This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Deja Lu, All Over Again
In what year was the following written:
The Federal Reserve appears on track to buy the entire [amount of] government debt it has committed to purchase, barring a sharp, unexpected shift in the economy's prospects.
If anything, lingering weakness and renewed concerns about global credit markets may lead top officials to lean toward doing more rather than less.
Policymakers would not likely have committed to a significant upfront figure if they saw the possibility that they would need to change course shortly thereafter. Instead, officials view the move much like traditional interest rate cuts, which are rarely taken back so rapidly.
A recent batch of better-than-expected economic data, including a relatively upbeat reading on the job market, has raised questions about whether the Fed acted prematurely in pulling the trigger...
The Treasury market has been selling off sharply, in part as a response to the somewhat brighter landscape.
The answer: 2010. The 10 Year back then was 3.40%.
But yes, baffle 'em with enough BS, and three years later everyone will forget that the "Taper" is nothing new, that it happens every year or so, and that without fail it is accompanied by a "sharp bond sell off" as a "response to the somewhat brighter landscape" only for central planning to go right back to doing the only thing it can do: buy everything without consideration for cost or market liquidity once the mirage fades all over again.
* * *
And a bonus, from the same Reuters article:
Whether the Fed's bond-buying policy, also known as quantitative easing or QE, will enter a third phase when the $600 billion in purchases is completed in June is another matter.
A hawkish tilt in the composition of voting members on the Federal Open Market Committee, where regional Fed bank presidents rotate in and out each year, will make consensus harder to come by in 2011.
The chorus of opposition to the policy, both internationally and domestically, could also restrain further Fed buying.
However, since the financial crisis sent the economy into its deepest recession, the Fed has shown a propensity for erring on the side of doing too much. Its influential chairman, Bernanke, has argued that Japan's fatal error was being too meek in its approach to unconventional easing.
Time to look forward toward not only the Untaper, but to QE5 (or is it 6? does anyone care as long as 'stocks' are up?), only this time with Janet Yellen hitting the print button.
- 17824 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -


MOAR printing!
MOAR Kevin.
Fed is going to TAPER.... They need to preserve their dry powder for a later date. They don't have to be a hero in June...
Obama threw Bernanke under the bus already in anticipation of the TAPER. It's going to be an exciting few minutes on the trading floor when the news comes out.
I am loaded with JPM and IWM puts. ALLLLLLL INNNNNN!
How did that Russian guy do on his FB stock? He bought ONE MILLION DOLLARS back when FB was at $27. "ALLLL INNN!"
People seem to have forgotten that Greenspan also claimed he was going to end QE. And he actually started to.. and then the biggest crash in the history of finance happened. Greenspan retired and handed the printing press to Bernanke.
Funny how these assholes always claim to be "about to get responsible" just before they retire.
Today may be the greatest opportunity to bet against the markets. Let's see how this turns out, but I think looking back on today there will be many who wished they had initiated puts today.
Russell 2000
http://scharts.co/10uh3h3
If they do not taper, which is likely considering they can't, the market will fly tomorrow. Those puts will disintegrate tomorrow. I don't mean to burst your bubble but the shorts continuously get burned in this game. It would be wiser for the news to come out and trade after, ou'll make less, but won't lose your shirt if your wrong on your black or red outcome.
No way dude, more of the same. Careful with those puts.
I'm too lazy to scroll all the way down.... has anybody said 'Fuck You Yellen' yet?
Save dry powder? You must not be noticing the ever decreasing half-life of their actions.
What they're doing instead is to increase the velocity of BS in ALL directions, in order to counteract their otherwise ineffective machinations.
You ever watch an out of balance washing machine? What do you do? Open it up, rearrange stuff, and try again, hoping to achieve the moment when the centrifugal force is overtaken by inertia. But it only happens when a high enough velocity is achieved.
Of course, Ben can't stop the machine, or rearrange anything. All he can do is to throw more stuff in on the unbalanced side in an effort to maintain inertia. Never mind the fact that he cannot help but to overload the system. That'll happen some other day.
market is melting up again today
Buy puts, make money.
MOAR {shite/fractional reserves}, to shovel!
Don't forget to bring your hip waders.
TheFourthStooge-ing I'll be standing right along side of you, holding up the dam.
Tapering is important. Imagine how your ass would snap shut without tapering.
Plus the tapering helps to channel the headwinds while rapidly approaching the fan.
Exactly. We're being tasteless, but the glib jargon for all these stupid programs might just as easily refer to bodily functions. When will central bankers call a spade a spade?
ah yes...but with bonds selling off they get to buy at better levels...see?
Pure fucking fantasy.
QE-YD (Yellen/Dudley) 2014 is a coming. USA is going Japanese.
I really think so.... (-:
Yellen be gellin' just like Ben the fleeing felon as the CronyComrades demand MOAR!
FOWARD!
FORWARDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD >>>>>>>>>>>>
Tylers, We need a Where's Ben going? poll.
The Japanese are going to buy Bernanke from Obama for $5 trillion, download all of Bernanke's mind, and put his body in a cryogenic chamber.
bens going to pull off that fake fucking beard and rubber face, revealling himself to be maxine waters......
I disagree, I think he is pee-wee herman
-
#KeepObamaBundler&Ex-CEOofGoldmanThe"Honorable" Jon S. CorzineFreeProject
There will be no walls in Wolfstreet.
save toilet papers
Why can't we just give everyone a trillion dollar coin so we can move on from the QE and get back to more shopping! http://tinyurl.com/mem7o7x
Finally a spot on article on QE and the Fed BS behind it. Despite QE, implied inflation expectations have dropped in the last 2 months. Absent QE, the 10 yr goes below 1.5% again. With a market correction (20% or more), it goes below 1%.
"Absent QE, the 10 yr goes below 1.5% again."
Tenuous assumption, keep in mind, QE boosts both stocks AND bonds. $45 billion a month in UST purchases is present case, if that were to ever go down, the 10 year would probably go up in yield (even with an equity pullback).
US debt and unfunded liabilities are $141.6 trillion and rising at $8 trillion a year. It is impossible for the Fed to taper under such conditions.
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
tick, tock like a bomb. Just a matter of time.
@JustObserving ... you fail to mention the trillion or so each year that the feds are spending as we speak just to keep places like Detroit and Memphis from ...
Wait.
Nevermind.
You are frightening to children, please cease and desist!
Do Not Worry !!
Do Not Worry !!
And remember kids, they're fighting for our freedoms, but only some of them. (the freedoms, that is)
Ben is out of bullets and the dragon of no job growth due to excess regulations and excess
Government has not been slain. The speculation is very reminiscent of 1929.
you nailed the two biggest problems when it comes to future growth. cannot happen without repeal of massive regulatory burden (including simplifying the tax code) and reduction of the size and scope of the federal government...
So I walk into my little Sierra foothills town hall to pay the water bill. (Up about 400% in the last 15 years [they finally figured out a way to force people to fund their pensions].)
Anyway, in an idle moment, I picked up their "Welcome to [Paradise]" brochure to look at while waiting.
It consisted of no less than 40 or 50 pages of utter beaurocratic crap that one had to go through in order to open a business. This license. That permit. Those permissions and inspections and reviews.
Now, to sure, each page was only five and a half inches by eight and a half inches (letter sized paper folded in half), but 40 freakin' pages!?!
Fuck 'em. They've made it impossible.
Same goes for France...
“2010 is whatever the records and the memories agree upon.” GO 1984
I keep thinking I cant take any more of this...... and then I have to tell myself that this is the way things are, and nothing will change.
Ignorance is indeed bliss.......I wish I could go back to having my head in the sand!
K@
Try some meth. I hear it cures everything that's wrong with society.
not sure about that but i'm leaning pretty heavy on the alcohol crutch...
Looks like I picked a bad decade to quit sniffing glue.
"With doing more"
The Fed has infinite printing to counter-act deflation. That's what it's doing.
Rather than let markets adjust to rid all the excesses, it's increasing the excesses.
Oh, this should end well (sarc).
Today = FOMC pre-ramp.
Overnight futures shows the fabric of the half-time leaks as the informants and snitches relay their illegally-attained info to the Squid/Whale.
Magnetosphere weakened by 50% in last two years.
Earth's magnetic field is 1/2 gauss .... down from 300 gauss 250 million years ago.
Earth lost 70-80 % of its magnetic field in the last 4,000 years.
are you suggesting a link between Earth's magnetic field and QE?
Uh correct me if I am wrong, but when the Earth's magnetic field disappears the next solar flare coming this way will blow away the earth's atmosphere just like Mars.
Yeah, gold won't save you when YOUR FACE MELTS OFF.
Yu huh!
I'll use it to shield mah face bitch!
I think we used up all of the magnetivity. It isn't a renewable resource.
Peak magnetivity, then? No wonder I can't get anything to stick to the fridge.
They use magnetic ink on US currency. Hmmmmmmm. That's where it went.
WTF are you guys talking about?!?
Bullish!?! You saying go long FB?>?
That happens when the Earth is going through a pole reversal. We are overdue for one and it is most likely happening right now.
The wife has gone and bought some of that expensive Swedish furniture today and asked me to unpack it, I used a brand new stanley knife and gave myself a right fucking fright.
I damn near slit me shelf.
:-)
Chin up bitchez, just remember, you aint waking up in the morning knowing you are the bernsplank. Evil little dwarf cunt.
Terrorist attack = thwarted.
Print baby print until a currency crisis. End game for the US and Fed.
Bernanke, Evans, Dudley and Yellen, how's it feeling being trapped continuing the insanity with no way out?
So, I think that I have figured it out. All of these QE "thingies" have been about putting a lid on the bond markets...I get it - volatility in stocks GOOD! Higher interest rates BAD!!!
Maybe it's time to finally give up on the fear of 'bond vigilantes', 'mean reversion', and 'unlimited deficit spending'...who gives a shit anyway?! MMT is the new quantum physics and spooky action of economics.
I want to beat the shit out of my Econ101 professor! Supply and demand theory spouting mother fuckin' liar!
I hope to someday ask Stanley Fischer to sign my econ book that he wrote, then beat him upside the head with it.
Of course, I want to do the same thing with my copy of George Reisman's, Capitalism. I expected this to be one of the greatest books ever, but I couldn't make it past chapter two and his fucking preaching about "good citizens."
Whaaaa... tell me again what economic theory has to do with the mafia that runs the world???
Those who can do. Those who can't Teach or become a manager.
Someone needs to make good use of the PRISM program and hack into it to get the contents of Bernanke's and some of these other slimebags like Dimon, Blankenstein, Soros etc and leak that..... It might just break the Marxist controlled capture of a few large corporations, regulators in their respective industries and political enablers in the hybrid marxist government/crony faux capitalist (corporate style) that is turning this country into Amerika. Will the free markets be restored who knows but fuck it enough is enough.
Already done. How do you think they get them to do the stupid things that ruin their institutions that they do do?
QE AFTER-FOREVER
QE MOAR AND MOAR
QE NEVER STOP PLUS
QE SUPER INFINITE PRINTING
QE THE WHOLE LOAD
QE YOU GOTTA TRUST US
QE RISK RAMP TO THE MOON
QE HYPER PARABOLIC
QE INFINITE HEDGE
and 3 trillion dollars later gold rapidly heads down towards 2010 prices.
makes sense.
When does it break fonz? gold price and fed balance sheet are diverging when they have always moved in tandum. how big can the fed balance sheet be? when is it riddiculously high that it will crumble under its own weight?
I am pretty sure that you feel the same way that I do. I am almost certain that I hold this whole thing in the palm of my hand. Equities will keep rising parabolically and precious metals will just keep heading towards lower and lower levels. Real estate will keep going up and interest rates will start falling again. Nothing bad will happen. It will go on like this while I punish myself and those around me with my awful, ridiculous negaitve sentiment. I will lose clients, friends etc. I will become so angry and jaded and vicious that I will start picking on other posters here and getting into fights on here just out of pure anger. Finally I will sit back and come to the understanding that this was not about the market. This was not about the economy. This was about me. My psychology. My inability to see any positive aspect of anything. My need to believe that we were always on the cusp of some sort of collapse.
Upon coming to that realization I will sell any PM's that I have, change my whole investment thesis, and allocate my capital the way that everyone else has. I can finally start a new beginning the right way.
That exact moment is when everything that I feared will come true.
I've had thoughts of entering the stock market. Then I look back to 2008 when i got burned, then go "nah". Been dabbling in gold and silver coins mostly for 20 years. Think i'll stay that way. Worst case is my son can inherit them...
1000+
Fonz, I see the time spent in that FEMA camp did you some good. Now you are thinking like a true patriot again.
A very simple answer = ESF
The U.S. Exchange Stabilization Fund was established at the Treasury Department by a provision in the Gold Reserve Act of January 31, 1934. 31 U.S.C. § 5117. The fund began operations in April 1934, financed by $2 billion of the $2.8 billion paper profit the government realized from raising the price of gold to $35 an ounce from $20.67. The act authorized the ESF to use its capital to deal in gold and foreign exchange to stabilize the exchange value of the dollar. The ESF as originally designed was part of the executive branch not subject to legislative oversight.
The Gold Reserve Act authorized the ESF to use such assets as were not needed for exchange market stabilization to deal in government securities. The Fund had no statutory authority, however, to engage in other activities that it began to undertake.[citation needed] The principal such extraneous activity it devoted itself to was lending dollars to politically favored governments.
A change in the law, in 1970, allows the Secretary of the Treasury, with the approval of the President, to use money in the ESF to "deal in gold, foreign exchange, and other instruments of credit and securities."[5]
On September 19, 2008, U.S. Treasury Department announced that up to $50 billion in the ESF would temporarily be made available to guarantee deposits in certain money market funds.[8]
Lets just say there is infinite fiat in the ESF to do the executive branches bidding with no oversight. Period.
Great post! +1 Oh, by the way, how's that usd/jpy short working out for you?
Me? I still have a small japan short yen play on. I will keep it and just forget about it.
Fonz, I said in an earlier thread that the usd/jpy long was over until after the Fed. I also said that I was looking to long the aud/usd. (aud is a commodity currency) I also bought some MOAR silver.
My comment was directed at slaughterer. His Friday comment about usd/jpy going to 93.
Good I am glad it was not directed towards me because as you can see by my answer...it was another way of saying "I'm getting killed".
I upvoted you. slaughterer +1 I think you have good intentions. The serial junkster is just 'cannon fodder'.
People seem to forget ... there are a lot of letters (and words) that come after "Q."
And even when we use up all those, well, what's not to stop us from starting all over again? Yay.
Also, the Latin alphabet is not the only one out there.
Why do we even have a Fed Chairmen and Fed Govenors anymore? (I know rhetorical question) Why not just create a HFT algo that factors all this shit including headlines, BLS, PPI, CPI, GDP and its revisions, and the elites desired voting outcomes for the next election cycle, and get rid of the Fed and it's appartus. It would then spit out factors or solutions that indicate what the interest rates and amount of QE should be each month. By the way it could be open source for transparency.
Just a thought-
2010 began w FED balance sheet at 2.2 trillion. 2011 started at 2.4 trillion. Now at 3.4 trillion, as per FRED.
Shoot for 5 trillion, it's a nice even number.
A pause here and there ...
But they're going to have problems, the bigger it gets, the bigger the imbalances.
There are only 2 courses of action that the FED can take
1. Real Economic growth, based on worldwide economic conditions will pick up quickly, unemployment will improve and debt will be wound down. OR
2. The current slog of US and Worlwide economic /finance system with all the known propaganda variables will persist. The FED has little if any wiggle room, under scenario #2 as the Finance system must be preserved and the US deficits have to be funded.
The only unconteplated variable is an Economic/Financial reset. Will they even try to return to honest economic, market driven financial systems or wait untill there is economic anarchy world wide?
Will they go for controlled change or instant change as a result of financial and social collapse?
A recent batch of better-than-expected economic data, including a relatively upbeat reading on the job market, has raised questions about whether the Fed acted prematurely in pulling the trigger...
Ok, enough of the fuckin lies. The unemployemt report was a disgrace. 122,000 of the 175,000 jobs wer low paying, how in the hell is that good news?
Its good news as long as most people buy it. The American public is not known for understanding "nuance or context."
Heading into the 2014, the incumbents (repub and dems) need the economy to be "picking up." This is done by simply tapering for the rest of 2013 which will reveal the true state of the economy. At the beginning of 2014, the incumbents pass some legislation that does jack squat but at the same time the Fed turns on the QE spigot and voila, an economy that is picking up.
I learned recently that when the Fed buys tTeasuries, it is an asset on its balance sheet, with a corresponding liability - the increase in debt held by the public. This is the same financial dynamic whether the purchaser is the Fed or China.
I was astonished, for I thought the Fed was printing money with no accountability.
Don Levit
we know this ends in hyperinflation. how can anyone NOT be buying gobs of gold and silver right now?
but, but, but.... Krugman says they're barbarous relics.
caShOnlY,
Quite the opposite. As ZHers point out, most incomes aren't going up. Thus, not a lot of demand created.
There is asset inflation but it's not going to "end" until the assets deflate, which will happen...eventually.
Bang Moment coming. Those in cash and gold and ammo will bet ready to barter and buy.
"We will not monetize the debt."
- Bernank
Fucking liars. And dumb fucking Americans enable them.
It's a bull market according to CNBC