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Things In Greece Are Once Again Going Bump In The Trading Day
We have been gently reminding readers for the last few weeks that Greek bonds and stocks have not been dancing to the same tune as the European Union's leaders' proclamations of victory but today it seems the fears are spilling over into other assets. With the closure of the nation's state-owned TV station ERT, it seems the coalition is rapidly coming unglued. The highest of high beta liquidity-fueled momentum dash-for-trash trades are discovering that large crowds and small doors don't mix as the marginal 'flow' is slowing (or feared to slow). Greek stocks are now notably underwater for the year (after being up almost 28%) and Greek bonds are down almost 17% from their highs just a few weeks ago...
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This is even newsworthy?
Buy a gyro, support Greece!
Please there is no problem in Euroland, Hollande assured us of that. At least I think it was Hollande and not Bagdad Bob.
HMMmmm..there must be a couple Bagdad Bob loving NSA trolls out there.
THAT is funny...
Remember Tylers retweet of some MSM girl reporter that "greek bonds quadrupled" in a year, not long ago. Easy come, easy go indeed. Bye, bye, trashbubble.
Is Greece going to default? Will Greece leave the EURO? Will there be a cramdown of their bonds?
Sell that F'n wasteland to the Chinese and move on already.
"Large crowds and small doors" reminds me of something I wrote here:
http://nipponmarketblog.wordpress.com/2013/05/23/nikkei225-7-32/
"Things To Do With Drachma When You're Dead"
or
"Don't Forget To Take Out The Euro-Trash"
Once again Yahoo is a day behind Tyler, which is an inprovement for them.
Sales of Orwell's '1984' Soar After Spying Leakhttp://finance.yahoo.com/news/sales-orwells-1984-soar-spying-120930989.html
Something just went bump with PMs.
That is "Archimedes' Principle" (a well known Grecian incidentally) which is about buoyancy and holding beach balls under water.
Lots of buyers for some protection out there. Kevin must be busy trying to fill all the Buy Vol orders.
http://www.google.com/finance?chdnp=1&chdd=1&chds=1&chdv=1&chvs=logarithmic&chdeh=0&chfdeh=0&chdet=1371067200000&chddm=1173&chls=IntervalBasedLine&cmpto=NYSEARCA:USO;NYSEARCA:XIV;NYSEARCA:GLD&cmptdms=0;0;0&q=NYSEARCA:SPY&&fct=big&ei=ZY24UeDQLsWg0AHUfw
OMT is illegal and it is simply not possible to make a case to the contrary in court, at least in Germany.
http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/german-high-court-skeptical-of-ecb-bond-buying-a-905246.html
Let's see if their legal system is as rigged as ours.
Dramatic be a deterioration in the Greek stock market, as the vote of confidence that it plans to ask the LD from PASOK and Tourism Services who oppose the closure of ERT, shakes foundations cohesion of the government.
Market has returned the uncertainty and political risk, which is clearly visible on an almost daily basis, as a combination of adverse events, news and circumstances, aggravated for good climate.The stock closed with new, huge losses -3.21% at 867 units, as liquidations especially in the FTSE 25 was mass of up to 10% in key deiktovareis titles.
Involvement with DEPA, the degradation of the stock from the MSCI and developments with ERT leading directly into question the government's cohesion, escalating political uncertainty and impact on the market. He is also in ongoing recapitalization of banks and entered Monday to trading rights in Piraeus Attica Bank, intensifying pressure causes!
Some people seem to know that it has "locked" the downgrade by MSCI for this refstopoiousan for 18 meetings uninterrupted!
It is no coincidence that the General Index closed depressing 14 out of 18 meetings from the high of May 17 when it closed at 1,152 points, losing a total of -24.77%!
Now, the rapid escalation of political risk (reminiscent of days June 2012), he came to "snap" to the already disturbed atmosphere, contributing to insecurity and instability.
Within this electrifying scene moved the meeting today, where the pressures in the more ... systemic blue chips escalated last two hours!
In banks, Alpha Bank closed unchanged at 0.4050 euros, while the warrants after yesterday's debut negative (-61.38%) equilibrated close to 10% and 0.6160 euros.
The National strengthened by 3.51%, the Attica Bank +0,83%, while Piraeus ended with fall -1.35%.
In contrast, under pressure from the beginning of the meeting agreed that Eurobank EFG in locked limit down -29,81%!
In that respect the rights, received today pressures, the right to PRM Piraeus losing -52% to 0.0120 euros with a volume of 13.5 million units, and Attica Bank to -70% to 0.0060 euros ! The rights of Attica and Piraeus Bank are have essentially zero.
Recall that yesterday, the first trading day, the warrants of Alpha Bank are lost -61.38%, the right of Piraeus -93.51% and Attica Bank -98,61%!
The turnover stood at 90 million while the volume reached 88.4 million units, of which 31.3 million were transported to Alpha Bank.
In the area of ??FTSE 25 saw mass liquidations with Coca Cola HBC losing -6.50%, -6.86% OTE, Hellenic Petroleum -5.19%, PPC -6.34%, the Motor Oil -6 71% Mytilineos -7.69% to -8.29% EHEA and MIG -10,26%.
Regarding the downgrade by Morgan Stanley Capital International, certainly it is an unfavorable evolution and supposedly reports that funds and portfolios will be placed in the Greek market as emerging markets, can not beautify this negative development.
The Greek stock market tried many years to be upgraded in mature markets and the development of degradation is a historic setback. Noted that in 2001 the ASE upgraded to mature in 2013 downgraded to emerging viz 2001.
The rest is blithely arguments beautification effort and responsibilities for this decadent situation lies with both the government and the policy continues and the stock market authorities who failed to protect the stock.
The course of bank shares
The -29.81% of Eurobank and fading of the rise in bank shares show that the dramatic political developments lure everything.
However it should be noted that Alpha primarily and secondarily Piraeus tend to be found close to fair value and instead the National continues in overrated band in terms of P / BV and as tangible book value.
The National closed at 4.13 euro rose 3.51% and a volume of 2.1 million units by assessing 9,898 billion.
The stock remains below the value of the capital increase of 4.29 euros.
Tomorrow concludes the capital increase and the right behavior and share just disappointed as expected.
The Alpha Bank are completed 7 consecutive downward meetings in June with district losses -39.55%, while currently closed unchanged at 0.4050 euros, with strong volume of 31.3 million units and 944 million valuation.
The Alpha Bank are located close to fair value and the warrants after the first shock react upwards as incorporating value.
Piraeus launched yesterday by the new price of 1.71 euro closed today at 1.46 euro fall -1.35% with a volume of 2.4 million units and measurement 1.135 billion.
The right of Piraeus after yesterday today lost -93.51% -52% to 0.0120 euros with a volume of 13.5 million units! The stock is close to fair value as determined between 1.40 to 1.55 euros.
The Attica Bank are closed at 0.3630 euro rose 0.83%, while the right almost annihilated losing again -70% to 0.0060 euros!
The bank has informed the bog that will meet the target of 396 million euros.
The Eurobank moved outset downward locking in the finale at -29.81% and 0.1860 euros, with a volume of 6.5 million units and 102 million valuation.
The stock remains depressed and uncertain future of the bank while some designs that had existed eg to incorporate good TT and New Proton Bank are postponed for the future.
Not to say much, unfortunately I must repeat our warnings as www.bankingnews.gr for a long time.
The banking sector was overvalued, pressures expected, unfortunately sometime it was dominated by the logic of P / BV and prove that some Greek bank stocks were overvalued defiantly.
What can happen shortly
Primarily rights have been reset, so no need to worry or be anxious investors to value is zero. But the phenomenon Alpha Bank are the warrants will be replicated in other banks in national and Piraeus.
But do not rush to draw conclusions warrants were opposed to the rights mask value.
The crucial question is the big drop has been made recently with a focus on banks, has streamline valuations, extreme and excessive P / BV and conditions tangible book value which is the value of banks?
The Alpha Bank are displays P / BV 0,58 - the National displays P / BV 1,8 - Piraeus P / BV 0,85 and Eurobank P / BV of about 1.38.
The Alpha Bank are valued close to fair value, Piraeus is a little more expensive, while the Alpha but has a tangible book value 8,8 billion most in the industry while clearly particularly national and Eurobank are overrated band.
These approaches are not based on subjective elements, but take into account the actual book value of banks.
Investors closely monitor tangible book value and at the same time to compare valuations against other major European banks eg
The Credit Agricole to 1.85 trillion. euro assets displays capitalization 16.4 billion
The BNP Paribas with 1.96 trillion. euro assets capitalization displays 56 billion.
Deutsche Bank with 1.22 trillion. euro assets capitalization displays 36 billion.
The Unicredit, the largest Italian bank with 926 billion in assets are capitalized 25.5 billion.
Tested and 850 units now in Athens
The great fall of banks and general market has caused the general index below the critical zone of 900 units. The market has lost successive areas of support and instrumental band, losing and 980 units today, with next support point to 850 points! At this stage it seems that the 850 units tested whether cleave downstream support the next 800 units.
Dramatic drop in the FTSE 25 ??? -10%
Dramatic decline recorded in deiktovareis shares FTSE 25. The government falters while the fiasco in privatization of DEPA spoiled market sentiment. E
lso funds the National and other banks sold FTSE 25 to enhance liquidity in the face of PRM and market obviously pressed.
The shares of OPAP decline -1.4% to 6.34 euros at critical technical support point 6,2 euros and resistance 7 euros.
The EIO has fallen to 18.46 euro decline -6% and valuation of 6.5 billion euros.
OTE lossy -7% to 5.70 euro 2.9 billion valuation. A critical technical support point 5.5 euros and resistance 6,2 euros.
The share of HEP is 6.41 euro drop -5% to the valuation of 2 billion, having critical technical points the 6 euro as support and resistance as 6.8 euros.
PPC is trading at 6.38 euros at -8% drop in valuation of 1.5 billion, with technical support point 6 euros and resistance 6.8 euros.
The MIG is 0.2710 euro fall -10% with a technical support point 0,26 euro and 0,32 euro this resistance.
The EXAE under pressure at a rate of -8% to 5.27 euro, 1.81 euro Intralot to drop to -7% and PPA to EUR 16.50 -3.5%.
Resulted junks shares of Cypriot banks
The dramatic developments in Cyprus, forced the authorities to suspend trading in the stock market. Banks in Cyprus began to operate under conditions of unrealistic constraints mainly on capital movements but bank stocks continue to remain off the table until 31 May.
BOC even came off the indicators on the ASE. Note that the share of the People has been canceled as the bank broke into good and bad bank. Shares of Cypriot banks have turned into junks.
Improvement in bonds and CDS in Europe
Improvement recorded today on bond yields and CDS but as gradually relieved the pressure. CDS on Greece at 12% or 1,200 bps.
In Ireland CDS at 168 bps Portugal 368 bps
In Spain 254 bps Italy 264 bps in France 73 bps and Germany 29 bps
The 5-year CDS of Slovenia at 355 bps and Slovakia 93 basis points.
Bond yields in 10 years in Europe record mild fall.
In Spain the yield in 10 years at 4.58% from 4.66%.
In Italy 4.32% from 4.34%, France 2.20%, Portugal 6.26% from 6.538%, Belgium 2.41% and Ireland 4.15% from 4.18%.
To think that the Greek 10-year bond is at 9.40%.
The new German 10years at 1.59% stabilizer moves with respect to the 1.6% yesterday.
The euro was at $ 1.3283 moving up, with diurnal variation $ 1.3279 to $ 1.3335 a result of movements of the ECB.
Marginal improvement in prices on 10-year Greek bonds
Marginal improvement is noted in the prices of Greek bonds, after the recent selloff.
The prices of 20 bonds traded in the secondary market averages at 48.5 basis points to 47.3 basis points yesterday.
The market scale sale of 20 new bonds formed at 48 to 49 basis points.
It is obvious that the bond market will be driven, and manipulated under the constant influence of speculation because of the shallowness of however over time and there is speculation and new cycle could eg The 10-year rise to 70-75 basis points, but not at this stage.
In 2023 bond prices fell as between 57 and 59 basis points or 9.87% yield. In 2042 bond prices move between 44.25 to 46 basis points or 8.81% yield of 8.90%.
www.bankingnews.gr
This is what happens when your entire GDP is less than a SAC luncheon cost and hedgies decide to attack another country..next up Turkey.
She's a fucking mess after that gang bang!
ZH how much milk have you gotten out of this cow? Isnt it clear that these countries will never default even if Bernank has to push control P personally. The amount of debt doesnt matter anymore. Does USA debt amount matter? Will it be payed off? Does Japans debt amount matter? Will it get payed off? What does it matter if the bond interest is 1% or 50% these debts will never be paid off and the credit line will never be cut off. If you are paying 50% interest on your bonds it just means you need a bigger credit line.
Whatya mean? The Greek markets are doing awesome. They've recently had a 246% recovery. And that was after a decline of only 91.2%. So the ATG must be way up, right? Not exactly. Do you have any idea how fucking ugly a market looks when it goes through a 91% decline followed by a whopping 246% bounce? After a market falls 90% people sometimes ask :"Well it's already fallen 90%. It's gotta be a 'buy' now because how much further could it possibly fall? And the answer, as always, is "It can fall another 90%. That's what Greecs is facing now.
Take a look at this chart of the Greek stock market: http://tinyurl.com/kmn739c
"...the coalition is rapidly coming unglued."
On the very highest Greek authority:- this is NOT because the country's coffers are empty, nor because it has slipped to 4th world status, nor because unemployemnt is higher than the nation's population and nor is it because there is negative economic growth.
No, it's simply because it's "summertime". And as we all know, everything comes unglued during summertime and turns into a very sticky mess. Come autumn, everything will be "fixed". We know this to be true because the EU-True Believers and assorted crats have told us so.
Even Japan is doing better!