Which Of These 4 Markets Would You Invest In?

Tyler Durden's picture

We have removed the levels to protect the innocent but which of these equity markets would you be adding to today?

(Hint - one of these markets' sovereign risk has just been downgraded to B; one has inflation expectations of +30% for the next 12 months; one plans to double its monetary base in two years; and one is based on an entirely manufactured recovery in a key US industry thanks only to cheap money)



and if Stocks aren't your thing - then how about choosing one of these 4 bond markets?

(Hint - one is expected to take another serious haircut on its debt within the next year; one is the bonds of a nation expecting to massivley increase its inflation in the next two years; one is the most liquid safe-haven bond market in the world; and one is a nation that wonders aimlessly absent real government amid depression-like economics and unemployment)


All seems very normal eh?

Charts: Bloomberg


Market 1 - Venezuela - Caracas Stock Index
Market 2 - Argentina's MERVAL Index
Market 3 - Japan's Nikkei 225 Index
Market 4 - US Homebuilders

Bond 1 - Greece (10Y GGBs)
Bond 2 - USA (10Y Treasury)
Bond 3 - Italy (10Y BTP)
Bond 4 - Japan (10Y JGB)

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knukles's picture

I can't pass the test because there's no TelePrompter, cheat sheets or answers handy.


After all, I didn't write that quiz by myself.

flacon's picture

I know this. I studied it in my Ivy League University classes (Princeton Tigers YEAH!). "Buy HIGH, Sell LOW". It's never been a better time to buy since they are all high, especially that first chart. I got a 3.98 GPA and I graduated with Honours and two degrees, one in Economics and one in How To Win A Nobel Prize. 

El Viejo's picture

The Great OZ speaks on Wed???  Just in time to start the Dip and then the July Ramp before the August Crash.

macholatte's picture


Hey, man.   That's not a fair test. When you used the word "markets" I thought you were talking about Albertsons, Vons, Ralph's and Smith's. And isn't all that Wall Street stuff a casino?

BeetleBailey's picture

.....The June Swoon, followed by the July/August low volume, HTF zombie market...more buffoonery/lies/can kicking, then...


BACK from summer holiday (the squids of the banksta-gangsta woild).....and ka.....BAM...


we get another Lehmann-like ass-fucking, sans lube....

FL_Conservative's picture

Don't worry....the NSA will get you the answer.

EscapeKey's picture

the NSA will get you & the answer

Fixed that for you

SAT 800's picture

Good point. The Greek Bonds look pretty good; they're going up, eh? don't things continue to go up, when they've been going up lately? Sure. I think I'll buy some of those.

EscapeKey's picture

Everyone knows that Greek government bonds never go down.

Stackers's picture

Silly Alphamentalist,


ALL of course

screw face's picture

.....ummmm Bloomporn........moar please



Fuck the dip.....(except PM's of course)

Midasking's picture

The only way to win is not to play - Joshua... http://tinyurl.com/mem7o7x

SheepDog-One's picture


King Nothing's picture

Lets see judging by your charts this is about the same as taking all my life savings and dumping it on a game of roulette with only one spin allowed, and since I know I can't win all my money back, never mind make a profit I choose to do the only thing a sane player can do.




Did I win? obviously not but I has some fiats left :)

spekulatn's picture

I'm partial to the put all my eggs in one basket school for pikers.... so I'm adding to market1 baby!! Where'z my prize?

Dr. Engali's picture

Venezuela, Greece , Japan,  and the U.S and the answer is...I wouldn't invest in any of the ponzi schemes. I will buy silver and gold though.

l1b3rty's picture

How about sitting on the sideline in cash?  Is that "D - None of the Above?"


slaughterer's picture

I would not invest in any of these markets.  I would trade them though. 

SAT 800's picture

There are no investors. Essentially the question boils down to; what trade do you want to put on. Your answer will get a no credit.

Hundred Dollar Bonus's picture

Is Market 1 Bitcoin?  If so, I'll take two Windlevii worth please.

Schmuck Raker's picture

Market #1, "Pepper spray & gas masks"

kralizec's picture

Market 1 - Guns and ammo!

ParkAveFlasher's picture

Is this some kind of TA quiz?  Totally didn't study.

Cacete de Ouro's picture

War! When despicable diablo Cheney is awoken and wheeled out, war is not far behind....War! Stocks Up

Bonds propped up as a perennial backdrop..

Not too long before Dick Cheney visits Hell!

ebear's picture

Short them all (with other people's money) !!!

El Viejo's picture

Play the line and take your cut of other peoples money. The best way to rob a bank is to own one.

CPL's picture

Yeah...but even if you 'win' you lose holding onto a currency losing purchasing power while holding it on the down side.


Plus the usual risk with shorting stocks.  (the guy that owns them sells them under you or worse, infinite upward momentum from the printing press.)


Invest in gardening equipment, seeds and get cracking.

SAT 800's picture

Excellent! You win the Teddy Bear!

involuntarilybirthed's picture

We need  a sister market not tied to Wall Street or the SEC or Congress.  Something new, something different something trustworthy....................just needs some imagination.  Something quazi private out of the reach of current manipulators and regulators.

CPL's picture

Kijiji  -  Buy, sell, trade.


Only market worth doing business on with no transaction fees.

eddiebe's picture

When Ben speaks, the world listens.

youngman's picture

Where was this test in November 2012...seems a better time to buy some of these.....but that was when Obama was re elected....I could not buy anything...I was sick...

SAT 800's picture

I sympathsize with you completely; actually I'm not feeling too good today, either. Saxo Bank is running a video of two of their senior trading advisers talking to each other face to face; one says gold is going down to $1100 by the end of the year; the other one says it's going up to $1600. And that was the best they could do! I don't know either.

dkane's picture

When you say "invest" does being long PUTs count?

savagegoose's picture

market 1 = zero interest loans to banks

Bam_Man's picture

Please stop calling them "markets".

icanhasbailout's picture

adding for how long, in microseconds?

CPL's picture

nano.  Micro is a long time now.

are we there yet's picture

The famious comedian Will Rodgers investment advice: TO make a profit in the stock market you buy low and sell high, and if a stock does not go up then do not buy it.

Tombstone's picture

Market 5...The BernankeBushido Index...buy like Kamikaze!

NidStyles's picture

To be honest. #2. It looks like it's the most stable. Would wait for the turn around though.


Mind you I am just answering the question without looking deeper than the charts, in reality I would likely invest in none of them.

texas sandman's picture

I'll take "I'm Fucked No Matter What" for $1000 Alex.

A. Magnus's picture

Dammit, you were quicker on the draw with that snark! Great minds DO think alike, though...

Bennie Noakes's picture

What happened in May? Lots of those peaked in early-mid May and then sold off.

SAT 800's picture

Yes. That's the important part of the four charts. the US 30Yr. Bond Contract on the CME is down 10,000$ a contract since then. What happened was the "Great Bull Market in Bonds"; is over. Like John Clease's parrot; that kind of over. not just taking a nap.