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Empire Fed Headline Beats Despite Plunge In Most Indicators, "Labor Market Conditions Worsened"
And yet another baffle with absolute and unbelievable BS economic number is out, this time the Empire Fed index which magically spiked from -1.43 to 7.84 on expectations of a 0.00 print. We say magically, because besides the headline number, virtually everything else was down! To wit: New Orders down, Shipments down, Unfilled Orders down, Delivery Time down, Inventories down, Number of Employees down, Avg Workweek down, should we continue? The Empire Fed report admits as much: "The general business conditions index—the most comprehensive of the survey’s measures—rose nine points to 7.8. Nevertheless, most other indicators in the survey fell." Almost as if the NY Fed apologized for having to make up headline numbers.
For those following the labor market, here is the punchline: "Labor market conditions worsened, with the index for number of employees dropping to zero and the average workweek index retreating ten points to -11.3." In fact, the average workweek was the lowest since July 2011. Good thing that by now not even the most hardened permabulls pretend any actual fundamental underlying data matter. So let's just assume that the weather in June caused the NY Fed headline to diverge from all the underlying data and call it a day.
After dipping into negative territory last month, the general business conditions index for June recovered some ground, rising nine points to 7.8—a sign that conditions had improved modestly. Roughly 29 percent reported that conditions had gotten better over the month, while 22 percent reported that conditions had worsened. However, while the general business conditions index was positive and higher than last month, many of the survey’s other indicators were negative and noticeably weaker.
The new orders index fell six points to -6.7, and the shipments index fell twelve points to -11.8. The unfilled orders index dropped eight points to -14.5, and the delivery time index declined three points to -6.5. The inventories index fell three points to -11.3, extending the decline in inventories to a fourth consecutive month.
Labor Market Conditions Soften
The prices paid index was little changed at 21.0, pointing to a steady level of input price increases over the month. The prices received index climbed seven points to 11.3, indicating that selling price increases had picked up. Labor market conditions were weak: the index for number of employeesfell six points to zero, indicating that employment levels were flat, and the average workweek index declined ten points to -11.3, a sign that hours worked fell modestly.
Six-Month Outlook Continues to Weaken
Hewing to the pattern of the past few months, indexes for the sixmonth outlook declined, suggesting that optimism about future conditions continued to wane. The future general business conditions index inched down to 25.0, the future new orders index fell nine points to 19.8, and the future shipments index fell five points to 20.2.
So much for the facts. And now, time to unleash a rumor that Bernanke is having bear flank stake for lunch, which as everyone knows is good for +100 points on the DJIA.
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I base almost all my trading on this particular data point. I have to say I'm not sure what to do.
short gold and buy all the risk you can........ or ask the squid they will tell you LOL
if we go by the Fed's own recognition that it has a "dual mandate" (inflation AND jobs--and obviously this report says ZERO inflation) then yes...this number is "bullish" in the sense that the whole "tapering" thing was a big pile of bullshit. obviously you still don't want to be long municipal bond debt which has been absolutely annihilated this year because the political class simply has no clue how to fund anything other than through "bailouts to bankers" which the bankers just take and recycle to the Fed who then go out and purchases even more treasury debt. so sure...buy gold too. but this is one big circle jerk for zero economic growth the way i see it. STILL. Given that "global growth" has MAYBE bottomed i really don't understand what all the excitement is about here.
lol. Double barrelled. Thinking banzai should do Ben with double barrelled assholes ready to squirt.
"Do you feel lucky...? Do ya? Punk?"
Underneath show the consumer with fists full of toilet paper (USDs of course) already covered in shit and a few more not shit covered yet holding rolls of toilet paper. Then he can have Obama and the congress wayyy up high over the top. With O'Bama sniffing up the smell saying, "God how I love the smell of shit covered citizens in the morning."
Now you know how a freaked out algo feels.
Fonz,
My God, I'm sitting here this morning watching this too - what the hell do you do with this? I read the report - the ZH article is right: It's an absolute disaster. How... HOW are they coming up positive with almost every indicator (maybe all of them, I don't understand two or three of them) in that report showing negative?
It's a recovery, god damnit!!!!!!!!!11111111
We all know its the stimulus during the lean times sequester overcompensated by the first families $ 100 million being spent on their round the world vacation and $3,000 per night suites.
Talk about trickle down economics from the oligarchy to the peasantry in other countries making its way back to New Yawk
Fucking miracles, I tell ya, miracles
Indeed. About 2/3 of the money created since 2008 is sitting at the Fed on deposit by bankers. Such a great example of how trickle down economics does not work.
knuks ur never happy...they cancelled the safari because according the white house they have limited funds...not because they were going to have snipers to shoot any terrorist cheatas or monkeys or gazelles that got out of line...
Please don't taper me bro.
Actually, it's the pollen in the air that are slowing down the economy... GRASSPOLLEN!!! GODDAMN YOU GREEN GRASS!!! YOU WHERE ONLY SUPPOSED TO SHOOT!!!
http://www.goldmoney.com/gold-research/alasdair-macleod/the-nonsense-behind-state-intervention.html
Both Keynesians and monetarists believe that increased government spending, or more money injected into the economy, is sometimes necessary. The intervention is in the form of unfunded government spending, artificially low interest rates to boost demand for money and bank credit, or a drive to make the currency “competitive” by lowering it. These methods have been tried unsuccessfully time and again, and they must be denounced if we are to understand our true economic condition.
The reason they don’t work can be summarised as both an oversight and a fallacy. The oversight is to look at only one side of a government spending proposal: a new bridge, hospital or school is a visible benefit. What is easily ignored is the cost, which is spread between many individuals’ savings and earnings. If these resources were not redirected, they would be available to consumers to spend as they see fit. This is important, because it is consumer demand that drives innovation and economic progress, not government redistribution.
The basic fallacy is to subscribe to ideas that are consistent with the cost of production, or the labour theory of value, and to try to shoe-horn it into the reality of consumer price subjectivity. The list of economists who have made this mistake is far longer than those that understand the error, including Thomas Aquinas, Adam Smith, David Ricardo, John Stuart Mill and Karl Marx. It is the bedrock of socialist thought, which divides us pejoratively into the exploited and capitalist classes. The truth is very different: the consumer through his choices decides prices and what is made, and any producer that fails to respond goes out of business.
Therefore the contradictions start from the most basic level, and from there the errors multiply. Instead of abandoning cost-of-production theories, mainstream economists seek to subsidise producers, either directly or by monetary means. It amounts to a subsidy for businesses that would otherwise fail. Furthermore successful businesses are encouraged to seek subsidies and discouraged from redeploying their capital into genuinely profitable investment.
Through relentless government propaganda nearly everyone today believes that state intervention is a force for good, but the truth is very different. Government intervention amounts to reducing wages and destroying savings through monetary inflation, while putting prices up. Admittedly, there can be a short-term artificial boost from lower interest rates and monetary expansion, but this is quickly reversed when prices start to rise.
A reasoned analysis of the true effects of government intervention reveals the truth: it comes at considerable economic cost, disrupting economic progress and leaving us all worse off as a result. Is it any surprise that reflation has now finally ceased to even generate short-term benefits?
Well put Polo. Personally I can't quite decide whether the current gov't engages in what it's doing (unlimited QE et al) because they feel they have absolutely no choice - eg. that the economy and the markets would crash if they didn't - or if they are a bunch of moron fucktards. Likely, both.
A goverment and economy built on lies!
Baffle with bullshit, buy, buy, MOAR until all there is left is a toxic, radioactive financial wasteland.
No matter where I look there is basically nothing to buy that produces at reasonable levels to make the purchase and maintenance risk worth it. Its a sad day when the only place to go to try to make any money is the casino. And honestly I do far better at the poker table than anywhere else in these markets.
BEN can pound the table, buy until he becomes swollen like Willy Wonka's blueberry girl, but I will not be sucked into this crap.
What is funny and sad about this is that there are still $10's of Trillions of orphaned real assets that, until prices are allowed to drop, will do nothing but continue to 'rust and rot away'.
Good job BEN and Cronies, for screwing over the entire world, you fuck heads. Power and stupidity wrapped up in a single shitty loaf.
DOW propped a bubbleicious +110 gassy points to start off te week, George Lucas has nothing on the Wall St fantasy directors.
Cake and eat it too. Perfect set up for the fomc this week.
Empire index says economy is great but employment not so great. So bubble boy ben "may I have some more please"
If only I was ten feet tall I may be able to walk through the pile of shit that is this market, disgraceful is all I can say about the way the Ameican people are lied to and foolish is the people that believe this propaganda.
It's the new and improved Pravda-FED. Grain production up 40% Grain prices to rise by 50% due to excess supply. Unemployment drops 30%. Goverment announces opening of six new homeless shelters. Meat Rations to be increased 800 grams this month. Due to rail sabatoge all meat rations canceled.
"Roughly 29 percent reported that conditions had gotten better over the month, while 22 percent reported that conditions had worsened."
What did the other 50% report?
the other 50% reported they are doing fine living either on welfare or with their parents
Whatever it takes to blow a bit more helium in the stock market before it crashes.
Ed Norton, Honeymooners...Official BS Protector Helmet On!..
LOL:
blogs.reuters.com/macroscope/2013/06/17/this-was-really-eye-opening-for-me-feds-raskin-shocked-at-low-quality-of-work-at-local-job-fair/
These people are so naive and stupid. My God are we fucked.
Their reason to increase H1Bs. Cheaper temp employees from overseas to increase profits.
A negative, downward spiral for the US and a positive for Asia.
The US is becoming a Mexico.
Hey, rich lady. It may not make it all the way to you, but trickle up poverty is coming your way.
There was a famous general that marched with his troops because it told him of their fighting condition. Maybe there should be more of this informal data mining.
God and devil are in the details and most certainly not in convenient government statistics.
I can think of a few other eye-opening field-trips that might help her understand the state of the economy that might make for really interesting mornings. They might involve empirical data rather than the dry, hard stuff she usually surveys but it would put a face on all those numbers.
Long Smoke and Mirrors.
There is no exit plan for the Fed. They may even increase QE to 120 billion or higher/month. The Fed's about the only one buying US debt through it's member banks. Ponzi goes on until it the world snubs the US dollar.
All this talk of tappering is nonsense. It's just jawboning.
The Fed will just all the debt as off-balance sheet debt. Fantasy accounting continues.
It goes on until the US dollar spirals down to record lows.
I'd like to see a bit of 'Trickle-Down' ethical behavior and morality. If not, then lets just execute them....
" Headline news" brought to you by Empire Fed: Tom Brokaw here, IRS conventions (partys) are stimulating every sector of the US economy, thus the IRS will up their vanues and even invite the NSA staff to learn sqare dance and Gilligans Island style charades! Gotta love this Country, Oh, say can you see by the dawn's early light.........
K gotta go take my meds now..........
Just another day in the world of WTF.
This is a smokescreen in preparation of the taper! They need evidence to point to as proof of recovery...