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Time For Abe To Start Worrying About His Approval Rating?

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Up until now, Japan's six month experiment with Abenomics has resulted in consecutive months of record trade deficits, soaring energy costs, rising staples prices and a jump in bond volatility and yields so dramatic it led to consecutive halts in the Treasury market and the bond market window slamming shut for corporate credits. It has not resulted in a jump in economic output, in capital spending, and an increase in wages: the three key things needed for a sustainable and viable recovery (despite projections that 6-12 months in the future all shall be well, and the BOJ hiking its economic assessment almost on a daily basis).

Yet all of this was ignored for one simple reason: the Nikkei was soaring, and when the stock market has nearly doubled in 6 months, everyone is by definition is happy. However, in the past three weeks things have changed drastically, with the Nikkei now solidly in bear market territory, and the USDJPY unable to catch a bid to save its life. Which naturally brings up the question: has Abenomics failed?

Impossible, Abe's fans will say: he has barely had a chance to explore his policies. That maybe true, but one major problem with Japanese society is that it is very impatient when it comes to its politicians. In fact, the median tenure in office of each of its last 10 prime ministers is precisely 419 days, or just over 1 year. And Abe is already six months into his term (his second term, of course: let's not forget he quit his first stint as PM after exactly 365 days due to diarrhea). What is worse is that the key variable that has kept his approval rating high has been the stock market: worse, because the stock market is now in freefall, and with few favorable things Abe can point to in the economy (recall that his entire policy is based on a stock-market driven wealth effect - no Nikkei ramp, no wealth effect, no inflation), he suddenly finds himself in a support vacuum.

So where is Abe's approval rating in the context of all other recent prime ministers? Courtesy of CLSA we know the answer, and it is one which if mean reversion works, spells lots of pain in the immediate future for Abe at the polls.

Six months in and Abe has the highest approval rating of the past 8 prime minister! Forget the wealth effect - talk about the ratings approval effect! Here is the take of Chris Wood from CLSA on this divergence:

It is the case that Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s approval ratings remain high in terms of the opinion polls despite a recent slip downward. Thus, the latest Nikkei poll conducted in late May showed that the approval rating for Abe’s cabinet fell from 76% in April to 68% in May. That is still 13ppt higher than Koizumi was after an equivalent time in office (see Figure 15).

But what goes up, must come down: first the Nikkei, and then Abe's approval rating. And as the Nikkei goes, so goes, for better or worse, the popularity and approval of both Abenomics, and of Abe himself.

So what happens to the great global reflation experiment and the freebie $75 billion (or nearly double the Fed's) monthly liquidity injections from the BOJ should there be an unexpected and "unmodeled" departure at the very top? After all, it won't be Abe's first time he has resigned his PM post.

And if Abe is too busy worrying about other things, just what is Bernanke's Plan B? Because if the Fed tapers at a time when Japan is forced to end its idiotic reflation experiment, and the global liquidity tsunami is suddenly cut by more than 50%, then just how will Bernanke support the S&P500 wealth effect - the last and only indication that Bernanke's policies have not been a complete and utter disaster.

 

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Fri, 06/14/2013 - 15:30 | 3659173 Clueless Economist
Clueless Economist's picture

Abe was a tyrant and the cause of the War between the States.

Fri, 06/14/2013 - 15:35 | 3659190 kliguy38
kliguy38's picture

But he held the Union together for the bankers

Fri, 06/14/2013 - 16:29 | 3659323 nope-1004
nope-1004's picture

He actually was a kamikaze pilot.  After bombing the USS Cleavin in '45, he swam to shore.  Was helped by some head hunters on Gilligans Island, nursed back to sanity, sailed back to Japan where he became President with the highest DISapproval rating of all time.

Cheers to Abe!

 

Fri, 06/14/2013 - 15:31 | 3659177 reload
reload's picture

Well he got to the end pretty fast, Ben has had a good run in comparison - which is why he can not wait to waltz into the sunset and leave some other fool holding the unpinned grenade.

Fri, 06/14/2013 - 15:35 | 3659193 El Viejo
El Viejo's picture

Maybe the Japanese are a little more aware.

Fri, 06/14/2013 - 15:44 | 3659212 bank guy in Brussels
bank guy in Brussels's picture

Important factor is the upcoming election in Japan, the upper house of their Diet or Parliament, on 21 July 2013.

After that Abenomics will really cut loose, unfettered and unchained ... and then we will really see an experiment for the books

Indeed, the Japanese people are aware, they know they need to do something radical

The Japanese schoolgirls in short skirts dancing for Abenomics, covered by ZeroHedge, will tide the public over till then

One should never discount the influence of Japanese schoolgirls

Fri, 06/14/2013 - 16:17 | 3659293 Kiss My Iceland...
Kiss My Icelandic Ass's picture

 

 

"Indeed, the Japanese people are aware, they know they need to do something radical"

 

Hmm. Why don't they try CAPITALISM for a change ? Works quite well if you let it do its thing.

Fri, 06/14/2013 - 15:53 | 3659217 Kiss My Iceland...
Kiss My Icelandic Ass's picture

 

 

"Ben has had a good run in comparison - which is why he can not wait to waltz into the sunset"

 

For his sake I hope he has a well-defended compound in Paraguay.

Fri, 06/14/2013 - 15:32 | 3659180 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Well he better crank up the printing press real soon because the ``senate`` elections are very soon (in july).

Come on, instead of $75 billion a month, print $200 billion a month... go full krugman, aka full retard.

Fri, 06/14/2013 - 15:35 | 3659192 Clueless Economist
Clueless Economist's picture

I endorse your wise post.

Nobel winner

Professor Paul Krugman

Fri, 06/14/2013 - 15:39 | 3659198 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

As an imaginary P.R. guy myself, I say it's all about the name perception so just start putting 'Honest' in front of Abe....should turn that aproval rating frown de otha way 'roun.

Fri, 06/14/2013 - 15:39 | 3659201 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

what is bernanke's plan B?

Ask him at Jackson hole.

Fri, 06/14/2013 - 15:54 | 3659234 pragmatic hobo
pragmatic hobo's picture

in monetary relativity, ... if everyone is printing then that means effectively no-one is printing. The past instances of countries digging out of their economic ill by devaluing their currency and exporting their way to economic health no longer applies.

Fri, 06/14/2013 - 16:10 | 3659266 NipponMarketBlog
NipponMarketBlog's picture

 

 

The approval rating survey was conducted "in late May", i.e. before the market had fully tanked, so we should expect the rating to have dropped even further by now.

Also:

"...at a time when Japan is forced to end its idiotic reflation experiment"

This simply isn't going to happen. They can't back down now, and they know it. If things don't go to plan (quickly enough) they are left with no choice but to try to do more of the same. It is simply too late to try to reverse course. See this for details:

http://nipponmarketblog.wordpress.com/2013/06/01/japan-has-now-reached-v1/

Fri, 06/14/2013 - 16:07 | 3659272 UK debt marsh
UK debt marsh's picture

That chart shosw Abe (2) being more popular 6 months in, than any other prime minister.

70% approval rating - he's got bigger things to worry about.

Fri, 06/14/2013 - 16:35 | 3659336 EclecticParrot
EclecticParrot's picture

This just in:   Issey Miyake's fall collection will feature ankle-hugging skirt lengths exclusively.

Fri, 06/14/2013 - 16:45 | 3659357 Satan
Satan's picture

"let's not forget he quit his first stint as PM after exactly 365 days due to diarrhoea)."

It's funny every time!

Fri, 06/14/2013 - 17:48 | 3659521 asteroids
asteroids's picture

I suspect theft on a massive scale is being accomplished due to Abe. Imagine you could telegraph to your friends when and how much you will intervene in the market. You could be making billions.

Fri, 06/14/2013 - 18:56 | 3659706 bugs_
bugs_'s picture

While the members of the Deflationists Lounge are still miffed about Deflation being referred to as "a monster" we are sympathetic to Abe's plight.  We'd just like to say that approval ratings seem to be subject to inflation and Deflation too.  Abe's clearly got a lot more Deflation on his hands than he thinks!

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