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The Deer Returns On Fears Bernanke's Training Wheels Are Coming Off
One word can describe performance across all asset classes today: clobbered. Stocks tumble, Commodities slide and Bonds crash, with the 5 year suffering the biggest intraday percentage jump in yields... ever! And why? Because Bernanke confirmed what everyone thought they knew, namely that the Fed will start tapering (how else can the Fed match the reduction in gross Treasury issuance at auction without taking over the private market entirely) eventually. Or at least that's what the market read between the Chairman's lines. In reality, Bernanke himself is more dazed and confused than anyone out there and just like Europe, is making it up one day at a time.
Did the Fed's extraordinary actions increase or decrease realized vol?
leaving the S&P 500 at the lows of David Tepper Day...
Commodities were a one way street...
FX markets exploded with the USD bid (and if the bulls think carry will save the day - think again - this kind of vol means LESS carry not more)...
The Dow saw its 7th day of +/-100 p[oint days - first time since oct 11
Charts: Bloomberg and Capital Context
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funny stuff.. inflation is nowhere to be seen. yet stocks get smoked http://hedge.ly/187ezYZ
There is inflation - it's just in Jaime Dimon's wallet.
Ben's presser was a big FU to Pres. Pakalolo.
Oh good...now there's a FED/White Hizzy war erupting....NICE!!
Am I the only one that misses the 5-10% down days? This market has become very boring since 2008-2009.
I am waiting to hear that XYZ firm was caught on the wrong end of an interest rate derivative and is in deep shit.
I just want to know how many milliseconds before the critical seconds of the specific utterances a Fed functionary leaked the words to their good buddies.
QE4EVA announced last year, commodities tumble
TAPERing announced (although I believe it's a bunch of BS), commodities tumble.
100% proof that the Presidents Working Group on Financial Markets manipulates EVERY ASPECT OF THIS ECONOMY.
And price controls always work out in the end, don't they?
That first chart of the % change in the 5 year kind of looks like a seismograph. Tremors turning into an earthquake.
the problem isn't money. we're going post industrial. now we decide who works and who is food?
If you're counting on deer and training wheels, look out below.
Now all your soylent green is mine.
QE has to go on forever, because this talk of "taper" was to try to push investors out of equities and into treasuries. Didn't work. Bernocchio was noticeably nervous today because he knows he has lost control of the bond market. Rates are rising and the only way to cool them off is MOAR QE.
Capital is flowing where it needs to and away from the charade.
Good luck Ben.... you're going to need it.
Actually it's WE that are going to need the luck... Ben and his friends know how to take care of themselves.
He's got a QE monkey on his back and he can't stop now... the questions are;
1) Does he really care about the country or merely the primacy of the elite
2) Is he going to ramp up the opportunity for exploitation of this crisis in ways you can not yet imagine to obscenely profit ($T^1) his benefactors... (pardon the pun...)
As Obama's former COS Emmanuel once so succinctly put it... "Never let a good crisis go to waste..."
There is no way QE can end, if bonds get no bid interest rates will rocket up and US will be crushed by payments on debt. Gold is going to be used to balance the books of debtor nations after they print and erase their oblicgations, granted at a much higher price than it is now. It is the only thing that the world economies will accept after all this money printing.
Might have to buy some more gold soon as it got whacked today.
Happy Tapper day boys and girls
With love,
Uncle Bernake
The real deal is the boys on the street want the bernank to disavow the word taper. They want 100B a month, not 85. All the way to 100T a month. More more more moar!
Since he insists on the word taper, they will gently bludgeon him until he relents.
fortunately, the Nank is realizing that he is not bound by pomo.
if the treasury doesn't issue enough debt that the nank can purchase from primaries, then just bypass that little obstacle altogether.
you will soon be seeing outright flow of funds directly to the primaries, as though treasury debt were being purchased.
'virtual treasurys' is the working title for the program.
Thanks to FED, US economy is moving from a “Great Recession" to a Great Depression.
So, who will support all these people on food-stamps and all these States and municipalities living on government substance?
It's quite puzzling how the Fed's own projections of 2013 GDP have lowered since their March meeting, but he says it's gotten better.
Problem: You are not allowed to question the Great and Powerful Oz.
Solution: Follow the yellow brick road.
caconhma,
The entitlement populus, let's call them the 47%, will riot not when the SNAP cards don't work, but rather when bread is $15 a loaf. It will be ironic that the very people the gubmint used to buy votes will be the ones who take them down.
Fonz: Getting closer to that magic 2.5% level in the 10 yr.
And by magic, I mean giant fucking fireballs raining down from a swirling, black cloud of death.
Shit, at 2.5% the 10 year will be higher than my mortgage.
Liked the descriptor btw, nice visual!
pods
They made Gundlach and Gross look like amateurs today. If we get to 2.50% and someone is leveraged up somewhere it's going to get interesting quick.
Very disappointed in Gundlach; he's starting to look like one of the people who got high scores on tests but never really figured out what was going on. Very superficial analysis he made to anounce a coming rally in Bonds; for the record, I'm saying no. He's wrong. Groos has already lost a shit load of money; Kyle Bass is my main man; he knows what bullshit smells like, and he has absolutely no respect for any of the government-quasi government, assholes.
Maybe that is a tonic for what ills BB?? Rates popped because he said, truthfully, that the economy is in the midst of a robust improvement. Big bad XYZ was betting against the economy. Not our (FED) fault. USA!
You can't be serious. Rates popped because there were more sellers than buyers in the bond market; that's how prices go down; it's the falliing sale price of the Federal Promise that is recorded as a "higher interest rate", which incidiently will never be paid. Wake up, please.
THanks for the lesson, SAT. I was not being serious; There will have to be a few bodies that hit the floor, and BB will need some BS to shovel over them. I was providing the BS. Apologies.
Do the sellers just throw the excess bond certificates out the window and hope someone picks them up?
There's a buyer for every seller.
that is coming for sure
Fonz, you just could have said DB.
pods
Ha!
Those were heady days- bouncing my newborn on my lap and watching the 700 point drops.
Ahhh, the ole double-inverse ETF days....Perhaps they'll return.
Yeah, those were some good times. Good times....
You pull QE and you just might as well pull a pin on a figurative ponzi grenade for the Faux market......it would be lights out mofo.......and that AINT the way these slimballs will do.......or is it????......wanna bet YOUR money.....
"If the situation improves we will scale back QE, if it worsens we will add more".
So, the situation isn't "good" now or you would be scaling back and if it worsens you will not only continue with an admitted failure of a policy but do more of it?
Dis nigga trippin'.
It's 'Goldilocks'ed' of course, everything 'juuuuust riiiiiight'.
Having lost sight of our goals, and our methods, we'll do the .gov thing - re-double our efforts.
Awesome avatar name; he's responsible for my favorite quote; "bonds are instruments of guaranteed confistication".
I liked his: "The bodies of the dead corporations are lying in the gutters of Wall St., but no one will pick up the corpses."
chuckle. he was one of the good ones, alright. Smart and tough.
And yet the fear guage is slightly lower today.
Can anyone one please point me in the direction of an article that will help me educate someone about all of this?! I do not have a good enough grasp to do so. Thank you in advance. :)
Mad Magazine
HAHA nice +1
C'mon I know there were some great articles not too long ago here at the Hedge?! Tyler?!
http://www.southparkstudios.com/full-episodes/s13e03-margaritaville
LMAO you guys are the best
Here you go: http://mises.org/books/inflationinfrance.pdf
Thanks Sam, anything from the Hedge that provides more current events?!
Of course, of course:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/failure-inflation-targeting-hubris-central...
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-06-10/guest-post-smoke-and-mirrors-ru...
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-11-23/18-jpy-devaluation-best-case-sc...
And, last but not least: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-04/mario-draghi-responds-zero-hedg...
;-)
In all seriousness, you should read that if you have not. History may not repeat, but it sure does rhyme...
Man after that press confrence this guy has no fuking clue. I mean jesus god. Its print and pray. WTF and this market believes this shit. SAP500 at 1600+, how the fuk man. Take away the printing and we are in collapse. Must be patriotic and common sense now that we print twice as fast. No more bad leadership or burden on our children remarks by our fucking dictator.
WWIII here we come- right back where we started from.
Gap down open tomorrow, and go see the island-gap-reversal in NDX and RUT:
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=ndx&insttype=&freq=1&show=&time=5
I was kind of looking for some EMP action to get the ball rolling.
Too many people for a planet with finite resources.
World War Z, the "Z" standing for "ZIRP trap":
http://gnnaz.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/world-war-z1.jpg
Watching the replay right now, ZIRP will be in place through 2015 (at least) and will only be very gradually increased from then.
It's not about the "market" believing in this shit. It's a game controlled by few all-mighty players. Cartel.
FUckin Fed will own 3 Trillion in debt without every getting a callous on their milky white hands. LOL
FUCK YOU BERNANK. I HOPE YOU AND YOUR ILK HANG FOR TREASON!
HedgeAccordingly: "Inflation is nowhere to be seen."
Some people don't get out much.
well, there is hardly inflation in commodities, and PM are in freefall. Adjusted for all the money being printed you'd expect everything to be soaring together with the stockmarket and equities. So far..nothing. It's like the deflationary monster is somewhere out there, lurking, hiding. Waiting for a perfect opportunity to strike.
Dr. Copper has been screaming that for MONTHS.
There is no growth. Not here, not in Europe, not in Japan, not even in China (which by my calculations, is running right around flatline, despite the government propoganda numbers).
The only place there is inflation is in the price of investments (since that's where all the QE money drops to the ground first) and in some of life's necessities like food, energy, etc. (since they are both NECESSARY and the world is competing for those limited resources now more than ever).
Calm before the storm.
Im not sure where we are any more, or which way from here.....
but it damn sure isnt Kansas.
Its gonna get wierd soon toto........
@BurningBetty - Are you so wealthy that someone else does all your shopping?
YOU WANT TO SEE INFLATION? GO TO THE GROCERY STORE.
Prices are +25-30% since the start of the year, just as a baseline. Some things are up 300% or more.
MOAR Venison!!!
(stock up now, kids)
You're either with Ben, or you're with the terrorists!
Fuck you Federal Reserve!
Vini, vidi, venison.
Oh hell yea!! Love that damn deer! It's benny's worst nightmare.
Are the wheels falling off, or were the lugnuts removed?
We're riding on the rims and they are on fire...
Wile E. Coyote has just realized that he may have miscalculated his trajectory, and upon reaching his hand downwards below his ass to grasp earth, he finds only flat air.
Helicopters with training wheels?
Lawn mowers.
trillion dollar new defense project.
I want to see US yields exploding.
Me too-- I am long US Bonds!
BernanQE imitated a deer in the headlights today when some reporter asked him if "stock" matters more than "flow." BernanQE's defense of "stock" versus "flow" sounded like he was defending the existence of the Easter Bunny.
I wish we could get a replay of that question. That was fascinating.
Now if we could just get a deer in the headlight, and a muppet slaying picture in the same story. Toss in the exploding head gif and my day will be made.
Hey Doc your almost there. You forgot to add that said story be on a page where all the ads are of the camel toed, big sunglasses, t-shirt babe.
You saw the google thread, start googlin!
pods
No more exploding head gif.
Jhonny Algo: “Bernanke danced a decent watusi, so why the big plunge ?”
Suzy Algo: “The programmers who created us pumped our source code with FOMC tactics – which backfired.”
Jhonny: “Friggin’ Opie Mouthed Commies ?”
Suzy: “Not quite (though they’d appreciate the R.E.M. reference). They used a keyword subroutine for the Fed minutes, then a speech-to-text engine that faded CNBC guests’ interpretations before tackling Ben’s press conference.”
Jhonny: “Where did the breakdown occur?”
Suzy: “The streaming feeds were bungled, and they actually parsed an episode of ‘The Wire’ — found the word ‘Bubbles’ 13 times.”
Jhonny : “Oh, no! Can we recover from this, I mean, will the big banks ever use us again?”
Suzy: “Well, we lost a LOT of credibility that could take some time to rebuild.”
Jhonny: “So . . . you’re thinking by tomorrow afternoon, then?”
Suzy: “Yeah, that’s about right .”
Look who else is back. Pick your Winners of the New World v2.0, bitchez
I Love You AngieThat is a really bad picture of Barry X. You can see the hand, however, so that makes up for the lousy photo.
The Bernank should issue trillion dollar coins to everyone on his way out the door! That will get things moving again.. http://tinyurl.com/mem7o7x
go to ICI and look up the fund flows. massively negative the last 2 weeks.
You know....if you put a horn in between those ears, it would kine of look like a unicorn. Best, Ben Bernanqe
Turnaround Thursday comin' right up.
The lines outside of gold shops in Asia later today ought to be incredible.
I hate to say it, but I will.
Right now, I am glad more amerikan sheeps have not begun to load up on PMs.
When the time comes, there will not be any. It is really amazing there are photos of Celestials and Indians loading up, but nobody is taking the hint except for here.
Meanwhile, ZHers...
Keep Stackin!
thanks for posting the deer. i find her company to be oddly comforting today.
Shit, I hit a deer Sunday. It didn't even bother looking into my headlights. It just ran right in front of my car. Lucky I have insurance!
GOLD...... lol
MOAR paper gold being sold...that is pretty funny as physical demand increases.
The divergence of ASE sales and price of silver is even moar fascinating (Drutters Divergence).
http://goldsilver.com/video/amazing-silver-data-came-from-citizen-journalist/
Doe!
Knob.
Gobbler.
(I always got sent to the corner when we played the word association game in school).
Doe: I'll never go in those woods for two (bernanke) bucks again.
Hey, do you know the difference between Beer Nuts and Deer Nuts? Beer Nuts are $2.95 a bag, and Deer Nuts are under a buck.
Groan.
Careful, that is our beloved ZH Official Deer Photo.
Turnaround and Ben Dover.
Let me repeat this again:
Tapering started many weeks ago.
Full Halt - Imminent
Fed doesn't need meetings to do things.
Yeah, why does everyone think they announce QE at or around the meetings? Announcement of QE has nothing to do with actual QE, except that one comes some time distant from the other, in some way that most people have no visibility to.
ekm how can you know such unknowable things!!!!!
He's Batman.
I know, right? It's like he has access to super secret data like this!
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USGG10YR:IND
Notice May 1st - current. Went from 1.63 - 2.35 in a little less than 7 weeks.
Correct.
Just reading the reality, that's it
Simple answer: Yield up=taper ongoing
Imminent halt, sure, did you check crude oil price?
Reality shows what's happening.
You are right about Crude, that's for damn sure.
Discard the TV fonz, and you'll find a different reality
Good one, ekm, logged in just to up arrow you, +1
Thank you, sir, humbled.
Nothing superhuman, no inside knowledge, just reading the ongoing reality which is hugely enhanced by not having a TV sets since 2001.
I have decontaminated the main stream media from my brain
My brain's pollution is slow to leave. I'll just keep at it.
You, sir, are most welcome. I'm looking forward to more great insights from you and the rest of the inmates here at Club 0H.
And now...back to the show...
YAY! Deer in headlight pic again FINALLY!
BTW Slaughterer got it right.
Interesting article but, why was Gold and Silver down?
FOMC meeting. What was said is irrelevant. Information is irrelevant. All that matters is the keywords and the calendar entry. There are no markets anymore.
Why? Because it's easy.
@MFLTuscon
Because GLD and SLV are not commodities anymore. They are just pieces of worthless unbacked paper like everything else. Take advantage, buy physical.
@MLFTucson Because these days it seems whether the news is good or bad, terrifying or soothing, risk on or off.......gold seems to take a hit.
It doesn't matter; there isn't any rational explanation; daily prices are meaningless; the downwiash occured after the floor trading closed in NY; so it's electronic; Globex. Next we wait to see what Hong Kong does with it later today. But it has no "meaning". What you want to know is will they by up by Christmas, and the answer is yes.
Paper Ag and Au are down.
The PMs in my lake are still the same size.
I checked on them today with my scuba gear.
PMs run with printing more or less. Less printing, PMs drop.
And that includes hints & rumors.
May the market follow-thru and serve Daddy Bernanke a humble pie.
HaHaHaHaHa,
"Market" that's a good one.
Bernanke, is the market. His statements just set up the bad news is good news system to buy more time. The seasonal adjustments will turn and presto 2 more years of breathing room for the new guy. QEinf. +1 will be Japan style shock and awe.
I thought it was QEinf x QEinf.
big stock market dump(30%+ correction)=time for another false flag diversion.
Move along; nothing to see here.
Next up on Bloomberg: Sbux shows calorie count,
and should Captain Crunch be Commander Crunch.
Business as usual in the new normal.
Love the deer. An instant LOL.
WOW He sounded like it was his first day on the job . He never recovered from that ship landing on an aircraft..
stupid is as stupid does
Benny just covering is Ass. He is leaving in January but the QE will continu for another 2-3 years.
(With apologies to The Cure:)
JUST LIKE GREENSPAN
Show me how you do that trick,
the one that made stocks plunge, she said
The one that made yields spike, she said
and threw her arms around my neck
Show me how you do it, and I promise you,
I promise that I’ll run away with you
I’ll run away with you
You, lost and lonely
Just like Greenspan
So now we'll hear every day 'I wonder what Ben's NEXT move is...we're waiting with bated breath for the next FOMC and marching in place till then!'
WTF?? Somebody enlighten me. Why is the USD up and gold down? How the fuck does anyone have confidence in the dollar after this clusterfuck?
As Kyle Bass said... ``investors`` don't want to think how bad things will be if Bernanke fails... so they ignore reality.
His speech (as seen on ZH today) was quite timely. WS is in Denial...and then with the flip of a switch, WS wakes up and no one can get out fast enough.
Maybe WS can join us non-denial folks here on Main Street.
Long pitchforks and torches!
All paper gold vehicles, futures, options, ETF's are getting blowtorched. Allocated, unallocated, it won't fucking matter...you will not get your gold. Counterparty risk has arrived...so you better have your own two hands on your metal. If not, it's,
Game.Set.Match bitchez...
Confidence in the dollar is the default position of 98% of the citizens; the people who know better are in a tiny minority. "Up" in this case, means it's time for the FX trades to swing a little; it's profoundly meaningless. Gold will be higher at Christmas time than it is today; that's all that matters.
Almost everything got crushed with the exception of crude oil. Barely moved and hovering around record price of 98$.
The problem is not Bernanke nor the Banks etc., the problem are crude prices. Just to high and they are getting higher, 100% bet!
Oil loves the saber rattling of upcoming wars....
Controlled deflation/tapering will keep WTI close to where Ben wants it.
2008 scared the shit out of them.
Never again will the cartel take their hand off the throttle, it's all in now...
This fails the smell test. Why announce tapering? Especially since it's not actually slated to happen until next year and even then conditional upon a bunch of pie in the sky. The fed may be letting some air of the the equities bubble while allowing those taking profits on their PCLN, CMG and NFLX positions to enter bonds at a discount to May rates. Stocks correct, rates fall back down. Everyone is happy. Well, everyone that matters. Too bad about your 401k's wage slaves. Look's like you'll need to work longer to give your buy and hold strategy more time to make up for the losses.
Trying to make fence sitters jump into a mortgage/house. Gonna turd when he finds out there are no fence sitters.
Now if Japan could blow up and make Bernanke have a heart attack that would be nice.