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"Tomorrow Is The Big Day"

Tyler Durden's picture




 

From Mike O'Rourke of Jones Trading

Fed-stivities

Drum roll please ... Tomorrow is the big day. 

Market participants have been primed and prepared to watch for any changes to the Fed’s forecast.  The current Fed forecasts for key metrics are as follows.  The 2013 Unemployment Rate is 7.4%.  For the 2014 Unemployment Rate, the Fed is forecasting 6.85%.  The Fed’s 2013 real GDP forecast is 2.55% and its 2014 forecast is 3.15%.  The game plan that Fed watchers have telegraphed is as follows.  If the Fed’s economic forecast remains unchanged, the reduction in the amount of QE purchases (a.k.a. tapering ) should commence in September or October.  If the forecast is raised, then look for tapering to commence in July or September.   If the economic forecast is lowered, then tapering is pushed back to December or 2014.  The charts below illustrate the Consensus Forecast and the Fed’s forecast for the Unemployment Rate and real GDP for 2013 and 2014. 
 
There is a belief among many in the market that now that the Chairman has jawboned the equity market sideways and the bond market down, the Fed will back off.  The thinking is now that bond yields are rising (including some rates), the Fed would like to remain low, and the Chairman could indicate tapering is postponed.  We believe this thinking is the result of having a Fed Chairman for 7 years who has done nothing but ease.  To be fair, when his tenure commenced the Chairman did finish Chairman Greenspan’s tightening cycle in early 2006.  When it came to ending QE or Twist in the past, the end dates were all clearly telegraphed early on in the program.  The process for QE3 has been quite different.  We don’t ascribe to the Pavlovian view that the Fed will continue to postpone the inevitable.  That being said, the belief in the Fed’s lack of tightening credibility has paid handsomely over the years.
 
We expect the forecast to remain unchanged and the reduction in asset purchases to commence in the Fall.  Let’s start with the premise that the Unemployment Rate forecast carries the most importance per Jon Hilsenrath’s WSJ article.  Although the Fed’s forecasts have often been way off base and far more optimistic than Wall Street economists, the Central Bank's Unemployment forecast has been its strength in 2013.  The Fed’s 7.4% is only a rounding error away from the street’s 7.5%.  Before the uptick to 7.6% in May, the Unemployment Rate low ticked at 7.5% in April.  The Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections provides, “Projections for the unemployment rate are for the average civilian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of the year indicated.”  As such, with the current rate at 7.6%, it is very likely the rate is at or below the Fed’s 7.4% target by year end.  For additional context, the Unemployment Rate dropped by 80 basis points in 2011 and 70 basis points in 2012.  Similar drops for 2013 and 2014 would place the rate at 7.1% and 6.6% respectively.  Those are not forecasts, but simply illustrations that the Fed forecast is quite reasonable.  Another key factor in the Unemployment Rate argument is the growing belief that the decline in participation is demographic and less job creation is necessary to bring down the rate.
 
The Fed’s far less successful forecasting has been in the realm of real GDP.  As the charts below illustrate, the Fed has been far more optimistic than street expectations or reality.  The Fed forecast has been consistently 35% above the street forecast.  So while there is room for the Fed’s GDP forecast to come down, it is at the same premium to consensus it has been for the last couple of years. 
 
The final reason that we believe the Fed will keep the forecast intact (thus indicating tapering) is because of the drama.  The Fed has rightfully been the target of a great deal of criticism for how the “taper talk” has been managed.  Does Bernanke want to continue to drag this out, or leave if for the next Chairman?  We don’t think so.  So what did the Fed do?  It went and told Jon Hilsenrath and Greg Ip exactly what to tell the market to look for.  That way everyone has the same expectations and theoretically, the same interpretation of the data.  In typical Bernanke fashion, he has set the expectations stage without ever making a statement or taking ownership.  Thus, if there is adverse reaction, he has deniability, but if the reaction is benign, he has started tightening (although he will claim it is easing) and the market accepted it.

 

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Tue, 06/18/2013 - 20:59 | 3669951 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

  it will be a DUD.

Tue, 06/18/2013 - 21:05 | 3669978 Stackers
Stackers's picture

1.35 EURUSD here we come !!!

Tue, 06/18/2013 - 21:18 | 3670001 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

"Tomorrow is the big Day"

~~~

Oh... I clicked on this thread because I thought they were putting Corzine in jail, impeaching Obama, ending the Fed, dismantling the NSA, & admitting the "911" Commission report was horseshit...

My bad... carry on... [somebody might be trading a piece of paper or shitting out a report or statement, so you wouldn't want to miss that]...

Tue, 06/18/2013 - 22:00 | 3670161 flacon
flacon's picture

Bernanke walks into a pizza shop and orders one large pizza. The waiter asks him if he would like it sliced into 6 or 8 slices. Bernanke replies: "Eight please. I am very hungry today!"

Tue, 06/18/2013 - 22:02 | 3670165 flacon
flacon's picture

John Kerry walks into a bar. The waiter aks: "Why the long face?"

Tue, 06/18/2013 - 23:33 | 3670357 strannick
strannick's picture

yeah, then in Sept/Dec the numbers are revised, the conditions changed, and tapering begins in March/May 2014, though purchases are temporarily increased in Jan/Feb. Basically regard the Feds ''gladly pay you Tuesday for a hamburger today'' lack of restraint the same as you would a drunk who wants just a bit more tab and time

Tue, 06/18/2013 - 23:50 | 3670389 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Bernanke walks onto the stage, clad in cape, tophat and holding a magic wand.

He proceeds to remove his tophat, and to the oohs and aahs of the crowd, retrieves a plump, white bunny rabbit from within.

He then announces to the audience that they will be amazed as he will next make the bunny rabbit disappear.

He proclaims "abacadraba!" and then rips the bunny's fur off, leaving it bleeding profusely and withering in pain.

Krugman stands up and claps ebulliently.

 

Wed, 06/19/2013 - 00:42 | 3670452 tickhound
tickhound's picture

Whatever Almighty PONZI enlightens us with tomorrow... Rest assured that only faith in HIM shall bring the rains.

For PONZI says to those who worship the 'gold'en calf and false idols, 'ye shall be slaughtered as sacrifice.'

May the spice ever flow.

Tue, 06/18/2013 - 22:51 | 3670280 mademesmile
mademesmile's picture

This trick DOES work with small children, and apparently, Keynesian economists.

Wed, 06/19/2013 - 07:30 | 3670710 El Cuervo
El Cuervo's picture

Is there a difference other than size?

Tue, 06/18/2013 - 21:13 | 3670008 King_of_simpletons
King_of_simpletons's picture

Tomorrow's news today:

Bernanke will announce economy is doing great but there are little tiny headwinds, so QE will stay put until unemployment drops to 6%.

--- There you got clarity ---- (he has been saying this for the past 5 years)

Wed, 06/19/2013 - 01:18 | 3670498 icanhasbailout
icanhasbailout's picture

yep, report will say whatever it needs to do provide cover for continuous and uninterrupted money printing

Tue, 06/18/2013 - 21:18 | 3670033 SteveNYC
SteveNYC's picture

Too right. NOTHING will happen. Bernanke is a "pleaser", this guy doesn't like to disappoint and has NOT ONCE done so in his tenure (at least to those that "matter" to the Fed....the rest o us, well, disappointment is now a way of life.....)

 

Enjoy.

Tue, 06/18/2013 - 21:44 | 3670115 fuckitall
fuckitall's picture

Have Fed forecasts ever been right?  Since 2000 anyway?

Here's my forecast:  Ocare with absolutely tank the economy next year.  Fed will print and buy trash like crazy trying to keep prices up.

 

Wed, 06/19/2013 - 04:08 | 3670590 Zero Point
Zero Point's picture

At what point does much ado about nothing, become newsworthy in and of itself I wonder?

 

Tue, 06/18/2013 - 20:59 | 3669954 Chupacabra-322
Chupacabra-322's picture

Either way, we're fucked big time.

Tue, 06/18/2013 - 21:44 | 3670114 max2205
max2205's picture

And we'll know 1 min before the news hits....and someone will know 1 hour before, and a lot of people knew before today's close...

Tue, 06/18/2013 - 21:00 | 3669956 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

I would have so much respect for ZH if they don't even mention this meeting tomorrow. I'd even take a day full of Simon Black's greatest hits thread after thread if that meant us being able to avoid hanging off every utterance of these fucking assholes and their dog and pony show.

Tue, 06/18/2013 - 21:02 | 3669963 Midasking
Midasking's picture

Exactly what difference does it make at this point... the divide between rich and poor is going to explode either way.  Can you say banana republic?  I thought you could. http://tinyurl.com/mem7o7x

Tue, 06/18/2013 - 21:15 | 3670017 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

@fonz

~~~

As for me... I'd have so much respect for... aw fuckit... nevermind...

Tue, 06/18/2013 - 21:18 | 3670030 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

I hear you Francis.

 

 

Tue, 06/18/2013 - 21:26 | 3670054 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

so... where were we?... Oh yeah... What do YOU think the Fed is going to say?... [If you answer that I'll lose all respect 4 u]...

Tue, 06/18/2013 - 21:32 | 3670068 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

This is really some kind of groundhog day nightmare scenario. We sit here and beg and plead for something to change. 

Tue, 06/18/2013 - 21:49 | 3670126 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Andy: Bad luck, I guess. It floats around. It's got to land on somebody. It was my turn, that's all. I was in the path of the tornado. I just didn't expect the storm would last as long as it has.
[glances to Red]

Andy: Think you'll ever get out of here?

Red: Sure. When I got a long white beard and about three marbles left rolling around upstairs.

Andy: You know what the Mexicans say about the Pacific?

Red: No.

Andy: They say it has no memory. That's where I want to live the rest of my life. A warm place with no memory.

Red: I don't think you ought to be doing this to yourself, Andy. This is just shitty pipedreams. I mean, Mexico is way the hell down there and you're in here, and that's the way it is.

Andy: Yeah, right. That's the way it is. It's down there and I'm in here. I guess it comes down to a simple choice, really. Get busy living or get busy dying.

Tue, 06/18/2013 - 22:54 | 3670286 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

Love that movie.

"A warm place with no memory"?

That is Maui to the Bay of Pigs. No place like it in the entire USA.

Tue, 06/18/2013 - 21:52 | 3670137 PiratePawpaw
PiratePawpaw's picture

Its the energizer bunny from hell. It just keeps going and going and going and going and...............

Tue, 06/18/2013 - 22:57 | 3670295 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

Here is fonz waking up....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nt4JXKUv5MQ

Tue, 06/18/2013 - 21:04 | 3669971 FieldingMellish
FieldingMellish's picture

That is Stewart Thomson's take as well....

 

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/thomson_s/thomson_s_061813.html

 

I’m personally planning to boycott the FOMC minutes release on Wednesday. I invite others in the Western gold community to join me. If nobody in Chindia (China & India) cares about Ben Bernanke’s relevance to the POYG, should you care? I don’t think so, and I mean that purely from a wealth-building standpoint.

Tue, 06/18/2013 - 21:11 | 3669993 AlaricBalth
AlaricBalth's picture

Boycott? Are you kidding? I paid good money for my ICHEAT HFT trading software to see the FOMC minutes 800 milliseconds early.
;-)

Tue, 06/18/2013 - 21:15 | 3670018 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

the only reason it matters is because of the was "New Media" (the Twitterverse) drivers the equity space. Thus "people of importance" speak and these words are then "entered into a machine" and then the machine starts churning out "market movements." some Tower of Babel. More like a Tower of Bubble now. the Fed needs to "manage expectations" in the sense that "what we already know to be true" (the Fed will not announce it is raising rates tomorrow...nor going Cold Turkey on asset purchases) is in fact true. As long as that happens that the market should have its "predicted response" namely...bid up to the statement in the morning followed by the sell off on the news of the statement then a Battle Royale in the Fozanoon session. the last time i called for an up afternoon by mid morning. this time .25 cents is leaning on a big move down in the afternoon...but i will confirm this mid morning and take any ONE person who wishes to wager a George Washington. (please send chat request to me.) Good luck equity traders! As for the rest of you...especially in the...ahem..."structured products divisions"...good luck.

Tue, 06/18/2013 - 21:02 | 3669962 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

"The 2013 Unemployment Rate is 7.4%.  For the 2014 Unemployment Rate, the Fed is forecasting 6.85%."

They are dreaming, absolutely living in a fantasy world.

Unless they are going to tell the BLS what to print.

Tue, 06/18/2013 - 21:12 | 3670002 IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

Oh it'll be 7.4%, but the labor participation rate and those leaving the "workforce" will be through the roof. 

Tue, 06/18/2013 - 22:08 | 3670181 Yes_Questions
Yes_Questions's picture

 

 

and if any of them decide to file claims again, there's some lead on hand at DHS to keep them from doing that again.

I would't put it past them.

 

Whats so telling about the priorities here are the utterly useless data points the FED officially ties its actions to.

 

Wouldn't concerns over inflation, for example better be tied to units of currency in the hands of people who spend?  any of the "U" reports can be at historic lows, but that doesn't mean people have enough to spend around the debts and taxes they have.

IF something happens during the meeting, it will be a "tree falls in the forest" sort of event only wolves will be able to hear.

 

maybe the announcement afterword will have a little dog whistle in it for the lesser lupine.

 

 

Tue, 06/18/2013 - 21:44 | 3670107 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

No, no, you're mistaken, things are getting better, that's what the govt says, and why would they lie?  Places like Detroit, Toledo, most of the small towns through the center of the country, those are just anomalies, and really, they aren't even that bad, don't believe what you see. 

 

And inflation, totally under control, gas is only 1.50/gallon, anything above that is just a 'premium', it's not the real price of gas.  And anyway, gas doesn't impact inflation, it's like food - doesn't count.  For the stuff that really counts, no inflation. 

 

So everything's good, housing market's recovered, industry's booming, that 800 billion the banks got back in 2008 - best money the country ever spent.  Fed just wants to get out of the bond buying business now because they feel like they're not leaving any for the rest of the investment community. 

 

Anyway, VERY important to hang on every word of the FED, the future of the country, no really of the world, depends on their wise council and actions.  We're so lucky these brilliant public servants are in charge of our lives, praise Bernanke and the all-powerful FED.

Tue, 06/18/2013 - 22:11 | 3670190 Yes_Questions
Yes_Questions's picture

 

 

Heil Obama!!

 

Bernanke be Praised!

Tue, 06/18/2013 - 21:05 | 3669967 SILVERGEDDON
SILVERGEDDON's picture

Tapering. Refers to bankers shaping their dicks so that the first stages of everybody else getting fucked don't get noticed until it is too late.

Kinda like the Chinese with foot binding, or the Mayans with forehead boarding. Totally useless survival skill in the real world. 

Tue, 06/18/2013 - 21:05 | 3669977 mydogisprettier...
mydogisprettierthanyou's picture

Easy prediction...

 

 

 

MOAR!!!

Tue, 06/18/2013 - 21:05 | 3669979 Spitzer
Spitzer's picture

 

From 2004 to 2006, interest rates went up from the Greenspan lows to 6% and gold went up even faster during that time. I believe that was before the paper GLD ruled the gold market though.

Tue, 06/18/2013 - 21:13 | 3670005 Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

When market reality meets manipulation and schizophrenic moves by various governments, we are in for a convulsive period of volatility where nothing will make sense.

Tue, 06/18/2013 - 22:22 | 3670213 Spitzer
Spitzer's picture

Yep. We are already in it.

Tue, 06/18/2013 - 21:10 | 3669989 IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

"If the economic forecast is lowered, then tapering is pushed back to December or 2014."

 

Umm.....It'll be pushed back. Stay tuned to Zerohedge for sharp commentary and all things Fed buffoonery. 

Tue, 06/18/2013 - 21:14 | 3670009 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

The key tomorrow will be the Q&A. I heard a rumor that at some point during the Q&A Bernanke is going to pass gas. If it is loud with no smell that means they are tapering sooner than later. If it is quiet with noxious fumes that means more of the same. Listen for it.

Tue, 06/18/2013 - 21:15 | 3670019 IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

...so like a bankster sphinkter version of Groundhog Day. What if Bernanke came out doing his post-game in a tupee? Just to throw people off.....I bet he lays some nasty ass. 

Tue, 06/18/2013 - 21:34 | 3670082 kurt
kurt's picture

Und if the good gentleman should shit his pant?

Tue, 06/18/2013 - 22:28 | 3670237 Yes_Questions
Yes_Questions's picture

 

 

Working people shitting their pants over socialism for the rich?

Trillions.

 

FED Chair shitting his pants?

Priceless.

Tue, 06/18/2013 - 21:58 | 3670158 infinity8
infinity8's picture

And if it's the ol' SBD, will there be finger-pointing or everyone grinning-and-bearing?

Tue, 06/18/2013 - 21:12 | 3669998 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

The taper is only a head fake. Fed can't ever back out of this game, the apple cart would spill out all over the street. 

Only way out is to go covert: Fed "tapers" to loud propaganda while funelling money to zombies under the table. 

Tue, 06/18/2013 - 21:13 | 3670003 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

  The dxy selloff was priced in last month. It will be a sell the news trade.

Tue, 06/18/2013 - 21:13 | 3670007 ekm
ekm's picture

A stock market can crash, only and only and only if the government allows it to be free

Tue, 06/18/2013 - 21:20 | 3670037 IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

so we should be good then.....

Tue, 06/18/2013 - 21:14 | 3670010 bugs_
bugs_'s picture

I'm not the Limerick King but I have to say

if you think Tomorrow is the Big Day,

maybe the taper is already underway.

Tue, 06/18/2013 - 21:17 | 3670021 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

:YAWN!:

Tue, 06/18/2013 - 21:17 | 3670024 q99x2
q99x2's picture

To be fair the FED sanctioned FRAUD at the highest levels of the US and global monetary  system which in turn led to political capture of the Federal Government and finally resulted in the crushing of the Constitution of the United States of America.

End the FED

Tue, 06/18/2013 - 21:20 | 3670034 russwinter
russwinter's picture

GDP is going to be marked down, perhaps a 1/2%. The Slingers and funds are badly offside on positioning. Precious metals are set up for a massive short squeeze. 

On Wednesday, the Fed will deliver its view on the economy via its FOMC statement. I anticipate the current GDP estimate of 2.3% to 2.8% will be downwardly revised by half a percent. This would be more in line with other forecasts, such as the Conference Board (1.7% GDP growth) and the World Bank (2% GDP growth). 

more- http://winteractionables.com/?p=3517

Tue, 06/18/2013 - 21:19 | 3670035 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Tomorrow is no different from any day of the week!

Tue, 06/18/2013 - 21:22 | 3670044 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Absolutely no difference Yen. I am hoping for a bill gross hot mic moment. Since it seems pretty clear he is out in the cold he is just guessing with trillions in aum right now. Maybe if Bernanke confounds everyone with an excess taper we hear BG utter "you bald fuck" under his breath to Mandy. 

Other than that I'd say move along.

Tue, 06/18/2013 - 21:33 | 3670076 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

  I have to call my Mother tomorrow Fonz.

Tue, 06/18/2013 - 21:40 | 3670105 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Please give her my regards and tell her I am better off for you being here.

Tue, 06/18/2013 - 21:22 | 3670041 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Ben (· · · – – – · · ·) Bernanke

http://www.futuresmag.com/term/ben-s-bernanke

Tue, 06/18/2013 - 21:22 | 3670043 Frank N. Beans
Frank N. Beans's picture

I like how the Fed is managing our expectations for tapering.  Using the WSJ, speeches, etc.

I'm looking forward to the day when the government and the Fed can no longer "manage" us.

 

Tue, 06/18/2013 - 21:26 | 3670055 stinkhammer
stinkhammer's picture

What do you call it when the assassins accuse the assassin?

Tue, 06/18/2013 - 21:34 | 3670080 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 I neeed an enema!

Tue, 06/18/2013 - 21:33 | 3670079 CDNX fan
CDNX fan's picture

The complete Black Swan is that they taper bigtime and the dollar crashes and pm's go nuts. The graphics at http://demonocracy.info tell the entire story in a nutshell. Every G20 member is broke except Canada and the Nordics. But the brokest of all is the Yoo-Ess-of-Ay. I like the VIX in here with Barron's Sentiment index at plus-65% bulls for 19 consecutive fucking weeks. Even in late '82 the number got over 65% for about four weeks before the correction from - get this - 1235 to 1060. We are at 15,300 today but don't worry there's no inflation.

Tue, 06/18/2013 - 21:39 | 3670099 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

The only thing that is going to happen tomorrow is we will all be glued to every word our master wants us to hear. 

We will confirm that he is the muthafuckin man, and when he is not the next person will reign supreme after.

We will ferociously debate with each other what he meant and what he thinks and how that will impact us. Some of us who guessed right will get enough scraps to stay fed and happy for another day and others will go home hungry. 

It's sickening.

Tue, 06/18/2013 - 21:49 | 3670125 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

I agree, this 'hang on every word of the all-powerful, all-seeing, all-knowing, wise and benevolent money men who rule over us, then dissect the secret messages encoded in their words' bullshit is ridiculous and obscene.

Tue, 06/18/2013 - 21:57 | 3670155 HardAssets
HardAssets's picture

Yes, all the peasants are waiting anxiously to hear the proclamations from royalty.

"They hate us for our freedom."

Yeah, . . . right.

Tue, 06/18/2013 - 21:45 | 3670116 max2205
max2205's picture

Everyone wants to see a NASCAR crash.....

Tue, 06/18/2013 - 21:35 | 3670084 EclecticParrot
EclecticParrot's picture

Typical V-shaped post-minutes trade pattern tomorrow:  If a 'sell the news' plunge occurs, he'll walk the market back from the ledge in his comments; if the market ramps further, he'll drop a few "T" bombs.  His goal:  for the market to hold at current levels this week, then give back about 5 % slowly from now through August, no bubble to ruin his summer.

Tue, 06/18/2013 - 21:39 | 3670100 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 At least I have the {AAA rated @2.75%} bond yield , to cover my be<hind

Tue, 06/18/2013 - 21:56 | 3670150 EclecticParrot
EclecticParrot's picture

While covering one's hindquarters is the civilized thing to do, I fear many with threadbare protection will end up involuntarily 'mooning' our fearless leader tomorrow, causing a crimson blush to glow through the resplendent beard.

Wed, 06/19/2013 - 00:05 | 3670419 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

       It's winter down under. \

     I enjoy your eclectic perception of the equity bources.

Tue, 06/18/2013 - 21:38 | 3670095 wisehiney
wisehiney's picture

I wish I could remember how the trick went down several years ago when Greenspan said one thing at the fed day news conference, causing everyone (me) to lay on the shorts, and then came out at 3:50 with some opposite comment. I can't remember exactly what he said because my ass was burning too bad.

Tue, 06/18/2013 - 21:40 | 3670103 rubearish10
rubearish10's picture

Not optimistic anything of interest or impact will occur tomorrow which kills any summertime excitement. Bummer since option time premiums will shrink like a wet noodle in no time.

Tue, 06/18/2013 - 21:48 | 3670122 Hohum
Hohum's picture

Ok traders start jerking off.  Not too quickly, Ben doesn't speak until tomorrow.  You want to be ready if Ben wraps his mouth around your d**k.  If he does,...skyrockets in flight.

Tue, 06/18/2013 - 21:51 | 3670132 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

 

 

Global Economic Prospects - June 2013: Less volatile, but slower growth

http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/EXTDEC/EXTDECPROSPECTS/EXTGBLPROSPECTSAPRIL/0,,menuPK:659178~pagePK:64218926~piPK:64218953~theSitePK:659149,00.html 

World Economic Outlook (WEO)| We have a bumpy ride to your destination, fasten your seatbelt

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2013/01/ 

BIS Quarterly Review June 2013 - International banking 

European Economic Forecast Winter 2013 

After Bernank speech, you are likely to come to patch together new governance riddle pieces. There's considerably more to discuss, simply too lazy to link for any despotism entities who think they've already triumphed. Winks!

Tue, 06/18/2013 - 22:08 | 3670180 JJ McApe
JJ McApe's picture

This situation is ridiculous, like dogs listening for the dinner bell ...the entire market direction is based on what the fed is or isn't going to do. Sounds like a flim flam to me.

Tue, 06/18/2013 - 22:17 | 3670203 notadouche
notadouche's picture

Seems to me that "non tapering" has been priced in the last 2 days and no matter the decision down would be the only logical reaction.  Anyone?

Tue, 06/18/2013 - 22:20 | 3670209 r8trader
r8trader's picture

sell vol. the baton is passed; the next fed chief will make this call, not big ben. 

Tue, 06/18/2013 - 22:22 | 3670215 luna_man
luna_man's picture

 

 

Really, do you think(?) it really matters now, what these CRIMINALS do?...just more hyperbole!

 

"taper" or not, it don't matter...reality is knocking

Tue, 06/18/2013 - 22:28 | 3670236 wisehiney
wisehiney's picture

Use the fireworks to grab some Independence Day party bucks. Only appropriate to buy the hellacious illegal ones.

Wed, 06/19/2013 - 00:38 | 3670453 Boxed Merlot
Boxed Merlot's picture

buy the hellacious illegal ones...

 

Just light them off at your local asain buddy's place.  It's acceptable, even here in Stockton, Ca in order to promote "ethnic understanding".   (Another advantage of light "police 'protection'")  

I get mine in New Mexico, and if not for the home burglary I had a while back, I'd be sitting pretty.  They got most of the bricks, mortars and other devices "with report".  I need to plan another trip to OK to see the folks to restock.

Tue, 06/18/2013 - 22:47 | 3670270 Ranger4564
Ranger4564's picture

I'll go out on a limb and make a bold prediction just to be contrarian.

 

The Oligarchy has successfully created the perception of economic instability, precipice of collapse, failing global system. The pump has been primed os that anyone that will ever wake up has woken up, and the rest will just have to confront the boogey man that has been hiding in their underpants. The market is recognized to be a farce, unemployment recognized to be falsified but significantly greater than reported, bonds are overvalued, equities are overvalued, commodities are undervalued. The enemies have finally decided to take their place in the front line. The unraveling of the rulership of the US is rushing things along to completion, definitely prematurely, but they spent 100+ years to create this situation, they are not going to allow a blowing whistler to derail the freight train... If they wanted Snowden dead, then he would have been dead. The Russians sent some thugs to poison with nuclear waste some guy a few years ago for not obeying orders... you don't think with the rendition programs and other crap, that if Snowden was supposed to be taken, he would not be?  I think Snowden is legit, but I think ironically, this circumstance plays into the hands of the rulership... it's somehow enabling their intentions... intimidation, patriotism, idiocy, Stockholm Syndrome populace... everything is nearly ready. If only there was a bit less unrest in Turkey and a bit more in Syria... coming right up.

Fed will end buying spree, markets will tank immediately, global debt burden will be unbearable, war commences to distract everyone while the pockets are picked. Then on June 28, during the Quantum Dawn II, money will mysteriously be erased by foreign hackers, funded by the oligarchs of course. False flag, just before 4th July, which reminds us, they hate us for our freedom, and our Anthem... USA USA USA ...

 

Ok, that was pretty bold I think. Let's see if any of it comes true. Not taking any bets. :-)

Tue, 06/18/2013 - 22:56 | 3670294 wisehiney
wisehiney's picture

As plausible as any. I was guessing that the money market fund float rule will give them more stolen money to play with for awhile.

Tue, 06/18/2013 - 23:03 | 3670302 cnmcdee
cnmcdee's picture

I am hearing references that Ben Bernanke has been fired by Barrack Obama

 

http://www.businessinsider.com/larry-meyers-says-obama-fired-bernanke-20...

Wed, 06/19/2013 - 07:57 | 3670769 lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

"Ben you promised me Amerika would be collapsed by now, and I would be Dicktaster, err, Dictator. You're fired!"

Tue, 06/18/2013 - 23:03 | 3670303 cnmcdee
cnmcdee's picture

I am hearing references that Ben Bernanke has been fired by Barrack Obama

 

http://www.businessinsider.com/larry-meyers-says-obama-fired-bernanke-20...

Wed, 06/19/2013 - 00:01 | 3670410 combatsnoopy
combatsnoopy's picture

oh goodie!  Bears on HKD! Bears on Hong Kong real estate.  Just dont' tell the Chinese who are spying on our infrastructure... oh wait, they prolly released the news.

Wed, 06/19/2013 - 00:00 | 3670365 combatsnoopy
combatsnoopy's picture

I'm reading some JUICY notes on how Old GM filed bankruptcy to obtain $33 billion in DIP loans from the US Treasury and export development in Canada... GM has a subsidiary Nova Scotia Finance ULC which is barely noticed on Google who um, entered into swap agreements with Old GM.   Old GM exchanged CAD$ for GB pounds. Stronger CAD= old GM in the money.  THis happened in 2 loan agreements.

Old GM = Moltors liquidation corp (MLC) filed for chapter 11 on June 2009.  Remember the good ol' days right after they were bailed out by the unwilling taxpayers?  Remember when they closed NUMMI then sent the UAW after Toyota for closing shop for cost reasons?  And blamed them? 

Right now, MTLQU trades at a 14% DISCOUNT to it's underlying distributable asset value, implying that a 14% IRR using a 1.0 year WAL.  Recovery claims that pool was well defined, and three underlying variables.   Ie. Disputed GUCs, unsecured claimse reviewed by Alix Partners. 

So... GM (MLC) filed for ch 11 on 6/1/2009 and on 7/5/2009, court auth. sale of all assets of old gm to an acquisition vehicle NGMCO FORMED BY THE US TREASURY.

On 7/10/2009, NGMCO acquired all assets and assumed certain liabilities of Old GM pursusant to a MAster Sale and Purch AGreement, in a 363 sale transaction when Old GM changed it's name to Motors Liquidation Company.  with New GM SEcurities, ie. 150 Mil common shares of "New GM
shares =10% of outstanding at time of closing. 136,363,635 New GM warrants at $10.00 & of $18.33 expiring 7/10/16

On 8/31/2010, Debtors (MLC) filed for Ch 11 and related disclosure statemetn with bankruptcy court.  The disclosure statement was approved on 12/8/2011.  After 2 amendments, the second amended joint Ch 11 plan was confirmed by court on 3/29/2011 with effective date- trust expenses were transferred to the GUC Trust.  Tased with resolution and satisfaction of general unsecured claims (GUCs).

 

In 2009, noteholders became concerned about collecting principal and sued Old GM, NSF, NSI and GM Canada. 
Lawsuit directed at NSF, receipts owed by GM Canada.  Challenged various transfers of $600 mil in May 2008 from NSF to Old GM, filed at the Tegistry of Joint Stock Companies of Nova Socia in may 2008.

GM advised Noteholders that all or substantially all of the proceeds from notes would be used to benefit Old GM. NSF (Nova Scotia financial) was leveraged because of intercompany loans made to GM Canada. 

AND PEOPLE (bureaucrats) WANTED TO KNOW WHY I REALLY WANTED TO TAKE AN INTERNATIONAL FINANCE CLASS THIS SUMMER- HELLO MULTILATERAL NETTING!!!  btw class was cancelled due to "lack of demand".

Noteholders had some lockup agreement, Old GM would not contest the $1.072 billion direct claim, Old GM concented to a duplicative deficiency (guarentee) claim for NSF's underlying liability on the same notes, Old GM allowed NSF (through trustee) to assert claim against Old GM based upon a swap liability of $564million (even though Old GM was iin the money)
Old GM (through GM Canada) paid $360 m "consent fee)... old GM's liability since NSF was an ULC whilch allows noteholders to direct claim against ULC equity owners. 

NSF had no legal obligation to maintain any level of assets or share cpaital... and was not required to satisfy test of solvency before making transfers. They had some issues with JP Morgan? 

Let's see, DIP Order, the were approved, Term loan was repaid and committee was authorized to investigate and pursue challenges... In Nov 2006, UCC-1 was terminated with a UCC-3 through JPM.  Through some "administrative error" at a law firm.  Mayer Brown did a serch lien search for assets.     Judge ruled in favor of JPM pn some temr loan avoidance action, regarding some GUC Trusts. 

This is somewhat unrelated to the job numbers tomorow. 

Well, actually the U-6 REAL job numbers is unrelated to the job numbers being released tomorrow.  We semi-unemployed LAW ABIDING and taxpaying CITIZENS of the United States of America enjoy the exploitation as the attention starved masses that we are.

But since your tax dollars were being used this way, I thought you should know.  Happy Trading!!

Wed, 06/19/2013 - 00:35 | 3670450 horot
horot's picture

I usually disagree with celente, but this time I think he got it right. The fed won't taper until after December.

 

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/6/14_Ce...

Wed, 06/19/2013 - 01:09 | 3670485 starman
starman's picture

Ok I cant recall was it Obama or Bernak that said Change is coming?

Wed, 06/19/2013 - 01:50 | 3670535 syntaxterror
syntaxterror's picture

All the heroin addicts are fidgety waiting for their smack messiah to enter the room.

Wed, 06/19/2013 - 02:20 | 3670545 chump666
chump666's picture

Wow oil meltup!  DXY should collapse under 80 on this, HFTs have gone wild on futures. Nikkei is bid, EUR bid =  looking like one hell of a rally coming.

All is well.

 

Wed, 06/19/2013 - 06:16 | 3670636 PaperBear
PaperBear's picture

I’m 100% certain it will be the latter.

Wed, 06/19/2013 - 06:17 | 3670637 fijisailor
fijisailor's picture

They've been lying about everything.  Why wouldn't they just lie about tapering and say they are tapering when they are not?

Wed, 06/19/2013 - 07:52 | 3670761 lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

Considering real unemployment is about 20% or better, there is no use in reading their lies or their phony graphs.

Wed, 06/19/2013 - 08:04 | 3670781 lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

Xi: "Who yo master, black white boy?"

Dick: "You are, Xi."

XI: "You wnt Xi buy more USTs or not sell USTs? You must give brow job!"

Dick: :Oh, goody!"

Xi: "Also plans for next spy toys and new fighter planes!"

Dick: "ummp! gurg! Blumpph!"

Xi: "Hey, you did this before,you good brow job!"

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