• Knave Dave
    05/23/2016 - 18:16
    This past Thursday marked the one-year anniversary of the US stock market’s death when stocks saw their last high. Market bulls have spent a year looking like the walking dead. They’ve...

Which Of These 4 Markets Would You Invest In?

Tyler Durden's picture


We have removed the levels to protect the innocent but which of these equity markets would you be adding to today?

(Hint - one of these markets' sovereign risk has just been downgraded to B; one has inflation expectations of +30% for the next 12 months; one plans to double its monetary base in two years; and one is based on an entirely manufactured recovery in a key US industry thanks only to cheap money)



and if Stocks aren't your thing - then how about choosing one of these 4 bond markets?

(Hint - one is expected to take another serious haircut on its debt within the next year; one is the bonds of a nation expecting to massivley increase its inflation in the next two years; one is the most liquid safe-haven bond market in the world; and one is a nation that wonders aimlessly absent real government amid depression-like economics and unemployment)


All seems very normal eh?

Charts: Bloomberg


Market 1 - Venezuela - Caracas Stock Index
Market 2 - Argentina's MERVAL Index
Market 3 - Japan's Nikkei 225 Index
Market 4 - US Homebuilders

Bond 1 - Greece (10Y GGBs)
Bond 2 - USA (10Y Treasury)
Bond 3 - Italy (10Y BTP)
Bond 4 - Japan (10Y JGB)

Your rating: None

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Mon, 06/17/2013 - 13:48 | 3665319 alphamentalist
alphamentalist's picture


Mon, 06/17/2013 - 14:02 | 3665362 knukles
knukles's picture

I can't pass the test because there's no TelePrompter, cheat sheets or answers handy.


After all, I didn't write that quiz by myself.

Mon, 06/17/2013 - 14:08 | 3665372 flacon
flacon's picture

I know this. I studied it in my Ivy League University classes (Princeton Tigers YEAH!). "Buy HIGH, Sell LOW". It's never been a better time to buy since they are all high, especially that first chart. I got a 3.98 GPA and I graduated with Honours and two degrees, one in Economics and one in How To Win A Nobel Prize. 

Mon, 06/17/2013 - 14:45 | 3665513 El Viejo
El Viejo's picture

The Great OZ speaks on Wed???  Just in time to start the Dip and then the July Ramp before the August Crash.

Mon, 06/17/2013 - 19:02 | 3666225 macholatte
macholatte's picture


Hey, man.   That's not a fair test. When you used the word "markets" I thought you were talking about Albertsons, Vons, Ralph's and Smith's. And isn't all that Wall Street stuff a casino?

Mon, 06/17/2013 - 19:21 | 3666280 BeetleBailey
BeetleBailey's picture

.....The June Swoon, followed by the July/August low volume, HTF zombie market...more buffoonery/lies/can kicking, then...


BACK from summer holiday (the squids of the banksta-gangsta woild).....and ka.....BAM...


we get another Lehmann-like ass-fucking, sans lube....

Mon, 06/17/2013 - 18:49 | 3666190 FL_Conservative
FL_Conservative's picture

Don't worry....the NSA will get you the answer.

Mon, 06/17/2013 - 19:06 | 3666243 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

the NSA will get you & the answer

Fixed that for you

Mon, 06/17/2013 - 18:57 | 3666211 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

Good point. The Greek Bonds look pretty good; they're going up, eh? don't things continue to go up, when they've been going up lately? Sure. I think I'll buy some of those.

Mon, 06/17/2013 - 19:07 | 3666249 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

Everyone knows that Greek government bonds never go down.

Mon, 06/17/2013 - 14:05 | 3665376 Stackers
Stackers's picture

Silly Alphamentalist,


ALL of course

Mon, 06/17/2013 - 14:28 | 3665448 alphamentalist
alphamentalist's picture


Mon, 06/17/2013 - 15:54 | 3665541 screw face
screw face's picture

.....ummmm Bloomporn........moar please



Fuck the dip.....(except PM's of course)

Mon, 06/17/2013 - 16:01 | 3665777 Midasking
Midasking's picture

The only way to win is not to play - Joshua... http://tinyurl.com/mem7o7x

Mon, 06/17/2013 - 13:48 | 3665323 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture


Mon, 06/17/2013 - 13:52 | 3665335 digitlman
digitlman's picture




Mon, 06/17/2013 - 14:40 | 3665494 King Nothing
King Nothing's picture

Lets see judging by your charts this is about the same as taking all my life savings and dumping it on a game of roulette with only one spin allowed, and since I know I can't win all my money back, never mind make a profit I choose to do the only thing a sane player can do.




Did I win? obviously not but I has some fiats left :)

Mon, 06/17/2013 - 13:52 | 3665340 spekulatn
spekulatn's picture

I'm partial to the put all my eggs in one basket school for pikers.... so I'm adding to market1 baby!! Where'z my prize?

Mon, 06/17/2013 - 14:10 | 3665341 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Venezuela, Greece , Japan,  and the U.S and the answer is...I wouldn't invest in any of the ponzi schemes. I will buy silver and gold though.

Mon, 06/17/2013 - 13:53 | 3665342 l1b3rty
l1b3rty's picture

How about sitting on the sideline in cash?  Is that "D - None of the Above?"


Mon, 06/17/2013 - 14:12 | 3665395 HardAssets
HardAssets's picture

Mainly PMs and cash

Mon, 06/17/2013 - 13:54 | 3665343 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

I would not invest in any of these markets.  I would trade them though. 

Mon, 06/17/2013 - 19:10 | 3666260 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

There are no investors. Essentially the question boils down to; what trade do you want to put on. Your answer will get a no credit.

Mon, 06/17/2013 - 13:54 | 3665345 Hundred Dollar Bonus
Hundred Dollar Bonus's picture

Is Market 1 Bitcoin?  If so, I'll take two Windlevii worth please.

Mon, 06/17/2013 - 13:54 | 3665346 Schmuck Raker
Schmuck Raker's picture

Market #1, "Pepper spray & gas masks"

Mon, 06/17/2013 - 13:56 | 3665354 kralizec
kralizec's picture

Market 1 - Guns and ammo!

Mon, 06/17/2013 - 13:56 | 3665355 ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

Is this some kind of TA quiz?  Totally didn't study.

Mon, 06/17/2013 - 14:01 | 3665359 Cacete de Ouro
Cacete de Ouro's picture

War! When despicable diablo Cheney is awoken and wheeled out, war is not far behind....War! Stocks Up

Bonds propped up as a perennial backdrop..

Not too long before Dick Cheney visits Hell!

Mon, 06/17/2013 - 14:02 | 3665369 ebear
ebear's picture

Short them all (with other people's money) !!!

Mon, 06/17/2013 - 14:47 | 3665540 El Viejo
El Viejo's picture

Play the line and take your cut of other peoples money. The best way to rob a bank is to own one.

Mon, 06/17/2013 - 14:52 | 3665557 CPL
CPL's picture

Yeah...but even if you 'win' you lose holding onto a currency losing purchasing power while holding it on the down side.


Plus the usual risk with shorting stocks.  (the guy that owns them sells them under you or worse, infinite upward momentum from the printing press.)


Invest in gardening equipment, seeds and get cracking.

Mon, 06/17/2013 - 18:59 | 3666217 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

Excellent! You win the Teddy Bear!

Mon, 06/17/2013 - 14:11 | 3665390 involuntarilybirthed
involuntarilybirthed's picture

We need  a sister market not tied to Wall Street or the SEC or Congress.  Something new, something different something trustworthy....................just needs some imagination.  Something quazi private out of the reach of current manipulators and regulators.

Mon, 06/17/2013 - 14:53 | 3665561 CPL
CPL's picture

Kijiji  -  Buy, sell, trade.


Only market worth doing business on with no transaction fees.

Mon, 06/17/2013 - 14:22 | 3665422 eddiebe
eddiebe's picture

When Ben speaks, the world listens.

Mon, 06/17/2013 - 14:26 | 3665440 youngman
youngman's picture

Where was this test in November 2012...seems a better time to buy some of these.....but that was when Obama was re elected....I could not buy anything...I was sick...

Mon, 06/17/2013 - 19:02 | 3666227 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

I sympathsize with you completely; actually I'm not feeling too good today, either. Saxo Bank is running a video of two of their senior trading advisers talking to each other face to face; one says gold is going down to $1100 by the end of the year; the other one says it's going up to $1600. And that was the best they could do! I don't know either.

Mon, 06/17/2013 - 14:32 | 3665463 dkane
dkane's picture

When you say "invest" does being long PUTs count?

Mon, 06/17/2013 - 14:42 | 3665508 savagegoose
savagegoose's picture

market 1 = zero interest loans to banks

Mon, 06/17/2013 - 14:45 | 3665527 Bam_Man
Bam_Man's picture

Please stop calling them "markets".

Mon, 06/17/2013 - 14:47 | 3665537 icanhasbailout
icanhasbailout's picture

adding for how long, in microseconds?

Mon, 06/17/2013 - 14:53 | 3665564 CPL
CPL's picture

nano.  Micro is a long time now.

Mon, 06/17/2013 - 15:03 | 3665596 are we there yet
are we there yet's picture

The famious comedian Will Rodgers investment advice: TO make a profit in the stock market you buy low and sell high, and if a stock does not go up then do not buy it.

Mon, 06/17/2013 - 15:07 | 3665608 Tombstone
Tombstone's picture

Market 5...The BernankeBushido Index...buy like Kamikaze!

Mon, 06/17/2013 - 16:17 | 3665819 NidStyles
NidStyles's picture

To be honest. #2. It looks like it's the most stable. Would wait for the turn around though.


Mind you I am just answering the question without looking deeper than the charts, in reality I would likely invest in none of them.

Mon, 06/17/2013 - 18:48 | 3666188 texas sandman
texas sandman's picture

I'll take "I'm Fucked No Matter What" for $1000 Alex.

Mon, 06/17/2013 - 18:53 | 3666199 A. Magnus
A. Magnus's picture

Dammit, you were quicker on the draw with that snark! Great minds DO think alike, though...

Mon, 06/17/2013 - 18:49 | 3666191 surf0766
surf0766's picture


Mon, 06/17/2013 - 18:57 | 3666210 Bennie Noakes
Bennie Noakes's picture

What happened in May? Lots of those peaked in early-mid May and then sold off.

Mon, 06/17/2013 - 19:06 | 3666239 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

Yes. That's the important part of the four charts. the US 30Yr. Bond Contract on the CME is down 10,000$ a contract since then. What happened was the "Great Bull Market in Bonds"; is over. Like John Clease's parrot; that kind of over. not just taking a nap.

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