to fall off more until incomes adjust accordingly. Or prices drop again.

Thank you Bennie and the Boys for screwing over the nation in favor of your banksters buddies.

Sun, 06/09/2013 - 13:11 | 3639261 q99x2
q99x2's picture

I used to drive a lot but haven't so much since I took up jogging about 3 years ago. Maybe that's it.

Sun, 06/09/2013 - 14:20 | 3639409 logicalman
logicalman's picture

Gave up my car in favour of a very nice mountain bike 3 years ago.

I'm now fit as the proverbial butcher's dog and have spent gas money on metal.

So far, so good.

Feel better both physically and mentally.

At 58 I can keep up with my 18 year old son over a couple of hours hard trail riding.

Hardly any downside at all, except for taking empties back to the beer store!

Sun, 06/09/2013 - 14:31 | 3639440 James_Cole
James_Cole's picture

I'm now fit as the proverbial butcher's dog and have spent gas money on metal.

So far, so good.

Feel better both physically and mentally.

That's what jogging and biking will do for you. Funny, a zillion diet programs out there that don't work when the answer is pretty simple..

Also, whenever I see these stats related to driving being on the downturn the only thing I can think is GREAT. 

Sun, 06/09/2013 - 15:55 | 3639595 TheMerryPrankster
TheMerryPrankster's picture

right, apparently you gave up thinking when you gave up driving. so you jog to the grocery store and jog home with 6 bags of groceries. So you jog to the hardware store and jog home with 6 sheets of plywood and 4 bags of cement?

I smell bullshit....

 

Sun, 06/09/2013 - 16:40 | 3639780 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

You're just looking for a fight where one doesn't exist.   It's obvious that it was discretionary driving that was being discussed.   Be reasonable.  

For this same reason, I bought a scooter for short trips, including the grocery store where a LOT of stuff will fit in the trunk case I installed on it. 

Now... for your Fight Club ass-whoopin'.  Step forward.

Sun, 06/09/2013 - 19:10 | 3640323 tango
tango's picture

I don't think he means "literally". Biking is perfect unless you live outside the city, don't have perfect weather, never buy grocies or garden supplies, have kids or go out at night.  Besides that, it's fine. I tried biking to work when I was a consultant but the extra time required (trip, parking, shower, etc) wasn't worth the few dollars I saved.  I go to Costco, Lowe's, financial meetins, famers co-op and out to eat.  The difference is that increasingly I am doing all these in one trip.  

Sun, 06/09/2013 - 13:16 | 3639265 Divine Wind
Divine Wind's picture

 

 

Interesting.

I wonder if the EMPLOYMENT bubble bursting might be a contributing factor?

When tens of millions of people lose their jobs, it sure as hell will have a difference in the aggregate number of miles driven.

Sun, 06/09/2013 - 13:45 | 3639329 tenpanhandle
tenpanhandle's picture

Half the population is paid to stay home and drink beer.

Sun, 06/09/2013 - 13:53 | 3639348 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

The Budweisers don't drive themselves to the liquor store though

Sun, 06/09/2013 - 14:12 | 3639387 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Budweiser is like that piss contraption that Kevin Costner had in the movie 'Waterworld'... In goes PISS... Out comes...........................Budweiser [which ~ can be recycled into more piss ~ sans the accompanying 'flag waving' bullshit]...

Sun, 06/09/2013 - 14:22 | 3639413 logicalman
logicalman's picture

Budweiser - Coors Light et al.....

Like making love in a canoe....

fucking close to water!

Sun, 06/09/2013 - 18:52 | 3640270 Milestones
Milestones's picture

Loved your post!!        Milestones

Sun, 06/09/2013 - 14:23 | 3639420 Agent P
Agent P's picture

I once sent some Budweiser to a medical lab for testing, the results came back that my horse had diabetes.

Sun, 06/09/2013 - 15:53 | 3639586 TheMerryPrankster
TheMerryPrankster's picture

It was the sugar content of the beer. I wouldn't use that lab again, there are markers they can use to detect whether the liquid they are working with is urine, and apparently they didn't bother to check.

sounds like a great lab to send a piss test for drugs to, just send them distilled water and you'll get an all clean....

Sun, 06/09/2013 - 19:43 | 3640468 Curt W
Curt W's picture

Down for being too dumb to see Agent was telling a joke.

Sun, 06/09/2013 - 13:18 | 3639270 B2u
B2u's picture

The best mileage gained is when going down.

Sun, 06/09/2013 - 13:19 | 3639271 Kreditanstalt
Kreditanstalt's picture

ZH, you don't have to endlessly show us why the S&P is "overvalued".  Of course it is - ACCORDING TO OLD THINKING.

Why DO stock indices have to conform to the real economy anymore?  NO RELATIONSHIP!

The stock "market" prices have NOTHING to do with underlying company performance. 

Say it again: stock "market" prices have NOTHING to do with underlying company performance.

For the leveraged big players this is a DESPERATE search for any yield at all, heedless of old-time definitions of risk.  Yield-seeking has now reduced players to gamblers and the markets to casinos.  These stocks do not stand for "companies": they are just counters to be placed on any momentum-providing number. 

This will go on precisely until there comes a better yield-providing alternative asset class...never mind risk - or fundamentals - or technicals - or "Hindenburgs" - or whatever...

Sun, 06/09/2013 - 13:21 | 3639279 U4 eee aaa
U4 eee aaa's picture

The Elites have walked out on us. The marriage is over. America is cuckolded. They have run off with their SECretary

Sun, 06/09/2013 - 13:43 | 3639293 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Banker to Croupier at Roulette table:  "Red 3 at 35:1 odds please."

Banker soft whisper into lapel microphone:  "Ben?  Magnet on Red 3.  What?  Yes, I know pensioners, savers, and retirees have all their chips on Black/Even.  Right, thanks, we'll have your money at the Cabana."

Sun, 06/09/2013 - 13:35 | 3639304 Urban Redneck
Urban Redneck's picture

Your position is clear - "This will go on precisely until

But of course, this time, it really is different... Because you're so much smarter (or some other daft bullshit)...

There is a vast chasm between "stock market prices have NOTHING to do with underlying company performance" and whether or not S&P is "overvalued" or more accurately at risk of a price correction.

Sun, 06/09/2013 - 14:22 | 3639406 Kreditanstalt
Kreditanstalt's picture

I didn't say I was in this market!  I'm out, except for precious metals miners...

But trying to pretend that this market will crash BECAUSE it is out of line with company fundamentals is deluding yourself.   It WILL crash, but ONLY when there is some other game available with better yield prospects...it's all about DIVIDENDS and MOMENTUM.  There are no "value investors" left.

Sun, 06/09/2013 - 15:21 | 3639515 Urban Redneck
Urban Redneck's picture

1) I never said you were in the market

2) I'm not pretending that the market will crash of because is it out of line with company fundamentals

More substinatively- your notion of better interest rate alternatives is inconsisent (and I'm being polite) with equity market history- beit the ancient history Pre-WW2 or modern history such as the 08-09 selloff or the flash crash.  If you think otherwise- point out the money flowing out of equities and into higher yielding debt products or derivatives during 08-09 or on May 6, 2010.  

Or to quote myself from a mere 12 hrs ago-

 

It's always "junk" bonds that cause the shit to hit the fan.  

In an economy where money is a product of credit creation, and rational price discovery of credit is suppressed - the inevitable outcome is irrational exuberance and then correction (credit collapse).

http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2013-06-08/day-big-fat-junk-bond-bu...

 

Sun, 06/09/2013 - 16:10 | 3639647 Kreditanstalt
Kreditanstalt's picture

"...into higher yielding debt products or derivatives..."

There AREN'T any right now, at least in the eyes of the momentum-chasing hot-money monkeys and Titanic-speed moving slow money dividend-seeking investment fundees who comprise the "market".    

Sun, 06/09/2013 - 16:40 | 3639777 Urban Redneck
Urban Redneck's picture

Any trip to 800 on the S&P that doesn't involve a slow grind over several years would take the form of a CRASH and it would NOT be caused by the sudden appearance of such a buying "opportunity" in higher yielding instruments.

You don't happen to live in the vicinity of Fukushima do you?  I could understand experience with the Nikkei (or radiation sickness) leading to such thinking, but otherwise I'm at a loss here, as I was asking for recent historical justification of or evidence to support your investment thesis.

Sun, 06/09/2013 - 20:44 | 3640667 Kreditanstalt
Kreditanstalt's picture

So you don't believe the "imminent crash" thesis?

Sun, 06/09/2013 - 15:44 | 3639562 TheMerryPrankster
TheMerryPrankster's picture

all investment is based on faith. The faith the central bank will continue to subsidize and inflate the markets with liquidity (captial) is the current element of faith that secures participation.

formerly it was the faith of investing in companies that were growing (markets) or growing (profits) - ie intel j&J etc.

the faith of fundamentals was distributed over more companies and more investors and was more stable but it still collapsed every now and again - 1929, 1987, etc

With the new collosus having been built on a single pillar of sand and a constant hurricane dancing about, it is only a matter of time until their paths meet.

The shame is so many are back door invested, there jobs depend on a functioning economy, when the stock market goes next time, it will drag down even more of the real economy.

Poverty increasing is the only real trend you can count on. Foodstamps, children in poverty, wages, disposable income all the harbingers point to an existing economy far different than that painted by the gov and the msm (the other arm of the gov)

the reality is the stock market is a fantasy waiting for the dreamers to awaken.

Gasoline is too expensive relative to wages ergo driving is reduced, how it is reduced is merely symptomatic, not causative. People don't ride bikes causing reduced gas consumption because of no reason at all, people don't work from home for no reason at all, and one very big reason is the price of gasoline.

When something cannot continue, it will not continue, including gasoline use and the rise of the stock markets.

 

Sun, 06/09/2013 - 14:49 | 3639472 James_Cole
James_Cole's picture

There is a vast chasm between "stock market prices have NOTHING to do with underlying company performance" and whether or not S&P is "overvalued" or more accurately at risk of a price correction.

Are you suggesting that stock prices reflect company performance? 

Q. What's the difference between Western Capital Markets and a ponzi scheme?

A. There isn't any. 

Sun, 06/09/2013 - 15:32 | 3639544 Urban Redneck
Urban Redneck's picture

Hell NO, I'm simply pointing point the naivety of suggesting the status quo can be maintained indefinitely (infinitely).

Even Chair Satan the elder admitted Irrational Exuberance (and hence a disconnect from underlying fundamentals) in 1996 when the NASDAQ still had 300% upside to go.  Market reflection of underlying corporate equity fundamentals has been dead a long time.

BTW - in case it wasn't obvious- CRTL-C/CTRL-P dictated the word choice of that sentence.

Sun, 06/09/2013 - 15:43 | 3639560 James_Cole
James_Cole's picture

There is a vast chasm between "stock market prices have NOTHING to do with underlying company performance" and whether or not S&P is "overvalued" or more accurately at risk of a price correction.

I misunderstood what you wrote here, pretty common to hear people say this as meaning that equity markets are a bit overbought and maybe in for a minor correction but generally reflect fundamentals. 

Absurd, but I read it ALL the time. Not to mention TV, I just had CNN money on (seeing if CNN would be covering the NSA leaker Snowden as breaking news) and they were discussing gold in a bubble, equity markets looking good etc. 

Sun, 06/09/2013 - 16:14 | 3639657 Kreditanstalt
Kreditanstalt's picture

Well put, James...anyone who even for a minute seriously believes or states that these markets represent " company fundamentals" is hopelessly naive, corrupt, on government money or selling something...

Sun, 06/09/2013 - 13:48 | 3639324 razorthin
razorthin's picture

I hope the impending 90% crash finds you flat-footed.

May the flatulence of a 1,000 Bernankes overtake you on that fateful morning.

Sun, 06/09/2013 - 13:51 | 3639340 Kayman
Kayman's picture

Kreditanstalt

In the short run CB's can print and inflate paper. In the long run, income from private sector employment and private businesses, support everything- dividends, coupons, and taxes.

All so-called "service" activities, government and private, depend on value-added in goods or private labor.

But I grant you that CB's can keep the illusion of wealth going for a hell of a long time.  Look at the previous article on Junk bond yields. What is your yield when you lose your capital ? Bernanke is book-learned and his toes don't touch the ground.

 

Sun, 06/09/2013 - 16:17 | 3639668 Kreditanstalt
Kreditanstalt's picture

I don't disagree!  Everyone knows it's held up by Fed money.  But somehow if you believe that this market is sustained by anything other than company fundamentals, and that this can go on for a long, long time irrespective of the weakness of those fundmentals, people see you as an apologist for the markets.  NOT!  

Sun, 06/09/2013 - 14:12 | 3639392 resurger
resurger's picture

ehm...

well said

 

Sun, 06/09/2013 - 15:19 | 3639525 Jim in MN
Jim in MN's picture

...because 2001 and 2007 were soooooo enjoyable.

Hint:  At least look at the chart in the post you're commenting on.....

Sun, 06/09/2013 - 13:20 | 3639273 U4 eee aaa
U4 eee aaa's picture

Wheels fell off

Sun, 06/09/2013 - 13:20 | 3639274 cherry picker
cherry picker's picture

Telecommuting is also a factor.  I have been working from my home for over 20 years and know more and more doing the same in differenct vocations.  I am a software designer/programmer, but customer service, sales, bill collectors and others are working from home.  That has to take a bite out of commuting downtown.

Sun, 06/09/2013 - 14:43 | 3639459 rosiescenario
rosiescenario's picture

Yes, for the last decade I do more from my home via the internet. The days I do commute in SV the traffic is right back to the boom times....it sucks, in other words. Lots of hybrids and other high mpg cars out there, too, plus the ride sharing lanes are heavily used.

 

All in all, gasoline consumption is not a good indicator. The Ceridian Index (diesel truck fuel consumed) is far better for taking the economy's temperature.

Sun, 06/09/2013 - 13:21 | 3639278 Yancey Ward
Yancey Ward's picture

No one drives to the Potemkin Economy to buy stuff.

Sun, 06/09/2013 - 13:23 | 3639281 Monedas
Monedas's picture

Nor does Comex have any basis in reality .... Silver nears $zerodollars .... Harvest Organ should be an interesting read today ....   and I'm the new fusion comic on the street .... a cross between Gary Larson for humans and Richard Pryor for animals ?  LOL   Humour is built into life .... you don't have to make it up !

Sun, 06/09/2013 - 15:16 | 3639519 AllWorkedUp
AllWorkedUp's picture

Monedas, gotta tell ya I love pretty much all your posts. You sound like a man pushed to the edge - just like me. Now, if we could just find a way to garner this negative energy and make those that need to pay, pay with their lives. There are so many.

Sun, 06/09/2013 - 13:24 | 3639282 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

1995 to Present = Progressively increasing computerized trading and FED liquidity.

Sun, 06/09/2013 - 13:26 | 3639285 screw face
screw face's picture

Digitally enhanced chart porn......no accounting ........for good accounting.

 

 

Bullish

Sun, 06/09/2013 - 13:28 | 3639289 the grateful un...
the grateful unemployed's picture

so what's the chart on air quality look like? should show corresponding improvement. additionally how about air miles travelled? they should be down, and down even more, as people are put off by TSA and the poor service airlines provide, they sometimes take to the highway. i know the tourism business is down, in SD, the mayor is holding back a very large grant to the tourism board. and they had three cruise liners in port at one time a few weeks ago. there's a trip you couldn't pay me to make. raw sewage backed up, food poisoning, and then the ship sinks. GILLIGAN!

Sun, 06/09/2013 - 13:29 | 3639292 DonutBoy
DonutBoy's picture

Where I used to drive to the store 2-3 times a week, I now order as much as possible off Amazon and do less "driving for shopping".  The changing nature of our transactions is at least marginally disconnecting GDP from miles driven.

Sun, 06/09/2013 - 13:53 | 3639346 GoldForCash
GoldForCash's picture

Takes millions of vehicles to move the chart in any direction. Not just a few buyers from Amazon, EBay or all sellers shipping by mail. And don't forget the trucks that deliver uses a lot more fuel than a car does.

Sun, 06/09/2013 - 13:29 | 3639294 toadold
toadold's picture

A number of people can no longer afford the expense of owning an automobile.  It is not just the cost of gas but also the parasite costs, insurance, mandated addons to the vehicle by the EPA and DOT, and yada, yada. People are going for bicycles, motor scooters, motorcycles, and "public" transportation.  I had a relative say, Aren't two wheelers dangerous?" my reply was "Have you been on the bus sytem around here lately?" That and having to make two transfers to trave 5 miles. 

Sun, 06/09/2013 - 13:59 | 3639363 Monedas
Monedas's picture

I routinely wash my engine air filter and cabin air filter in warm soapy water .... rinse .... then 30 seconds on the spin cycle in the washing machine .... pop 'em right back in !   They are designed to resist humidity, mold and intestinal gases !  I bicycle 4 blocks to the tortilleria for a kilo of day old tortillas .... $6 pesos ($ .50 USD) .... it takes me a week to eat 'em ?       Monedas     1929     Comedy Jihad Post Racial World Tour

Sun, 06/09/2013 - 13:38 | 3639310 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

WH: We don’t want to hear a peep about your thoughts or logic. Just keep eating your peas and shut the fuck up!

http://www.generationaldynamics.com/ww2010.htm

 

If any of you motherfuckers over at ZH mention a word about ‘economic contraction’. I’ll have your sorry ass wiretapped NSA style, along with a painful IRS audit. Do I make myself clear?

 

/sarc

Sun, 06/09/2013 - 14:09 | 3639375 Monedas
Monedas's picture

With my economics .... I can't get much traction with the conts !                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      /grief  

Sun, 06/09/2013 - 13:38 | 3639311 Arbysauce
Arbysauce's picture

What happened? The internet.

Sun, 06/09/2013 - 13:40 | 3639314 luna_man
luna_man's picture

 

 

We don't need no stinkin cars!  We got bikes...

 

you know, savin the environment

Sun, 06/09/2013 - 13:51 | 3639337 sangell
sangell's picture

I agree there are lots of factors, unemployment and shrinking incomes being prominent, but there is an ancillary factor associated with economic distress that really affects driving. Loss of Drivers License. As state and local governments squeeze their populations for more revenue via aggressive traffic and parking enforcement, stoplight cameras etc with increased fines a strange thing happens. People cannot pay those tickets and fines in a timely fashion and their drivers license is REVOKED. Of course they continue to drive as they really have no choice but then they are arrested for DWLS ( driving with license suspended) and now they are on the criminal justice system treadmill. Cops with license plate scanners easily detect the DWLS motorist and rearrest them. They become 'habitual' criminals and can even be sent to state prison for the predicate crime of being unable to pay some parking tickets or failing to come to a complete stop before making a right hand turn ( when the camera took the picture) at an redlight camera equipped intersection!

Sun, 06/09/2013 - 15:57 | 3639604 Almost Solvent
Almost Solvent's picture

The tobacco industry has a similar business model

Sun, 06/09/2013 - 13:50 | 3639338 Smegley Wanxalot
Smegley Wanxalot's picture

I dont think we are using real GDP here.  The miles driven are real, the GDP should be also. And let's discount it on REAL inflation, not that bullshit published by the govt.  Do that and I bet the charts will line up very well given the real economic stagnation that we all know is everywhere.

Sun, 06/09/2013 - 13:53 | 3639344 Rustysilver
Rustysilver's picture

Somewhere, someone is intercepting these numbers and changing them to make the administration look bad. /s

Sun, 06/09/2013 - 13:54 | 3639351 StarTedStackin'
StarTedStackin''s picture

Those really were some great years under Bush.....lower gas prices, lower budget deficits, lower unemployment, higher GDP etc etc etc......

 

 

Remember how the media USED to blame everything bad on President Bush?

 

 

 

What have they blamed on the Obowel Movement?

Sun, 06/09/2013 - 13:54 | 3639355 JJ McApe
JJ McApe's picture

ultimate tripple top :>

Sun, 06/09/2013 - 14:00 | 3639362 StarTedStackin'
StarTedStackin''s picture

I read the 6th chart as saying "S&P" 750....coming soon

Sun, 06/09/2013 - 13:55 | 3639357 Freedumb
Freedumb's picture

QE<5? 6? 7?>: All of GM's channel stuffed cars will be put on treadmills to stimulate the economy by increasing miles driven

Sun, 06/09/2013 - 13:57 | 3639359 DaveA
DaveA's picture

What happened?  We created a "recovery" by juicing up the stock market with free money and rebalancing the CPI to conceal the resulting inflation.  "Real GDP" is nominal GDP divided by CPI, so keeping the CPI low overstates "real growth".  In fact, Americans are spending more money to buy less food, less fuel, and less of everything else.

Sun, 06/09/2013 - 14:23 | 3639416 StarTedStackin'
StarTedStackin&#039;'s picture

Food is just about free, unless you live in da city.......

 

 

I just had a 2" dry aged delmonico, grass fed angus, half a dozen roasted new Yukon Gold potatoes, and a handful of asparagus that cost me little more than my sweat.

Sun, 06/09/2013 - 14:01 | 3639368 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

So the last chart shows clearly that the S&P is 100% overbought (overpriced).

Looks like the 666 of March 2009 was real valuation.

Sun, 06/09/2013 - 14:11 | 3639391 ekm
ekm's picture

Correct.

S&P at 1000 is the top supply\demand number

 

Above 1000 the government started to buy S&P, At 1500, Gov + Fed + primary dealers literally own the whole S&P

Sun, 06/09/2013 - 14:13 | 3639393 Curt W
Curt W's picture

Everybody needs to have a garage sale and sell all that crap they have and don't need.

 

Take the proceeds, fill up the car and go shopping for new crap you don't need.

REMEMBER,  If you still have money, you are not doing your part.

America, land of the shopper, home of the indebted

Sun, 06/09/2013 - 14:26 | 3639425 StarTedStackin'
StarTedStackin&#039;'s picture

Where do you shop that people use cash?

Sun, 06/09/2013 - 14:15 | 3639398 sangell
sangell's picture

There maybe an element of cultural and generational change taking place too. This occured to me as I kept reading about the latest mentally disturbed young male going on a shooting rampage. Take that 23 year old gunman in Santa Monica the other day. They say he had some AR-15 type rifle ( $1000 plus) a large handgun ( $500 to $1000) extra magazines @$15 or so each and 1300 rounds of ammunition so another $500-$1000. All together over $3000 in firepower but no automobile. Now when I was 23 and living in California having a car was rather more important to me than having lots of firepower. Guess times have changed though.

Sun, 06/09/2013 - 14:18 | 3639403 ekm
ekm's picture

The oil missing there is being simply...........financialized.

 

That's why QE was dead in January 2013, due to ongoing FINANCIALIZATION OF COMMODITIES.

Sun, 06/09/2013 - 14:26 | 3639426 Pretty Vacant
Pretty Vacant's picture

Gas prices increased / we adjusted our habits.  IOW, miles driven is also a function of rational behavior responding to rising transportation costs. 

Sun, 06/09/2013 - 14:28 | 3639428 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

Set all the scandal aside and there is plenty. How can you judge Obama's economic policy as anything but a total failure for the average American?

Sun, 06/09/2013 - 14:29 | 3639433 StarTedStackin'
StarTedStackin&#039;'s picture

Not true, as the new "average American" is getting a BIG handout and is doing just fine!

Sun, 06/09/2013 - 14:29 | 3639436 logicalman
logicalman's picture

How can you judge ANYTHING when EVERYTHING is rigged????

Sun, 06/09/2013 - 14:28 | 3639431 Black.Swan
Black.Swan's picture

Mileage also went offshore...

Sun, 06/09/2013 - 15:04 | 3639495 lotsoffun
lotsoffun's picture

blackswan - never thought of it, but of course.  even with the unemployed driving to walmart - (which gets closer and closer) - sure.  jobs left.

 

Sun, 06/09/2013 - 14:38 | 3639452 The Invisible Foot
The Invisible Foot's picture

Last chart is the best...

Sun, 06/09/2013 - 14:38 | 3639453 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

      That last chart reeks of(truth) central bank intervention. Put that in your 'pressure cooker', shills over at CNBS.

Sun, 06/09/2013 - 14:44 | 3639461 rosiescenario
rosiescenario's picture

The Ceridian Index is more useful than gasoline data...

Sun, 06/09/2013 - 14:50 | 3639473 kurt
kurt's picture

WHAT ABOUT THE PRICE PER GALLON? The oil companies are fine with all this because you're too stupid stop the PRICE FIXING. Governments don't care because they're on the payroll with increased taxes... it's a percentages thing.

Sun, 06/09/2013 - 15:01 | 3639486 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Search Results: equities | click sort by date

S&P Commodity Trends Indicator (CTI) – Old 2012 info, just follow the trends

Sun, 06/09/2013 - 15:02 | 3639490 WHATDIFFERENCED...
WHATDIFFERENCEDOESITMAKE's picture

 Mother Of All Bubbles...MOAB?  Sounds Biblical! 

Sun, 06/09/2013 - 15:03 | 3639491 Clever Name
Clever Name's picture

Peak distance from the burbs to the city finally reached.

Sun, 06/09/2013 - 15:04 | 3639496 WHATDIFFERENCED...
WHATDIFFERENCEDOESITMAKE's picture

That last chart reflects where reality split. 1995

Sun, 06/09/2013 - 15:24 | 3639533 Jim in MN
Jim in MN's picture

1995...when Rubin and the Pinstripe Democrats joined Baker and the Wall Street Republicans to finally say....'we are all insane and no rules will ever apply to us ever again, pinky swear yay us!!!'

 

Sun, 06/09/2013 - 15:24 | 3639534 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

1995? Do you mean the Federal Reserve charts that broke down the money laundering movements? NSA won’t like your opposition in exposing truth.

/LOL

Sun, 06/09/2013 - 15:23 | 3639529 put_peter
put_peter's picture

This is financial engineering. Prosperity for everyone. Regarding the indices there seems to be slight instability but this will be addressed in next releases.

Sun, 06/09/2013 - 15:25 | 3639531 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

The stock market doesn't need an economy anymore. Duh.

EDIT: And there's no such thing as peak stupid.

Sun, 06/09/2013 - 15:28 | 3639538 Hermel
Hermel's picture

As mentioned in another comment: the internet happened, which means less commuting, more teleconferences. Also, cheap airlines and high oil prices happened, making driving comparatively less attractive.

Sun, 06/09/2013 - 15:37 | 3639555 Mr. Saxby
Mr. Saxby's picture

Damn, that Miles Driven vs. SP chart clearly shows the market distortions started in 1995, just about the time that 401(k)s became the norm.

Sun, 06/09/2013 - 15:47 | 3639568 Winston Smith 2009
Winston Smith 2009's picture

Less mileage driven?  Three words - cost of gasoline.  It's finally gotten to the point where people are paying more attention to it and taking more efficient trip routes becasue of it or just not driving as much.

Sun, 06/09/2013 - 15:52 | 3639584 trebuchet
trebuchet's picture

oh come on, reasons for this

1. distributed workplaces/ working from home/internet  (especially from 2003)

2. freight/rail/shipping/couriering/bulk supply via pipeline networks

3. lower participation rates

4. higher average oil prices 

5. healthier life styles/more running/cycling (maybe not that one...)

Sun, 06/09/2013 - 16:14 | 3639659 venturen
venturen's picture

soon banker and government worker only highways....just the way they wanted!

Sun, 06/09/2013 - 16:18 | 3639673 omi
omi's picture

How on earth can you estimate this? Even mentioning this metric is obscene. 

Sun, 06/09/2013 - 16:36 | 3639709 Monedas
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Gneiss Gnigger .... Vienna's first mulatto automotive engineer !        Monedas      1929       Comedy Jihad Post Racial Parle Vous World Tours

Sun, 06/09/2013 - 16:27 | 3639712 darkpool2
darkpool2's picture

Its not that surprising to me. The 2008 crisis was pretty traumatic and caused some immediate behavioural changes. Whether its becuase we didnt deal with the issues that caused the crisis, and so many of us feel the problems still remain......but whatever, those behavioural changes havent reversed. Gas went up in real terms, unemployment soared, cars became more efficient.......electronic gadgets and the internet became both much better and more pervasive. I discovered i didnt need to drive to all those places. Email, texting, calling, all worked just as well. The people i dealt with got used to it as well, so we never resumed the face to face meetings. Now video conferencing is second nature. Two year old vehiicle, 33k kms.....i was doing 50k PER YEAR before i restructured. NO, mileage is not coming back !
Let Asia have the oil.

Sun, 06/09/2013 - 16:37 | 3639764 pcrs
pcrs's picture

They figured out a way to grow the economy without driving. No wait it's Obama's railification

Sun, 06/09/2013 - 16:39 | 3639773 Fix-ItSilly
Fix-ItSilly's picture

"miles driven" looks like a corrupted statistic not worthy of a decade+ artistic trendline.  There's ethanol, internet purchases, telecommuting, Chinese imports and now alternative energy cars (just beginning).  Who knows, maybe defense dept. war "miles" were also included.

Sun, 06/09/2013 - 18:01 | 3640108 Atticus Finch
Atticus Finch's picture

In a word, off-shoring.

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