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FT Joins The Fray: "Fed Likely To Signal Tapering Move"
It seems not only the entire developed world is sick and tired of Hilsenrath's "leaks" which have now become so grotesquely self-contradictory, not even Hilsenfollowers can make out the Hilsenfact from the Hilsenjoke. So it appears the Fed has now picked the FT as its interim pass through vehicle:
Ben Bernanke is likely to signal that the US Federal Reserve is close to tapering down its $85bn-a-month in asset purchases when he holds a press conference on Wednesday, but balance that by saying subsequent moves depend on what happens to the economy.
The Fed chairman has a double communications problem. Markets seem reluctant to acknowledge the improvement that is leading the Fed towards a taper of QE3. But they also appear to be assuming, incorrectly, that any taper means the Fed has become less willing to support the economy’s recovery.
...
A couple of complications exist. One is unexpectedly low inflation. Most Fed officials are sanguine about the drop in their favoured measure of core inflation to 1.1 per cent. Expectations of future inflation are holding up and a similar slide in 2010 did not end in deflation despite a weaker economy. So far, it is a minor factor in the Fed’s calculations, although it will weigh more heavily if expectations move or inflation defies forecasts and stays low.
The other complication is the rise in bond yields, triggered by the confused market response to a likely Fed taper, which has in itself tightened financial conditions. Market movements are unlikely to delay a Fed taper – but they are likely to make it cautious until it has got its message across.
Read the full thing here.
and the market's reaction...
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$5-15b/m taper in two days. To cool down the hot money. Market will not like this. Too many players still leveraged in no-taper positions.
Ben: "We may or may not do something or nothing."
psy-ops
It's like fucking a 6 year old girl, and we are the girl and Bernanke is the penis. "Daddy please stop! Your Bernanke is hurting me! I don't like this. Please stop!"
Bernanke is a child rapist just the same as Keynes was.
Keep printing in reality, jawbone about tapering to keep "speculators" from blowing the bubble too fast.
That's my bet on this one.
It's not even a guess. The Fed simply don't have any options now except print like mo'fo's while denying everything.
They'll be "tapering" furiously and in your face.
This process will be called "Benkake".
The FED should taper their signalling.
That b.s. like FED announcements is followed by the market shows what a joke the FED has made of the market.
They will probably taper temporarily. Gold and silver have already told us so by front running just as they did in 2008. Bond yields are already rising in anticipation. It's time scare the sheeple good again so that they will beg for greater QE and then the Fed can do what it would have done anyway with their blessing instead of their pitchforks. Hold on to your butts, and don't forget to buy that metal on the cheap before they put this train wreck into overdrive.
though they can't stop UST purchases, they can stop the purchase of new MBS (while continuing reivestment).
oldest sales trick on the books......get someone to reconfirm your point, if 2 people are saying it, in the buyers mind ,it must be true...
let's taper the noose around these reprobate's necks
The Actual 'T-A-P-I-R'
Gratuitous Deer In Headlights
bonus material: The Actual "Debt Clock" watched by The Fed, CONgress & ObaMao
Main difference is that Keynes liked 6 year old boys.
How many positive Dow points when Bernanke announces, 'No taper'?
I'm gonna say +277 pts.
In the spirit of Mr. Bob Barker, i'll say 276pts.
lol.. You may have been safer goin with 278.
Notice how this leak came on an +166 DOW day. Looks like they ramped the market so they could tell the muppets the bad news. Even if they reacted badly, they'll keep the market ramped until they forget, which is about 48hours. Looks like the muppets don't care. Pathetic volume today.
Contradicting signals on the taper - Gold down and US Dollar Index down. You would figure Dollar would rally on rumor of tapering and Gold tank but both appear as confused as everyone else.
Personally this feels like one of those highly anticipated events that in the end fails to "move the needle" one way or another.
Hope he's better at stock market Price is Right than the TV version.
Truth or Consequences, even.
Pat, I'll take the ceramic donkey $5,000.
Sounds right. And gold will be down $100, and silver down 80 cents.
+1 - Can't confirm or deny the presence or absence ...
all turds taper at the end. we either want this crap to keep piling up or want it to stop. i vote taper!
I'll believe in "The Taper" when the NAR says it's true.
And today's weather report is that it is going to snow unless it doesn't.
And if it doesn't snow today it is going to snow tomorrow, or at least one of these days... unless it doesn't in which the heat will actually get hotter making it impossible to snow ever, unless it does.
Always snowing on wall street....fucking brokers are addicts of all kinds. No taper...just a hard, hard landing.
I think it is really the HilsenFart, because it sure does smell bad.
LOL, pull the other one!
Taper.
If the FED tapers, and the government defaults due to 8% interest, exactly WHO would lose out?
Like WHO holds all this government debt?
The FED?
So the FED would slit their own throat?
LMAO.
pods
My thoughts exactly. Go ahead, let America default, fucking bring it!
The only way they would let this happen would be if a new currency deal was in the works (United States of europe sort of thing).
We have a "debt is money" system, sovereign debt must grow or the useless financial fucks are dead, again, fucking bring it!
The world is awash in paper promises with relatively few assets or collateral of real value.
Chinese ruler visited California a few days ago. Apparently, Ogolfer has already sold California to the Chinese.
You have 5 minutes to pack your suitcase.
Right. There are no sheep like chinese sheep. Big difference between theory and practice. We do enough business in China to know how to play the bribes in our favor, same in Japan. Saying you "own" something is one thing, taking possession of that asset is something else altogether.
"tools in the toolbox. tools in the toolbox."
'Tools in the box' strangely all resemble 10 pound sledge hammers.
getting every leader in the world to do your bidding is pure art i'm afraid. "all because you don't want to people to see you as you truly are." in the Age of the Internet no less! There IS no place to hide now! Now WE see you as YOU truly are too!
You are right, soon they will make us all slaves with their gold...
How would it look when they make their currency appreciates vs the entire world! Good luck to Japan which has Debt/GDP 200+% and rising in buying those paper promises...
FUBAR
Maybe the chinese are interested in buying Pebble Beach? Its seems the thing to do for people from that quarter of the world....
Hell, we will throw in Clint...
USDJPY up mkt down, what the heck boys, this is just crazy ...
This FT guy is not built into the correlation matrices ...
"If you fake the funk. your nose will grow."- Bootsy Collins, the Pinocchio Theory
Care for a 3:30 rebutthole Hilsenpuke?
no need to. this call goes against the ENTIRE market architecture...let alone what the market has been doing for...is it thirty years now? 130 years? "base upon what we're gonna make that one guy do for us"? hahahahahahaha. glad to hear they're out in public making the call as well. "betting the whole media company on it?" Or already have and lost? either one wouldn't surprise me in the least...along with all the other "taperists." what's next? a "i made you mister and i can break you just the same" moment? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZNaA7fVXB28
Or maybe FT guy is using Gordon Brown's breakthrough technology to intercept Ben's Blackberry live, while he is typing ...
"mmmmmust sssssave ooooour shhhhhhhort postion. mmmmmmmust sssssaave ooooooor shhhhhhort position." http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XDZ_lSJjgvk
what's awesome is they say taper and the ten year sells off, and these are rumors.
They say they are tapering 5 to 10 bil a month Wednesday and we are back at 2.30%
You are such an optimist. You really think it would only rise to 2.30%?
by the end of this week, yes.
My longer term forecast is a bit dicey. I see it going up to about 2.6ish during the summer and then back down to about 0.85% when the thing happens.
Sir you better buckle up ... those who don't think he'll taper .."ah buckle this!"
His words will taper like a bastard.
But Ben will not taper.
MOAR Jawboning Uncle Shalom!
ben will not stop. but when he does prepare for a nice bloodbath. economy is too weak to stand on its own. this is a rigged game.
I've got the feeling when Ben DOES stop, the last thing any of us will be worried about is a stawk index or a bawnd....probably be worried about 'how can I get home....is my family still alive....will I live to see tomorrow?' That kinda stuff.
Do I have red or white with Long Pig?
pods
Great pickup line....
"Hey baby, tomorrow might not exist, lets make tonight memorable"....
GOLD $1350 by tomorrow morning. Look at what is happening to WTI in last minutes of open outcry.
What are you now, the resident ZH COMEX apologist or do you always bad mouth gold?
Can we stop knocking the contrarians? Especially over prices. It's like being blindfolded on a roller coaster and insisting that you can only up.
They've been stealth tapering for a while now. They've been buying more than they've said they are buying. I believe the MBS purchases alone was closer to 60B. The stealth taper was to bring the purchasing back in line with what the numbers are they said there were purchasing. If I am correct the official taper announcement is to spook the markets to see how they react all while buying more than they claim to be tapering off by to mellow out the potential moves downward. Joe blow will see one thing and react a certain way while the primary dealers and inside information cronies will see and react differently since they are trading on different level of information and hft market moving rigging platforms than the rest of us plebs.
"Buying more" is not "tapering". What the fuck is this double speak bullshit?
Business as usual??
They say they are buying 45B a month in MBS securities but were really buying close to 60B. The stealth tapering going on now to get the purchases back to 40B a month. Same logic applies when they make the official taper statement say for arguments sake they taper down to 30B but actually don't taper at all. As long as the average joes don't notice perception is reality as far as they are concerned and the primary dealers trade unpanicked which in theory should minimize volatility in the market. Not only that they can slowly remove the heroin drip after inducing a placebo effect so the patient doesn't die or revolt as it is happening. As Keynesian as the FED is economically you don't think the smarter board members like Fisher aren't pushing Austrian thinking and the human aspects of economic isn't quietly being considered now since both sides on the voting board lose if the FED loses all credibility and in turn the whole western central banking system and it is also apparent that QE is exasperating the same problem it was supposed to solve to even the dumbest of the dumb who have PHDs.
I'll try to explain it simply in terms of heroin and withdrawal since it is the same damn thing just the heroin is the cheap money aka QE and the withdrawal symptom is market taking a shit. Instead of using a cheap money substitute like a methadone equivalent to ween the patient off the heroin and reduce the withdrawal symptoms that could be fatal if you went cold turkey or without a step down substitute during the weening process they are going to try a placebo effect. Tell the patient you are reducing the drip but don't psychologically the mind thinks you are withdrawing but the body gets a different signal keeping the symptoms from manifesting and possibly killing patient. Once the psychological adjustment is made then you actually reduce the heroin drip and in theory minimize the withdrawal symptoms.
I suspect they have no choice since they have no other cheap money alternatives they can use a substitutes or HQC and/or assets either due to rehypothication stretching the resources as thin as they can possibly be stretched now.
compelling argument, I could buy this - certainly no evidence (other than the cogency therein), but then what evidence is there of anything in this crazy world?
QE was put into effect because GDP growth was horrible
It is still horrible, and kept from being disastrous only by the QE.
No reason to taper.
It would be great to get this insider rumor trading info early. I wonder if anyone does? Hmmmm
so the market (whatever that is)....... is supposed to be "forward looking" .................................and the big money is set on a tapering call by bigbennybucks........... and the dow is up 100 points and firmly above 15,000......seems to me there is a hole in the theory that any tapering will destroy the liquidity fueled party known as the stock market.................so is this now pure madness??? that the Almighty Dow can now levitate without promises of MOAR?????......that it can survive on its own because Big Money now feels there is an actual recovery????.... and that if ben says taper....it must firmly corroborate the idea that the economy is mending?????? PERHAPS WE HERE AT ZH ARE THE FUCKING LOONIES????????
Please, when the open market operations actually stop, then there will be "tapering". Until then there is no such thing, just talk.
http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/tot_operation_schedule.html
Do you actually believe that schedule?
I believe it is moar, but the point was related to "tapering", complete bullshit, they are/will buy moar.
We are in comeplete agreement. There will be no tapering..omly the massaging of markets.
I believe the above argument regarding tapering as a method of bringing actual purchases down to meet stated purchases (and then repeating with actual continuing to lag stated) would be an example of massaging.
HFT dominates trading and doesn't care about anything other than what the opponent is doing.
Los Angeles could be nuked and HFT could elevate the market.
hft does the trading but not the investing......there are trillions invested in the market through mutual funds ( fidelity, vanguard, pimco), hedge funds, etc.........these investors continue to believe things are moving in the right direction.....they do have faith in ben.....and that if he says taper....that corroborates that view.........so im starting to believe we are all the insane ones here.......................
Kito thats bs and you know it. That "invested" money you speak of only gets to choose between stocks and bonds.
My TV everyday is invested between Dora the explorer and Lalaloopsy. That does not mean I am confident that I want to watch either. I just have no choice.
mutual funds can be heavy in cash................they are allowed that option.....but yes, i get your point.................
btw i took a jab at applebees in the other post, i made a point in stating "no offense fonz".... ;)
You could have quadrillions "invested" if you like, and if HFT continues to dominate trading, then only HFT defines prices.
You need to take a step back from the Old Normal thinking. There is no market.
Defines, or executes a programmed definition?
War in Syria = MOAR = QE
WTI loves it.
"but balance that by saying subsequent moves depend on what happens to the economy"
to which he added
"we must use the rear view mirror to steer this ship because we have no principles except to have no principles."
Tapering already started 4-8 weeks ago, otherwise we wouldn't be seeing those market moves.
Full halt to be done imminently
LMFAO lets fucking hope so im tierd of this shit
a market crash/halt/selloff is the only way they will be able to fund this god damn pig
did u see the thomas heonig article on her over the weekend regarding DB?
I think Hoenig is trying to tell europe it's their turn to sacrifice one.
I guess he was not worried about discretion.
nein mein herr, nein discretion at all
ekm, I think you're right. And I think it may have started even further back.
3-month annualized money growth has declined from 11.4% to 3.6% and most of the $ from the FED is being redeposited at the FED. The commercial banks are leading the way to tapering, not Ben.
As early as January I'd say
Roger that, hit it's high of 11.4% in early Jan, held it for about 4 weeks, and then started tapering off...
tapering means the QE dikk gets shorter n thinner!
OMG! Ben you're going the rong way!!!
What the fuck ever. The whole world is on pins and needles over what the banking overlords will decide as our fate? The decision is simple. What's going to rape the most wealth out of the system to keep the system going? As if that makes any sense. But here we are folks. I'm pretty tired of hearing how the rich are getting richer. No they aren't! They have more paper gains. So? What the fuck is that worth when the match is lit? We're ALL poorer, and it is NOT going to reverse itself until the CBs start printing physical assets and productivity. What? They can't do that? No shit? Whatever. Bullish!!!
Yea really, this 'rich r getting richer' is nonsense.....we're all just hurtling thru space on a rock that isn't getting any bigger.
You're on a roll with these last couple comments. Must have had your Wheaties this morning, (or a nooner).
They will be (are already) converting those paper assets into real assets (land, gold, standing armies, etc) as often as needed, and will get serious just as the entire thing implodes. They are looking for the perfect moment to rotate out of paper and into things, that's all.
That rotation will happen overnight. We'll all wake up one morning and they will own outright everything in the entire world that is made of atoms.
Come and take it, bitchezz!
How can I get me one of them "standing armies"? I need more tangible assets.
Poor Kuroda-san. His project has been hijacked, first by the WSJ and now by the FT....!
http://nipponmarketblog.wordpress.com/
This market move clearly shows that at least some people still trading the news (maybe it's only HFT left?). What confuses me is trying to figure out what exactly people are trading on -- this article says absolutely nothing, it's all hypotheticals, with one reference to some totally bullshit fantasy unemployment projection... It'd be great if someone tests how sensitive these algos are to actual data by providing us daily updates on what Ben is having for breakfast. Eggs and bacon = bullish?
pool PARTAY if the market drops over 200PTS!!!
Bennie is a gambling man and hedging his bets, with other peoples money.
Fed leaks- jobs Americans won't do.
Good cop-bad cop, that's all this is....keep everyone on pins and needles with this dumb routine about 'Will the Bernank stop flooding in free moneys hand over fist, do moar, or less?' All just nonsense bottom line extending and pretending another day.
But, but....Dick Fisher said....he's hawkish.
HAHAHA
Considering almost none of the money is making it to main st. anyway, the only group that should feel an impact is banks. Rates rising will hurt housing and given that these two areas are on the only ones providing GDP growth, what could go wrong?
CNBS keep talking about "Man of Steel" as market rapidly tanks, hah!
Ooops they heard me, break to commercial!
Barry called to tell them what he heard you saying.
Taper!
Let the whole thing burn.
Fizzle, Fade and Fall!
BTFD
So the markets go down and bond rates go up on a speculative article about FED tapering by the FT.
However, many in the MSM claim the marekts are not dependent on free taxpayer money from the FED.
Hmmm....
A changing rumor of a potential change in the rate of money supply change.
3rd derivative money supply. Sell sell sell sel
Ha.
it's time the fed take the ipad/iphone price out of their inflation measure and start putting in price of stuff people actually "have to" consume, like price of milk, bread, coffee, gasoline, rent, bus-fare, etc.
People talk about the price of gold. You do realise at the very end of the day gold is only worth one thing?
Its the value of your labour, thats all its worth, nothing more nothing less. Now lets presume you do actually work and do something constructive for a living rather than gamble with others worth and fuck them off with stupid 60-1 bets etc.
Lets say tomorrow morning these fucking parasites who rip the fucking eyes out of us producers find out their value, in human terms is worth nothing, what then? These fucking cunts who have us where we are at this point in time, what will they do? You think these fucking imbeciles can grow a garden? Work on their own houses? Have any idea about real life?
Thats why Syria has popped up. Its as fundamental as these cunts couldnt change their pants never mind do anything constructive for themselves. They think we were put here for that. Lets give these bastards a fright, never mind gold, thats where you lot loose me, its only a store of your labour, never mind that, lets make these clever cunts till the land, paint the walls, repair the roof, fix the drains, tile the kitchen, you know what I mean.
Lets make these fucking parasites work for a fucking change, instead of ripping the rest of us off.
Cunts
Inthemix96
Couldn't agree more. Throttle them by changing the games. Cancel credit cards, use only cash or barter if possible, cut spending, don't contract for loans, if possible ditch real estate "investments", reduce tax-paying. More at www.starvingthemonkeys.com
NO EXIT, STUCK IN THE MATRIX
The Bernanke Fed is realizing they are stuck in the monetary corner with NO EXIT. They began to mention the need for an exit in the spring months of 2009. That is when the 0% official rate should have been abandoned. Here we are four years later, and they are still stuck with no exit, precisely as the Jackass warned, forecasted, and screamed in print. The division within the USFed is becoming a regular story. Only the half-blind governors on the once august Board refuse to admit that USEconomic growth is a mirage. The brave governors have been more bold in recent months, taking a stance against the charlatan Bernanke, explaining the intractable position. The chairman has ably proved that liquidity cannot solve the current banking and financial problems mired in insolvency. In doing so, Bernanke has disproved his own PhD Economics dissertation, and has discredited his own lofty credentials with a Princeton seal. He is a sham, a Weimar agent, and a destroyer of capital. The hopelessly devoted paper mache craftsman is stuck in the Matrix.
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldenJackass/1370376300.php
Like a flock of starlings.
Not the smartest birds, but they benefit from always traveling by flock, with sudden group-wide movements (and those caught under their wing often have quite a cleanup on their hands). Then they land, scour the ground for worms for 2-minutes with herky-jerky motions, their speckled underbellies shining through, but can be scared away en masse with a simple clap of the hands. Strange, annoying creatures.
Oh, Look: it appears they're heading south . . .
Gadzooks, these feathered darlings are fickle ! They've reversed course again to the north, and appear to be making a beeline for VWAP, which is still rather far away, but I've never seen them fly so fast, so true ! By Jove, they might just make it before sundown.
On the way, they've been forced to dodge USD.JPY, which appears to be heading in the opposite direction, but in their haste they didn't even take notice ...
Taper and bail-ins, the new gameplan.
By Friday, S&P will be at new highs because there are too many lemmings paying up and willing to chase stocks to the moon. No taper until 2014 or even 2015. Who is going to support deficit spending? CBO said $650 billion for 2013...we are at $630 billion with four months to go. Benny cannot stop pumping the drugs to the markets. Less FED=higher rates=slowing economy=higher interest costs=more FED, not less. QE is the cheese, investors are the rat and Benny is the trap. Snap...blood and guts all over the Street.
Duplicate, sorry
They're buying 4.8 to 5.75 billion today, 06/17. Cash settles tomorrow.
http://www.ny.frb.org/markets/tot_operation_schedule.html
Operation Date1 Settlement Date Operation Type Maturity Range Expected Purchase Size Mon, Jun 17, 2013 Tue, Jun 18, 2013 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchases 03/31/2018 - 02/28/2019 $4.75 - $5.75 billionAnother Tuesday ramp is coming!
Who's gonna bet the market's going down?
Not me. I do have trailing stops between cost and current-low.
Tapering because US / EU economies have started self-sustaining expansion. Bwah Ha Ha!!!
Tapering because even Fed realizes that 1) They are getting less bang for the buck with each iteration and 2) bangs are going to wrong place since Banks are not lending only blowing bubbles.
Still believe Bonds will suffer less than expected as funds fleeing Equity have to "rotate" somewhere.
Somebody said something a year or more ago that made me think.
Are Bonds where they are BECAUSE of the Fed? Or are Bonds where they are DESPITE the Fed (blowing Equity / Commodity bubbles)?
They need to taper to send gold and silver 80% lower. Bear markets in both and soon to be in stocks.
We are getting quite close to the "Greenspam briefcase analysis". People were trying to decide what the market was going to do based on Greenspams briefcase size....
And that turned out well....