This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

10 Nagging Concerns

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Gluskin Sheff's David Rosenberg has ten nagging concerns...

1. No wonder China can no longer reflate like it did back in 2009. It would be adding more debt to an unprecedented credit bubble...

2. Wondering why the Euro is doing so well and the economy is not? Draghi is no longer stimulating as he was last year when he was saving the system. Now he is putting fiscal policy-making as a caveat. In the meantime, the ECB balance sheet is shrinking!

normalized to USD...

Why EURUSD has been rallying...

 

and compared to the rest of the world's Central banks, the ECB is 'showing restraint' though as we noted here - there is a quasi-quantitive easing occurring...

3.  One has to wonder what it means for the overall Asian economic backdrop to have Korean exports contracting for four months now... (and only one month of rising exprts in the last 11)

4. Bond yields are backing up sharply as the term premium shifts from being negative to positive. The stock market is starting to pay attention as well, but it seems unrealistic to have 10-year yields near 2% with nominal GDP growth still north of 3%, unless recession or deflation is in your forecast.

Is the Fed losing control?

 

5. Commodities have been on a weakening trend, so the back-up in yields hardly reflects heightened investor inflation concerns...

Are commodities saying the central banks have failed?

6. The Australian Dollar diving to a four-year low the way it has is another signpost of challenged global growth - at least over in Asia...

Aussie dollar goes vertical down under...

7. The same idea lies behind the breakdown in the Hang Seng index - not to mention the plethora ofd EM currencies and bond markets which have come close to imploding in recent weeks. The question is now one of possible contagion...

Breakdown in the Hang Seng...

8. The euro area is in a full-fledged depression with deepening negative GDP growth and a 12% unemployment rate that looks set to move even higher...

 

9. There is no evidence in the fiscal or supply-side (productivity) data to suggest that the euro-zone has come anywhere close to being successful in delivering on structural reforms...

10. The latest slump in the Nikkei and back-up in JGB yields, not to mention the heightened volatility, suggests that the BoJ's aggressive stance is no longer producing risk-on results...

* * *

David Rosenberg is Gluskin Sheff’s Chief Economist & Strategist and the author of the daily economic report, Breakfast with Dave. You can subscribe to it by visiting www.gluskinsheff.com/research.”

 

- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Thu, 06/13/2013 - 21:36 | 3656714 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Hey wonderful...

~~~

Now we're down to using ESPN sports artwork logos... [Thanks Rothschild]!...

~~~

 If anybody... at this late hour... REALLY gets to 'a-Jonesin' for some 'sexy' click bait... I provide you with this:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-06-13/japan-resorts-teenage-girls-sho...

In this way... You can understand how to ONLY hold accountable 'certain types', most importantly ~ NOT cheesepopes, for misogny [& not others ~ because only 'OTHERS' do bad things]...

Fri, 06/14/2013 - 06:36 | 3657492 imaginalis
imaginalis's picture

<---- will vote for unknown candidate

<---- will vote Republican or Democrat

Fri, 06/14/2013 - 07:04 | 3657516 bonderøven-farm ass
bonderøven-farm ass's picture

<-------- none of the above

Thu, 06/13/2013 - 21:15 | 3656735 Spitzer
Spitzer's picture

Rosenberg said a couple years ago that a bond bubble was ridicules. What was his time frame on that ?

Is he aware that recessions historically are bad for the bonds of the recessing economy ?  Check those yields in Mexico in the 80's or SE Asia in 1997. Or Greece....

Thu, 06/13/2013 - 22:33 | 3656964 candyman
candyman's picture

discredited with his calls 5 years ago. worthless economist. But a smart guy for jeporday.

Thu, 06/13/2013 - 23:50 | 3657151 Tom is fed up
Tom is fed up's picture

Rosenberg is definitely on the JV squad of economist.  The bond market is going to implode world wide.

Thu, 06/13/2013 - 21:19 | 3656743 Wave Maker
Wave Maker's picture

It doesn't look like the contagion hit the US market yet.

Thu, 06/13/2013 - 21:23 | 3656755 FreedomGuy
FreedomGuy's picture

Since the world is doing managed economies and central planning which government officials get fired because of these poor numbers?

Answer: No one in government suffers but the public gets poorer. Keep believing in that government genius.

Thu, 06/13/2013 - 21:54 | 3656857 Anusocracy
Anusocracy's picture

The 98+% of the population that want to force their beliefs on others can stick their beliefs up their asses.

Private knowledge should be just that: private.

Thu, 06/13/2013 - 21:30 | 3656782 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

It's all good. The taper is off, war is coming, .gov is spying on us, the IRS is targeting us... rally on and BTFD bitchez!

Thu, 06/13/2013 - 21:32 | 3656789 Hedgetard55
Hedgetard55's picture

Rosie hasn't been right in 5 years about anything. Maybe this time he will be.

Thu, 06/13/2013 - 23:14 | 3657073 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

"hardly reflects heightened investor inflation concerns"

Anyone getting sick of hearing that crap too when inflation is running at 8% or more?

Thu, 06/13/2013 - 21:42 | 3656818 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Nagging appears to be the correct answer if your taught new 1st grade teachings on Common Core Policies. Sorry, could resist.

Thu, 06/13/2013 - 21:47 | 3656829 Scro
Scro's picture

People that annoy you

Naggers

Thu, 06/13/2013 - 23:31 | 3657113 Cobra
Cobra's picture

http://youtu.be/x7zRlnyfB_M

(South Park "Naggers" clip.)

Thu, 06/13/2013 - 21:49 | 3656841 JackT
JackT's picture

Only 10?

Thu, 06/13/2013 - 22:04 | 3656882 Crash Overide
Crash Overide's picture

Pretty pictures, they look like waves crashing... :)

Thu, 06/13/2013 - 22:57 | 3657036 Non Passaran
Non Passaran's picture

#3: good to see that beggar thy neighbor is working.

Waiting for that black swan...
I'm hoping PIIGS will be it. We'll know by September.

Fri, 06/14/2013 - 00:22 | 3657194 otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

Merkel is moving back to center and taking a populist tack to win the election  and will give our Nagger-In-Chief an earful about spying on its citizens when he sees her soon- which is rich coming from an old commie cunt like she is/was.

Fri, 06/14/2013 - 00:18 | 3657190 Schmuck Raker
Schmuck Raker's picture

Wait....why was Rosie bullish last week?

[I admit it, I didn't even read the Cliff's Notes of his last exposure here]

Fri, 06/14/2013 - 05:15 | 3657459 Snoopy the Economist
Snoopy the Economist's picture

Ben wants commodities low so he can claim low inflation. Inflation is in stocks.

Fri, 06/14/2013 - 11:54 | 3658239 NipponMarketBlog
NipponMarketBlog's picture

 

 

The BoJ's floundering is producing excellent scope for directional momentum strategies (35% net return in 2 months), if you can indentify them....

http://nipponmarketblog.wordpress.com/2013/06/12/the-35-nikkei-225-round...

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!