Collapse In Caterpillar North American Sales Not Helping Bernanke's "Recovery"

Tyler Durden's picture


Moments ago, Caterpillar released its May 2013 dealer statistics breaking down the 3-month rolling average for machine retail sales. Curiously, unlike in previous months when Asia/Pac (i.e. China) was the worst performing region on a year-over-year basis, in May it was the US that showed the worst results. Just how bad: retail sales in the US clocked at a -16% clip, just barely above the -18% drop in April, and only the second worst print in the past 3 years. And just to put the CAT dump in perspective, the chart below correlates CAT North American retail data with a 3 month delay in Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation: has CAT become the best leading proxy for corporate CapEx, and if so, just how much more negative does it have to get before the recession-watchers join the bond vigilantes in waking from hibernation?


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Thu, 06/20/2013 - 10:24 | 3675117 hugovanderbubble
hugovanderbubble's picture

Big bearish divergence between DJTransportation and Industrials...

Thu, 06/20/2013 - 10:30 | 3675128 Element
Element's picture

relax, it's just the 'beautiful deleveraging' kicking-in

Thu, 06/20/2013 - 10:51 | 3675223 Joe Sixpack
Joe Sixpack's picture


Don't Worry...

It's just delev'rging;

Thu, 06/20/2013 - 10:25 | 3675118 RacerX
RacerX's picture

Inverse Recovery

Thu, 06/20/2013 - 10:32 | 3675120 yogibear
yogibear's picture

Brown and withered  dead shoots!

Thu, 06/20/2013 - 10:30 | 3675132 ziggy59
ziggy59's picture

CAT is a dawg!

Thu, 06/20/2013 - 11:44 | 3675453 BKbroiler
BKbroiler's picture


Thu, 06/20/2013 - 10:32 | 3675137 Cursive
Cursive's picture

This is not a surprise to those of us in "Flyover Country."  BernanQE's regime of financial repression only inflated paper assets.  Paper balances.  Digital dollars.  Meanwhile, the economy has become sclerotic.  This is really gonna hurt.  Crash helmets, everyone.

Thu, 06/20/2013 - 13:00 | 3675662 Winston Smith 2009
Winston Smith 2009's picture

I think it's just another manufactured hissy fit to sucker in fresh meat, not the beginning of the final plunge.  China, Japan, or the EU will trigger that.

Thu, 06/20/2013 - 10:33 | 3675146 LFMayor
LFMayor's picture

Man, OT but now i've got some damn ad of a 19 year old stock wizard who looks like he's floggin his dog over at some penny stock website.

I want my columbian and thai beauties back.   So do i need to hit more PRON sites and get those cookies reordered?

Thu, 06/20/2013 - 10:36 | 3675164 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

Bernanke has nine lives  

Thu, 06/20/2013 - 10:37 | 3675170 swissaustrian
swissaustrian's picture

CAT sales almost look like silver...

Thu, 06/20/2013 - 10:38 | 3675174 insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

But they told us construction was way up???  And those knuckleheads on Gold Rush are always breaking their diggers so part sales should be way up.

Thu, 06/20/2013 - 10:40 | 3675177 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

But CNBS says the American economy is strong. Surely that bastion of truth can't be lying.

Thu, 06/20/2013 - 12:13 | 3675404 foodstampbarry
foodstampbarry's picture

Steve Lies-man is a patriot. He's doing God's Work.

Thu, 06/20/2013 - 10:44 | 3675196 yogibear
yogibear's picture

We haven't hit Cramer's tantrum/crying mode yet. The market hasn't dropped enough yet. A long long ways to go.

Thu, 06/20/2013 - 10:47 | 3675204 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

Why dig when you can mine the hedgefunds at COMEX?

Thu, 06/20/2013 - 10:48 | 3675206 Son of Loki
Son of Loki's picture

People are scared -- no jobs, crashing stock markets, etc -- and scared people don't buy 'big ticket' costly items like tractors and houses.

Thu, 06/20/2013 - 10:49 | 3675209 Jason T
Jason T's picture

Harley Davidson had a 12% decline in US salse in Q1 .. the list goes on and on .. meanwhile, Armstong is warning Oct. 1st, 2015 to be it.. US economy tanks from there.

Thu, 06/20/2013 - 10:54 | 3675241 Youri Carma
Youri Carma's picture

- Mining-Equipment Maker Joy Global Sales Dropped 12%; cuts year view
- Caterpillar North America Sales Collapse Suggests US Economy Back To 2010 Levels
- Caterpillar leads declines in Q1 revenue for Dow components
- Tanker Rates Fall a Third Day as Glut Offsets Increased Charters
- Alstom, world’s third-largest power-equipment maker, Cuts Margin Forecast


Thu, 06/20/2013 - 13:34 | 3675817 OutLookingIn
OutLookingIn's picture

One look at used, heavy equipment auction prices and events, will tell you what that chart says;

Those that are buying are buying used at bargain auction prices, because there is a lot of equipment supply coming from an industry that is under a large amount of stress.

Have I got a deal for you! A like new D-9 barely used, operated by a little old lady in her back garden...  

Thu, 06/20/2013 - 11:06 | 3675309 Icewater Enema
Icewater Enema's picture

A precursor... Last week here in good old Milwaukee, CAT (via their division that was previously Bucyrus) announced the signing of a new contract with workers, then promptly announced the layoff of 200+ . Yes, Virginia, there are consequences.

Thu, 06/20/2013 - 11:34 | 3675419 atomic180
atomic180's picture

Kill the Metals...Kill the Miners...Kill the Suppliers..etc etc etc... 

Thu, 06/20/2013 - 11:55 | 3675494 franzpick
franzpick's picture

Oh no, now the treads are coming off.

Thu, 06/20/2013 - 12:03 | 3675515 Monedas
Monedas's picture

Caterpillar meets Panzerfaust .... it's an old joke from the Russian front !

Thu, 06/20/2013 - 12:43 | 3675614 mt paul
mt paul's picture

when you own a Cat

the world

is your litter box ...

Thu, 06/20/2013 - 12:57 | 3675659 Flagit
Flagit's picture

how about a story on the rolling stone reporter?

the one there isnt enough left of to put IN a box.

i can see it now. he was training for a new olymipc event. the engine block toss.

Thu, 06/20/2013 - 13:11 | 3675715 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

POMO cures all.

Thu, 06/20/2013 - 13:26 | 3675773 conspicio
conspicio's picture

Amazing we can have a chart about CAT without a word on the IAM union bullshit they have had to deal with in what is an overwhelmingly pro union state on the edge of insolvency. Of course, the Canadian issues are still festering as well. Labor is a huge funtion of CATs problem, not just sales. As for management, Oberhelman’s salary has been outrageously bumped in a time when a 100% bump was unnecessary. CAT needs to move out of Illinois and take advantage of more competitive and incentivized markets elsewhere. Still liking the TEX long long long, lol...

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