David Rosenberg: "From What I Hear..."

Tyler Durden's picture

David Rosenberg, recent reflationist reincarnation aside, has never been one to interject spurious rumors in his client letters. Which is why, if what he is "hearing" is accurate, then the bulls better pray that David Tepper's view of the taper as being bullish (then again, to David Tepper everything is "bullish" during CNBC appearances as it is merely provides an opportunity to sell to the gullible public) is correct, or else Bernanke may go ahead and shock the market as soon as next week's FOMC press conference (the last until September) with a very disturbing gravitational reality check.

From what I hear, Ben Bernanke convinced the FOMC in December that in order to get ahead of a potential 'fiscal cliff' in December, it was a matter of having to 'shoot first and ask questions later'. In other words, take a pre-emptive strike in December against the prospect of falling off the proverbial cliff and into recession in the opening months of 2013. But what happened next was a fiscal deal that was reached in early January and the economy faced a hill, not a cliff. The economy still faces near-term sequestering hurdles, but the reality is that a bold policy move aimed at thwarting off recession is now being reconsidered. Bernanke apparently told the hawks on the FOMC that if the economy was not in contraction mode by now, the 'tapering off' talk would ensue — and that is exactly what has happened.

Oops.

* * *

David Rosenberg is Gluskin Sheff’s Chief Economist & Strategist and the author of the daily economic report, Breakfast with Dave. You can subscribe to it by visiting www.gluskinsheff.com/research.”

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fonzannoon's picture

The Bernank is gone buzz. His job is done. He will be a distant memory soon.

TheEdelman's picture

K. Henry is going to lose his mentor.  This is depressing

buzzsaw99's picture

yeah, we'll be gellin' with yellen soon enough.

cougar_w's picture

The Bernank will never be gone from our hearts. I for one will continue to blame him personally for eveything that has ever and will ever go wrong in any subject area for the rest of my natural life. Because it really will have been all his fault the stupid putz.

Bay of Pigs's picture

Lets not forget Greenspan, Rubin and Summers in all of this.

Credit where credit is due...the Bernank learned from the money masters and wizards of financial instruments.

Pinto Currency's picture

 

Wizards of deception and bullshit.

honestann's picture

I still think the Bernanke replacement will be Krugman.

Imminent Crucible's picture

It hurts me to say this, but some insiders are pointing towards Tim Geithner. Others are pointing out Fat Larry Summers.

Summers, Geithner, Krugman, Yellen----they are carbon copies, with the same programming: CTRL+P

Mike in GA's picture

I so hope you're wrong because I cannot imagine listening to that arrogant political hack weasel in an official capacity much less imagine his Cntrl-P prowness. 

You're a very smart woman, Ann, I just hope you get this one wrong.

 

XitSam's picture

Before I understood economics as I now do, back in the 1990s and early 2000s, the news media standard line was that the Fed's actions take at least 18 months to show up in the economy, usually two to three years.  Since then the Fed has increased its power of prediction, getting the lead time down to three to five months. What an amazing world we live in.

notquantumdum's picture

Alan Greenspan said many times, I believe, that, generally, it takes 6 to 18 months for the full effects of Fed policy changes (and presumably fiscal policy changes, as well) to be fully reflected in the economy.  If true, doesn't that prove that the economy would have already substantially improved by now if the politicians had actually fixed anything in the last 6-1/2 years?  What is the exceptional case, if not?

PS, the "news media standard line", is pretty much not worth consideration, with respect to economics.

ziggy59's picture

I used to think i understood economics...then I beamed down to bizarro world..nope!

notquantumdum's picture

Economics is simple.  It's based in part on psychology.

So, it's completely irrational.

lolmao500's picture
Former drone operator says he's haunted by his part in more than 1,600 deaths

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=792cd1u_XQw

buzzsaw99's picture

It's just a matter of time before some of those drones get marked "return to sender". It's not like they are very expensive or all that complicated to build.

sandiegoman's picture

so gold will tank and equities will????

Bay of Pigs's picture

"hawks on the FOMC "

LOL, that's a good one. And how is Bart Chilton's silver investigation coming along down at the CFTC?

The Master's picture

It's all relative.  Everyone is a hawk when compared to Bernank/Yellen.  

But let's be real.  We all know how an FOMC meeting goes down.  Everyone takes their seats and directs their attention to a large digital screen for a video conference call with Rothschild, Warburg, et al.  The FOMC members take out their pens and pads of paper and take notes diligently like schoolchildren.  That is all.

ebworthen's picture

But the economy is in contraction mode.

Satan's picture

There is a reason Benny ain't going to Jackson Hole in August...

Darth Silver's picture

Rosenberg has allowed himself to be hilsenrath

The fed is scared shitless that the allocated gold scandal is about to be disclosed. They are desperate for a real supply of gold to sell.

Hasn't happened yet.

As they said in Titanic "Iceberg, straight ahead!"

Mojeaux18's picture

Tepper, tepper, taper, tapper.  What difference does it make?

fijisailor's picture

No matter who is in charge of the FED the only option is to continue to print, and even more than before.  Anyone who thinks otherwise doesn't understand the nature of drug addiction.

oddjob's picture

Anybody that thinks existing tax revenues can fund the ever expanding police state, multiple wars and promised entitlements is wilfully ignorant.

assistedliving's picture

someone is threatening to put the hammer down...just cant figure who.

Krugman?

doggis's picture

"FROM WHAT I HEARD - EH"!!! DAVE I AM MORTIFIED THAT YOU FORGOT TO ADD ON THE "EH" AT THE END OF THAT SENTENCE.

HOW THE HECK and BEJESUS CAN YOU BE TAKEN SERIOUSLY AS A CANADIAN INTELLECTUAL IF YOU FORGET THE FRICKIN "EH"!!! MOOSE HAVE DIED FOR LESS, AND PIERRE ELLIOTT TRUDEAU [god rest his fabulous soul] IS ROTATING IN HIS GRAVE, EH!"

SO THERE YOU HAVE IT FOLKS - A PSEUDO CANADIAN INTELLECTUAL.

REALLY DAVE - REALLY!! COME ON!!

I STILL LOVE YOU THOUGH - eh!

monopoly's picture

Never going to happen. Period. Done, They can't, they won't but they will spew forth venom from their foul mouths.

thismarketisrigged's picture

i am just curious, are any zerohedge members invested one way or another in the stock market, or only im PMS?

 

i only ask this because we all know its not a market anymore and its a scam, but im still wondering despite how we all hate this market now and want it to crash, if there are members who do own stocks, or any positions be it short or long in this stock market today?

FreeMktFisherMN's picture

I sometimes flip UVXY and TVIX short term, and also NUGT and USLV for a quick trade. The only stocks I've ever invested in are SWHC and RGR.

 

I could also see myself trading more commodity ETFs in the future. Coffee (JO) has been hammered for quite some time, and I think it should start bottoming. Corn  (CORN) also probably needs to fill the huge gap down from April and the weather in the midwest has been so wet, too.

 

But first and foremost I'm a futures trader, mainly crude oil, sometimes euro, sometimes nat gas. 

notquantumdum's picture

Whew, those first four are pretty toxic longer-term.  FLIP is the key word in your sentence.  I like trading UGA and BNO, for some reason, despite how il-liquidly they trade.  I'll guess that I'm probably doing longer-term trades than you are.

notquantumdum's picture

Sure there are.  These individuals may just not believe everything they read, even on ZH.  They may just be seeking other information which is not otherwise readily available elsewhere.

And, hey!  The technicals usually still work even when nothing else does.  (And, they're not really looking so good for equities right now; we'd better hold the 50DMA on the S&P close, every day, or watch out below.)

And, I hate to admit it here, but I'm even hedged!  (But, net long equities, even though it's a relatively small part of the whole pie.)

(And, didn't the IBD just downgrade things to, equity, "market in correction"?  I think that's what I read.)

RhoneGSM's picture

Repeat after me: There is no voluntary exit from ZIRP.

OS2010's picture

I'm being obtuse again, sorry, but I lost the plot:

What *was* the action taken as "a pre-emptive strike in December against the prospect of falling off the proverbial cliff and into recession in the opening months of 2013....."?

OS2010's picture

Thanks, I'd forgotten.  It's been almost as if QE4EVA has been around 4EVA!

Bloody Chiclitz's picture

Drones - 'It's not like they are very expensive or all that complicated to build"

 

Yah, building remotely piloted aircraft that you can operate from 10,000 miles away is definitely easy and cheap.  Especially for people who can't even build cars or refridgerators.

Yep, the aerodynamics, avionics, power plant integration, satelite relay of massive data, targeting software, it's all hobbyist shit.

But

Then why can't I buy a robot lawn mower for 5 or 6k. My lawn doesn't move or change shape. A 8 year old with a long enough attention span can do it and not even lose any limbs. They could put some IR reflectors around and it could use a pentium or an atom proc runing Linux with 1 gig of ram and map it. I mean what the Hell, there is no aerodynamic component, g force calcs, cross wind, rate or angle of descent.  The thing could move at 2 MPH and take all day who would care.

Hey, drone builder guy! Build some robot lawn mowers first. Perfect your craft and get rich then you won't even need to build any drones you could buy em retail.

The above post is as serious as the article it's posted under.

 

dcohen's picture

Is Bernanke entertaining the idea that the US is not in contraction mode, he is even crazier than I thought. US is in muddling along or expansion mode only to Mirage men.

Letting rates go higher, yeah right, that will cause an instant revolution in the US, not a bad idea, but it won't happen, rates that is.

OS2010's picture

When you don't have to live in the real world, it's easy to think everything's OK for everyone.  I wonder if these people ever do their own shopping.

However, some of us prefer to live in the real world, where life means a whole lot more.

Dr.Engineer's picture

Margin is the highest since the last bubble blew.   Think people.  There is no more money, even if lending is free, to throw at this bubble.  Only if the Fed starts buying stocks will that happen -- it might. 

It seems there is something else afoot.  What is food inflation like in the 3rd world?  Maybe there are too many black swans swirling about and getting tired.  Japan?  China?  ECB?  Australia? 

Man, how do I sleep at night.