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S&P Upgrades US Outlook From Negative To Stable On "Receding Fiscal Risks"
In a confirmation that the S&P is starting to get worried about the drones surrounding the McGraw Hill building resulting from the ongoing litigation with Eric Holder's Department of Injustice, not to mention a reminder that US downgrades always happen after hours, while upgrades must hit before the market opens, Standard & Poors just upgraded the Standard & Poors 500 the US outlook from Negative to Stable. On what "receding fiscal risks" did the S&P raise its assessment of the US - the fact that the US is now at its debt limit, that there is no imminent resolution to the credit issue, or the 105% and rising debt/GDP - read on to find out. And of course, the countdown until the S&P wristslap settlement with the DOJ is announced begins now, as does the upgrade watch by Buffett's controlled Moody's of the US to AAAA++++.
The market's reaction is focused in the FX markets for now - but is fading...
From S&P:
United States of America 'AA+/A-1+' Ratings Affirmed; Outlook Revised To Stable On Receding Fiscal Risks
Overview
- Under our criteria, the credit strengths of the U.S. include its resilient economy, its monetary credibility, and the U.S. dollar's status as the world's key reserve currency.
- Similarly, in our view, the U.S.'s credit weaknesses, compared with higher rated sovereigns, include its fiscal performance, its debt burden, and the effectiveness of its fiscal policymaking.
- We are affirming our 'AA+/A-1+' sovereign credit ratings on the U.S.
- We are revising the rating outlook to stable to indicate our current view that the likelihood of a near-term downgrade of the rating is less than one in three.
Rating Action
On June 10, 2013, Standard & Poor's Ratings Services affirmed its 'AA+' long-term and 'A-1+' short-term unsolicited sovereign credit ratings on the United States of America. The outlook on the long-term rating is revised to stable from negative.
Rationale
Our sovereign credit ratings on the U.S. primarily reflect our view of the strengths of the U.S. economy and monetary system, as well as the U.S. dollar's status as the world's key reserve currency. The ratings also take into account the high level of U.S. external indebtedness; our view of the effectiveness, stability, and predictability of U.S. policymaking and political institutions; and the U.S. fiscal performance.
The U.S. has a high-income economy, with GDP per capita of more than $49,000 in 2012. We expect the trend rate of real per capita GDP growth to run slightly above 1%. Furthermore, we see the U.S. economy as highly diversified and market-oriented, with an adaptable and resilient economic structure, all of which contribute to strong sovereign credit quality.
We believe that the U.S. monetary authorities have both the strong ability and willingness to support sustainable economic growth and to attenuate major economic or financial shocks. As a result, we expect the U.S. dollar to retain its long-established position as the world's leading reserve currency (which contributes to the country's high external indebtedness). We believe the Federal Reserve System has strong control over dollar liquidity conditions given the free-floating U.S. exchange rate regime and as demonstrated by the Fed's timely and effective actions to lessen the impact of major shocks since the Great Recession of 2008/2009. Since 1991, the Fed has kept inflation (measured by CPI) in the 0%-5% range. In addition, the U.S. monetary transmission mechanism benefits from the unparalleled depth of the country's capital markets and the diversification of its financial system, in our opinion.
We view U.S. governmental institutions (including the administration and congress) and policymaking as generally strong, although the ability of elected officials to address the country's medium-term fiscal challenges has decreased in the past decade due to what we consider to be increased partisanship and fundamentally opposing views by the two main political parties on the optimal size of government. Views also differ on the preferred mix between expenditure and revenue measures in the quest to return the federal budget toward a more balanced position. Recent examples of impasses reached on fiscal policy include the failure of the 2010 National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform to obtain a qualified majority of its members in favor of its fiscal consolidation plan and the inability of the Joint Select Committee on Deficit Reduction to reach an agreement to specify specific fiscal measures to avoid indiscriminate cuts set down by the Budget Control Act of 2011 (BCA11).
That said, we see tentative improvements on two fronts. On the political side, Republicans and Democrats did reach a deal to smooth the year-end-2012 "fiscal cliff", and this deal did result in some fiscal tightening beyond that envisaged in BCA11, by allowing previous tax cuts to expire on high-income earners. The BCA11 also has engendered a fiscal adjustment, albeit in a blunt manner. Although we expect some political posturing to coincide with raising the government's debt ceiling, which now appears likely to occur near the Sept. 30 fiscal year-end, we assume with our outlook revision that the debate will not result in a sudden unplanned contraction in current spending--which could be disruptive--let alone debt service.
Aside from tax hikes and expenditure cuts, stronger-than-expected private-sector contributions to economic growth, combined with increased remittances to the government by the government-sponsored enterprises Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (reflecting some recovery in the housing market), have led the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), last month, to revise down its estimates for future government deficits. Combining CBO's projections with our own somewhat more cautious economic forecast and our expectations for the state-and-local sector, and adding non-deficit contributions to government borrowing requirements (such as student loans) leads us to expect the U.S. general government deficit plus non-deficit borrowing requirements to fall to about 6% of GDP this year (down from 7%, in 2012) and to just less than 4% in 2015. We now see net general government debt as a share of GDP staying broadly stable for the next few years at around 84%, which, if it occurs, would allow policymakers some additional time to take steps to address pent-up age-related spending pressures.
Outlook
The stable outlook indicates our appraisal that some of the downside risks to our 'AA+' rating on the U.S. have receded to the point that the likelihood that we will lower the rating in the near term is less than one in three. We do not see material risks to our favorable view of the flexibility and efficacy of U.S. monetary policy. We believe the U.S. economic performance will match or exceed its peers' in the coming years. We forecast that the external position of the U.S. on a flow basis will not deteriorate.
We believe that our current 'AA+' rating already factors in a lesser ability of U.S. elected officials to react swiftly and effectively to public finance pressures over the longer term in comparison with officials of some more highly rated sovereigns and we expect repeated divisive debates over raising the debt ceiling. We expect these debates, however, to conclude without provoking a sharp discontinuous cut in current expenditure or in debt service. We see some risks that the recent improved fiscal performance, due in part to cyclical and to one-off factors, could lead to complacency. A deliberate relaxation of fiscal policy without countervailing measures to address the nation's longer-term fiscal challenges could place renewed downward pressure on the rating.
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Wow, look at that. I'm sure the timing has nothing to do with getting this out as a headline to drown out another headline.
Yes we have a list of negative numbers a mile long and they will add up to a positive number in the end? Just need to grow our way out of it I guess.. LOL http://tinyurl.com/mem7o7x
Me thinks the big money is just keeping the wheels turning long enough to unload on the dumb money then BANG. Time to start shorting and leave the bag holders behind.
I'm encouraged by the consistent performance of the S&P 500. This indicates that the collective wisdom of investment professionals and money managers around the world sees continuous long term growth the US economy. Also, the consistently weak VIX indicates that "tail risks" are in fact not a risk at all but rather a fantasy of masochistic zerohedgers.
Consistent performance? LMFAO! The S&P has lost 50% of it's value twice in the last 12 years. Halarious. Come on MDB you can do better. Here let me help you; "I'm encouraged by the consistent performance of gold and it's stable purchasing power."
The fact that you are feeling encouraged frightens me. It indicates that the collective criminal energy of printer-machinists and professional rip-off artists continue to crush what little is left of the so called "middle-class" not only in America but worldwide. I may be a masochistic zerohedger, but shirley I'm not as delusional as you are ...
S&P is just another fucking puppet.
The market is leaking, they plug a hole.
Didn't S&P rate all of the DDD subprime crap as being AAA+
Summer intern in S&P: "So explain it once more"
Junior worker at S&P: "OK, so we have to rate all this shit every so often using checklists and excel, and the issuers, which are the companies, pay us. We need to write some stuff also for the reports, like, write the same as last time is ok. Some stuff has to get higher ratings than other stuff, its all relative. We never change ratings, the senior managers might shuffle it around a bit. Thats it then. You get it?"
Intern: "Ye, but most of these securities are high risk, like, nearly everything."
Junior: "Ye, but don't fuckin' mention that, we do not ever say that, just learn the letters and keep your head down, trust me, you'll have a great summer and the barbeques are awesome"
Intern: "Cool, barbeques"
Bear. It's not MASOCHISM .... when you're getting paid .... to troll and roil .... mean words mean things ..... that's why he calls himself MDB ?
I'm not getting paid. Or do you talk of MDB? I doubt that anyone would pay him for such a measly performance.
Describes your sox puppetry more than adequately of late .. not even any humor in your scribbles these days.
I think you've run outa steam,and a long vacation is needed.
I'm impressed by your consistent performance.
MDB, you must be an exponent of British irony. This is beyond ridiculously funny.
Also, the consistently weak VIX indicates that "tail risks" are in fact not a risk at all but rather a fantasy of masochistic zerohedgers.
ROFLMAO
Plus 1, MDB.
"The collective wisdom of investment professionals" in this context is definitely a masterpiece!
In other interesting upgrading news, S&P just raised Latvia rating to BBB+ on Expected Adoption of Euro.
Neg Numbers a mile long = a positive? Yes - negatives are multiplying
Upgrade? HaHaHa!!! Wait for it! KA-F'N-BOOM!!
They're using multiplication to make the number positive :p
Multiply two negatives and you get a positive....that's the strategy.
And what 'good economic reads' are they talking about? We just got the worst bunch of data dumps ever, except for the gun to the head celebratory nature of the 'jobs report' which was garbage.
Apparently the world will allow the Fed to buy 100% of all sovereign debt issuance...
Yeah, this should turn out well < sarc off >
They have just upgraded the economy to doubleplusgood.
pods
I'm seeing 2.21% on the ten year. That thing hit's 2.25% and I think we run straight to 2.40% That should take the 30yr over 4% Laws?
They are going to have to put the brakes on this market hard. soon.
2.4% = hard default or WWIII. This is the corner that the Fed has painted us into.
Isn't this crazy? No more wiggle room.
One analyst believes they can no longer keep these yields or interest rates down. Also, home loans continue to tick upwards and this could start a trend over the summer and fall months. Higher interest rates will slow down the economy requiring another large QE Injection.
I forget the numbers but each 1% rise in interest rates is pretty dramatic due to all the bank, govt, consumer and state debt.
Anyway we'll know in a few months if rates are really ticking upwards.
House sales have really slowed in my area with the rise in mortgage rates. Everyone is (rigtfully) scared sh*tless as rates go up the house prices will fall more and they lose more in an already weak market.
2.40% is first stopping point, not for long...2.75%-2.90% is target area, unless Fed TAPERS or STOPS. Yes TAPERS or STOPS. It's the only way to gets rates back down, IMO.
War or an unprecedented 'terrorist' attack on the US. Or as you mentioned yesterday, blaming cyber-terrorism for the gov't shutting citizen's access off to their own money or EBT cards. They have to keep US citizens living in fear. The bigger the fear, the better for the gov't and private banks like the Fed.
They may be able to buy all the debt but TLT is at 52 week lows and not feeling like stopping its plunge. Target looks to be about 95. Of course they can strengthen treasuries by letting the precious S&P500 plunge. Hard choices. I bet they try to save the treasuries.
The problem is that the Fed is buying all of the western sovereign debt (via dollar swaps and the ECB), not just U.S., hard choices indeed. Treasuries fund the military and NATO, they have to try and save them. The Fed is a banking cartel, they are dead without the military, and so is the dollar.
The fiscal risks! They're viewed as receeding by the criminal banksters! YAYYY!!!
Must....Buy.....Moar....
i dont need to read this garbage. the US has to print its debt. if any rating agency had any integrity, US woould be rated junk.
Bullshit! Triple bullshit! How long until Egan Jones will be allowed to rate USA again? Yeah, thougt so ...
...just as the was starting to rollover, nice
LOL! Made my day!
Fee-nominal
It's amazing how quickly somebody changes their mind when there's a gun to their head. Stalin would be so proud!
Guns are not needed in our kinder and gentler world. Remember that every email the execs sent to any hooker or drug dealer, every visit to a kiddieporn NABLA site is recorded. All prosecutions and expose will be defered as long as they play ball
S&P today upgraded Shit to poop explaining that shit sounds bad and poop sounds kind of funny.
...good chuckle. You slay me fonz, quick, to the other side of the boat!
Soon it will be upgraded to "valuable fertilizer" ....
"We view U.S. governmental institutions (including the administration and congress) and policymaking as generally strong" which is why we are crying uncle and sprinkling this "valuable fertilizer" with holy water.
Hundreds of gubmint kleptocrats were aware weeks before a positive Medicare funding decision was released, causing a pre-announcement spike in health care stocks. Just the tip of a very large iceberg !
http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/hundreds-in-government-had-advance-word-of-medicare-action-at-heart-of-trading-spike-probe/2013/06/09/044944d0-cec7-11e2-8845-d970ccb04497_story.html?hpid=z3
May the farce be with you...
BUY 'MURKA!
remember that a crisis cant be a crisis when everybody is bracing for one................a crisis comes at the peak hour of exuberance........of delusion.........of complete unpreparedness............this only confirms we are getting closer and closer...............but not there yet.........................
What could go wrong? With elevated US equity margin debt and a JGB market with yields less than the targeted inflation rate, there seem to be at least a couple of things unstable. But with the Yen falling, last weeks unwinding of the carry trade will probably rewind over the short term.
In the old days maybe that's true, but these days only more people are knowing it's all bullshit and are more prepared than ever so if they're waiting to catch everyone by surprise they'll be having to wait a very long time.
Sure it's all BS, but the bagholders have to grab the bag.
No I think it's REALLY close. The paradox of moar Q/E is the extraction of liquidity from the markets.
http://www.ifre.com/repo-flip-indicates-collateral-risks/21089984.article
MOAR....let's get it to POSITIVE with MOAR.
amazing. I guess owing the world 5 or 6 bucks is not important.
I'm glad to see everything is fine on Wall Street 'cause it ain't elsewhere:
10 States That Are Maxxed Out on Credit Cardshttp://finance.yahoo.com/news/10-states-maxxed-credit-cards-110011687.html
BTW, what percentage of our GDP is consumer spending?
Wow! So everything has been fixed right? They magically balanced all of the budgets overnight and our debt magically got much lower somehow? Oh and our economy has improved so much that they took away the food stamps and we actually started creating jobs? Good times I tell ya. Good times.
Outlook is GUD!
Don't forget the other noteworthy novelty that didn't exist before - the key role of USD as the international reserve currency.
Never mind that it's actually getting weaker by the month.
Total bullshit!
laught out fucking loud.
so true, as whenever there is a downgrade, its not only always after hours, but its after hours on a friday, so there can be no reaction the following day.
whenever there is a upgrade, its always before the markets open.
what a fucking farce. must make sure c, bac, jpm, gs, aapl, goog, amzn, fb, all finish in the green today, so what better way to ensure that by some b.s fucking news.
Also, whenever there has been a downgrade, it's followed by a blast off in stocks and everything else!
Stay tuned for rebuttle article following your local weather with Jim Cantore on the 8's
Well shoot. If everything is hunky dory then that whole QE thingy can be stopped right now.
Sure seems that would be the case.
BWA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA!
rofl! .... CONVINCING STUFF ....!!
I was at the doctors this morning, he reckons my state of mental wellbeing has risen from 'Stable', to 'Seriously Unstable' thanks to the constant bollocks and outright fucking lies from these fucking lunatics on a near daily basis.
Do these fucking idiots think we believe this shit?
Arrest Jon Corzine you fucking wankers, then come back with more bullshit crap.
Fuckers.
Arrest the Honorable Jon Corzine was downgraded in the footnote
They are so scared Sh!tless now that they are in your face blatant in their attempts to keep the plates spinning
I guess they didn't see this before upgrading....
Looks like they found the Oreo's Kenyan Birth Certificate. Check the documents out first before calling them fake.
http://www.thepowerhour.com/news4/obama_kenyan_birth_certificate.htm
BARACK OBAMA'S KENYAN BIRTH CERTIFICATE!
This is part of what Obama has spent almost $2M to hide... you decide...
See website for photos.
"I asked a British history buff I know if he could find out who the
colonial registrar was for Mombasa in 1961.
He called me up a few minutes ago and said "Sir Edward F. Lavender"
Source(s): " Kenya Dominion Record 4667 Australian library."
Posted by Alan Peters at 11:56 PM
Testimony from a Mombasa science teacher and the Mombasa Registrar of births that Obama's birth certificate from Mombasa is genuine. A copy of President Obama's birth certificate that Lucas Smith obtained through the help of a Kenyan Colonel who got it recently directly from the Coast General Hospital in Mombasa, Kenya .
"On August 4, 1961 Obama's mother, father and grandmother were attending a Muslim festival in Mombassa, Kenya. Mother had been refused entry to airplanes due to her 9 month pregnancy. It was a hot August day at the festival so the Obama's went to the beach to cool off. While swimming in the ocean his mother experienced labor pains so was rushed to the Coast Provincial General Hospital, Mombasa, Kenya where Obama was born a few hours later at 7:21 pm on August 4, 1961. Four days later his mother flew to Hawaii and registered his birth in Honolulu as a certificate of live birth which omitted the place and hospital of birth."
The local Imam in Mombasa named Barack with his middle name Hussein so his official name on his certificate of live birth below is Barack Hussein Obama, II.
President Obama's Certificate of Live Birth, FORGED by one of his workers named John.
Barack Hussein Obama is the first U.S. president born in Africa at the Coast Provincial Hospital, Mombasa, Kenya. The Hawaii Certificate of Live Birth below is a forgery and of no value.
And not only that one of the birth certificates has a baby foot print on it............. Take off your shoes and socks Oreo and let use see them footsies if it is a fake..........
http://www.peoplefindernow.com/infanprts.htm
..."The Value of Footprinting Print experts agree that every individual's prints contain friction ridge minutiae, i.e., ridge detail, that are unique to that person. Even the footprints and fingerprints of identical twins are different. Furthermore, friction ridge minutiae remain naturally unchanged throughout a person's life. Because of this consistency, FBI print experts have identified the adult victims of such disasters as fires and airplane crashes by using the footprints of the individuals taken in infancy. A common misconception exists today that DNA genotyping represents a means of identification superior to fingerprinting or footprinting. In reality, just the opposite is true. A legible footprint with clear friction ridge minutiae provides the most certain form of identification available and, further, may be of more immediate value to law enforcement officials for the following reasons: -- Fingerprints and footprints of identical twins are different, but DNA genotyping technology presently cannot distinguish between them -- Fingerprints and footprints can be compared and a positive identification made by a print expert, usually within a relatively short period of time; DNA genotyping and analysis can take up to 3 months to complete -- Fingerprints and footprints can be taken at negligible expense, while DNA genotyping and analysis can cost several thousand dollars. In short, although DNA genotyping represents an excellent technology for determining probable identity, it may not satisfy the immediate investigative needs of law enforcement officers due to its cost and the time required to complete testing and analysis"...
"The republic can survive a Barack Obama. It is less likely to survive a multitude of fools such as those who made him their president."
-unknown
Michael? You're back??
zzzzzzzzzzz
so it's official--credit ratings are govt. propaganda
Oh, I see. Fannie and Freddie being the bagmen for the banking cartel, reap the money and homes from illegal foreclosures and send that money upstream to....the FED. THAT is fueling our economy? FTS...
Our country is one big lie...especially the FREE market.
Can we get a definition from S&P as to what constitutes a "US Outlook"?
(just want to make sure this really is a joke)
Meaning money printing still working?
record families on welfare, high unemployment and a mountian of obama phones ready for distribution! yep we are in a full blown recovery........
I wonder if S&P has a corporate contract with Verizon....?
Could be that many on Wall Street today are looking at their phones and swallowing DEEP as they consider all of their conversations related to, errr, price discovery and market making.
All of those many thousands of calls stored away just in case....
I would not be surprised if we start to see a wave of resignations in the world of finance and investments during the coming weeks.
Blue Horseshoe loves Au and Ag.
don't worry, be happy the S&P is taking a conservative view of CBO estimates.
just as well really
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-02-05/cbo-releases-latest-budget-forecast-hilarity-ensues
Hahahahaha! Sure!
I guess they must be really desperate to dump to the greatest fools....I think they're all broke though.
S&P , The Company with Poor Standards.
Can't think of anything else to type :-(
Best comment so far.
Here's what receding fiscal risk looks like on a chart
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/BASE
Apparently it's been receding non-stop since around 2008.
S&P "believes".....
Must......believe......MOAR!....must....pass off.....pump.....
In other news...
The 830am beatdown of gold has commenced, right on schedule.
PTBs stirring the cauldrons good today, eh?!
Fuckers! Choke on your worthless paper!
If they didn't beat down gold and gold took off, it would be all game over for the FED and the current fiat system. They will do ANYTHING to delegitimize any and all alternatives to the dollar! I guess you really can’t blame them for trying to preserve the status quo.
Awww.
Booz Allen Hamilton shares are down 4.5% today.
http://quotes.morningstar.com/stock/bah/s?t=XNYS%3aBAH
Meanwhile the national debt has grown to 16.8 trillion up from 14 trillion the FED's balance sheet has gone up exponentialy and people on food stamps now sits at 48 million.
The report is pretty embarassing, isn't it.
But none of it really matters. The central banks will eventually monetize all sovereign debt, there is no "free market" for sovereign debt so ratings don't matter and it can never be sold off.
All debt ends up as sovereign debt, and all sovereign debt is monetized, remember that.
USD daily on Friday showed a candle reversal - for what that's worth.
http://bullandbearmash.com/chart/dollar-daily-undergoes-wild-swings-closes/
It's remarkable to see the markets hold on while the USD climbs - it's almost worth getting out the Orville Redenbacher.
They changed POMO this week - added in Monday.
OT: s/ Finally, a Gentile named to a top economic position(Chief White House Economist) on Team Oblahma. Must be one of Daddy O's raghead friends. /s
Obama to name Furman as chief economistFor more shits and giggles look up Furman's Mommy's(Gail Furman) activities...and who he says influenced him.
Hate to rain on your parade but Furman is not a gentile.
"s/ ... /s" was supposed to indicate sarcasm.
;p
Sorry...missed that.
Did S&P wrap their upgrade announcement in sarcasm tags?
Well those cock suckers lol.
I'd like to know what cooked up numbers they are looking at to come to that conclusion.