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JPY Surges Most In 3 Years; "Buy-The-Dip-Mentality" Gone
After a couple of days of exuberant dead-cat-bouncing in Japan (and therefore implicitly US equities), the reality that credit markets had been hinting at is starting to be realized once again. A nasty gap-down open in US equities saw BTFDers come piling back in, aided by pressure on bonds and a final liftathon into the EU close in AUDJPY. That was the best of the day and JPY's biggest surge in over 3 years (~3%!) dissolved any equity-dip-buying power as stocks jerked up and down around VWAP for the rest of the day. Credit markets opened even more gap wider than stocks weaker as chatter was that bondholders were hedging exposures (as opposed to reducing exposure - hoping that redemptions don't come). That gap was very rapidly filled and aided the parabolic ramp into the EU close. Then, credit was offered, stocks followed as VIX and Treasuries were bid the rest of the day. A very chaotic day in almost every asset class (with PMs actually relatively stable) as US markets begin to mimic Japanese volatility. The Nikkei is now 800 points off the dead-cat-bounce highs from 2 days ago.
All that really matters is this...
But we should look around at a few other markets too... since volatility exploded everywhere...
Stocks gapped down at the US open, but once the Dow hit unch - the sellers resumed and it was down all the way... a change in regime...
Credit gapped wider as real money hedged their over-exposure (preferring that than to sell - hoping that redemption do not occur)... but selling pressure remained even after the technical gap fill...
FX markets were extremely volatile...
Commodities were relatively calm though - until Taksim Square which snapped TWI higher...
Bonds were bid and Stocks offered as the Turkey video streams hit...notice that when Europe opened US assets (Bonds and Stocks were sold)...
Volume was well above average after yesterday's dismal trading. Credit indices were all above ther averages with IG's range large again and ITRX EUR volume extremely heavy compared to normal...
Today's on-again-off-again cross-asset-class correlations are nowhere more eveident than in Capital Context's CONTEXT model (proxy for risk-assets) which was extremely tightly coupled with US equities into the European open, then decoupled until the European close and then was very tightly correlated nto the US close... (still think the machines aren't in charge?)... the disclocation appears mainly driven by the selling of both US equities and US bonds...
Tuesday Capital LLC was just Stevie Cohened. Reopening next week as a family office...
Charts: Bloomberg and Capital Context
Bonus Chart: Nikkei is now over 750 points off Monday's highs and Goldman's stop is getting close...
Bonus Bonus Chart: The Short-Interest ammunition to take us higher from here is gone... unlike every dip since the 2009 lows... (NYSE just reported a 90 million share drop in market-wide short-interest).
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The day is approaching when BTFD is somewhat similar to the "Charge of the Light Brigage."
BTFD
Just watch the bifurcations and the phase diagrams of velocity versus accelerations, the system is becoming more and more unstable...
JPM just saw another 218,000 ounces of eligible gold removed from the vault - things are getting interesting...
LostPolarBear... yup... I just posted this at my site. JP MORGAN only has a little more than 4 metric tonnes left in its customer inventory:
JP MORGAN’s CUSTOMER GOLD INVENTORY FALLS 61% IN ONE DAY
http://srsroccoreport.com/jp-morgans-customer-gold-inventory-falls-61/jp...
When the bifurcations reach the physical side of commodities and PMs, they will trigger revolutions and wars, siince people will get desperate and will not take it lightly that the other side can not deliver.
Sadly, chaos theory tells us that it is inevitable at this point, we have crossed the threshold, the only question chaos tells us we can not answer is when?
Until next time,
Engineer
Note: the same bifurcations that you see in the paper market will reach the physical market, no way to avoid it. I am really sad that our (our= physicists and control engineers with expertize in chaos control systems) knowledge of physical systems is not being used.
When the bifurcations reach the physical side of commodities and PMs, they will trigger revolutions and wars, siince people will get desperate and will not take it lightly that the other side can not deliver.
Sadly, chaos theory tells us that it is inevitable at this point, we have crossed the threshold, the only question chaos tells us we can not answer is when?
Until next time,
Engineer
Note: the same bifurcations that you see in the paper market will reach the physical market, no way to avoid it. I am really sad that our (our= physicists and control engineers with expertize in chaos control systems) knowledge of physical systems is not being used.
It all came out of eligible -- it's actually not much lower than it was two montsh ago (136K v. 168K) so no more of a crisis than then.
Registered, on the other hand -- no move today, but it's down 69% v. two months ago. A whole bunch of people don't want JPM storing their silver for them.
......as if they will really tell us whats going on with their vault............
I lost $132 today, but am convinced it was my best trading performance ever.
The question for tomorrow: do I trade again, or volunteer for a new experimental root canal process at the local dental college, to be performed by 1st year students? How does one decide between two equally compelling choices ?
I would suggest the root canal with the yogic pain control option.
Be sure to ask for the au or ag filling.
As a ZH reader, of course I'll be asking for one of those fine metals (but Gartman says I should pay for it in yen, and he's an expert).
Don't scrimp on the NoVoCaINe though.
My wife, my three kids and I used to live for 20 days on 132 usd...
My suggestion is that for 132 usd you can get some really nice massage and save you the pain of the root canal, don't even consider the trading, unless you feel suicidal. Meaning, you can win, but will it be worth your stress, your isolation of everything else to be on top of what is going on, NO, and I know first hand what you are talking about. I still remember the days, when I flipped and doubled and doubled and flipped again and doubled again to get out with a few bucks. Not worth it! I decided to go back to College, and to be productive for Society.
Until next time,
Engineer
$132 of what?
I have to believe that if the GOJ wants its companies to export more, then they will lower the Yen to do just that.
Long sunken treasure hunters
We're done with the yen's depreciation/Nikkei's appreciation.
http://dareconomics.wordpress.com/2013/06/11/around-the-globe-06-11-2013/
The Wonderful Thing About Tiggers (Sing Along Songs)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dJFyz73MRcg (1:24)
wait, why was it surging again ???? oh yeah the growth ... what a joke !
The only growth at all is an agressive cancerous tumor known as the Fed.
Speaking of the all seeing eye of Sauron, the company that designs PRISM?...it's called Palantir(!!!!)....it's in our papers (NZ) this am
PRISM and Prism are two separate entities.
Not that Palantir hasn't been linked to dodgy stuff [HB Gary + Lulsec hack for details], and clearly works for the US government / security arena. However, the two are definitely separate.
Just go at their product page, they give you a free trial version - focus is on financials. Here's a simple tech sheet on it.
Consecutive POMO Tuesdays ending in red for equities.
Something tells me this is not a good development for the bulls(hitters).
Somewhere, Kevin Henry is running around mumbling a few lines of the song "Cruel Summer" whilst he thinks of the rich and lazy living it up in the Hamptons as he valiantly tries to keep equities afloat:
It's a cruel, cruel summer
Leaving me here on my own
It's a cruel, cruel summer
Now you're gone
You're not the only one
Poor Kev. Or not.
Gartman said yesterday usd/jpy is going to 150. hehe.
Good reporting; good charts. the S&P is about done; Stick a Fork in it !
IMO there is still one more run up towards 1700 ES and 16k DJIA. Lots of underperforming portfolio mgrs. looking to get in on dip, should provide momentum for euphoric blow off top and subsequent crash down to IMO ultimately triple digit ES.
Check the JPM Gold reserves if you've been following that story
June 10 2013 ? WOW
Check the JPM Gold reserves if you've been following that story
June 10 2013 ? WOW
An informal poll: which of the following activities is most similar to today’s trading session?
a) Grouting 30-ft. ceiling tiles with a child’s toothbrush, using Michelangelo’s original Sistine Chapel scaffold
b) A colonoscopy performed on a trapeze
c) Finally breaking open that ‘personal eye laser surgery kit’ you got in your X-mas stocking
d) Waiting in line at the Ohio Dept. of Motor Vehicles circa the mid-Seventies
e) Watching an entire Tarkovsky film, without a break, after chugging 13 Snapples sequentially
f) A firm handshake from a porcupine, after closing a mutually beneficial financial deal
g) Finding out, once and for all, if that strange-shaped, grey structure near your garage is a yellow jacket nest
d) Waiting in line at the Massachussetts DMV in the mid-Seventies. Ugh!
Yep. "Bring a lunch" people would say, and they weren't kidding. I stopped living in MA for a reason.