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Strongest Philly Fed Since April 2011 Reinforces Taper Tantrum
If the June Empire Fed index was a humiliating embarrassment to whoever collates the data, with only the headline number rising even as all index components plunged, and was merely released to baffle with BS some more before the FOMC meeting, today's Philly Fed release will surely shock anyone who believes the markets and the economy are still correlated. Printing at 12.5, this was a surge from May's -5.2, far above the -2.5 expected, the highest print since April 2011, and the biggest beat of expectations since October 2011. When "Baffle with BS" fails, just baffle with BS some more. Of course, keep in mind that while in previous months the plunging Philly Fed led to a bad news is good news outcome, today's big beat will merely reinforce the hawkish Ben view, and encourage yet another Taper Tantrum.
The report summary:
And from the report:
Indicators Suggest Improvement
The survey’s broadest measure of manufacturing conditions, the diffusion index of current activity, increased from -5.2 in May to 12.5, its highest reading since April 2011 (see Chart). The percentage of firms reporting increased activity this month (34 percent) was greater than the percentage reporting decreased activity (22 percent).
Other current indicators showed similar notable improvement this month. The demand for manufactured goods as measured by the current new orders index increased, from -7.9 to 16.6. The shipments index also moved back into positive territory, rising 13 points to 4.1.
Labor market conditions showed continued weakness, however, with indexes suggesting lower employment among the reporting manufacturers. Although it increased 3 points to -5.4, the employment index remained negative for the third consecutive month. The percentage of firms reporting employment decreases (20 percent) exceeded the percentage reporting increases (15 percent).
In brief, perfect timing: just in time to catch the Chinese crash.
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IT'S MORNING IN AMERICA!!! (smashing fists on table).
THINGS ARE GREAT! DAMMIT I SAID THEY ARE GREAT!!!!
WHAT THE HELL IS WRONG WITH YOU PEOPLE?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NRifKEf0xr8
When the last BS didn't work they increase the level. Just like commercials.
If you want people to listen try whispering the truth instead of yelling a lie.
Well, now that prosperity is back, we can afford to lose all that wealth because nobody needs it to be spread around anymore.
..makes perfect sense in the Obama/Bernanke new normal.
and that is why i have a problem with santelli....he announced these numbers as being awesome...when the world knows its bullshit...but rick acts like god handed them to him so they are completly true and accurate..
Even better I love how we spent a year talking about Kevin and his NY Fed stick save everyday and now all of the sudden he is being overwhelmed.
My ass. This market is rigged. They will stop the bleeding when they want to.
After his recent rant about the Fed strategy, this actually reinforces his point that the Fed should be tapering if things are as good as they say they are. I don't think he actually believes they are. This BS report gives the Fed an out and Santelli is taunting them, including Liesman, at this point. "If things are so fucking great why are you buying $85B every stinking month?"
Santelli is just another tool, all part of the show, when are people going to grow up and recognize that? Awesome numbers my ass.
They are out in full force on CNBS today. The U.S is strong and rocking Fuck Yeah! Buy buy buy!
Some one needs to run up the bull shit flag on this one.
Are they doing it just for the Lulz?
No, they manipulate both ways. Part of the plan.... Do really think the Fed is going to ease?? When the SHTF, it will be in a blink... this is just theatrics for the massess.
The powers that be must have the consent of the people.....even if that consent is manipulated and artificially induced. So crash the system they will (again) which in turn provokes the desired response from "We the People", please please please Big Ben, please turn the fiat drug back on.
And this time turn it all the way up. Make my pain go away.
<Let the buyer (of the American Dream) beware.>
Someone suggested yesterday that people are being herded to cash before the big bail in.
That should be a huge fear for everyone. If I have learned anything from you scallywags and sob's it is that cash (FRNs) itself is not safe. Converting as much as possible to beans, bullion and brass.
We do not need any Fed bank to tell us how things are going.
If things were good, we'd already know it.
The fact that so many are waiting for reports to tell us how thing are improving say it ain't so.
"In brief, perfect timing: just in time to catch the Chinese crash."
Happy Days are here again..........
CNBC really want you to understand the market is not down that far from all time highs. They keep repeating it.
"These aren't the droids you're looking for."
When the lower level priests in any religious order have their faith tested it is advised that one endlessly repeat all incantations and spells to limit any infiltration of truth and awareness to the outer cognitive borders.
<If it really gets bad one can always sacrifice useless limbs and extremities. But never give up your core fiat beliefs.>
Ben is all talk, no action. He will keep printing until the end of his term. Then another will come in and do the same. This whole charade, fed minutes included is fakery. Just look at the typical under reaction in stocks and overreaction in gold. What a joke. And next comes the usual response in the physical markets, buy all you can!
I call absolute BULLSHIT! Expected is -2.5 and actual is 12.5, how do these people still have careers with this kind of analytical FAIL? Are their degrees in automotive maintenance (which is not a slight to mechanics)?
People who still think markets and the economies are correlated are people who have never operated an actual business, they know nothing whatsoever about real business, nor about real trading, between real producers.
I have been reliably informed this afternoon that one of our very British comedians Russel Brand has appeared on one of your news news outlets (MSNBC I think, dont quote me, not sure), and he made the presenters look as fucking thick as they so surely are.
Dont get me wrong, Russel Brand is a fucking prick but he made your lot, (from what I've been told) of news presenters look like fucking retards. And they had no idea he was doing it. Could it be Mr Brand is a closet ZHer?
Very nice.
you got that right mate, he's not even funny, just plain disgusting
All that is missing is the phylosophers stone and a perpetual motion device. G-d help the poor unsuspecting algos.
'Taper Tantrum' - What a great quip.
Bernanke's Taper Tantrum is more like edging in a sexual connotation applied to the markets. He can't really back off because he's trapped in eternal QE2< to the worlds banks so they can continue to feed the loop and keep his NYC 2B2Fails illusionally solvent. So he "edges" them, just enough to keep them from cuming, but not too much to get them pissed, get off the couch, and go back to the wife. His personal mission in life is to play this tune until January when he gets the hell out and hands his mess off to the next Chairwoman who is going to be the fall... woman. 2013 will be great, but it's all paying forward and 2014 will begin a descent into hell for 2015 and 16, to be known as those dangerous years of revolution. Serfs Up America! www.electanewcongress.com
All data in the index is seasonally adjusted so it doesn't mean crap.
June is a historically slow month for anything manufactured, so if there was anything shipped at all it adds immensely to the seasonal adjustment.
You want a real gauge of business activity. ITS TAKING A SHIT EVERYWHERE!!!
2013 has been the worst year for business in the last 15 I have been involved with. Sales are so bad everywhere, that we are all wondering if there has been anything bought at all. Macy's still has about 80% of their summer inventory and needs to liquidate to make room for the fall stuff.
$80 shirts are $10 this weekend.
Chk out the BALTIC DRY INDEX It's been going up BIG for 10 days straight.
I think posters are missing that this is NOT a good print, look at "Number of Employees", it is still FALLING.