This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Liquidation - Stocks, Bonds, Commodities Collapse
Since we lost the deer yesterday as it was run over by bond sellers, it appears everyone else came to the realization that QE cannot be infinite, that EU event risk never went away, and that China does have a credit bubble and so it is time for the monkey. Where-ever we look today there is carnage. The superlatives are all extreme but are the biggest since Europe collapsed in October/November 2011 (preceding the coordinated global central bank bailout) - 1-day and 2-day drops in stocks the biggest in 19 months, Gold and Silver's second largest 1-day drop in 20 months, investment-grade and high-yield credit's worst 1-day and 2-day widening in 19 months, EM currencies (e.g. MXN) worst day in 19 months, Copper's worst day in 19 months, and the heaviest volume day in S&P futures in 20 months. While stocks closed at the lows of the day, Treasuries did see some buying come in the last hour or so - which appears to be safe-haven scrambling - and EUR weakness (post IMF) was trumped by JPY strength (unwinds) to drag the USD off its highs into the close.
Stocks are broadly down 3.5% to 4% since the FOMC...
With the S&P futures down 4.4% from yesterday's highs and having their highest volume in 20 months...
and housing names the hardest hit (even with today's positive news - since good is now ultimately bad)...
While stocks (above) closed at their lows, Treasuries were modestly bid in the last hour or so (as the plethora of bond gurus emerged to explain how the Fed will never leave)...
FX markets were once again on fire (though EM more so than the majors)...
Gold, Silver, and Copper (China!!) were destroyed... ending at their lows...
VIX broke above 21% today - up over 4 vols - its highest close of the year...
We would imagine more than a few margin clerks will be busy tonight...
(h/t @Not_Jim_Cramer)
Charts: Bloomberg and Capital Context
Bonus Chart: Bonds have 'collapsed' to equities' exuberance but without the support of the Fed - will they both revert (as they always have) to macro-fundamentals?
Bonus Bonus Chart: Where's The Yield Maria?
»
- 30907 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
upload an update hindemburg omen chart please
Meh, i can't muster the energy to feel sorry for anyone that hasn't realized financial or commodity markets are a scam. If 2008-2009 didn't wake people up then they will deserve what is coming. The tomatoes in my garden are delicious and my peppers will be ripe in a couple of days and that affects me more than scary looking charts ever could.
I'm a PM holder and don't have a garden to cheer me up, so I nipped over to King World News instead.
It's all good, apparently, for us holders of PMs; according to James Turk (not sure if he's 'out of Spain' at this time) we are heading into the very 'Eye of the Hurricane'!
Which is odd, really, because I always thought the eye of the hurricane was the quiet bit.
Copper chart is looking very ugly.
Hubba hubba hubba - who ya gonna trust? Dr. Bernanke or Dr. Copper?
I'll stick with Dr. C thank you very much.
VIX is your friend out here. This is bat country.
This is how the epic fail will play out:
All the shorts have been found and squeezed. Now all the longs will get destroyed. Everyone ends up losing. This is the first collapse everyone saw coming and yet still got wiped out.
I agree.
IDK - my PM meter is swinging solidly into the "buy" range right now.
Only thing I'm not sure about is whether to split my dry powder and dollar-cost-average some, or just go all in. . .
"Our largest worry concerning the ETFs is that the paper price of the asset overshoots the limits of the physical supply and a COMEX default occurs. The paper markets (ETFs, contracts, derivatives, etc) can move the silver price much faster than the physical market, and if they move them too far and too fast, the demand in the physical market may cause more deliveries than is supported by actual physical stocks and force parties to default on delivery obligations. This would reverberate in the market and would cause a rush from paper to physical and a surge in the physical price, which is not a situation where an investor wants to own the paper equivalent of the commodity."
It's finally dawning on these buffoons that owning paper is not the same as owning physical ... LMFAO ... and these idiots are now realizing there is no "paper equivalent" of a precious metal
Just wanted to note that this selloff came in spite of a $3+ billion POMO day today.
http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/tot_operation_schedule.html
Tomorrow not likely to be pretty.
PM's won't mean dick if this bitch completely rolls... nice to hedge against fiat IF the system continues, but with the totality of everything involved, me thinks this bitch implodes and then goes nuke...
gold will do fine during a nuclear winter.
With your skeletal remains still clutching it, as a cock roach scampers over your hand, up your humerus, and out through your orbital socket? ;)
and a rifle in the other, boney hand ;)
Hahahahahahaha
If things completely roll-over - that's what you've also got guns and grub for (right?). OTOH - I don't think we're close to a total societal collapse just yet. Just another leg down - probably bigger than last time though.
Correction: empty rifle in my boney hand..
I like your sense of humour, like the dancing bear too. Someone should make a animated gif of him.
keep in mind gold is an alpha radiation deflector and lead is a gamma radiation deflector. beta radiation (electrons) can be deflected with various materials and deflected with magnetic fields.
In an actual "nuclear winter" maybe you'd be lucky enough to keep crops under cover & safe-ish though one key question arises:
where does your water come from? That pretty much is key.
It's always "good" news at King World News. Sort of like going to disneyland.
Did the Plung Protection Team go on vacation? Maybe they retired, wealthy as they are...
This anin't shit...TLT was -3% at one point...-2% close...whoopdedo
"Anin't" ain't a word.
and yet here you are...
yes, here I am. Keeping up with the news and killing time at work...
Damn straight! Here in the Puget Sound area, my honeybees are going full-bore on the blackberry blossoms, the peas and greens are abundant, the corn, tomatoes, peppers, melons, cukes and squash are doing great, and crabbing season is about to open. I've never seen such a vigorous potato crop! Livin' off the fat of the land, I tell ya! (There's no iPhone app for that, BTW)
+1 for healthy bee colonies.
Mead is good shit, too. =]
I made blackberry wine last year, it was really good, and I'm planning on stepping up my efforts in a major way this year. So I get to keep the cake and eat it too: first as honey from the blossom nectar, then as alcohol from the fruit. What a splendid arrangement!
Good stuff! As soon as that blackberry wine is done, you could likely drop some honey-water onto the remaining wine/champagne yeast culture and let it ferment out into mead. I'd imagine you could even sweeten it with some of your leftover berries. (Apologies if you already know this, and if not here's a guide -- basically boil and then cool ~1-1.5 quarts honey per gallon of water http://www.homebrewing.org/How-to-Make-Mead_ep_40-1.html )
You do not have to cook the honey, it already has anti-bacterial agents in it. Use distilled water and you won't have to boil the water either.
No kidding on the 'taters huh? I'm in N. Seattle and my potatos are going CRAZY too. Best crop I've ever had w/o doing anything special at all.
Of course my tomatoes are doing absolutley nothing - so here's my plug for diversity in planting.
I'm in Kingston. This is my first year with a greenhouse -- an old carport I covered with real greenhouse-grade plastic (not the visqueen crap from a hardware store) -- and the difference is huge, even with past experience using hoop tunnels. Past attempts with tomatoes have been lackluster and melons have been non-existent. Not so this year.
Wow! I'm very happy for you folks and your results thus far. I was in Nebraska last year and hardly anything would grow at all. 95-100 degrees with no rain, every day it seemed from late April til late September, except for that one night right before the tornado came along...and it was just as bad for most of the midwest.
Keep it up, guys. There's nothin' like the I-made-this-and-now-I'm-gonna-have-it moment. =]
Ugh. I grew up on the Colorado Front Range so I feel your pain. Hot and dry as hell in the summer. It reliably rained (or hailed) in the afternoon every few days or so 20 years ago - not so anymore. In western WA we get maybe a few days above 90 but the humidity is moderated by the marine air. No rain here from July to Sept or October, but plenty of time and precip before that to establish strong, deep root systems. Learning how to (mostly) dry garden - at least for the summer crops - is just as important here as it is elsewhere.
Right on. I just moved back to southern IL (not far from KY) and have to skip this year b/c I'm in an apartment now. Plus, the frosts persisted deep into April, so that hampered a lotta folks here. By next year, though, I plan on having some space to work with. Bees, beets, and beasts if I'm lucky, lol. We'll see.
Best to y'all this year!
Huh? The investors which bought equities early in this rally are up over 100%. It's a little silly to be smug because they gave a small percentage back. We have a long way to go before we can dish out schadenfreude.
small percentage back? They probably will just barely break even to what they had at 2007 at best. You seem to be forgetting these same people lost their shirts DURING the crash down to 2009 and didn't make enough in % gains OR income to make up the losses.
@JeremyWS
http://t.co/Ro7Cw1pSZp
[via Tyler's tweet around 3:30]
cheers must have missed it on the twitter
Summer Solistice in the Year of the Serpent (Snake) set to begin tomorrow...
.
The Sun-gods and its pagan worshippers will be happy.
Bonfire, wine & nudity tonight. And deet, since I am in Canada.
God Bless the Black Fly!
Isn't that the national bird up there?
pods
A long time ago, I was driving along the West Branch of the Penobscot River in northern Maine in my Volkswagon bus. Stopped at the Big Eddy, went around to the back and opened the hatch. Well, you know? The rear window was covered about half an inch thick with black flies. Black flies are something that, if you haven't experienced 'em in person, there's just no way to explain it.
Fuck the deer, give 'em the ape.
said like a chimp!
Lousy recording of a good scene involving ape’ing a commodities scammer.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x07BKBdjIak
..and how Senators get their start.
tapering is not happening or the entire world will be a smoking hole in the ground. QE will be expanded you can count on that. http://tinyurl.com/mem7o7x
And when QE is increased, that's when you'll see the mother of all selloff's because at that point, the perception that the Fed has everything under control will be revealed for exactly what it is, BULLSHIT.
Nothing but a smoke and mirrors illusion.The real shitstorm is about to hit when everyone bolts for the locked door at once.
There are so many fucking fools out there. I tried last week to warn one of the retail investor sheep. Nope, he was not having any of it. Just ignore the downside, long term investing is his key. Yep, I said "How do you invest in cassion gambling where you are the sucker and the elites are the House"?
So many others still believe in the power of markets to price discover and reward value investing. Value? Fucking Fed is the Value, they are the Market.
And is it not about time the cracks start to show in the entire liquidity debt drive fake recovery. Europe ain't coming back. Canada and OZ are in early stage blowup. And christ himself doesn't know what really is the state of China's rigged economy with an ocean of shadow banking debt on short term rollover".
Europe screwed. Britain screwed, Oz screwed, Canada screwed. The middle east locked in a holy war crusade and muslim civil war. Brazil and Turkey coming unglued. The USA a giant fake money printing whore. And China the worlds greatest question mark.
Surely a "Value Investor" has a chance of good rewards for picking stocks.
folks just don't understand the difference of money (as in the capital of previously called capitalism) vs credit layered with massive leverage layered with credit derivatives...they see a Dow # and think I want me some of that...my father in law has millions w/ his financial guru who has him believing trees grow to the sky and 8% infinite growth ain't no issue (neverming the finite world we live in).
Whats not to like?
I'm in cash and PM. Waiting for the buyng oppertunities which should appear in about Three to nine months.
Yup.
Stop the printing and everything folds up.
All the rest is smoke and mirrors.
Mr. Bernak your chopper is ready.
Smoke On The Water ~ Deep Purple with Lyrics
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qRCt4H0mcCk
Keep printing = no tier 1 capital, liquidity crisis, shit is fucked.
Less/No printing = bonds implode, IR swaps crisis, shit is fucked.
Its funny, I always think of interest rates from the perspective of what effect it will have on banks (i.e. having to lend reserves) and the economy, while forgetting the clusterfuck that is Interest Rate Swaps!
Didn't a lot of the WS firms essentially BET that rates would stay low?
"Didn't a lot of the WS firms essentially BET that rates would stay low?"
Yes. They also sold a bunch of this toxic shit to pension funds and local/state governments (early preview of effect = Birmingham, AL). Sound familiar?
... Oops
The shitstorm has cometh.
Funny the "money has go somewhere" meme - when the market is at record long leverage, that isn't money but credit. So credit blows up and goes away...not moving to something else. Unwinds are a bitch for those wound up in em...think getting Maytag'ed when you thought you'd play in the surf but waves got way bigger than you realized...and usually they come in sets and this is just the first.
Black Friday on the Summer Solstice tomorrow?
As much as we've been trained to look for the urgent buyers or PPT and the like to save the market...I really think you could be right. I'm not positioned for it so I doubly think your right!!!
how appropriate brotha pig.......hehehhe.....criminal baastids
Correct..every dollar of credit that goes away is another dollar that evaporated from the system.
Maybe it sublimated.
Lumber futures chart was funny as fuck today.
http://www.finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=LB&p=m5
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RCDap49W2Zw timberrrrr!
Exactly, a lot of people don't get it on a day like today - "how are all asset prices going down, isn't there a flight to safety in something"?
But as you say, there is no money, just leverage, and when the leverage is taken down, it just disappears - there was no money behind it.
I have said it before on this site - it isn't just equities, you should see the massive leverage some of these mortgage REITs have. They are going to implode as rates keep rising.
In't it called cashola?
My VXX is up :)
Monkey? Monkey? I'm a fucking gorilla, you clown!
The gorilla my dreams, to be precise
This is one example to understand that ...money can literally vanish into nothing, hence EVERYTHING can go down.
It's a collateral based system.
It comes from nothing, goes to nothing, and what do you got ? Nothing.
Very true
Nothin' from nothin' leaves nothin' - Billy Preston. Enjoy!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OuaG-TCpbtw
Excellent, thanks
I distinctly remember reading a passage in The Creature from Jekyll Island where Griffin says the following, then I had the "oh, shit moment when one realizes he's just had an epiphany.
MONEY WOULD VANISH WITHOUT DEBTIt is difficult for Americans to come to grips with the fact that their total money-supply is backed by nothing but debt, and it is even more mind boggling to visualize that, if everyone paid back all that was borrowed, there would be no money left in existence.
That's right, there would not be one penny in circulation – all coins and all paper currency would be returned to bank vaults – and there would be not one dollar in any one's checking account. In short, all money would disappear.
Worthless script may vanish but silver and gold seem to endure, for thousands and thousands of years. How is it that we have been taught that debt is money? Inflating a promisory currency backed by, ahem, good intentions is theft plain and simple. Most people can't do the math to prove this to themselves so the charade goes on.
"It's a collateral based system." - yes, therein lies the rub. Mind if I see that collateral motherfucker? So many paper promises and "mark to fantasy" accounting, so little assets and collateral of real fucking value...
Just as it can be created from nothing.
This is one example to understand that ...money can literally vanish into nothing, hence EVERYTHING can go down.
It's a collateral based system.
Yep, but not ALL things can go to ZERO.
How can people not realizing what is going on?
Everything is f***** up.
Epic collapse.
Let's welcome the Monkey.
"It's on like Donkey Kong"
LOL!
Wonder what QE5 will be...
QE5 will be 'You suckers actually believed us? Huh...sucks to be you....well you and your 401K/pension are now on your own'.
It will be more like "you and your pension/401K are belong to us!" (You will buy Gov't paper whether you like it or not!)
these wall st bankers aint see anything yet. this was nothing, 2 percent plus downwards on only words and no action, imagine when bernanke actually takes action, this will seem like a picnic.
this is great. i am a bit concerned ( and i hope i am wrong) that tomorrow we may see a bit of green. i hope china implodes tonight and then we prob will see a lot more red.
hopefully gold and silver bounce back, but i used this as a buying opp.
We did a 30% retracement last go round (2007-08) from that high. I am betting on at least that or more. I don't need the cash for anything and I have cash. None of the fundamentals for Gold and Silver have changed. Deflation, then inflation.
yes, no society/currency has ever collapsed/died because it's purchasing power was too strong.
Thats what it comes down to. If the USD gets really strong, guess what, they will print money to take advantage of the fact!
When the banks start lending those reserves... Whether its for M&A, commercial loans, personal loans, auto loans, CRE... Thats when things get nasty/terminal.
I like your enthusiasm ! but somebody with your handle hardly needs reminding...the CB`s ARE still in control. They may be letting some air out of the balloon, but face ripping rally's
can be unleashed by the all seeing eye in a nano second.
How much air are they going to let out? are they going to sacrifice an insurance company or another PD ? I have no idea. But they ARE still in control.
Even if `the masses` now see QE for the insiders enrichment scheme it is - I doubt the CB`s and their controllers give a damn. They still hold the aces...I mean printing pressses.
Be nimble
If the dollar continues to strengthen and stays that way, the US government is MASSIVELY indebted. Which results in?
If the dollar weakens, it is likely to lose reserve currency status. Its a choice between the currency or the government. Most have said the currency will lose out. First by deflation (we are living it), and then inflation.
Nah, there's no choice, that's merely a false dichotomy. BOTH will be destroyed in order to be rebuilt more to "their" liking. The "choice" is merely the means to ensure those ends.
I think the elites knew a collapse was coming (they did engineer the system, and have the most experience with usury and fractional reserve banking and fiat, after all). But I think they want to control the collapse. I'm not convinced they are in as much control as they think/claim.
So if its really a question of control, then one wonders will they be more 'in control' after currency crisis, or less 'in control'. Since currency crisis means losing faith in government, banks, etc (that is not easily restored) I think they will be less 'in control'.
It's funny that more don't realize this, given everything has been scripted for the downfall of The Bernank.
When it was announced a couple of months ago that he wouldn't be attending the circle-jerk at the J-hole, it was obvious that something was going to drastically change between now and then.
Ben is now officially a lame-duck, by design. So that means no Fed rescue until he's gone. Which means maximum pain in the meantime until "the people" beg for drastic measures to be reinstated (even though they won't work either).
It's nothing more than a ratcheting effect, where they buy time while waiting for the next opportunity to plunder. Because, as everyone knows, nothing moves in a straight line.
This coming 'price discovery' period is going to be a real skull splitter hangover. No real people are willing to buy any of this FED pumped crap until FAR lower.
Someone explain to me why the recent drop in gold and silver. Everything else I can understand, but if the Chair Satan has vowed to keep printing it means even worse furture inflation and should mean gold prices would be going up, not down. Well, I'm still going to believe in what Ron Paul recently said, gold will go to infinity in the near future
You need to ask Jamie Dimon's handlers.
Fed prints $85 billion in a world of trillions. They control nothing. It's called deflation. You sell anything you can for what you can get.
However, they can "print" 850 billion, or 8.5 trillion in seconds. Just takes a few keystrokes on the computer. Or they can set the printer to ramming speed and make 85 billion a month seem like chump change. If they let the stawk market tank, the people will be BEGGING for QE. I don't mind some deflation, costs less to fill my car.
Hyper inflation has the same end result.
The Fed can put as many zeros behind a number as it likes. They chose to make it 9 zeros.
It has to be more complex than that. When the Chair Satan announced nothing has or will change, then why the mass dump the next day. By whom, and who is buying? Is there ANYONE still buying paper gold? This seems more coordinated, and is in defiance of what economic principles tell us should be happening.
I believe more people were listening to Kyle Bass than Bernanke yesterday.
Hence, denial was outted. The 'real' world slaps ya in the face.
Its called liquidation
Perhaps, but people who buy gold aren't buying it to sell it off. They are in it for the long haul. China had a line 10,000 people long last week to buy gold. If they're selling off paper gold, who is buying it? With QE infinity announced, gold should be going up unless this is anotehr dump on gold by the Fed.
The leverage is fleeing the building first. Once that is bled off, which could be substantial, gold and silver will catch a bid.
Everybody may be rushing to dump thier paper.
Which I thought of, but who is buying it? Why now and all of a sudden?
The consensus around here seems to be the Fed, other central banks maybe, too, and their various minions, lackeys, and enablers.
"Someone explain to me why the recent drop in gold and silver"
Once again, here is the most likely explanation.
well what else did you see? Did you see more contracts hit the market without explanation? Or did you see people panic out of everything that's not cash?
Is that bear doing the Macerena?
That bear knows how to dance.
was this ben "testing" the market????? was it his way of slowing down irrational exuberance????? does he really feel the economy is better and can stand on its own??????
I suppose he could actually be completely insane and believe some of that.
Bernanke is going to hold a press conference next week and say nothing. He will put out his hand and everyone will come up kiss it and beg him tp come back.
speaking of kissing the hand of the godfather, im so bummed about james gandolfini.....put a dent in my day...............
My condolences.
My favorate funny line from the Sopranos was.... Tony telling his sister Yes Janice, it is my business, since I took your last boyfriend out in a hefty bag.
Maybe he'll say "stocks always go up. It's tradition"
Look how much stronger the economy's gotten since Ben spoke yesterday! If he was puzzled yesterday, think how puzzled he must be now.
if it was a test, then we should see some lackluster economic numbers over the coming weeks. this will be the excuse to take taper off the table...for now
You give BB way too much credit.
See 3676570, didn't see this comment first.
"...does he really feel the economy is better and can stand on its own??????"
No, but he has to act like he's not having his strings pulled by the bond market, which is what is happening.
was this ben "testing" the market????? was it his way of slowing down irrational exuberance????? does he really feel the economy is better and can stand on its own??????
This was a test, Benny can read the real stats, and he knows how screwed we really are.There is NO recovery.
A solid close as the S&P is well off it's lows, rallying .25% (off a drop of 44), and bonds got a solid bid with the 10 year yield down .1% (from the high of the day). Meanwhile, speculative assets like GLD and SLV were sold as speculators came to their senses and abandoned the 'fast money' trade, and assets fit only for old jews to sew into their clothes (edit - h/t Charlie Munger).
I'm seeing 1 billion shares traded on the DOW, 2 billion on the NASDAQ - sounds like a lot (?).
Beef, it's what's for dinner.
Bernanke getting what he wants here. Everyone has been saying the market is too high for conditions, and he's taking out some froth while doing nothing but talking about tapering in the future.
Now he can backtrack on the taper talk whenever he likes and the market will have room to run again...he hopes.
I was thinking $1250 looked like a good entry point to start adding to my very small gold position.
Signs (Five Man Electrical Band)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z1Q7cP3ij5g
That was fun! Can we do it again tomorrow? And the next day? And the next day? And...
I'd say there's about a 75% chance the market will be ramped back up at least 300 or 400 pts by next Weds. Back over 15K. The past 2 days will be Down the Memory Hole like they never happened and it will be Happy Days Are Here Again on CNBS, Faux Biz and Bloomboig...
Gold and silver will be held down at these new lower levels to allow shorts to continue to cover. BTFD bitches.
omfg...stock analysts on CNBC using "vastly oversold" and "dry powder" and "buying opportunity" jingoisms.
WELL OFF THE LOWS, WELL OFF THE LOWS! SQUAWK! WELL OFF THE LOWS! POLLY WANT A CRACKER! SQUAWK!
Who do they think they're convincing to buy at this point....the E-Trade baby?
E-Trade Baby Loses Everything - YouTube
Be careful – Squawk Box™ is trademarked. Keep it up, and a Cease and Desist order will be delivered shortly.
About gold right?
CNBS stock anal cysts.
if copper drops below $2 I'm buying me a big roll of roofing sheet copper
On the bright side, at least we aren't talking about how the government has bugged every single electronic device in existence?
pods
Really? When did they start doing that?
I"m heading to the survival bunker as soon as the delivery boy shows up with my two liter, wings, and x-large supreme.
Holy shit! Is that a dancing polar bear?
Five years worth of "wealth effect" getting wiped out in days. Good job Ben! Mission fucking accomplished.
Yeah, we were a little puzzled by that.
:D
pods
China's supercomputer online? - Check
Big B Meeting done? - Check
Taper is panicking the wolves? - Check
Big B disinfo released to the tinfoilers? - Check
Russia launched massive Propaganda Campaign? - Check
Bankers quit who were on the hook? - Check
List of Markets rigged by co-operative Game theorems all released? - Almost Check
ME shock? - Almost Check
Mass Population Unrest? - Almost Check
HFT percentage from 70% -> 100%? - Almost Check
Skynet Aware? - Almost Check
It's Happening!
(p.s. This post is purely for humor and bears no relation, living or dead, to the current state of the markets, reality, the price of fish or your spiderman towel warranty. Trading on this basis will produce the same results as any major Financial Adviser group given current market conditions)