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Is This The "Recovery" That Bernanke Believes In?

Tyler Durden's picture





 

It seems the Fed head is confident that we are on our way back (despite cutting forecasts) - well he should be given his efforts - but as the following chart shows, arguing that downside risks have diminished seems not to fit too well with macro reality...

 

 

The question is - if the macro situation is so clearly weak, juist why is he is discussing a taper (if not because he knows he has broken the markets)

 


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Wed, 06/19/2013 - 15:53 | Link to Comment dontgoforit
dontgoforit's picture

Vince Flynn died today.  RIP, brother, you were truly one of the best!   Long live Mitch Rapp!  Defender of the constitution.  We could use a few good men like that.

Wed, 06/19/2013 - 15:58 | Link to Comment true brain
true brain's picture

Car Accidents? What happened to bathroom electrocution, or just going crazy and end up in a trash dump-dead. or just being rendered and disappear forever.

They're running out of ideas?

Wed, 06/19/2013 - 16:04 | Link to Comment ZerOhead
ZerOhead's picture

 

Michael Hastings...

A contributing editor to Rolling Stone, Hastings leaves behind a remarkable legacy of reporting, including an exposé of America's drone war, an exclusive interview with WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange at his hideout in the English countryside, an investigation into the Army's illicit use of "psychological operations" to influence sitting Senators and a profile of Taliban captive Bowe Bergdahl, "America's Last Prisoner of War."

The man obviously liked to live life dangerously... even Tyler knows to look under his car and check his brake lines every morning...
Wed, 06/19/2013 - 17:18 | Link to Comment James_Cole
James_Cole's picture

The question is - if the macro situation is so clearly weak, juist why is he is discussing a taper (if not because he knows he has broken the markets)

We are to understand that the markets were 'unbroken' at some distant long-forgotten time in the past?

Based on historical precedent the markets seem to be acting as they usually do - business as usual. 

Wed, 06/19/2013 - 16:01 | Link to Comment Midasking
Midasking's picture

Ben, not to be an alarmist but looks like we could use a little increase in the QE. http://tinyurl.com/mem7o7x

Wed, 06/19/2013 - 16:02 | Link to Comment BlueStreet
BlueStreet's picture

He should say that if we had a functioning congress that could solve at least some of the monumental problems he never would done any QE. 

Wed, 06/19/2013 - 16:16 | Link to Comment ZerOhead
ZerOhead's picture

You're almost correct... The Bernanke is not totally to blame here. Unfortunately their is NO chance of Congress 'fixing' anything that it hasn't been handsomely paid first by TPTB to 'fix'... and TPTB believe that everything is just fine the way it is thank you very much...

The first thing the congress should fix is itself... followed immediately after by The Federal Reserve.

Wed, 06/19/2013 - 16:20 | Link to Comment kliguy38
kliguy38's picture

All branches of government have been infiltrated and coopted by the "true power" ......this is all engineered including the coming collapse...... Congress is gone and will remain "gone"

Wed, 06/19/2013 - 15:49 | Link to Comment MFLTucson
MFLTucson's picture

He is a liar and he is a courrpt man and nothing more can explain the ongoing assault on Gold and this sham of a recovery!

Wed, 06/19/2013 - 16:57 | Link to Comment lakeweb
lakeweb's picture

Yes, exactly. He works for banking and does not care for the 'recovery' no matter what he says. Sham times two...

Wed, 06/19/2013 - 17:18 | Link to Comment DosZap
DosZap's picture

Here's the gospel, from jsmineset.

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

The latest from John Williams’ www.ShadowStats.com.

- Fed’s Expanded QE3 Has Monetized 78.4% of the Concurrent Increase in Treasury Debt
- Relationship of Post-2008 Monetary Base Activity to Broad Money Supply
- May Year-to-Year Inflation: 1.4% (CPI-U), 1.2% (CPI-W), 9.0% (ShadowStats)
- Real Retail Sales Still Signal Broad Economic Downturn
- Second-Quarter Housing Starts on Track for Quarterly Plunge

"No. 534: May CPI, Housing Starts, Real Retail Sales, Real Earnings, Systemic Solvency "
Web-page: http://www.shadowstats.com

 

Suck on this one Benny.

Wed, 06/19/2013 - 17:21 | Link to Comment knukles
knukles's picture

DosZ...  They're gonna be sending your ass to gritmo for reeducation, pedaling teareasonus shit like that, dude.

Wed, 06/19/2013 - 15:51 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

The dow is down 180, the five, ten, and 30 year are blowing up, and the vix is down....go figure.

Wed, 06/19/2013 - 15:53 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Doc if you think we have seen bullshit smokescreens we have not seen anything yet. They will peg the ten year around these levels. Once they have calmed down we will hear endlessely that the move up was because of the improving economy. They will try to push stocks up to validate the bullshit great rotation argument.

They just need to play whack a mole with that 5yr. That is not allowed.

Wed, 06/19/2013 - 15:54 | Link to Comment dontgoforit
dontgoforit's picture

Everyone needs to read Animal Farm again.  1984 is his most famous book, but Animal Farm is Orwell's best to describe the current politcal lie-spewing tripe that we suffer through each day.  We love America, but we don't love America's government.

Wed, 06/19/2013 - 16:11 | Link to Comment syntaxterror
syntaxterror's picture

Oh my, you've just upgraded to THREAT by the NSA. I'd be on the lookout for unannounced repair persons showing up at your home.

Wed, 06/19/2013 - 16:15 | Link to Comment Liquid Courage
Liquid Courage's picture

Good recommendation! Did so myself about a year ago. Ah ... Good ol’ Boxer ...

    "His answer to every problem, every setback, was 'I will work harder!' - which he had adopted as his personal motto." Chapter 3, pg 28.

    "'I have no wish to take life, not even human life,' repeated Boxer, and his eyes were full of tears." Chapter 4, pg. 43

    "Boxer, who had now had time to think things over, voiced the general feeling by saying: 'If Comrade Napoleon says it, it must be right.'" Chapter 5, pg. 56

What is the character of Boxer in Animal Farm?

Answer:
Boxer epitomizes all of the best qualities of the exploited working classes: dedication, loyalty, and a huge capacity for labor. Exploited by the pigs as much or more than he had been by Mr. Jones, Boxer represents all of the invisible labor that undergirds the political drama being carried out by the elites. Boxer's pitiful death at a glue factory dramatically illustrates the extent of the pigs' betrayal. It may also, however, speak to the specific significance of Boxer himself: before being carted off, he serves as the force that holds Animal Farm together.

Boxer fights bravely in the Battle of the Cowshed, and the Battle of the Windmill, but is upset when he thinks he has killed a stable lad when, in fact, he had only stunned him. When Boxer defends Snowball's reputation from Squealer's revisionism, the pigs designate the workhorse as a target for the Great Purge, but he easily out muscles the dog executioners, sparing them at Napoleon's request. His death shows how far the pigs are willing to go. When he collapses from overwork, the pigs say they have sent him to a veterinarian, when they sent him to the knacker's yard to be slaughtered, in exchange for money to buy a case of whiskey for the pigs. A strong and loyal draft horse, Boxer played a huge part in keeping the Farm together prior to his death, and was the only close friend of Benjamin, the cynical donkey.

http://wiki.answers.com/Q/What_are_some_quotes_for_boxer_in_animal_farm

Wed, 06/19/2013 - 17:25 | Link to Comment knukles
knukles's picture

Some animals are more equal than others.

Gosh, I wonder what many of the Germans are thinking today.  Having had JFK speak about freedom at the Wall, Reagan tell Gorby to tear it down, and now a black US president telling them why its good to be spied upon as they were by the Stasi, KGB and Nazis.

 

Some animals are more equal than others.......

Wed, 06/19/2013 - 22:59 | Link to Comment Liquid Courage
Liquid Courage's picture

Maybe blowing the dust off their copies of Oswald Spengler's Der Untergang des Abendlandes (The Decline of the West).

Hmmm ... what was that he said about "Caesarism" again?

Wed, 06/19/2013 - 15:56 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

It seems that the suppress volatility, buy stocks trade is working against the Bernank.

Wed, 06/19/2013 - 16:06 | Link to Comment gatorengineer
gatorengineer's picture

Bonds will catch a bid because of the return of the carry trade, because as you say they are at the high end of the allowed range.  Nikkei should be fun tonight, so should JGB's.....

Playing DUST to 120, EDZ to 75 ish..... Thoughts?

Wed, 06/19/2013 - 16:16 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Even a five year bond the pays 25% is still a bad investment if the price of bread in fiat is going up 300% per year.

Remember, no society or currency has ever collapsed ot died because of deflation...

Wed, 06/19/2013 - 16:21 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Bonds may catch a bid but the range keeps moving higher.

Wed, 06/19/2013 - 15:54 | Link to Comment TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

The Bernank will ultimately (a process that may have begun to happen on a forceful and permanent basis) find himself stuck between a rising yield Treasury rock(et) and a very hard (asset) place.

Wed, 06/19/2013 - 15:53 | Link to Comment Hippocratic Oaf
Hippocratic Oaf's picture

The VIX is an extreme laggard, obviously...........

 

sarc.

Wed, 06/19/2013 - 15:56 | Link to Comment BandGap
BandGap's picture

Just enough chaos for us to get something done!

"Never let a crisis go to waste" is a two fucking way street.

Wed, 06/19/2013 - 16:03 | Link to Comment Village Smithy
Village Smithy's picture

I figure that on the other side of every WTF the VIX is sliding panic sell is a Goldmanite buying.

Wed, 06/19/2013 - 16:04 | Link to Comment Imagery
Imagery's picture

The VIX is set by the "players" not we "observers".  They know exactly how this orchestrated theft is going to play out and hence no worries!

Wed, 06/19/2013 - 16:14 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

passing glimpse of a beast (inflation) through an old wooden fence as you walk down an alley.  You can't quite make it out, but you know something isn't quite right.

Wed, 06/19/2013 - 15:49 | Link to Comment nbsharma
nbsharma's picture

i have a feeling he is being told to clean the mess before he exits.

Wed, 06/19/2013 - 15:58 | Link to Comment ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

First he is commanded to make a mess, then he is commanded to clean the same mess that he just made.  That sounds about right for this economy.  Why should Ben be any different from any other statist union turd?

BTW, the best time for a midnight bail-in will be when everyone is in cash.

Wed, 06/19/2013 - 15:58 | Link to Comment WTFRLY
WTFRLY's picture

It is a natural solution for some, let him appear to try to clean up and that will be the final distraction and the end of the blame game. Mispriced assets? Fuck it, let them eat cake is the fed motto.

Wed, 06/19/2013 - 15:50 | Link to Comment Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

I'm sure its just a perspective problem. Turn that frown upside down!

Wed, 06/19/2013 - 15:49 | Link to Comment Boeing Boy
Boeing Boy's picture

I don't think Bernanke has a clue.  Might as well ask Greenspan.

Wed, 06/19/2013 - 15:50 | Link to Comment Cursive
Cursive's picture

Watching CNBS for the first time in over at least a year and what a fucking tragicomedy.  These people put BernanQE on a pedestal and act as though he controls the entire market, then they act like if BernanQE removes the punchbowl there's no problem.  You can't have it both ways, dumbasses.

Wed, 06/19/2013 - 15:52 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Man-god kings....how have we actually advanced at all in thousands of years? Same old shit, worshipping a man-god king.

Wed, 06/19/2013 - 16:01 | Link to Comment Cursive
Cursive's picture

@SDO

BernanQE and the Fed are antithetical to every priniciple that the founding fathers held (notable exception: Andrew Hamilton).

Wed, 06/19/2013 - 16:07 | Link to Comment Unknown Poster
Unknown Poster's picture

R.I.P., Aaron Burr.

Wed, 06/19/2013 - 15:51 | Link to Comment Bad Attitude
Bad Attitude's picture

Gotta keep up the charade.

Forward (over the cliff)!

Wed, 06/19/2013 - 15:52 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

the 99% are fooled and that's enough.

Wed, 06/19/2013 - 15:52 | Link to Comment Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

"it's a recovery, god damnit!!!!!!111' - jack knife boot propaganda

Wed, 06/19/2013 - 15:54 | Link to Comment Hedgetard55
Hedgetard55's picture

Wow, Ben just gave the middle finger to Ochoomboi, Dimon, Blankfein...

Wed, 06/19/2013 - 15:54 | Link to Comment Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

Slip sliding away...  slip sliding awayyyy...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5_H-LY4Jb2M

Wed, 06/19/2013 - 15:54 | Link to Comment Debugas
Debugas's picture

trust in the banking system at all times low, same bank another country

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-06-19/swedbank-lithuania-unit-dismiss...

 

Wed, 06/19/2013 - 15:55 | Link to Comment TheSilverJournal
TheSilverJournal's picture

The Bernank was probably trying to drive investors out of equities and into the perceived "safety" of Treasuries in order to keep yields low by delivering a taper scare. Little did he know Treasuries would sell off too. The Fed has now lost control of the bond market.

Wed, 06/19/2013 - 15:59 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Well if Bernank actually wanted people out of equities, driving up equities 10% isn't going to cause it. 

Wed, 06/19/2013 - 16:19 | Link to Comment TheSilverJournal
TheSilverJournal's picture

The monetary ponzi is held together by cheap credit. His real goal is to bring yields down. He failed. He is out of control.

Seeing that trying to cause investors to move out of equities and into bonds didn't work, now the only way he can bring yields down is to increase the rate of QE. People are pretty dumb, but this should show to those who are paying any amount of attention whatsoever that exiting QE is impossible and QE will go on indefinitely (or at least until hyperinflation hits and it becomes meaningless to create more FRN's). We are entering crackup boom territory.

Wed, 06/19/2013 - 15:54 | Link to Comment Village Smithy
Village Smithy's picture

Bernanke doesn't believe there is a recovery anymore than we do. It's just that he can't come right out and say "We've spent trillions of dollars of yours, your kids' and your grand kids' money and it did nothing. Therefore today not because we've turned the corner but simply because the largest most criminal wealth transfer scheme in the history of the world has to stop sometime, I am announcing the end of QE. God save us all." 

Wed, 06/19/2013 - 15:55 | Link to Comment rosiescenario
rosiescenario's picture

.....and everyone believes he is going to do as he sez????????

 

What we are seeing here is the willing suspension of disbelief on steroids.

Wed, 06/19/2013 - 15:56 | Link to Comment BurningBetty
BurningBetty's picture

Landslide on Nikkei later today!

Wed, 06/19/2013 - 16:03 | Link to Comment The Shootist
The Shootist's picture

The yen has depreciated, so mkt UP, I think.

Wed, 06/19/2013 - 16:19 | Link to Comment BurningBetty
BurningBetty's picture

I am waiting to enter my bear positions on Nikkei. Hope I will time it. 

Nikkei has been consolidating on what FOMC will do. Well, now we know. And even though JPY is up, I still believe there will be volatility over there.

Wed, 06/19/2013 - 15:56 | Link to Comment Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

For a minute I thought Bernanke might be holding the chart upside down, but even then the news is still not good. He just can't win.

Wed, 06/19/2013 - 15:56 | Link to Comment CDNX fan
CDNX fan's picture

Just STFU and BTFD, ya chumps!

Wed, 06/19/2013 - 15:58 | Link to Comment bidaskspread
bidaskspread's picture

You need Bernanke's scaling on these charts. Try infinity, you'll see the charts are on top of each other

Wed, 06/19/2013 - 16:00 | Link to Comment ghostfaceinvestah
ghostfaceinvestah's picture

He's not talking easing because of any recovery, that is pure BS.  He knows his money printing is creating huge asset bubbles and is now doing far more harm than good.  of course, Bernanke the Great can't admit that, so he is claiming victory.

Wed, 06/19/2013 - 15:59 | Link to Comment Hedgetard55
Hedgetard55's picture

Got my DOW 10K hat out again.

Wed, 06/19/2013 - 16:00 | Link to Comment RobM1981
RobM1981's picture

Village Smithy nailed it.

"I'm out of ideas, paper, and ink. Let's see what happens..."

It's going to be interesting. What's the book value on the bonds the Fed has bought these many years? Trillions, obviously, but how many?

Because the book value is going to get pretty ugly if interest rates rise.

Yeah, buckle your seatbelts once this goes down.

Wed, 06/19/2013 - 16:02 | Link to Comment Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

The day of the great bail in approaches although I would not be surprised if out of desperation they decide to bail in the FED's balance sheet as well.

Wed, 06/19/2013 - 16:02 | Link to Comment Hedgetard55
Hedgetard55's picture

Maria: "Well, at least the DOW closed off it's lo... uh, wait."

Wed, 06/19/2013 - 16:05 | Link to Comment The Shootist
The Shootist's picture

Lmao

Wed, 06/19/2013 - 16:08 | Link to Comment Disenchanted
Disenchanted's picture

Did she even utter the words, "we're well off the highs" ??

I didn't think so...

Wed, 06/19/2013 - 16:29 | Link to Comment Darksky
Darksky's picture

She just ask 3 straight BTFD questions in a row. In 2 of the 3 questions she used BTFD twice. Five times in three questions now thats damn impressive. I dont know if i could fucking use the word fuck that many fucking times in three fucking sentences. Fuck it nevermind.

Wed, 06/19/2013 - 16:04 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Phone is for you Bernank- 'Hello?' 'Ah so, this China Mistah Bernank....why our bonds blowing up you promised they be OK if we keep buying....FUK U BERNANK!'

Wed, 06/19/2013 - 16:08 | Link to Comment Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

The way things are going the Chinese will be qualifying fir an Obama phone pretty soon.

Wed, 06/19/2013 - 16:04 | Link to Comment Crtrvlt
Wed, 06/19/2013 - 16:04 | Link to Comment thismarketisrigged
thismarketisrigged's picture

i love how the excuses these douchebags give on cnbc for the selling is '' traders want to lock in long term profits''.

 

ya my fucking ass.  all the sudden they decide to take profits, ya ok, im sure these guys are just raking it in so much.

 

i cant wait till these assholes come back from the hamptons this summer and all there money is worth shit.

 

fuck all the traders and wall st.

Wed, 06/19/2013 - 16:06 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Right....always as if some huge group of absolute dumbass 'buyers at any price' were just sitting eagerly awaiting for them place a sell order to 'lock in profits'. Fucking utter horse shit.

Wed, 06/19/2013 - 16:04 | Link to Comment Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

In the absence of additional key info and not knowing their agenda & goals, the only thing that makes sense to me is that they are "playing for time".  These people are not that stupid nor medically insane, and are not tipping their globalist hands.

The $64T question is 'what' are they stalling and waiting for?  WW3? USD --> SDR?  NWO unveiling?  The 2% pillage in the meantime?

Wed, 06/19/2013 - 16:07 | Link to Comment kito
kito's picture

notice the strength of the dollar people.......................remember.............this is a drill..........this is only a drill...............in the event of an actual crash..........immediately proceed to your local bank.....and withdraw the govt alloted amount of $150 dollars per day...................................GET PHYSICAL CASH!!!!!  bernanke is telling you HE WONT PRINT UNTIL OBLIVION!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Wed, 06/19/2013 - 16:10 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

There's still people here with substantial amounts of cash in a bank account? I withdrew that long ago.

Wed, 06/19/2013 - 16:15 | Link to Comment ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

Ben: "The economy is now out of the frying pan, and moving away from the hard place."

Like I said above, the best time for a midnight bail-in will be when everyone is in cash ... right about that twilight time when they have the money in the bank but haven't yet moved it to Brazil ...

Wed, 06/19/2013 - 16:15 | Link to Comment pragmatic hobo
pragmatic hobo's picture

I do believe Bernanke believes the economy is in recovery and everything is just dandy. After all isn't this the same guy who said the US housing market, where condos were being sold and resold within hours at the very height of the bubble, reflected "fundamental strength" in US economy. Bernanke is one of those guys who are book-smart but when you talk to them you realize he is a complete idiot. I have known few of those from MIT and Princeton before.

Wed, 06/19/2013 - 16:17 | Link to Comment TheMayor
TheMayor's picture

2 words for you

The Beach

Wed, 06/19/2013 - 16:27 | Link to Comment Tombstone
Tombstone's picture

Benny really is a nincompoop.  He has pumped and pumped until his mojo has gone limp and this is the best he can do over 4 years?  Both the FED and Washington are totally clueless because they have been forcing their central planning nonsense into a capitalistic system.  Now we have a corrupted system, taken to the cleaners by rotten bankers and brokers and a stealthy looking welfare state that really is the new job growth in this country.  Yikes, I can't stand this Kommunism BS any more...

Wed, 06/19/2013 - 16:56 | Link to Comment q99x2
q99x2's picture

FED doesn't care at all about a recovery. It's main objective was to buy time for the military industrial complex to position itself for the take down of the United States of America. And, secondly to transfer as much wealth from the private sector into the hands of the global elite.

That is it. If you think otherwise you are about to be "shocked."

Wed, 06/19/2013 - 16:58 | Link to Comment Racer
Racer's picture

Same as it ever was...

'sub-prime is well contained'

the fed will 'not monetise the debt'

Wed, 06/19/2013 - 17:23 | Link to Comment SkottFree
SkottFree's picture

"The conduct represented in the recently published article does not meet the standard that should be met by – set by a commanding general"

Well isn't that the pot calling the kettle black!

Wed, 06/19/2013 - 18:03 | Link to Comment robnume
robnume's picture

What a fucking FREAK this guy is. What fuckin' recovery? Get the fuck off of my planet, Helicopter Ben!!

Wed, 06/19/2013 - 18:28 | Link to Comment dale digler
dale digler's picture

I'm not sure that Bernanke has any intention to reduce his stimulus program. Big Ben is out in January,  Obama can be taken seriously in this regard in my opinion. He's likely to be followed by Yellen; a liberal monetary dove, she's a pumper.  QE isn't going anywhere until  the 2014 elections. Bernanke's got no further stake in the game, other than as a figurehead. He leaves with head held high as an economic savior, and can let his successor deal with the balance sheet and the  fall-out.

Big money stays fed, fat and happy, commodities go nowhere, dollar steady, and stocks boom. Stay in the U.S. Stay long on the Dow, 16,000 this year, 17,000 next. Don't fight the Fed, don't fight big money, no other market matters now. When your team has the biggest guns, the best ships, the best  fighter jets,  the best generals, the best programmers, the most money; you get to make  the rules. If you fight, you'll float. Don't fight. Follow the Fed, follow the money. 

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