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If There Is A "Housing Recovery" Then This Chart Can't Be Right
Let's start with the oldest economics joke in the book: "assume there is a housing recovery."
Ok, let's assume that.
So, applying logic, wouldn't consumers be actively buying furniture for their brand new homes, instead of furniture sales not only declining for the past year but posting the first negative print since January 2011, and the Great Financial Crisis before that?
... Because we are confused.
And here are some additional thoughts on the issue of the housing recovery via Doug Kass:
I expect last week's "rally" in applications will be short lived relative to history.
Here is why:
Home affordability is overstated today when compared to the last cycle.
The bubble from 2003-2007 was all about "leverage-in-finance", I.e.: popular, exotic loan products of each period, terms, allowable DTI, documentation type, start/qualifying interest rates etc. For example, from 2003 to '05 a 5/1 interest only loan allowed 50% DTI qualifying at interest only payments. From 2006 to '07 Pay Option ARMs allowed 55% DTI at a 1.25% start rate.
This made the "cost" of buying a house HALF of what it is today.
Then when the leverage-in-finance all went away during a short period of time from late-2007 to mid-2008 house prices quickly "reset" to what people could afford to pay on a fundamental basis...30-year fixed mortgages, fully documented, 45% DTI, at a 6% interest rate.
Because 70%+ of homebuyers use mortgage loans -- and the monthly payment trumps the "purchase price" of the house with respect to purchase ability and decisioning -- then it stands to reason that the monthly payment rate of popular loan types of each period relative to house prices would determine whether or not house prices are once again bubbly.
Bottom Line: the popular loan programs during the bubble years -- which allowed for rapid and large house price appreciation -- were not 30-year fixed loans like today. Rather, exotic interest only loans, negative amortizing Pay Option ARMs and high CLTV HELOCs. Thus, comparing the "affordability" of houses using today's 30-year rates and program guidelines vs 30-year rates and guidelines from 2003 to 2007 is apples to oranges.
Based on "cost of ownership" for the 70% who need a mortgage loan to buy, CA houses are more expensive today than from 2003 to 2007. This is why first-timer buyer volume has plunged to 4-year lows recently. And if not for the incremental buyer & price pusher -- the institutional "buy and rent or flip "investor" that routinely pays 10% to 20% over the purchase price / appraised value treating a house like a high-yield bond -- present house prices cannot be supported.
On this basis, back in 2006 a $555k house "cost" as much as a $325k house does today.
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Chart's wrong, obviously since the reality of the housing recovery can not be disputed.
The "housing recovery" meme is based on construction of apartments. Apartment dwellers don't buy much furnature.
You may be right. I just GAVE AWAY all the furniture in my Mom's old house. Couldn't sell it. Nobody wanted anything unless the price was "come get it and take it away."
The people coming to get the stuff were...... very interesting people.
krugman?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sc3H4UkkZgk
The chart for axe sales in colder states is rising sharply
People aren't buying furniture because most of the buyers are leveraged investors. They don't actually plan on living there.
This is textbook. Create artificial shortage, let investors leverage to the hilt, raise interest rates to scare mom & pop into buyiing a house, whole thing comes crashing down and the average joe & jane are left holding the bag. Banks will just mark to fantasy and transfer losses to public, making sure everyone gets hit even if you didn't buy a house.
round 2
There's no inventory and sales are down.
A couple things:
1) 70% if buyers don't get a mortgage, more like 60% this year.
2) Fewer exotic mortgage products is a GOOD thing in the long run.
3) Tying furniture sales to home sales is a bit tenuous given overall economic numbers, because most people are just going to move in furniture they already own.
Looking for the chart showing spike in Y/Y RICKETY BOAT SALES, since so many are reported lost for some reason
Investors don't need moar furniture unless they could rent them back to the prols at profit.
As for the people ....
Trailers are coming fully furnished, folks. That's the new middle class.
Cardboard boxes don't fit no furnitures. That's the new lower class.
Recovery!
There cannot be a housing recovery when the average income is not improving. At the end of the day someone has to have the money to pay that mortgage. W/o that income this "recovery" is simply another mirage.
The furniture recovey cycle normally lags the housing recovery cycle by 1-3 years.
Paul K.
That's right . . . . you buy the house first,
then live with empty rooms for 1 - 3 years
until you can finally afford furniture to fill them.
I am good friends with a local carpenter. Work on constructing new homes, or even renos, has dried up considerably. He said (locally) there are more bids for each contract (contractors undercutting and lowballing, estimating below cost, etc.). Its the defintion of anecdotal, and it only applies to my local area, but it is very telling. Renters don't renovate.
Same where I'm at, checks are late.
In the southeast, a friend hired a contractor for work on his estate. The guy's pitch was total lies and he low balled the costs, time, and problems. It seems the only contractors getting work these days are the bottom of the barrel.
Yeah, people forget sometimes what happens when you give the work to the lowest bidder.
We joked when I was in HS all the time that the school was built by the lowest bidder.
We joked about that in boats (submarines) too!
I think part of the recovery comes from mortgage forgiveness and increased value(thanks low rates and bank hoarding). When both happen mortgage forgiveness and rising values happen after forgiveness, there should ve repayment. Lets see, I spend 5m on a house I can't afford with a rate that just adjusted to 1o%. gubmint lowers my principal to 2.5m @1% cause I missed few payments. A year later my house value is worth 4.5m. I'm happy because my debt was reduced by 2.5m, my interest on the remainder is 1%, and my house is now worth 4.5 mil again. Praise Jesus.
Tylers, I keep telling you that you have to turn your monitors upside down and everything will be FINE
Just when everything was going so well.
Does this chart include "intangible" furniture?
I believe they have increased the CPI coefficient for downloadable Sims 3 furniture, with added hedonics adjustments, of course.
Anything else would just be akin to madness.
I don't get YoY charts...
It's the rate of change at any given point in time as compared to 12 months ago.
S'posed to take out the seasonality aspect. Compares Jan 1 this year with last years Jan 1.
It doesn't include intangible furniture but the hedonic adjustor for used Barcaloungers is out of this world!
Your confusion stems from your lack of "faith", "hope", and "belief" in the little, partially bald, bearded, male money honey. You can see miracles if you just want to.
Doesnt anyone remember the term "house poor".
No money for furniture so you bring in the patio furniture at dinner time.
And you save on house cleaning products.
I gave mine to salvation army and took the tax write-off instead. Fuck You IRS
This is nothing new (buying a house with ALL the money the two of you have). Wife and I did just that. Nice starter home in a good neighborhood. All we had for furniture was a king size bed (a man needs a large playground), and a folding card table with two folding chairs. The ass holes who had to get out before we bought the place took the fridge, stove, washer, drier, and the two A/C's. I would bring home a load of ice from work every night, and we cooked on a camp stove for the first six months. That was 45 years, and two kids ago. Wife would get all our stuff from goodwill. Three years later we had our first child, and I had gotten pretty good at furniture refinishing (still have two pieces in this home).
I used to make a nice income...not so much anymore. When our kitchen table broke, wifey went out to look at new ones. Minimum of 1,000 bucks. No thanks. I took the outside patio table in the house, threw a tablecloth on it and whamo....come n get it kids. Now I can pay my real estate taxes for a month. wow ....where is the bright side? Im mixing a drink.
I hear you. If it wasn't for the in-laws we would be getting any "new" furniture. What we have is nice and will have to last. After that it ends it's life in one our kids' apartments.
Hang in there, man.
"buying a house with ALL the money the two of you have" Not a good idea at the current bubble prices, some which are just as high as 2004 -2006. The bubble has never popped, just reinflated with Ben's $85 billion per month buying spree.
It's a good time to buy firniture then!
buy the dip...
People who pick up free furniture from the curb are often referred to as "urban commandos".
I was out running a couple nights ago, two old black windsor side chairs on the curb at one house, drove by an hour later on the way to a friends and they were gone...that's how people are doing furniture these days, and if it isn't free it doesn't go anywhere.
Agree about the apartments, all the new construction around me, greater Seattle area, is apartments. Some of the rents are insane, 1600 for a eight hundred square foot apartment. 2200 for a twelve hundred sf town home. It is the area around Microsoft.
Pretty much ditto here in Portland - all around western suburbs of Intel, Nike but also tons of new condos being built within the city...so many new apartments and townhouses coming.
Money is so cheap that builders can't help themselves...they are in a mad rush buiding. Something like 10k new units coming on line in the next 6mos.
All part of the Bernanke circle-jerk.
"They will build it, if we come."
All that NSA money has to go somewhere.
No furniture for you! LOL!
Bingo.
Here's your housinhg recovery:
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fredgraph.png?g=7iv
1960s levels with 50 million more ppl and mortgages a fraction of what they were then.
Gee, that chart overlays really well with Blythe's invention of the CDS back in '94. Go figure.
Gotta love this quote of hers.
You don't say?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blythe_Masters
Oh yes, financial WMDs are so much better when used 'properly'!
Don't Short Sales and Foreclosures come fully furnished???
let's take a wild guess as to how many REO's and FC's are being held back by banksters nationwide...
A. 5-10 houses
B. 100,000 houses
C. 500,000 houses
D 1 meelion houses
E. 5 meelion houses
It is truly a miracle that only Obama, The Bernank, and the NRA can achieve: A housing recovery without lending, buying, lumber, income, inventory, employment, and now, furniture. Yes, amazing. Hail our all knowing leaders....How could we ever question them?
J
There are two people who buy homes
1- Those that need a roof over their head... they buy furniture and are good for any Economy
2- Investors who buy homes to rent..... Those homes are empty shells and the renters have no money left to even think about Furniture... These Investors are bad for any Economy ..... and thats whats happening.... digging graves
You make the fatal assumption that people actually live in said homes.
yeah no shit. cop: "hey! you can't park your house here!" recidivist: "we're not parking that house here. we're abandoning it!"
exactly, u cant fit a sofa in a toyota......
obviously people are buying brand new houses and purchasing furniture at garage sales - i have at least three couches in my house that my wife and i picked right up off the curb
what did you say? please talk into the tomato. wait is that i drone i hear?
Wooh Jah........did that tomato have any talk back capabilities......?
If you go to the wrong part of town, you can pick up wives right off the curb, too.
"wife" implies that you'd keep her.
I didn't say that it was my wife.
Under Sharia Law temporary wives can be had for only a few days or weeks as long as you feed and house her. Works for me.
And its NOT prostitution. Completely distinct.
please send directions to this 'wrong part of town' - do they take donations as well?
In my old college town..it was illegal to have a couch on the front porch...lol....
Now it's illegal to have your couch on four wheels. They call it "stealth camping". The new paradigm is living on the outskirts of the SuperWalMart parking lot.
I spent a couple of years living in a predominately college-kid apartment complex, and at the end of every semester I'd get all sorts of furniture that they'd pile up next to the dumpster.
Not sure why anyone wants to spend an absurd amount of money on an overpriced new mcmansion only to fill it with curbside finds, because there is nothing left over after the downpayment and mortgage.
Difference between a "nominal" -(i.e.; in name only) recovery and a real one. Nothing real needed to fill up an appreciating house.
They are making coffee tables out of OSB, chairs out of tree stumps, mattresses out of used packaging, and stoves out of old 45 gallon drums modified to burn wood. Totally explainable.
No - the recovery is going so well that Americans are now eating, sleeping and sitting on bars of Gold.
Perfectly rational explanation.
Mmmmm, nice firm mattress
You forgot milk crate bookshelves.
I know up here in Canada, the RE boards keep on claiming a hot housing market. While in said areas, every 2nd or 3rd house has a forsale sign on it. Talk about utter delusion!
When the housing correction comes to Canada, as it must when interest rates rise. It will be fast and shockingly brutal as everyone tries to sell or go broke. That will be the time short Canadian banks and the Looney.
You are most likely correct. The article points out that people generally shop monthly payments and remain clueless as to the sales price. If/when interest rates go up the sales price will have to come down so that the target monthly payment remains the same. That is how I got into the slumlord business in Central TX in the late '80s when FHA was giving houses away and rates were over 10%. The trick was to have the cash to buy them.
However, this line of thought may not work if the economy gets into a wage/price spiral like the '70s. That is how I got saddled with my first house.
canada... land of syrop and mapple leafs...
And superior public schools.
well... after STORAGE WARS... America decided to buy second hand crap instead of new crap...
throwing it all out right now. "what can't be tossed gets burned."
Oooh oooh - let me have a go...
Is it because people only need an old sofa and a tent if you're going to live on the street corner?
...or is it that the US population is now so mobile (transient) it does not require the baggage of furniture?
Please tell me why...
A shoppimg trolley ,and bridge underpass don't require much.
Hobo nation.
Hedgies acquiring enomous amounts of real estate in a desperate search for yield (I mean, 'Alpha'...)
When tapering arrives and interest rates push just a bit higher, does this mean we'll have a second housing crash in the US, that will take large chunks of the hedge fund industry with it?
http://nipponmarketblog.wordpress.com/
Snip from a thread I was involved in back on the 5th of June, on a different forum:
http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=7765
" Comment by Beer and Cigar Guy 2013-06-05 07:39:31No, no NINJA this time. Now we will have f@cked flippers and huge profit-oriented entities holding empty, deteriorating assets with significant carrying costs and no buyers/renters at their desired price. Both groups will want to liquidate these non-performing assets, recover all that they can and put that money ‘to work’ at some other table in the casino. They will be natural competitors. The REIC and .gov will want them all to act in lockstep as a bloc, continuing trickle them out and keeping prices inflated. But its not Fannie and Freddie any more. Its a bunch of individual, cash, private investors who will all act in their own best interests. And they all know that, “He who sells first, gets most”. Stand by…
(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by Housing Analyst 2013-06-05 07:44:07
BINGO.
The first to head for the exit wins. And that is key to this entire “housing recovery” fraud foisted on the public.
Comment by Beer and Cigar Guy 2013-06-05 08:25:00
Yeah, buddy! The Bernank found his ‘Greater Fool’- the hedgies. It took a lot of hype, market pumping and money to whip the feeble-minded back into a froth, but they got the village idiots gibbering again. Then once the ‘buzz’ was in the air, came the ’special deal’; buying in large blocks direct from the GSEs, double-secret-probation-pricing, riches beyond your wildest dreams… but you gotta’ pay me in cash. Yes, the cheese in the mousetrap is always free.
Comment by Carl Morris 2013-06-05 09:39:59
But the question is, will we bail out the big investors at taxpayer expense?
Comment by In Colorado 2013-06-05 09:49:48
But the question is, will we bail out the big investors at taxpayer expense?
Don’t we always do that?
Comment by Carl Morris 2013-06-05 09:56:47
So far.
Comment by homie don't play houses 2013-06-05 09:59:06
But the question is, will we bail out the big investors at taxpayer expense?
Yes, yes and YES!
Comment by Beer and Cigar Guy 2013-06-05 10:37:35
Will they bail them out? I’m not so sure. The bail outs were about leveraged credit and knock-on effects if the creditors (banks) had to absorb losses. Now its just a pool of cash from poor-sap rich guys. The government has no “moral obligation” or mandate to bail out hedge fund fat-cats. See? They found their patsy. Their “Greater Fool”."
I'm expecting a back-door bailout of several of the largest REITs via "accounting reform" and Benron's magic checkbook.
After all, these are the aggregators being utilized to "sop up liquidity." Otherwise, why would they have built up such massive portfolios? They surely aren't stupid enough to expect to become profitable from rents when there's so much new competition.
To me, this is just another "jobs" program in order to keep the facade shiny for yet another day.
Bingo on ......accounting reform
.......aka professionally privileged.
He who panics first, panics best.
+1......101
Wooooh......screen spew....bust out the wipe please!
LOL, I got banned from that board a few years ago, my less than liberal point of view wasn't appreciated.
Is exeter still on there? : )
"But the question is, will we bail out the big investors at taxpayer expense?"
It's not flip overpriced homes to unsuspecting buyers anymore, now it's flip overpriced financial paper to the Fed.
Taxpayers won't feel the loss because Fed never will sell that stuff and book a loss. It's the final resting place for boatloads of non-performing financial paper (with AAA rating of course).
So the goal is keep home prices inflated so financial paper on those homes stays inflated ...long enough to flip to the Fed at least.
Physical houses don't matter anymore, just the financial paper on them. All kinds of gimmicks (legalized fraud) are used to keep that financial paper inflated while the actual houses sit empty and deteriorate rapidly.
Mark-to-fantasy is the gimmick we're most familair with. Long as banks don't sell those empty deteriorating houses and book the loss, financial paper on those houses can be kept at fantasy high value, long enough to flip to the Fed at least.
After it's flipped to the Fed and banks have their money, ok, dump those houses now. That's where big investors come in buying bundles of 'em dirt cheap, bypassing the normal RE market so those dirt cheap prices don't get reported (and no RE commissions paid).
Now the paper flipped to the Fed is worthless. Doesn't matter, it'll never be sold, it dies on Fed's balance sheet, kept at mark-to-fantasy value the whole time, since nobody audits Fed's balance sheet.
Banks and big investors are the winners. Fed is the loser. But not really, Fed just conjured the money in a computer with a few keystrokes.
Ultimately everybody with savings in dollars are the losers. And CDs and money market accounts in dollars. And bonds in dollars. And stocks in dollars. And paychecks in dollars. And govt checks in dollars. And anything else in dollars. And dollars in the safe. And dollars under the mattress. And dollars in the cookie jar. And dollars in your pocket of course.
Nobody notices becase the number of dollars doesn't change.
The value of those dollars is what changes ...downward of course.
Actually you do notice it when you buy something with those dollars. It takes more of them to buy it.
But you don't blame the Fed. You blame the seller for raising the price.
Feng Shui, bitchez!
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-06-04/housing-bubble-pop-alert-colony-pulls-ipo-market-conditions-blue-mountain-rushes-cas#comment-3625410
More like "Divine Wind" actually.
Banks, house flippers and house "inwestors" don't buy furniture.
For the trailing four quarters, I show an increase in profits for the Furniture and Home Furnishings sector of 20% year over year.
Something's not matching up here.
Furniture sales are off the bottom where they were a few years ago, but we have reached the peak of this cycle and will need another recession before we move higher.
Check to see if you see an increase in profits, or an increase in earnings per share.
Share buybacks with 0% interest rate borrowed money will raise "profits" as long as you define "profits" as earnings per share.
More cheap crap from China that has been excessively marked up. Have you been to a furniture store lately? Most of the stuff is made out of particle board or cardboard!
You can thank Furniture Brands International and W.G. "Mickey" Holliman for this. This sell out bought up many of the smaller furniture companies in the early 2000s and transferred the manufacturing to China. Of course, the prices were not reduced to reflect the new lower labor costs (and new shitty quality). There are a few brands left here (Century, Harden, Baker, etc.) but they aren't cheap. Then again, one used to buy nicer, quality furniture and keep it for decades.
… the y/y chart is misleading. Being around “0” right now only means the rate of sales is identical to last year, no increase or decrease… and if last year was very strong it means the industry is just fine at that rate of sales. On this type of chart, the line could go flat for years at “0” and it would be fine as long as the sales at that level gives them a profit…
The problem is with ZH… (I posted this earlier about housing)
IF ZERO HEDGE LOSES ITS EDGE, THE ONLY THING LEFT IS “ZERO”.
(Never mind the long enough timeline)
I’ve been here for a while as a member (before that, as an observer) and I have a bone to pick…
The reason the Bernank has been crowned here Chairsatan is because of his involvement into every market imaginable, directly or indirectly, and his success in distorting those markets in favor of what the CB deems “good”.
Had he not been successful he would have been nobody. The anger of folks here (with some losing their livelihood because of his actions) is a testament to his effectiveness at achieving his goals.
So… if reflating the housing bubble (right or wrong) will give the ultimate “appearance” of total CB (and government) success by pulling Joe Average from underwater, pushing others into a positive equity position (so they can use their houses as ATMs again), fixing the banks balance sheet and sending the whole country into economic euphoria (utopia)…
YOU REALLY THINK HE’S GOING TO FAIL AT THAT NOW???
Doesn’t matter how much you hate the new normal… ZH was always about accurate depiction of the financial reality and the intricate elements at play. The constant drumbeat of housing collapse in recent ZH articles has me concerned… there is plenty of room for a massive bounce before it all ends badly. Remember SPX. And if the bounces don’t count, there is no point in reading ZH since the destination in a long enough timeline is zero. Why bother…?
Rant off/
We caught it the first time. You don't like a certain post (housing), don't read it.
There is plenty of evidence that says your argument is wrong. And saying ZH shouldn't cover a rotten, fraud ridden, corrupted new housing bubble is perposterous.
And btw, I don't remeber ZH ever saying a housing collapse was imminent. I see them showing the real facts. Isn't that why we are here?
...
Thanks for the clarification… and taking the time.
people are house poor. My kids buy used furniture for themselves at salvation army and goodwill. Cheap--and then they refinish the furniture as a project.
Here in Florida, investors are buying up properties to rent out because the rents are higher than the 0.2% they get on their bank deposits.
There was a Flicker of activity in my area winter 2012 but now nothing...zero...nada...zilch...nicht....it's quiet. The realtor says it's because of "the economy" and "the high mortgage rates."
What else can we apply besides logic to help this chart along?
ALCHOHOL - lots and lots of ALCHOHOL!
Make mine a double, neat, with one "h" please.
I misspell this word too.....and for the amount I drink..I should know how to spell it....
It is the the growing Spartan lifestyle where people buy new houses, but sit and sleep on the floors.
Does "housing" include tents and refrigerator boxes?
Decour by Craigslist
Do FEMA camps count as new homes?
Do you really need to ask that question? Of course they count.
Fema camps are now called Cities. Get with the program
A housing recovery walks into a bar with a pig....
<BANG> - it was an iron bar of reality.
The pig continued to eat at his trough.
Is the pig smearing on lipstick and whispering to itself, "Gorgeous"?
Falling prices.
"Furniture? We don't need no steeenking furniture!"
Habitat For Humanity Thrift Shop, bitchezzzz!
The hedge funds are buying up houses faster than the Chinese are building high rises for the peasants. Neither will see any tenants other than the little 4-legged kind.
stateside
Roaches have 6 legs.
Most of the "tenants" here in Florida are actually the 6 legged kind and soon to be of the cyborg variety it appears. That is unless the SPCA has their way and protects the pests that Orkin, et al, have been doing their best to eradicate for centuries. You just can't make this shit up.
Please stop this ride, I very much want to get off now.
I was just reading on Marketwatch( i know i know) but have to see what proganda news is spewing, even they are reporting foreclosure are up again 20% in Florida from the previous month. That is how you know its bad! I dont know what the hell do with my $20k i saved. Seems like saving is pointless.
Only one thing matters.
Not money. Not gold. Not rents.
Calories.
Find some farmland. Buy it. Pay a farmer to farm it by sharing crop revenue.
Why not stock up on (randomly) sleeping bags and propane and batteries? We don't know what the cost of anything will be, if crisis occurs, but ONE crop growing on some land is not going to save you. It will make you very VERY dependent on demand for that crop, or you have to be a big fan, of lettuce, potatoes, raspberries, etc.
Basically you want the ability grow a variety, and have some livestock grazing.
Ultimately, the one's experiences will be highly dependent on location (so the mobile or early movers may avoid carnage to a large extent), IMO.
China has her ghost cities. America has her ghost furniture.
Go do the right thing and pay off some debt today.
we don´t need chairs as we are all dancing around the circle as the music is still playing....and they have already pulled the chairs out......but when the music stops...then we will try to buy them...
Another fabrication from BTFD.
theres a lot of overcapacity in furninture, and each time someone has to change homes, the furniture is jettisoned. its a lot like the auto market, the average three car consumer, has a lease car (limited miles) an older car they own, to keep from running up the lease car miles, and the rental car, when they fly to their destination and then drive somewhere. some people use rental cars when their lease car has run out of miles. congratulations gm you sold four or five cars to a consumer who needs one. housing isn't much different, how many times shares do you own? how often do you stay in hotels? and they want to market more housing space to you, in order to work off this inventory, there needs to be two garages for every car. so the housing recovery is really a matter of marketing. tired of sitting at home? buy a few more homes and change them like you change furniture. overcapacity eventually trumps everything, there's too much furniture, too many cars (see Bob Precter, Two Jaguars), and too many houses.
Fuck furniture. We use cardboard boxes.
Glue on a few paper cut outs and presto, a new dining set.
When the housing market peaked back in 06 my friends in real estate would talk about how people would buy these big houses, but then they couldn't furnish them so they would all buy nice window dressings and close the curtains.
I tell the wife not to buy curtains. If the neighbors don't want to see me naked, they should shut their shades.
Up next the fed buys furniture backed securities.
FNBS...that sounds about right.
....lol...coffee shoots out nose
bullish...........moar spewage....
+1......................got wipes
with HOPE you don't need furniture
I go to estates sales and auctions... cheap cheap cheap.
For the longest time Steve Jobs only had 1 piece of furniture
Everyone models themselves on Steve Jobs.
y/y charts are often misleading.
Here's a chart showing total furniture sales back to 2000.
http://www.economagic.com/em-cgi/data.exe/cenret/nrt4422nsa
Furniture store sales are on a continuous uptrend but only back to 2003-2004 levels.
flattened
http://www.economagic.com/em-cgi/data.exe/cenret/nrt442sa
According to cnbc, past six months has been a housing recovery.
According to furniture sales data, past six months has been only investors (and a few suckers) buying homes.
Deduction, its not really a housing recovery.
Wait till Ocare kicks in. That downturn will become a cliff.
Ocare might be the final nail in the economy. I'm hunkering down for 2014, I believe it'll be chaos.
Here is a non-misleading Y/Y chart: furniture sales compared to new one-family home sales.
Probably just using empty kegs for tables and plastic milk crates for chairs in their newly purchased McMansions.
This has to do with the falling lumber prices, me thinks.
Is this in dollar sales? It would be interesting if there was a way to look in terms of units... although doing that for furniture would be obviously problematic. The above chart of housing coult just be telling us that the Case Shiller went up then it went down and now is going back up again.
Don't be confused. 'People' are not buying houses. 'Investors' (or 'idiots' if you prefer) are buying houses. Maybe to rent, maybe to flip, maybe to launder money, maybe just because the Fed is buying the MBS up as fast as it can be written.