Key Events And Market Issues In The Coming Week

Tyler Durden's picture

Currency markets are anticipating the conclusion of the BOJ meeting on Tuesday. No changes are expected to the current policy scheme and asset purchase targets, but it is likely that the committee will introduce measures to try to stem JGB volatility.  Based on their recent record, it is unlikely they will succeed. Later in the week, the focal point will shift to the US where the monthly Treasury statement on Wednesday and retail sales data on Thursday will shed more light on how automatic federal spending cuts are affecting the broader economy.

Monday 10th June

  • Japan Current Account Balance: GS : +¥118.5B, Previous +¥342.4B
  • Czech Republic Consumer Price Index (May): GS +1.5% yoy, Consensus +1.6%, Previous +1.7%
  • Also interesting: France Industrial Production, Sweden Industrial Production, Italy Industrial Production, Japan GDP revision

Tuesday 11th June

  • Japan MPC Meeting: GS expects no change to the current policy scheme and APP targets, and sees a strong likelihood the MPC will extend fund-supplying operations to stabilize JGB volatility
  • Hungary Consumer Price Index (May): GS +2.0% yoy, Consensus +1.9% yoy, Previous +1.7%
  • Russia Trade Balance (Apr): Consensus +$14.3B, Previous +$16.1B
  • Israel Trade Balance (May): Previous -$1264M
  • Turkey Current Account Balance (Apr): Previous -$5.4B
  • UK Industrial Production (Apr): GS -0.1% mom, Previous +0.7%
  • UK Manufacturing Production (Apr): GS -0.2% mom, Previous +1.1%
  • US NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (May): Consensus 91.5, Previous 92.1
  • US Wholesale Inventories (Apr): Consensus +0.2% mom, Previous +0.4%
  • Also interesting: Philippines Exports, Mexico Industrial Production, US JOLTS Job Openings

Wednesday 12th June

  • India Industrial Production (Apr): GS +4.0% yoy, Consensus +2.1%, Previous +2.5%
  • Germany Harmonised CPI (May): Flash +1.7% yoy
  • France Harmonised CPI (May): Previous +0.8% yoy
  • Spain Harmonised CPI (May): Flash 1.8% yoy
  • Italy Harmonised CPI (May): Flash 1.3% yoy
  • UK ILO Unemployment Rate (Apr): GS 7.8%, Previous 7.8%
  • UK Employment (Apr): GS -14K (3m/3m), Previous -43K
  • Euro Area Industrial Production (Apr): Previous +1.0% mom
  • US Monthly Treasury Statement (May): Consensus -$110.0B, Previous +$112.9bn

Thursday 13th June

  • Korea MPC: Policy rate expected to be left unchanged at 2.5%
  • Indonesia MPC: Expectations are for the policy rate to be left at 5.75%.
    Philippines MPC: Consensus expects the policy reverse repo rate to be left at 3.5% and policy repo rate at 5.5%.
  • Israel Current Account Balance (1Q): Previous: +$71M
  • US Retail Sales (May): GS +0.5% mom, Consensus +0.4%, Previous +0.1%
  • US Retail Sales ex-autos (May): GS +0.3% mom, Consensus +0.3%, Previous -0.2%
  • US Business Inventories (Apr): Consensus: +0.3% mom, Previous 0.0%
  • Also interesting: US initial jobless claims, US import price index

Friday 14th June

  • India Wholesale Price Index (May): GS +5.0% yoy, Consensus +4.8%, Previous +4.9%
  • Euro Area Harmonised CPI (May): GS +1.4% yoy, Flash 1.4%
  • US Producer Price Index (May): GS +0.1% mom, Consensus +0.1%, Previous -0.7%
  • US Core Producer Price Index (May): GS +0.07% mom, Consensus +0.1%, Previous +0.1%
  • US Current Account Balance (Q1): Consensus -$111.0B, Previous -$110.4B
  • US Industrial Production (May): GS flat, Consensus +0.2% mom, Previous -0.5%.
  • US Capacity Utilization (May): GS 77.8%, Consensus 77.8%, Previous 77.8%
  • US Consumer Sentiment (June): GS 83.0, Consensus 84.5, Previous 84.5

SocGen recaps the key issues for the week ahead:

The German Constitutional Court will hold a hearing on the ESM and the OMT

Markets will be keenly awaiting any news from the court’s hearing on the legality of these arrangements. The court has already given a preliminary ruling in September last year, which placed some conditions on Germany’s involvement. It imposed a cap on Germany’s contribution to the ESM, which cannot be raised without the approval of the German parliament.

The latest hearing will examine, amongst other things, the OMT programme and its potential impact on Germany via the ECB’s balance sheet.

Mr Draghi was asked at the ECB press conference whether the ECB’s legal documentation of the OMT was ready. He said that it would be published soon.

Bank of Japan will wait before taking further action

Since the Bank embarked on its bold policy to double the monetary base in two years, JGB yields have become much more volatile. The Bank is apparently considering trying to dampen this volatility by lending funds out to two years. However, in terms of further easing measures, we do not think it is ready to act. It will want to see the impact of the measures already taken before considering fresh action so we expect policy to be left unchanged at this week’s meeting.

European inflation readings to confirm pick-up in May

In many European countries, inflation was pushed down in April by the timing of Easter. This pointed to higher inflation in May. The flash estimate for Germany displayed such behaviour and we expect the French data to follow suit. The euro area flash estimate of 1.4% yoy for May after 1.2% in April should be confirmed.

Source: Goldman and SocGen

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doggis's picture




GetZeeGold's picture



So what day does the new scandal break this week?

stocktivity's picture

Monday- It's All Bullshit!

Tuesday - It's all Bullshit!

Weds, Thurs, Fri - ditto!   Until Benny stops printing, it's all Bullshit!

Monedas's picture

Czech this out .... the price for the traditional Carpathian "Rabbit and Carrot" stew .... are jumping around .... says Euro Agriculture Minister Dr. Emil Fud (pronounced food) !

slaughterer's picture

When do we get a POTUS sex or drug scandal?   

Monedas's picture

Obammy was "coke and hookers" during the missing 8 hours of his Benghazi response ?

Bearwagon's picture

Usually when some distraction from serious business is needed.

Monedas's picture

"I tried being serious .... all I could get was truck driving work !" .... Dean Martin

firstdivision's picture

The pre-market jam nat gas is going on.  You would think whomever keeps bying the prompt month in pre-market is tired of losing FRBIOU's by now.


FYI:  Don't forgot to spend some IOU's at 3:28pm to frontrun the 3:30 algo and the Tuesday algo.

falak pema's picture

An interesting oversight of the IMF involvement in this Greek debacle and in the Euro crisis in general is given here, as posted by ZH :

It just shows what a shambles and a political hoypolloy this Euro crisis handling has been. To summarise, as looked at thru the involvement of THREE key french bureaucrats in this deal, very interesting convoluted facet of this post mortem :

1° At initial stage Trichet as head of ECB did not want the IMF involved, and recommended that EU governments handle this on their own, as buying the Greek or Irish bonds was outside his direct mandate at ECB, and the banking crisis made direct purchaisng of bad sovereign bonds by "hocked" banks increase the systemic risk already prevalent in EU. Trichet wanted the governments to set up a safety net with direct funding by government bodies of rich countries to succor poor PIIG ones. This got shot down and he lost his job and IMF was called in fast, with the new ECB changing strategy under Draghi and LTRO.

2° At the same time DSK, as outside observer in IMF, said straight off when he was sollicited that Greek debt needed a HUGE write off much bigger than EU would accept as it bled their CORE Banks. Lagarde, then french finance minister opposed this reccomendation, as did Timmy, proxy spokesman for Ireland as head contributor to IMF funds, as it would have meant serious hemorrhage of national banks. But DSK was right all the time, if that debt write off had occured fast, with ECB monetary support as put in place ONE YEAR later by Draghi; when the Greek debt had doubled due to political shenanigans, ditherings cum huge HF speculation that bled the sovereigns further. Dissensions between EU/ECB (Trichet) and outsider IMF, now insider, (DSK) made Greece, Portugal and Ireland miss the boat. All due to EUro political shenanigans and market speculative vigilante pressure. Mad as bad 'cos the Euro ship was part of WS ship; this was more short term than a 2 min in- out gang bang rape.

3° WHen Draghi started pumping money into fast decaying PIIGS system and ECB went all in, the IMF approach created dissension as DSK still felt the banks should pay more in haircuts and EU politicians like Lagarde/Merkel/Rehn said Nein, again and again.

4° IN end 2011/2012, two years down the road, DSK having fallen and lo and behold Lagarde stepped in and started singing as IMF head the very opposite song she sang as french Fin Min! And things went from bad to worse in terms of debt restructuring of Greece.

4° Now in 2013, Lagarde of IMF tells the EU, aka old Lagarde of Fin Min days, "you phukked it up for us of IMF!"

How two faced and head up your ass can you get!! ?


dunce's picture

At their next meeting i would suggest a circle jerk, at least a good time will be had by all. At this point it is too late for any policy changes to save them from inexorable laws of economics

Monedas's picture

Yeah, a simulated, on line, in your Face Book circle jerk !