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Collapse In Caterpillar North American Sales Not Helping Bernanke's "Recovery"

Tyler Durden's picture


Moments ago, Caterpillar released its May 2013 dealer statistics breaking down the 3-month rolling average for machine retail sales. Curiously, unlike in previous months when Asia/Pac (i.e. China) was the worst performing region on a year-over-year basis, in May it was the US that showed the worst results. Just how bad: retail sales in the US clocked at a -16% clip, just barely above the -18% drop in April, and only the second worst print in the past 3 years. And just to put the CAT dump in perspective, the chart below correlates CAT North American retail data with a 3 month delay in Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation: has CAT become the best leading proxy for corporate CapEx, and if so, just how much more negative does it have to get before the recession-watchers join the bond vigilantes in waking from hibernation?



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Thu, 06/20/2013 - 10:24 | Link to Comment hugovanderbubble
hugovanderbubble's picture

Big bearish divergence between DJTransportation and Industrials...

Thu, 06/20/2013 - 10:30 | Link to Comment Element
Element's picture

relax, it's just the 'beautiful deleveraging' kicking-in

Thu, 06/20/2013 - 10:51 | Link to Comment Joe Sixpack
Joe Sixpack's picture


Don't Worry...

It's just delev'rging;

Thu, 06/20/2013 - 10:25 | Link to Comment RacerX
RacerX's picture

Inverse Recovery

Thu, 06/20/2013 - 10:32 | Link to Comment yogibear
yogibear's picture

Brown and withered  dead shoots!

Thu, 06/20/2013 - 10:30 | Link to Comment ziggy59
ziggy59's picture

CAT is a dawg!

Thu, 06/20/2013 - 11:44 | Link to Comment BKbroiler
BKbroiler's picture


Thu, 06/20/2013 - 10:32 | Link to Comment Cursive
Cursive's picture

This is not a surprise to those of us in "Flyover Country."  BernanQE's regime of financial repression only inflated paper assets.  Paper balances.  Digital dollars.  Meanwhile, the economy has become sclerotic.  This is really gonna hurt.  Crash helmets, everyone.

Thu, 06/20/2013 - 13:00 | Link to Comment Winston Smith 2009
Winston Smith 2009's picture

I think it's just another manufactured hissy fit to sucker in fresh meat, not the beginning of the final plunge.  China, Japan, or the EU will trigger that.

Thu, 06/20/2013 - 10:33 | Link to Comment LFMayor
LFMayor's picture

Man, OT but now i've got some damn ad of a 19 year old stock wizard who looks like he's floggin his dog over at some penny stock website.

I want my columbian and thai beauties back.   So do i need to hit more PRON sites and get those cookies reordered?

Thu, 06/20/2013 - 10:36 | Link to Comment Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

Bernanke has nine lives  

Thu, 06/20/2013 - 10:37 | Link to Comment swissaustrian
swissaustrian's picture

CAT sales almost look like silver...

Thu, 06/20/2013 - 10:38 | Link to Comment insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

But they told us construction was way up???  And those knuckleheads on Gold Rush are always breaking their diggers so part sales should be way up.

Thu, 06/20/2013 - 10:40 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

But CNBS says the American economy is strong. Surely that bastion of truth can't be lying.

Thu, 06/20/2013 - 12:13 | Link to Comment foodstampbarry
foodstampbarry's picture

Steve Lies-man is a patriot. He's doing God's Work.

Thu, 06/20/2013 - 10:44 | Link to Comment yogibear
yogibear's picture

We haven't hit Cramer's tantrum/crying mode yet. The market hasn't dropped enough yet. A long long ways to go.

Thu, 06/20/2013 - 10:47 | Link to Comment Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

Why dig when you can mine the hedgefunds at COMEX?

Thu, 06/20/2013 - 10:48 | Link to Comment Son of Loki
Son of Loki's picture

People are scared -- no jobs, crashing stock markets, etc -- and scared people don't buy 'big ticket' costly items like tractors and houses.

Thu, 06/20/2013 - 10:49 | Link to Comment Jason T
Jason T's picture

Harley Davidson had a 12% decline in US salse in Q1 .. the list goes on and on .. meanwhile, Armstong is warning Oct. 1st, 2015 to be it.. US economy tanks from there.

Thu, 06/20/2013 - 10:54 | Link to Comment Youri Carma
Youri Carma's picture

- Mining-Equipment Maker Joy Global Sales Dropped 12%; cuts year view
- Caterpillar North America Sales Collapse Suggests US Economy Back To 2010 Levels
- Caterpillar leads declines in Q1 revenue for Dow components
- Tanker Rates Fall a Third Day as Glut Offsets Increased Charters
- Alstom, world’s third-largest power-equipment maker, Cuts Margin Forecast


Thu, 06/20/2013 - 13:34 | Link to Comment OutLookingIn
OutLookingIn's picture

One look at used, heavy equipment auction prices and events, will tell you what that chart says;

Those that are buying are buying used at bargain auction prices, because there is a lot of equipment supply coming from an industry that is under a large amount of stress.

Have I got a deal for you! A like new D-9 barely used, operated by a little old lady in her back garden...  

Thu, 06/20/2013 - 11:06 | Link to Comment Icewater Enema
Icewater Enema's picture

A precursor... Last week here in good old Milwaukee, CAT (via their division that was previously Bucyrus) announced the signing of a new contract with workers, then promptly announced the layoff of 200+ . Yes, Virginia, there are consequences.

Thu, 06/20/2013 - 11:34 | Link to Comment atomic180
atomic180's picture

Kill the Metals...Kill the Miners...Kill the Suppliers..etc etc etc... 

Thu, 06/20/2013 - 11:55 | Link to Comment franzpick
franzpick's picture

Oh no, now the treads are coming off.

Thu, 06/20/2013 - 12:03 | Link to Comment Monedas
Monedas's picture

Caterpillar meets Panzerfaust .... it's an old joke from the Russian front !

Thu, 06/20/2013 - 12:43 | Link to Comment mt paul
mt paul's picture

when you own a Cat

the world

is your litter box ...

Thu, 06/20/2013 - 12:57 | Link to Comment Flagit
Flagit's picture

how about a story on the rolling stone reporter?

the one there isnt enough left of to put IN a box.

i can see it now. he was training for a new olymipc event. the engine block toss.

Thu, 06/20/2013 - 13:11 | Link to Comment orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

POMO cures all.

Thu, 06/20/2013 - 13:26 | Link to Comment conspicio
conspicio's picture

Amazing we can have a chart about CAT without a word on the IAM union bullshit they have had to deal with in what is an overwhelmingly pro union state on the edge of insolvency. Of course, the Canadian issues are still festering as well. Labor is a huge funtion of CATs problem, not just sales. As for management, Oberhelman’s salary has been outrageously bumped in a time when a 100% bump was unnecessary. CAT needs to move out of Illinois and take advantage of more competitive and incentivized markets elsewhere. Still liking the TEX long long long, lol...

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