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The State Of Macro In 17 Simple Charts
With the US macro surprise index having hit 10-month lows - and now among the dirtiest of dirty shirts of world economic regions (thanks to the over-optimistic expectations) - we thought it useful to reflect somewhat stoically on the reality of the macro-economic environment that we are told day after day is doing so well in the US...
As Barclays notes,
Several indicators point to a slowdown in economic growth in Q2. For example, the manufacturing ISM fell to 49.0 in May, the lowest since the end of the recession in 2009. In addition, despite a solid increase in payrolls (of 175k), the three-month-moving average fell to 155k in May from 208k in April. Growth in aggregate hours worked also eased.
We view these developments as consistent with our forecast for GDP growth to be notably weaker in Q2 than Q1, reflecting an end to a mini-inventory cycle (which saw a large drag on GDP growth from stock accumulation in Q4 but a sizable boost in Q1) and a slower pace of consumer spending growth (as fiscal tightening at the start of the year curtails demand).
The Economic "Recovery"?
The Consumption "Recovery"?
The Jobs "Recovery"?
The Housing "Recovery"?
Do you see the government-credit-sponsored segment of the economy? (hint GREEN!)
Charts: Bloomberg and Barclays
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BTFD!
No population growth in the working age groups 16-54. All population growth in 55+ age group. These people don't spend, they hoard jobs, and they won't retire.
Slow, if any at all, growth is not surprising
so many train cars, so few jobs. what are we to do?
the "Plunge Protection Team" came out of Washington DC to "save the day" in 2008...and my money is literally on DC "riding to the rescue of Wall Street again." Obama has actually been quite good in my view vis a vis "what we need here is war" thing. We'll see but my view is that An Intervention is right around the corner...maybe something even bigger..."and if so this will define this Presidency."
No probelm for the over 55's with health insurance...ObamaCare will take care of them. Thats what "socially aware" countries do.... just like Europe and everywhere else right?
"I'm sorry, at 60 you do not qualify for a kidney transplant, but we will donate your other organs to those under 35 who need them."
the state of macro in 6 simple letters: BOHICA
Is that a kind of cigar?
IF your name is Monica, yes.
We need MOAR charts....that will fix every thing.
Charge the paddles! Clear!
Nurse. Call it. Time of death: 2013.
Yes but....
Everyone gets to drive to the food bank, in a new car!
That first chart is a doozy.
Why didn't I see it on "Mad Money" tonight?
doesn't this mean that people are living in SUVs and tiny trucks?
Electricity generation and gross oil consumption would round it out.
The cash-for-clunkers, sorry, the 'Vehicle Sales' graph looked OK.
Electricity generation caught the Chinese out in relationship/contradictions to some of their other fudged figures.
a war would kill of too many young men and we need them to support the aging
We just need robots and foreign slave labor to support the Aging Elite. Unfortunately, that creates some blowback and they'll also need a way to neutralize the enraged, unemployed domestic young males who are basically their only real existential threat. My best guess is that they'll choose an old-school high-body-count war.