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WTI Crude Tops $98 - Highest In 9 Months
Amid the Syria debacle (or growth 'hope' if you are a true believer), the price of a barrel of WTI crude oil just topped $98 - its highest since September of last year.
The bad news for all those that 'consume' is that this level of crude suggests the price at the pump will be hitting $3.80 - that elusive P/E expansion-ending level - very soon.
Charts: Bloomberg
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More muppets getting scalped?
Quadruple top- or seasonality/war play?
Feel lucky punk?
Looks moar like an upward continuation congestion pattern to me. $200 a bbl anyone?
Was going to ask similar: Is that a top or a reverse head and shoulders?
'Gas will be hitting $3.80'? WTF world do you live in, it's been over $3.80 here for weeks.
thats a .40 cent discount where I live...............
€2.76/ liter or about $9 a gallon here in Italy...
3.22 regular in my area of Texas. For Exxon
With a Wally World card, I'm paying $3.06 in Arkansas!
I was just visiting Detroit and Gas was $4.25. Kick 'em while they're down.
WOW, those poor fucks...
$4.29 - $4.50 in Chicago. It's funny because I recall watching a post-apocyliptic movie starring Craig T. Nelson several years ago and as the throngs were wearily marching through the streets in a super green house effect heated climate, a sign at a gas station read $5.01 for regular. LOL We're almost there and you are in Chicago if you have to buy premium.
$5.08 here. God bless Canada.
Gas at all time low demand, with prices pushing all time highs....another master stroke of genius from Our Overlords at the bank.
What makes you think that they have *any* control over the situation?
The game is over and the rules have changed, Bennie B and the Boyz are in denial over it because the alternative is unfathomable....
You may be right on that one. In the hierarchy of The Oligarchy, Big Oil is likely ABOVE Benny B and the Boyz.
The only way out of this prison for most of us is the breakup of Big Oil and the TBTF financials. The breakup of Standard Oil brought energy prices down a hundred years ago and it could do it again.
Maximum market caps of $50 billion or so with NO board or effective ownership intermingling for any oil or financial company would have an impact on competition.
I don;t disagree with your hypothesis for dealing with corporate malfeasance, but the IOCs lost their ability to shape the the global oil market back in the '70s....
Take away the tar sands and Exxon can't even replace its reserves going on 10 years now ... Only the SEC allowing bitumen to be classified as oil saved their ass...
Exxon can replace their reserves by purchasing them on the exchanges just like they did when they bought Mobil. They can also drill deeper like the Russians do. The Russians seem to be keeping up. I read recently that Russia is the world's LARGEST OIL PRODUCER now. They've passed the Saudis. Their EROEI must still be OK or they would have run out of money by now, eh?
Strringing together a few random facts does not an argument make....
PS Exxon has not been able to buy reserves on the NYSE floor, last I checked, they took it up the ass by overpaying for XTO (which was primarily a NG company) which leaves me to believe that you are probably one of those guys that gets fooled by shills talkin about BOEs....
And if you don;t know what BOE stands for, you really should simply STFU before you completely remove all doubt that you are a blowhard fool.....
So now you've stooped to a new low -- claiming that I don't know what "BOE" stands for, eh? Do you have any evidence to back up your claim?
Since we're on the subject of off-the-wall claims, allow me one, OK? I claim you don't know your ass from fat meat. Prove me wrong (if you can).
So, you're saying oil is just going up all on its own? We know that isnt true.
Do you really *know* that it isn't true? Somehow I doubt that...
BTW, the latest figures from EFS and the Bakken suggest that things are starting to roll over, the sweet spots have been drilled.
Bumpy plateau
http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/report/global_oil.cfm
Indeed, now let's see that data plotted against the world population over just the last 50 years.
Unless, of course, you live in the Chicago area where 3.80 would be welcome relief....
You will get relief when some downed refineries come back...
Edit: http://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Summer-holidays-for-Indiana-families-are-delayed-for-the-time-being-as-motorists.html
and from elsewhere
7+ billion (and growing) all competing for a better standard of living. Oil remains the most fungilble source of energy (burnable calories) and commodity chemicals on earth that can make that quality of life happen. Don't expect global demand to decrease any time soon unless thousands fusion reactors suddenly come online or those 7+ billion liabilities are cut back to under a billion.
Hedge accordingly.
And you can bet that Big Oil will NEVER allow thousands of cold fusion reactors producing too cheap to meter energy. That would be like allowing someone to give away an effective cure for cancer.
Follow the money!
Please, put enough smart resourceful engineers out of work and you will be surprised what happens. Since when has anyone been doing just what is "allowed" anyway? Where the fuck have you been? Let me guess, you also think we have "free markets" too?
You guess wrong. I would NEVER suggest we have "free markets".
Put enough smart resourceful engineers out of work and you will be surprised at what that does to the unemployment insurance deficit.
Oil companies don't want any more competition from cheaper energy sources.
The universe is full of matter and energy. In fact, as far as anyone knows, that's just about all it is full of. It's up to the SURVIVING ORGANISMS (I don't know if that's us) to figure out a way to exploit that matter and energy.
No shit sherlock, but again, if I had to bet on who or what the "surviving organism" would be, I'd bet on the skilled engineer over the "swipe yo EBT" sheep every fucking time. Everything else is fucking noise. unemployment insurance is just part of the "bread and circuses", if it can't be delivered, it won't be. no point in even talking about it.
You bet on skilled engineers. I'm betting on cockroaches as the surviving organisms.
It's a little known fact that the NSA have cold fusion reactors, quantum computers, SHA-256 reversion, and perpetual motion machines all entirely working in their labs.
That's not what the engineers I know at NSA are saying.
I thought my inclusion of perpetual motion machines made it rather obvious I was being facetious...
Unless you believe in Steorn, of course.
Federal agents are enroute to your home as we speak. I don't think their internet intelligence gathering devices understand sarcasm.
How exciting, although they might be a bit out of their jurisdic#`%${%&`+'${`%&NO CARRIER
There was a stealth sarc flag your radar missed...
Cold fusion is a fantasy, as is over unity power, tesla power, etc. If there was a free energy source, and a technologically and economically feasibile power translator device, we would have it already, especially with the age of information.
There simply is no viable alternative to petroleum. Cost aside, as a an energy source, there is nothing else that is as energy dense, portable, scaleable, or versatile.
This brings us to the cost aspect. The cost of fuel is driven almost entirely by supply and demand, not tertiary causes like QE, or inflation (there is none).
Supply has plateaued, while demand continues to surge, hence, a supply squeeze and surging prices.
Gas is 3.89/gal here, and it costs 50 bucks to fill up my car for the week. I can't sustain this on a personal level. The cost of fuel has driven up the price of the products I produce. I can't afford to keep the prices low, but it turns out that no-one can afford to buy my products at the prices I have to charge.
This is no WTF moment. This is NOT inflation. Inflation is the combination of a rise in money supply AND a rise in wages and productivity. Energy shortfalls that first express themselves in economic terms as a supply/demand bottleneck may drive up prices initially, but such a price increase is not by definition inflationary. As available money is sucked into the fuel price/ supply shortfall vortex, this means less money for other things, and thus, it is essentially a deflationary dynamic.
This is a deflationary dynamic in its infancy. Soon this will be a swirling inverted tornado, sucking everything into its downward vortex to the bottom of the pit of destruction.
Deflation? There is no such thing and no society or currency has ever collapsed (in a "pit of destruction" or otherwise) because their purchasing power was too strong. Stop using that bullshit progressive eCONomic language, it's a trap.
mess nonster,
Inflation is not a single definition, like "increase in money supply and wages".
Inflation can be brought about by shortage supplies with the resulting demand overpowering causing prices to rise to an equilibrium to ease demand. That has been called demand pull inflation.
Alternatively, when you flood the market with dollars, thereby devaluing existing dollars, the average worker can't afford to live so demand more pay. This can be called cost-push inflation. Another version of cost push inflatin is ZIRP and how money flows to hard assets, driving commodity prices up (input costs) also causing cost-push inflation.
In addition, you have the FED monkeying in the markets, trying to keep commodities down to signal low inflation. The definition is not that simple when the market is not allowed to operate as a free market.
And I agree with LOP: No nation, state, society, or government has ever toppled because of a strong currency. Inflation is coming - it has to. There is no other alternative. To extend your thoughts, the inflation coming will be in reaction to the heavy deflationary forces that will appear. No central bank wants deflation and will react accordingly to kill their fiat.
MOAR FACKING FRACKING BEOTCHEZ!
Oil at September 2012 levels, pms not so much. F... the miners!
Oil/coal/natgas have always been a reserve currancy of sorts. In order to actually do anything in any economy, you need energy, period. Soon enough moonshiners will be the new bankers as ethanol is easy to make and burn.
fuck you bernanke!
That's right. Those miners have already been ass backwards nationalized. Produce, and no profit for you bitchez!
The Bernank wants inflation and he will get it.
This is NOT good for those of us who live in the Great Lakes region of the US.. As if we weren't slammed enough for 2 weeks over 'refinery repairs' earlier this month.
I've been watching those "Pure Michigan" commercials. You guys are living the dream!
Me, too. It's like watching CNBC.
Could it be that FORBES is finally starting to get it? First there was an article about declining EROEI and now this. Spend more and get less... Shales are like scraping a hash pipe for resin to smoke, you work harder and harder to get less...
Why America's Shale Oil Boom Could End Sooner Than You Think
My suspicion is they knew this all along, but that doesn't help in the sale of stawks.
Crisis management.
Nothing to see here, move along.
I just read that article yesterday. Great piece. We just have to look at things logically. If we aren't in trouble, why are we drilling miles down in the ocean? Why is Canada destroying their environment to stip mine bitumen? Why are companies dumping billions of dollars into fracking when the risks are so high?
Growth has to come from somewhere. If not, the snake begins to consume itself.
Whazzup?
Share any personal secrets with the NSA lately?
Everyday!
I've been riding my bike a lot. Someone chastised me recently and said riding my bike uses more energy than driving a car.
Strictly speaking they were correct as you burn more calories pedaling than driving... but somehow I don;t think that was where they were coming from....
It makes you wonder why they would even bother drilling all those shale wells if it's so unprofitable. And why do their bankers and shareholders allow it too?
With gasoline consumption down by HALF -- I'm still struggling with that concept -- and production up so much (especially NG liquids, i.e. gasoline), we're going to run out Real Soon Now? Why not just increase the gasoline to $10 or so. That should help the poor ol' oil companies, eh? At least it should increase their CROCI. (The "C" is for Cash.)
According to the dieoff.org projections of 10 years ago, the corner gas station tanks' are already nearly empty and you had better FILL UP NOW (while everyone's asleep at the switch and you can).
http://dieoff.org/page224.htm
Your meme is getting a bit long in tooth!
You lost credibility when you confused NG liquids with gasoline (moreover, demand for which is not down by half)...
You try to create a strawman by implying we are going to "run out"....
As far as making money, I am pretty sure that the band on the Titanic was still getting tips as the hull filled with water....
Are you claiming that NG liquids DON'T CONTRIBUTE to gasoline supplies? If so, then you're (again) the one without credibility. BTW, I did NOT make any claim that NGLs were SOLELY GASOLINE, (and you accuse me of creating strawmen!).
Not down by half? What about this?:
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2013...
A reading comprehension course at the local high school would help you follow these boards better.
Here is a direct quote from your post above
So either you don't know what i.e. means or you are simply obfuscating after being pwned...
My guess is that it is both... Since you are reduced to weasel words and semantics in an attempt to maintain face, I think the discussion is over. Thanks for playing though....
"weasel words and semantics in an attempt to maintain face"? Frying pan call pot black, eh?
You're welcome.
Aren't you going to comment on the down by half, dipshit?
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2013...
Why don;t you convert the units on the graph and then compute what fraction of US refining capacity the plot represents, i.e. do some real critical thinking and analysis instead of simply making shit up to fit some presupposed view of reality...
Sorry buddy, the more you type, the worse you look....
Why don't you? Don't you know how?
Still recommending your own posts, I see.
Clutching at straws I see...
Just for the shits and giggles I'll give myself a greenie on my post directly above which will make two up votes and once again demonstrate that you are full of shit...
All that proves is you could have at least TWO accounts here like most shills do.
We're fine. Helecopter Ben will be arriving momentarily to fill up your SUV.
Between high gas prices, illegal aliens getting a pass, low wages and jobs leaving the country it's over for any growth in the US economy. It's been over no matter how much elitist economic wonk Mark Zandi and the rest of them spew rainbows and unicorns. It's all lies all the time.
I can't decide who I want to punch in the mouth more, Zandi or Liesman.
I'd rather punch Zandi so you punch Liarman.
Forgot to mention.... Now that the Seaway pipeline is in full swing, the Brent WTI spread is vanishing and WTI is getting pulled up in price... Market forces, bitchez...
everything goes up will come down.
What happens to Egypt when it can no longer "rely on the kindness of strangers"....
Fuel-short Egypt faces long, hot summer
Maybe the Israelis can run a pipeline over to Cairo and "give" them some of their new-found gas.
What do you think?
What do I REALLY think? I think you're an oil company shill and a dumb shit to boot.
You are 0 'fer 2 in the above...
In this thread you are below the Mendoza line, i.e. 1 'fer 7 at last check..
You gotta bring your A game if you are going to play with the Big boys...
PS An oil company shill would hardly make note of Exxon not replacing their reserves (after all *that* is the big secret)....
I'll never let you keep score again.
Tell us WHY an oil company shill would NECESSARILY not make note of Exxon's not replacing their (reported) reserves. (BTW, do you remember what Lee Raymond had to say wrt that and "Peak Oil"?)
I'm sure our wonderful government will offer to take in the refugees when Egypt collapese, just like Syria:
http://www.wnd.com/2013/06/syrian-refugees-to-be-resettled-in-u-s/?cat_o...
Gasoline is $4.25 here right now. We have some of the highest prices in the country.
Like lambs to the slaughter.
Headline on VeryWellHiddenAlternateNews.com: "Big Oil fucks sheep. Details at 11."
<---- Wave of buying at $100
<---- Wave of selling at $100
A call for resistance at 97 earlier this week - that didn't last long.
http://bullandbearmash.com/chart/wti-oil-daily-falls-marginally-resistan...
More inventory, less consumption, price continues rising - wave 2 up is completing.
The interesting thing about inventory is that the USA is still importing 7.5 to 8.0 million barrels of oil per day. Why are refiners doing this if inventory is high and demand for gasoline is low?
Keep in mind, though, that if the USA imported 6.5 million barrels per day our inventory would decrease quite rapidly.
It's a mismatch in the infrastructure at the root of the problem. The land locked oil from the Bakken and the Dilbit from Hardisty cannot reach the gulf coast refineries....
Roughly 8 mmbpd of capacity out of 17 mmbpd is on the Gulf coast...
http://www.eia.gov/petroleum/refinerycapacity/refcap12.pdf
Deflation everywhere and rising input prices. YeeeHAWW!
And look at the beginning of that first chart starting from June 2012. The summer rally is about to get under way
I'm confused. Isn't the 'United State's slated to be the number one producer of crude by 2014?
Nyet...
Don't be so hasty.
Let us first define :
"Number One," "Producer," and "Crude."
Urine...
John Galt and by inference, Mitt Romney, at least acccording to Paul Ryan...
Feral's Serfs attempt at debating me on energy issues....
Does that cover it?
Thanks for the capacity Pdf. Flakmeister It will make good reading material this weekend.
My pleasure....
Crude futrues options expire on monday. The CLN13 future expires on Thursday. I expect a hard smackdown on Monday or thurs.
make 'em take delivery and get rid of paper oil, paper gold, etc...