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Now... Assume No Fed
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Looks bullish to me so i buy buy buy mooooooore
I think we continue to crash...and to top it all off, immigration will be passed on July 4th. Happy Independence day!
<sarcasm>
I hope you awful, awful Austrians are proud of yourselves. All Ben wanted was to save the world from a deflationary collapse and you went and infiltrated the highest offices in the world to take away his mandate and replace it with horrible horrible austerity.
History will remember it was you and not the Keynsians who stole affordable everything from all of our children.
</sarcasm - or is it???>
"Deflation" is something to be wished for by anyone with cash.
Indeed it is. Though I think if that cash is in the bank, it may soon be redeployed by our most learned economic experts for the common good.
You wouldn't stand in the way of helping the common man.... right?....
I read somewhere that the extended .gov guarentees for money market and savings accounts, announced to stem the runs in '08 will expire January 2014.
Or a brain...
Possibly, but only 3% of people actually have cash. All the rest have a sizable investment in their favourite bank, who have kindly supplied them with an account and credit facility.
Just another ploy by the fed to scare the masses into selling and raising cash for this weekends Cyprusing of bank accounts.
Speaking of the Cyprus co-op bank: http://cyprus-mail.com/central-co-op-bank-boss-resigns/
Between hot money leaving the Chinese market and stealth bailouts by the gov required, to IMF bailing on Greece and the long hot summer starting punctuated with Syria and Turkey... I am long hand grenades.
Save your whiskey bottles and rags.
pods
Although anecdotal, Widowmaker has heard three (THREE) different stories of people liquidating their IRA's in the last week and a half.
Someone put a bullet in confidence and even the stupid "savers" are tired of being gutted by racketeering and Fascist bailouts all around.
Just wow.
Hasn't anyone heard of Inverse ETFs?
Look at ERY (energy) and FAZ (financials) for the last 3 days.
An IRA can buy in and out, just like any other stock.
You just proved their point.
And when enough muppets are short/long levered short ETFs, then what do you think will happen?
Can't have the avg. investor making money, now can they!
I like how this conversation is about how to trade yet because the common man fails to take time to learn finance he is a "sheep". But then, then, then you discuss inverse ETFs, which every Boomer has heard of, and tell how this, this is the trade!
How about everyone who reads blogs other than Zero Hedge is as smart as all of you and finance ain't that hard. Reading this blog makes me think you guess know some secret to making money. So how are all of your portfolios?
Bitches.
Barry Sotoro don't give a crap.
He is getting ready to head to Africa for a $100 million dollar safari / photo op.
1oz buffalo's and 10oz bars $ 0.99 over spot.
http://www.gainesvillecoins.com/category/470/generic-silver-bars.aspx
tapering is not happening or the entire world will be a smoking hole in the ground. QE will be expanded you can count on that. http://tinyurl.com/mem7o7x
let it burn to the ground
That will exspose the useless eaters.
Buy the dip Bernanke. You stupid sob.
800 * 1.02 * .90 = 734
Price of S&P 500 with no Fed.
"market" to Ben: MO' POMO, YO' HOMO
All the Fed's POMO,
and all the PPT's men,
could'nt make the S & P rise yet.again.
Margin calls bitchez.
Tomorrow will be a bloodbath.
wait..didnt all the longs get paid fed dollars for margin rebates on the way up?
Back by... what? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6VYxQ8PfKVU
I thought Ben had that "flop sweat" look yesterday. And there was just the tiniest quiver in his voice. Now we know why.
And we are off the blows. I mean lows
hmmm...does this mean that Obama is innocent of offences under the ear piece and teleprompters act 2045?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-22988215
Somebody is buying the dip before the close.
min -30 if no fed.
Max...
I have yet to hear about volume; I asume it's high (?).
Chart may not be so "low left to high right", but it'd be a better mechanism for the real economy for cap creation & actual working fundamental instruments.
Monetary Fraud's a hellava drug
A 50% haircut sounds pretty sweet!
Indices down 2%, shorts made 100s of millions, only 10 minutes of short-covering, and now the last minute knife-catchers are giving up? I'm underwhelmed...
DJIA 0.
Why don't you think owning a corporation through stock will be worth anything?
Anything??
What is the trade here? Not gold, surely it has a fork in it. Bonds? 2.3%?
Yep, it's time for the deer. Maybe Tyler can use it for a after-the-close bloodbath summary.
The deer would look great in place of the injured Wall St. bull:
http://www.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/images/2004/12/22/22_12_2004_street%2520bull.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page%3Dstory_22-12-2004_pg9_3&h=231&w=250&sz=13&tbnid=1PdbBfJRtvLKUM:&tbnh=102&tbnw=110&prev=/search%3Fq%3Dthe%2Bwall%2Bst%2Bbull%2Bstatue%26tbm%3Disch%26tbo%3Du&zoom=1&q=the+wall+st+bull+statue&usg=__WHivl96ZF_poCeqxcDDjBeawuBA=&docid=hL8OLA5Icuv3MM&sa=X&ei=OmHDUZDvHseCiAKYyIDoDg&ved=0CEMQ9QEwBA&dur=4972#imgdii=1PdbBfJRtvLKUM%3A%3BbgEijUJM9g_5zM%3B1PdbBfJRtvLKUM%3A
Is this Thursday or Prechterday?
Die Stocks, DIE!
I know you've been around as long as I have, but your comment epitomizes everything that is wrong with Doomster Ideology.
I have no stocks in my portfolio now, so I am not talking my book. That being said, the system we have allows capital to be aggregated so that good ideas of capital poor-individuals get funded, which leads to both gainful employment and consumer products. An ongoing concern, if managed well, is about the best place for a person to store and grow his wealth, since an ongoing concern has---by definition---both pricing power and the ability to charge for its product in whatever the societal means of exchange is. In other words, it is a better store of wealth than shiny metals.
I wrote this comment a while back, but I'll repeat (since repetition ad nauseum is now a hallmark of ZH Comments): I visited a farm in south India a while back. It has been producing food for 5000 years (which means long before petroleum-based fertilizers). Go back to that time and consider the choice: put wealth in gold, or wealth into the land. The gold would still exist today, but so what? That same gold couldn't buy the land today it could 5000 years ago, employed no one over those 5000 years, and produced nothing over the period. The farm employed workers, provided food both to eat and to sell for a profit, and it is worth far far more now than the gold it took to buy it 5000 years ago.
If I had a choice, and had in my hopes the maximum good for the maximum number of fellow human beings, I'd much prefer Die PMs, Die than your wish. Call me naive, but I believe it is more socially beneficial to have ongoing concerns that employ people and produce goods, plus a system that has incentives for individuals to aggregate capital and allocate it for beneficial purposes, than to have a whole lot of pathologically angry people whacking off over stacks of metals or reciting prayers to them. Incentives. They're not so bad. Heck, even your avatar said "Greed is good".
Is it too much to think of the greater good rather than to fantasize about all the "Wow! You're so great" accolades that come with being able to say (repeatedly) "my DCA is below $300"? I'm not a fan of QE nor a shill for Bernanke, but unlike so many folks around here who seem to pine for roving zombie hordes and social strife, I'd rather not wish for that. I've seen it first hand, know it's not pretty, know it takes more far innocents than guilty parties, and most of those who think they want it would be crying for their Mommies if it ever actually happened.
I often think the species would be a whole lot better, and definitely a lot more rational, if we'd just left all the damn gold in the ground where it belongs. It would still "be there" like everyone's apocryphal boating accident losses, but its price rise and fall would not prompt people to wish their pain could be projected on to others.
The great irony is that even if a collapse/major reset occurs, most of the people who were on the top of the heap in this iteration will be on top in the next on, too. Darwin always win in the end. Maybe that is the real source of the anger.
I always appreciate and read your comments Chindit, we've walked the same path together on some things and taken a different path on others.
This is going to be a different path.
While I can appreciate the raising of saved capital in the interest of profit motive & the better good to society it creates, this is not what we've been witnessing for decades.
It goes against the laws of man & nature (and capitalism) that those in the closest proximty to power should reap the finest rewards, for doing nothing but breathing & counterfeiting fiat, thus destroying the savings of all in the process, rich & poor alike...the base of capitalism itself.
The saver (for the base of capitalism) should not be penalized for not acting, not putting their "savings to work" as the saying goes. The saver always is, if he stays in fiat, contract law and the fickle winds of a centralized manipulated market.
If you cannot trust the paper you hold in your hand you can't have capitalism.
Obviously being closest to the seat of power would yield large rewards.
You don't have any stocks? Aren't you some master of high finance? Don't you know sultans? And you have not made any money on the surge in asset prices in the last 5 years? You failed to understand that the Fed would do anything to keep rates low and increase prices?
Loser.
That's beautiful - Nmemen and Chindit need to get a room together. Who would have known?
Funny Chindit's never heard of the term mal-investment. Like paving over that 5,000 year old farm and put up a brand new shopping mall, because that's the sort of "investment" these ponzi bubbles create.
So your saying S&P 800?
S&P 666 has a nice ring to it.
Says the gold bugs.
The point of markets are not go straight up-- it's discount inefficient areas of the econ & flow of capital is dependent upon actual thoughts on investments that may not always work out, but that's the point of giving companies a chance to thrive & die so as not to be a drag upon the econ. *Cough Cough ZOMBIE BANKS!!!!
Zombie car companies...zombie multi- nationals (GE) ....zombie society.
Your point on the markets not going vertical.
If a market goes vertical and the above chart is getting there your first thought should be how do you justify the increase in value. What extra real thing has happened to make it plausible? Can't see on myself.
That is the mother of all assumptions. The darling FED will be back in full force before you can say bye-bye-Benny. You don't turn off the spigot with water going full blast without the pipes rattling to death.
Oh, I know it's not really funny but I can't stop laughing...
Assume no Fed...
Hmmm, would that be like a C class Mercedes Benz doing about 110 miles an hour in an urban setting in the wee hours of the morning suddenly losing control, jack-knifing and hitting a palm tree from the side causing the power train to eject 50 yards and the ruptured gas tank to explode char broiling the occupant like a steak ordered by a high-school dropout at Ponderosa???
If so I can imagine it...
Imagine there's no Fed
I wonder if you can
Nothing to juice the algos
A brotherhood of man
Imagine all the people
Investing for themselves
You may say I'm a dreamer,
but I'm not the only one . . .
This is an illusion of correction ..... lets see what happens on Sunday if nto tomorrow.
Q: how does an economist survive a shipwreck?
A: assume a raft.
the thing about beliefs and assumptions, they do not change what is real.
assume a fed or no fed, makes no difference.
Happy summer solistice.
FU Bernanke. The sooner the market clears the better.
Gordon T Long offers some awesome research, he should get some press here on ZH.
yeah, that would be awesome if Rick Santelli, told the Bernanke to F off. Maybe sooner than we think. I try not to be surprised by much these days.
let's get some put call ratio data on them charts.
The transfer of the nation's wealth to the globalists has ended. FED operation complete.
Obama is pissed. He's going to kill us all before he gets impeached. Someone call the police.
Head for the bunkers.
Aaaaaaggghhhhhhh.
NO FED?
I can dream, can't I?
Imagine no injection of $85 billion monthly because it's not happening.
If there were no FED the price of ink would collapse.
The twits and tits of CNBC would be debating why Cotton futures suddenly declined 98% in one day.
so often we overthink what really is simple I have learned this the hard way early in my career Never fight the fed and the tape. human psychology tells us otherwise but fighting the fed turned out to be a horrible trade as the shorts have been killed over the past five years. the fed has now signaled they are cutting off the oxygen supply. now is the time to go short. Any bounce should be faded. Biderman and dr. doom will finally be somewhat vindicated. Unfortunataly they missed out on the 4000 dow points on the way up but now is the time to be short. fade the rallies. As for gold, I wouldnt want to be long despite what should be a good long trade according to what the common opinion is....
You mean no Fed from 1913 to today???.........We'd be on fucking Mars.
This chart has been my background since you first posted it. Helped me keep my sanity while staying short this fraudulent market..
Most of you will hate me for admitting that my prior desktop was gold per troy ounce in USD.. 1960-current, showing Nominal price vs Adjusted for CPI-U... clearly showing a bubble formation.. Sorry I know most of you love gold (and logically it does make sense), however, logic as I've witnessed for the past two years, doesn't always make money.
Now imagine Kuroda-san (with his distinct lack of communications skills) trying to extricate himself and the BoJ from Japanese QE at some point.
That will not end well....
http://nipponmarketblog.wordpress.com/
i think kuroda san is printing 100 million yen notes because they soak up radiation better in fukushima! least this makes money printing useful!
The real issue is can a 100 million yen note buy the paper it is printed on?
just watching CNBC re-run on 40 billion shipped to iraq to repair all the damage caused by allied bombings (which cost around 10 billion).
i think its time to shave 2% off the intended taper and airlift 40 billion in bank notes into detroit before its too late..
big problem in iraq was how to move cash in a combat zone...wtf! there was no comabt, there was wmd deployed by allies that wiped out 100,000 military, 800,000 civilains and made 4 million homeless...
sounds more and more like detroit all the time..
after detroit..reduce the taper by a few more per cent..what difference does it make if the feds balance sheet gets to 4 trillion in June 2014 or September 2014?
http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/soma/sysopen_accholdings.html
Is Corzine on the Short List for Fed Char Man?
It's possible.
heh..not even obama is that dumb..
up arrow for yellen
down arrow for tim geithner
And the surprise choice is... wait for it...
Paul Krugman.
AKA "happy days are here again" for all manipulator-tracking investors.
those idiots who trade on borrowed money and with margin deserve to get wiped out great deal.
i really cant fucking take the media making it seem like today was something we have never seen.
the markets were down 2 percent.
japan has had 7 percent, 6 percent, and 5 percent losses in the last month intraday, along with plenty of 2 percent, yet the media makes it seem like today was doomsday.
we have not seen shit yet. if we wake up tomm and futures are down say 150 pts, maybe it would be time to panic a bit.
but this media is a joke. 2 percent losses to them is doomsday. this will be considered picnic soon
The media pundits likely put all their eggs into this basket and as it unravels they only see their money disappearing. Then it is doomsday ... for them.
Well, without the FED's "Free Money For Banksters" Program, all of those rapacious FAILED BANKS would have failed, and lots smaller banks would have grown in a better-regulated environment. So, 4-5 years down the road, as we are, nowhere near the money spent would have been printed. Those dramatic "Growth Spurts" would not have happened, but growth would have still been there-- I'd put S&P500 at ~1350-1400 by now without the Crony/Fascist intervention. There would have been lively competition in the freshly opened and leveled expanse of Market vacated by the TBTF&Js-- imagine that! The nature of the new players (mostly Regional-Level) would have altered the flow of money from inter-bankster to actual MAIN STREET loans. DOW would be at ~13,000, Q would be ~2,800, and the Major US Markets would have at least a modecum of Fundementals backing them again. I think we'd be well on our way to an honest recovery, had we let them die in the usual, controlled manner, a brought back Glass-Steagall, immediately.
yep yep yep yep...paulson was the treasury secretary though..and he only knew about money and rivals.
Ahhhh... Hank Paulson-- America's Friendliest Garbage Man(tm). Ol' Hank would take any old rancid shit his buddies felt like foisting into his trash compactor.
The Paulson Plan should have been jettisoned straight-away.
I thought that gold might slip to $1260 or so. Looks like we are here. The way it ass rockets down though this may not be the bottom yet. Might be close though. In the 70's there were a couple of times that gold dropped 35% from its high. Looks like history may repeat itself. The good news is that it climbed back in less than a couple years time.
Considering that I stopped buying silver at $15p/oz, as I feel I have plenty, and believe that anything above $15 is over-priced, I do find it interesting to see silver at sub-$20 right now. It was nice, when the rubes and the scammers were running silver up past $30. I sold some pieces I bought at $7, back in the day, for enormous profit-- good times.
Also, too for those buying pieces for SHTF times-- remember-- Don't buy EXPENSIVE coins!!! That gold ounce coin you bought for $1750? It's only worth what the seller of the goods you NEED says it is worth. Or, if THSREALLYHTF, it's only worth what the party with the most and fastest firepower says it is. So-- don't buy expensive coins. Never pay a Premium for "Collector's Item" crap.
You are numismatically correct.
My good friend and PM coin dealer is an officer of the Michigan State Numismatic Society. Rock solid. Old friend, and some of the best advice he's ever given me.
On the scale, my Caman Islands and Bahamas coins I paid Bullion + shipping for are the same coin-pure silver as that expensive premium Franklin Mint or US Mint Collector coin that charges bullion +massive Premium. Am I going to DEMAND or even expect the exact value/price I paid for that coin in goods? No. The coins I paid $7 for back in the day I'll use first, though, for sure!
I could buy house wid gaish. 30yr over 4% agian so, wid no income for da masses, re gonna tank. Just have to beat the Chinese to d' auction.
I am confident this is just the Fed's version of a cold shower, to cool everything off, as it continues to print. Note - no action has occurred, and this is mere jawboning. So BTFD if you believe the Fed is not through printing, not by a long shot. They will lose control sometime, but not anytime soon. Look how the market reacts to negative news from the FOMC, it will salivate even more over the next bucket of printed meat tossed into the mob of curs.
lets see. we are about to go to war in syria, american citizens rights are being violated on a regular basis by a large bloated arrogant machine, the global economy is teetering, and the fed wants to stop the printing....uh oh, looks like the machine is finished. now comes the big surprise!
http://blogs.marketwatch.com/election/2013/06/20/boehner-blames-fed-for-market-sell-off-in-cnbc-interview/
I said QE was over in March 2013
I said Tapering is currently ongoing and full halt coming soon but unwinding unlikely.
Watching the link I may change my mind, It's quite possible that full halt may have already happened and unwinding is about to start.
CARNAGE, PREPLANNED
I'm just reading the reality, nothing else
Bottom line: it's over
From an Austrian Economics perspective:
http://www.economicpolicyjournal.com/2013/06/bernanke-is-trapped-bear-gr...
"The ENTIRE economy is hooked on Bernanke easy money. Before official tapering, money growth is already starting to slide. There are only two choices at this fork in the road, keep money growth slow and crash the Bernanke manipulated stock market and economy or shoot more money into the veins of the economy, ultimately leading to spectacular price inflation."
It does look like Bernarke is self-selecting to be the scapegoat for something awful.
Now, assume total chaos. Without the Fed you would all be homeless Monday morning quarterbacks.
http://trololololololololololo.com/
Tick, Tick, Tick........KaBoom!
Pre-Planned,...as in pre-peeled oranges?
so the question is: do pre-peeled oranges still have their peel?
The punchbowl is being taken away as per the minutes.
Ben has completed his task
The punchbowl cannot be taken away. It is just a game
Jimmy crack corn and I don't care.
BTFD!
When will you ever learn?
http://youtu.be/c06GQf4BAdg
Jimmy can crack corn, but I don't care
My enemies crack corn, but I don't care
You can be black, white or a albino yeah
You can have corn rows inside your hair
I give a fuck if I don't like your stare
This bottle of wine goes upside your head
A little bit psycho, but I know that
Think you just don't say it, then I won't say it
See if you don't brag, then I don't brag
I know I'm bad, as long as I know I'm bad
I don't need y'all to co-sign no shit
You can just keep making them tired old threats
A little bit like the boy you cried wolf yeah
See me, but don't dare to try no shit
Cause you know that somewhere inside those layers
A rattlesnake's right there to bite your ass
And I can be so quiet and strike so fast
Like lightning bolts right out the sky go *blah
From outta nowhere, you might find your career
Come to an *err and I'm just like (Oh Yeah)
[Chorus - Eminem]
See us on them award shows, we're like (Oh yeah)
Can we get more of those, they're like (Oh yeah)
See us keep blowing up, we're like (Oh yeah)
See Jimmy can crack corn but I don't care
See me in the videos, I'm like (Oh yeah)
See me right up close, you're like (Oh Em)
And where is D12 at, they like (We over here)
And where the fuck we going, we're like (No where)
[Verse 2 - Eminem]
Jealous little fucks beg for my attention but
I done told you once, I'm not the kind of attention you want
If I tell you twice, then I won't be so nice
If you keep coming back, that only means you know you lost the fight
They wanna talk shit, let em talk shit, cause they talk shit
Knowing deep down, they really just wanna squash it
Cause no one wants to walk around, stepping in dog shit
And get doo-doo on the shoe again, soon as they washed it
But the pride won't let em, inside's like 'go get em'
And I'm just like 'Why your tryna fight momentum'
We just keep winning, by landslides oh and umm
Shady Limited's in any size yo, Denim
To velour, even our clothing line's on fire
As 50 would say 'Our clothing line's on Fiya'
Meanwhile your minds on us, like mine's on Mariah
And y'all is just like her, you're all fucking liars
But I just keep fucking you, like I fucked her
Right in the ass with KY, yes sir!
So full of joy, boy am I absurd
Even Chingy would tell you
'Yea boi don't curr'
[Chorus - Eminem]
See us on them award shows, we're like (Oh yeah)
Can we get more of those, they're like (Oh yeah)
See us keep blowing up, we're like (Oh yeah)
See Jimmy can crack corn but I don't care
See me in the videos, I'm like (Oh yeah)
See me right up close, you're like (Oh Em)
And where is G-Unit at, they like (We over here)
And where the fuck we going, we're like (No where)
[Verse 3 - 50 Cent]
Ya homie got clapped on, man I don't care
The cops in my Nana crib, but I'm not there
It is what it is dogg, man life's not fair
Ya friend should've know not to front round here
Listen kid, where I'm from, the wolves smell fear
They'll strip yo ass of your jewels, right here
Man I'ma say this one time, now get this clear
Man you can catch a hot one like outta no where
A beautiful day, without drama is rare
Ya girl's a freak, man sometime we share
Yeah, I wear a condom and you go bare
You prolly heard about me, I'm a shown up player
In the hood politicin, like I'm running for mayor
riding, winding, dining and shining, know what I'm saying
I ain't got time for fucking around, and horseplaying
I'm making hits, my homies taking hits, who's staying
[Chorus - Eminem]
See us on them award shows, we're like (Oh yeah)
Can we get more of those, they're like (Oh yeah)
See us keep blowing up, we're like (Oh yeah)
See Jimmy can crack corn but I don't care
See me in the videos, I'm like (Oh yeah)
See me right up close, you're like (Oh Em)
And where is D12 at, they like (We over here)
And where the fuck we going, we're like (No where)
Looks like this Lehman worry redux is blowing over. Chinese banks are strong, all is well...
Looked to the left of the chart S&P ==== 700. The whole of the chart is during the PUT and the trajectory before the first put was? Down. So from where it is not to where it may have ended up looks a dreadfully big fall.