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Chart Of The Day: The Future Doesn't Look So Bright
While the headline print of this morning's Empire Fed beat expectations, as we noted earlier, the underlying characteristics were an unimitgated disaster by any measure. The current business climate, reflecting more a rear-view-mirror-based world was weak but the future expectations index - which should be more important for an equity market that supposedly discounts the future - had some significant headline risk. There is however, one chart that sums up the confidence of the CEOs in this nation. Capital Expenditure expectations (the measure of reinvesting in organic growth producing assets - as opposed to buybacks and shareholder-reacharound funding) plunged at its fastest rate on record and printed at its lowest since the collapse in 2008/9. It seems, to us at least, that the future is not so bright.
Charts: Bloomberg
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And the market has morning wood. I suppose on expectations of a new Viagra shipment on Wednesday?
1646 is a given. Watch to see if it stays capped.
The only thing that is staying capped is the 10yr. Bernanke will print 250 bil behind the scenes while he is tapering if necessary to maintain the illusion that he controls rates.
Fonz, Dow correction over....I'm hungry.....
It's definitely over. Data all coming out to the upside? Did you see homebuilder confidence? You would think those guys build homes if you did not know otherwise. Bernanke going to give the street some calm soothing words.
It's too bad about the big fucking thing that's coming. If not for that, we were on our way.
What's coming???
The Great Implosion™!
I AIN'T OVER TILL....
http://www.goreloverz.com/uploads/1/4/8/6/14866666/885122_orig.jpg
Damn - hoping that was my mother-in-law..........
Is the fat lady merely an indicator that signals the end? Or does she actually bring about the end herself? Does the end still happen if the fat lady is dead? Did Bernanke murder the fat lady?
That's not Al Gore.
i see we have demented psychopaths reading zh. pretty fucked up.
Bad data is good for the markets right?
Yes and 'good' data also good....no matter how pathetic that data may be.
Who needs CAPEX when you have monopoly money?
we have a new 5 euro bill that REALLY looks like monopoly money.
They're just out and this weekend I was in a sigaret store where the clerk refused the new note :) it couldn't be real :)
no kidding, it's really really like kids money.
And the funny part is the second mention of the word euro on the bill... it's in greek....
http://static4.businessinsider.com/image/50eef8c9eab8ea5478000000-564-401/the-new-5_discover_banknotes.png
Borrow Moar chickenshits.
'What's in the box?'
-David Mills, Se7en
'And the eye-in the-sky is watching us all.'
-Ace Rothstein, Casino
'To be modern only means to fill new forms with eternal truths.'
-Joseph Goebbels
As a trader, there is time to reflect ‘tween the flickering ticks, often in the wee hours. Here in the Great City there is tranquility when the air is sepia; the darkness balanced by the illumination necessary to keep the cameras in focus as they watch the over-served stumble home whilst the bunnies litter the green space. Actually we have a bunny infestation here, but no one seems to mind. After all they are cute, cuddly, and as such of course harmless. The signs referencing infestation always refer to the rodents, many the size of rabbits. Both critters carry disease no doubt, but there are of course no proclamations with big red Xs superimposed over Thumper and his kin.
For the gnostic the wailing and gnashing of being spy gamed is about seven years too late. The Federales mirrored the San Fran Carrier Hotel back in ’06 and have never snooped back. They hack us for our freedoms dontchaknow. The digital binding of the left hand to the right foot, the requisite dissection of ones’ avataristic soul, with mercy dispensed as necessary in the name of national security.
The comics of course living up to their name in discourse, oblivious to any other amendment other than the second. Snowden, Manning, and the like, you are no Daniel Ellsberg, for as we live through a bad sci-fi movie from the 70s the concept of whistleblower is being queued up as requiring a minimum sentencing standard. Pay no mind that the self-immolation of a Tunisian monk that purportedly initiated the Arab Spring was motivated by the Wikileaks disclosure of corruption in their government and direct your inattention to the fact that Snowden’s girlfriend is kinda hot eh?
No one asked us if we wanted a credit score. No one will ask us if we want a citizen score. Alas such a metric is undeniably coming to a job interview, college application, mortgage document and dating website near you. When the spooks gave away the basic algorithms to business awhile ago assuring that there was no bottle for that genie, the ubiquitous commercial application of that military tech became inevitable.
At the end of the day the data intelligence complex is a job creation program. Oh certainly the usual suspects over time will be rounded up so our solons with flag pins suitably shined can trumpet the necessity of it all for there is data gold in them there hills; a digital homestead with free spoils .
Youth may be for the young but youthful indiscretion is now a thing of your past, available into perpetuity at the touch of the button by any opposable thumb that finds you within six degrees of nefarious separation.
Frankly, I feel sorry for the rats.
Love the narrative. Reads like a good piece of literature.
Webster Tarpley, that you?
This is fantastic news. It means CapEx can only go up......right?
That would be true of the 2009 level, but not of todays. The data is not reflecting CAPEX but rate of decrease of CAPEX. spending, something analogous to velocity. Thus velocity times CAPEX gives you momemtum, therefore we have a very large momemtum down in CAPEX spending, equivalent to a train fully loaded going at high speed and hiting a forest, it will start decelerating very rapidly leaving behind a disaster as it discharges its kinetic energy and slows down. QE is adding fuel to that trains engine as it slows down, basically only adding fuel to the fire, but in todays twisted logic assuring the markets that the FED won't be able to slow down its monetizatiion despite the technical reasons for doing it that are building into the system at an ever fater pace. I can see the technicians at the different FEDS presenting analysis after analysis warning of the dangers of financial instability and the politicians dismissing them because they don't understand the real math behind the rsults and asking for the proof that the threshold for instability has been crosed when it is mathematicalky impossible to provide that proof and happily leaving the meting feeling well about how he outsmart all these fool mathematicians that don't understand pragmatism... So sad...
Market up because Bernake is going to soothe the market.
Rumor is, if Bernanke "handle's it right" Angels will shit another 100 points on the S&P.
Hey Fonz I know we contemplated what our futures as paper pusher will be when this collapses. I have come to the conclusion that you have a bright future in stand up comedy.
Your ability to tell the future is going to come in handy.
Right on cue...
LONDON (MarketWatch) — Crude-oil futures advanced on Monday, as investors continued to worry that violence in Syria could spread to other countries in the oil-producing Middle East.
$100 this week- $120 within 2.
Crude? Wow.
Where would that put WTI? $135?
I saw a headline that Saudi Arabia is goint to give missles to the Syrian rebels.
So what's next? Iran's freedom fighters blow up a pipline in eastern Saudi Arabia near the Bahrain border?
Iran sure would like higher oil.
$120 WTI by July 4th sounds about right.
I'm out of the loop. I thought Iran just elected Ronald Reagan. I thought it was morning in Iran.
Capex is out of style, layoffs and buybacks are way more productive.
Buying and selling the slaves. Well, at least, buying and selling the suscribers.... I mean buying and selling ... @#$%.
Who needs to expend capital when the Bernank will print you as much as you need? Just keep laying people off, take on more debt, pass through dividends,and buy back stock in an illiquid market. It's a no fail business model.
That's the genius of the Bernank- he will NOT fail as all others before him at simply printing $ to paper(pun intended) over massive economic problems.
A true example of another "paper hanger".
Boldly going where his predecessors feared to tread. Bernanke. Print until we run out of digital bits.
Captain Kirk himself trembled at such audacity.
All expectations for the future have been cancelled until further notice. Have a nice fukkin day !
On the contrary, the future does indeed look blight.
What's with the truthiness from CNBS?
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100820487
as my best friend tells me all the time , "no one is promised tomorrow; live for today" ...... i've heard that so many times that i want to slug her & tell her to stop it & go buy some gold&silver&foodstuffs cause with an attitude like that she is going down with the ship.
"Don't worry. Be happy." - Swan song of denial.
Hakuna Matada!
Or something like that.
pods
Homebuilder confidence soars to 7 year high as the recovery takes shape. If you build it they will come.
thats the chinese motto, right?
Saw this picture of the tides in the Bay of Fundy and then thought about the economy in the near future.
http://www.canadaphotos.info/picture/low-tide-halls-harbor-bay-of-fundy-nova-scotia-877.htm
Came in from work this afternoon and the fucking wife has bought a new dog, a little Jack Russel off one of her mates.
I swear the little fucker has benspanks beard, same shape and colour.
I feel like kicking it to death but wont of course, but for years now I have to look at this little bugger and see bernsplanks looking right back at me.
I'm sure its fucking smiling when looking at me mind.
:-(
i really cant take this fucking shit anymore.
we were red on friday, and over the weekend, although there was no economic news, there was the news with syria, how the u.s is getting involved, and if anything, u would think the markets would be a little rattled by that.
but no, not only does that not matter to this ponzi scheme, but we are fucking up 1 plus percent on absolutely nothing. what the fuck is so good in this economy that deserves a 1 percent plus up day globally? NOTHING!!!
We all know that on wed, there is no way bernanke flat out says he is tapering or anything to god forbid rattle wall st, because god forbid those fuckers are caught off guard. we must keep feeding these pigs.
he technically never needs to take his foot off the gas, and this is starting to scare me. rather than trading on economic news, we are fucking moving in either direction based on the words of fucking douchebag.l
when this mans term is up, if not before, this man needs to be handcuffed and put in jail for the rest of his life, along with alan greenspan,jamie dimon, lloyd blankfein, and all of wall st, and obama must be impeached. this is fucking terrible what is happening to our country and nothing is being done about it.
all expectations of hold til next equipment failure.
one old crappy H.P. duel core, one candy bar phone, home sold, one dusty flat sceen and a blue horizon
of uncluttered freedom to roam without the roaming charge...
So the question is...can confidence be a suitable substitute for wealth? Can we eat rat burgers while convincing ourselves its actually ribeye?
"Can we eat rat burgers while convincing ourselves its actually ribeye?"
here is your answer.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3FP8SJBsl0A
Now see what you've done. I will never be able to eat those again!
That is how they massage inflation, so they can con everyone especially the vacuum tubes into thinking it is all perfect
As long as there is a big POMO, eCONomics or funnymentals ...do.... not...... matter
Philly Housing Index breaks 12 month channel support - again.
http://bullandbearmash.com/chart/philly-housing-index-daily-closes-chann...
Recovery? Well if you believe this morning's Empire Fed number, then I guess the recovery is on.