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Nikkei Slides After BOJ Minutes Released
We are trying to remember when the last time the BOJ minutes were important for global risk assets, and are drawing a blank. That's how messed up the financial markets have become. That said, here are the highlights from the BOJ's May minutes which appear to have spooked the Nikkei some 10 minutes ahead of the open.
- HIGHER VOLATILITY MAY ACCELERATE JGB SELLING - Remember the "VaR shock?"
- CHINA ECONOMIC RECOVERY WEAKER THAN EXPECTED - Now it's China's fault?
- L-T RATE RISES DUE TO WEAK YEN, HIGHER OVERSEAS RATES - And higher overseas rates due to weak yen, also known as a Circular iteration
- CAPEX HOLDS KEY TO JAPAN ECONOMIC RECOVERY - That of the US too, and sadly there will be no CapEx under a centrally-planned ZIRP regime
- FLEXIBILITY OF POLICY SUFFICIENT ENSURED - By daily jawboning
- FEW MEMBERS: BOJ SHOULD WATCH FED POLICY EFFECT ON JAPAN YIELDS - We have several non-lemmings
- ONE MEMBER:MUST KEEP FISCAL DISCIPLINE TO ENSURE BOND STABILITY - And a dissenter
And perhaps that quotes that spooked the market:
- ONE MEMBER: TIMELINE SEEMED TO BE INCREASING BOND VOLATILITY - i.e., the longer it goes on, the more we lose control
- FEW MEMBERS: BOJ SHOULD WATCH FED POLICY EFFECT ON JAPAN YIELDS - Get to work, Mr. Chairman
Nikkei down 200 in minutes:
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They dont know what they are doing.
And neither do we.
No one does. Its just fucked up.
Just remain calm. Hearing that Bernanke intends to leak another rumor tomorrow, about slowing bond purchases while simultaneously accelerating them.
We all just need to have more faith in bankers [that ripped off and perverted the entire financial world] and remain calm...and things will work out.
Their volatility indicates a Japanese traders may be smarter than world counterparts. Perhaps.
For the last 25 years, they've seen how well it all works. But I hear there is a new hit song out that extols the virtue of Abenomics...so...at least they got that going for them this time around.
Cdad we talk occasionally. You've been a great teacher. It's safe to assume you sleep one hour mor than I do.
Why is it that no-one want's to do their homework?
Central Bankers solving world monetary crisis
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=56Ue0SOTwpA
Sociopathic criminal types typically have little in the way of work ethic.
I think I have sussed it.
What we are seeing is a reverse rocket launch. Forget everything you know about watching rocket launches, this baby is'nt struggling in to the sky on a thunderous column of fire..........this one was launched from way up high, and it is pointing straight down..........so we get a gravity x rocket engine = fall speed........
Going to leave a big hole in the ground.
well this should be good for another 180 point move in the us tomorrow
Why didn't these idiots get Ben to vet the minutes first?
Penny stock...and poof, it's gone
Folks who covered their shorts today at the close might be kicking themselves tomorrow.
If the BoJ signals its intent to limit QE to 2 years, the markets will take that very badly indeed. Such a program must be 1) open-ended, and 2) extremely vague about when it might be time to end it.
The BoJ really is proving itself exceptionally bad at managing investor expectations:
http://nipponmarketblog.wordpress.com/
And neither do we.
BTFD. The carry is cheap, and the BoJ minutes were telegraped days ago. (old news) The trade is technically over bought on S/T charts.
Crude is at resistance. If it breaks through, maybe because of let's say a war, it will enter into the realm that has precipitated down turns in the past. Deflationary events such as a Neikki crash might stop that. So what will they choose, soaring gas prices and they get to hold their little Syria event, or sacrifice the Neikki and try to preserve the pretend recovery.
My guess is WTI soars, the Nikkei and yen get a Fib bounce, then the world goes completely to hell in two or three weeks. Of course my outlook may be a bit clouded by the dreams I've been having that tell me to stock up on more food and water purification kits, rather ominous feeling they were.
Off to another gun show this weekend.
Correct...and I'm not saying that because I am short the Yen against a basket of currencies....
The BOJ last did a bonsai 10/31/11 - the Halloween surprise.....a Sunday night market opening Yen slaughter....
They are up to something......sneaky bastards....
Japan is trying to practice Beggar thy neighbour economics. Not without surpise the neighbours are not going along with it.
beggar thyself
At what point does this damn thing blow up. Something really doesn't seem right here. I haven't been around the markets as long as some of the others, but this volatility seems absolutely insane. Usually, this kind of volatility exists right before a major market crash. So does this mean that there could be a major crash in the Yen?
They're giving back most of the gains they've had over the last 8 months.
Don't get distracted by the volatility. Yes, it's high, but the game is the same as it was when they announced Abenomics. Will the money-printing work (as it has temporarily in the US) or will the increase in bond yields bankrupt them faster than they can print? Japan is still the canary in the coal mine. They're still BY FAR the developed nation with the highest debt/GDP, a rapidly aging population and no growth prospects anywhere on the horizon.
I am sensing another "faster than freefall speed" moment.
Time for the cheerleaders to start grinning beaver.
Checkmate in 5. No "black swan" required.
They have lost control. This is no joke.
I'm wondereing if it has to do with the turn of events in Syria? No nuc's and the possiblility of no oil? Sir, could you show me where the EXIT is?
the fucking nikkei could be down 7,000 points tonight and I would not give a shit at this point.
Fonz, this is nothing more than momentum traders milking the trade. All of the sell stops have been taken out, (usd/jpy) through 97-94. There are huge buy stops above.
Traders dont realize that an 100 pip move on 1 minute chart is nuts! 100 pips on a $100k contract just made you $1k in seconds.
I love taking peoples money.
If anyone is going to do it, I am glad it's you. I talked to my buddy in credit today. He said he made his numbers for the year in the last 2 days. He is loving life.
I am in a different world then you are. This market is brutal. Coupled with cnbc giggling all day long now that they are finally admitting that all data is up for sale to the big boys ahead of time and if mom and pop don't like it they can have fun with their ING 0% savings account.
I may have mis-stated my thoughts Fonz. The point I was trying to make, was how much I appreciate yourself and all of the contributers on Z/H for we few holdouts to share our thoughts.
For instance there are some traders that bought usd/jpy without looking at the hourly chart. (due for a retrace)
They will close their trades, and not add when the price action takes off.
Yen is there a point where actual economic fundamentals actually kicks in? Because I think the frustration on here is that it these crazy moves get presented to them as something other than technical moves.
We had this talk a couple of weeks ago Fonz. We discussed fixed income, and our obligation to Clientelle vs yield.
Do you submit and sell into the equity tidal wave? IMHO Absolutely not!
I have the deepest respect for you not doing that Fonz.
Can you do some money market (currency) ETF ideas to appease your investors. Yes.
regarding currency etf's...I use a combination of MEAFX and MERKX in many portfolio's for conservative clients. I have also anchored down many portfolio's with PRPFX which had worked well until recently.
This is rough though man. It's rough because over the last 12 months, anyone (as Tyler has pointed out repeatedly) who manages money and has half a brain has been acting like a human and been getting their ass handed to them by the index. People will put up with that for a while.....
Good job Fonz. In all honesty I'm not familiar with MEAFX ,MERKX, . I have a bit of understanding with a buddy that does fixed income, e. PRPFX. You're 100% spot on. (It's rough)
I looked at the hourly, weekly and more importantly, monthly charts on the Yen pairs before I decided to buy in, in small lots for another round of Yen weakness.....and it's going to come.....
Last Thursday's after the European close afternoon of some fuck hedge fund/whatever slicing into my trades....
However, I did not sell out - only parially, to remove any pressure and ride this out.....and I have my buy stops in place....
Clients are all aboard....they love this actually...as their accounts doubled on 10/31/11 - the last time the Japs pulled a Pearl Harbor on the markets....
I'm glad we have at least one resident-expert on Forex. I understand the principles, but not how traders play in that world.
Ah, so you are a drinking man. 8:30 is a good time for Gin & Tonics. Kind of old school, but I'm an old school kind of guy. If that's not your style perhaps a nice Bourbon & Branch (rocks optional). The later the night, the darker the alcohol.
Agreed, Nikkei going round-trip to 8 months ago concerns me little. The S&P..... different story. I have Budweiser longnecks for that. And an ancient can of "Billy Beer" saved up for that exact moment when I realize "the big one" is actually happening.
FUCK. Get. Me. Out
the illusion
is multi layered.....
be here now..
It's still up almost 400 points. Daily fluctuations like this are not exactly a good way to instill confidence to the mom and pop investor. That is if there are any left.
Remember Goldman is long again...
* Japan #1
* NIKKEI 800,000
Didn't they close that trade??
Maybe four old guys playing koto's having their ball sacks shaved will do the trick?
Our markets will be up cause its Friday, pm in the red...
Please do not worry.
Nikkei ~3% up, that should be good for another 1% on the US markets tomorrow.
I'm disgusted and I need a break from this...
I've been saying we would all go insane before anything substantial happens. I may lead the way.
I'm still trying to wrap my mind around the concept of a "Jobless Recovery."" So if nobody but people in the government and a few bankers have jobs then those workers are paying their own wages out of their own wages and OH! Silly me! I forgot they print their own pay......yeah that'll work. Know if I could just wrap my mind around the concept of "government worker"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=56Ue0SOTwpA
Futures down 200, but the market itself up 300 at the moment? Am I reading that right?
At least I finally caught the afternoon ramp job on SPY.
what a fucking joke the boj is.
also, im done with -115 pt losses on dow.
im getting greedy, i fucking want japan type sell offs on wall st. just let me wake up and have u.s futures down over 200 pts. i hope something insane happens overnight that rattles the globe
Maybe this is affecting jap traders
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-2340988/The-EYEBALL-LICKING-cr...
Don't short this market while the USD is in liquidation. Simple rule of thumb. The HFTs only care about EUR moves. Japan is an isolated basket case of bond yields spikes. The Fed will increase money supply and swaps to BoJ.
It's a centrally planned market. Till it blows up...
Who has the power to smak(sic) down usd/jpy 150 pips on the [1 minute chart]? China is fuking with Japan after a 3 day holiday.
See Yen, that why you are a good trader. China is the cause of Japan's crash/yields etc. I was thinking about companies in China, foreign that is, bet on that China this year will confiscate foreign assets in China and maybe even Africa re: Brazil tensions
http://money.cnn.com/2013/06/13/news/economy/europe-china-steel/index.html
http://blogs.reuters.com/ian-bremmer/2013/05/28/the-underappreciated-ten...
Thanks for the articles Chump. Every time I discuss a trade, the fake money front runs it. (That is my intention)!
I was very explicite' earlier.
" I said " "BTFD"! I not only shorted the crosses, I also added to base positions. (I'm net long the crosses)
The Chinese are simultaneously selling usd)> vs yen and aud. That explains the spikes in eur & gbp.
Thinking out loud.
And what does China getting out of US treasuries tell you? Almost there Yen, almost there.
Cross collocate it against Chinese purchases of Aus beef / asset classes and so on, for all classes. Run it: Chinese asset buys 6 months, non-US countries. See the pattern yet?
Aurora, you are on it!
Now ZH just posted a UST panic update. I wrote somewhere on here yesterday that we could be faced with a UST/global bond panic, would also explain the USD selling going on now. China is following the 36 stratagems to a T. This is not market anymore, it's a chess-game. China will go all out trade war with EU soon. http://www.presseurop.eu/en/content/news-brief/3871591-europe-china-trad...
This is economic warfare being played out.
Chump I can't link it but what do u make of the article on marketwatch right now "China EU deal could be a game changer". I feel like i've seen that regurgitated for a few years now. but it does not fit the global trade wars narrative. Is it a bullshit piece?
Andy's article. Desperate cry against the inevitable. China is going all out. Goggle: China/EU trade war. They are going to tear France a new one, pretty much the whole EU. Faber recently mentioned that the new China PM is anti-west. I think this ties back to Japan being allowed (ok'ed by Europe and Obama) to manipulate three markets: FX, stocks and Bonds. When China was always slapped down as FX manipulator (for trade etc). This is their payback
So, I don't like China, but I wouldn't f*ck with them
trade war is nothing new here...
"The past 12 months have seen a quiet, wide-ranging assault on the commercial level playing field. Governments have found ways to routinely favour domestic interests without provoking the ire of trading partners. Artful governments found no need to openly flout WTO rules either – instead, they used the wiggle room in existing rules and, if that wasn’t enough, employed policies not well disciplined by multilateral trade rules. Little of this showed up in traditional monitoring that was designed – like WTO rules – to tackle the protectionism of yesteryear. Less than half of recent protectionism involves measures for which data was collected on systematically before the crisis." [Evenett, 2013]
China doesn't play Chess, it plays GO.
Do a GREP, I've told you this multiple times.
I respect your thoughts, Aurora Ex Machina.
Let's leave ( well enough alone)
Pip Pip. I'll not be so direct in future.
I have no skin in the game at all. Skin = potential flaying, so I keep out of it. Sad, really: could have been a b/millionaire! (Those who watch what I say may profit; those who seek to control will get burnt - and even then, they're not seeing the real QM strikes. Reality Baby, let's change it).
The Nikkei is an asset for political extremists.
The Nikkei is an " Wanabe" WWII follow through.
I said the dollar was going to sell off. It's going lower!
[IMG]http://imageshack.us/a/img839/4245/v9l.png[/IMG]
'Commodity currencies should benefit from (USD and CNY) weakness.'
catch that falling knife time? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EUJ5lbKggEo
With all the crap going on in the world,I feel that Gold should be around $2500/oz. If I had any I would not sell it,but if I did need to sell,that is what I would ask,or take a walk. WHY IS GOLD SO LOW IN AN UNSTABLE ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT? Someone on Wall Street is shitting themselves. Syria.Japan. This doesn't end well.Someones position is not covered.What is that saying everyone uses? WHEN THE TIDE GOES OUT YOU SEE WHO HAS BEEN SWIMMING NAKED....
buy the dips, yesterday i told you to buy the dips when nikkei down to 124xx and now you have a nice profit
With perfect market timing, you could have made 35% on the round trip in the Nikkei 225 over the past 2 months. However, I don't believe this is what Abe and Kuroda had in mind when they initiated Abenomics and QE:
http://nipponmarketblog.wordpress.com/2013/06/12/the-35-nikkei-225-round...