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Visualizing Gold And Stock Returns
With both stocks and precious metals taking it on the chin in the last two days, we thought this visualization of real rolling returns of stocks and gold would be of interest...
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For people that started buying in 2010 and onward that chart doesn't count :-) Maybe for those who are buying at these levels.
5% - 10% (or more) of everyone's net wealth should be in physical gold (preferred) and/or silver. I only excuse those without children from this suggestion.
oh I have plenty of silver.
And other metals.
http://www.gunbot.net/ammo/22lr/
Truth be told, my parents-in-law bought gold at $1,850. Kind of sucks being a 'hot-shot-investor' in their eyes right now. "See I told you so!"
I'll buy all they have at today's low,,,
Yeah, but does it really matter, besides an "I should've waited till now" (which could've been disastrous as well), if they weren't expecting to sell it by now or anytime soon?
FTFY
http://www.gunbot.net/ammo/223-556/
http://gunbot.net/ammo/762x39/
http://gunbot.net/ammo/545x39/
http://gunbot.net/ammo/762x54/
Du liebes Kind, komm, geh mit mir!
Gar shone Spiele spiel' ich mit dir;
manch' bunte Metall sind am dem Strand;
meine Sklavin hat manch' gulden Gewand.
Mein Vater, Mein Vater, jetzt fasst er mich an!
GeldKonig hat mir ein Leids gethan!
Dem Vater grauset's, er reitet geschwind,
er halt in Armen das achzende Kind,
erreicht den Hof mit Muh und Noth:
In seinen Armen das Kind sind todt.
Damn Reitch you are
You must be looking for German poetry. This is the place for Arguments.
Alles klar?
There is an enormous gap between the 200DMA and the spot price. Everyone is bearish on gold now. The commercial short position is small. Even zerohedge isn't talking about gold much these days.
In other words, the time to buy is very close. I've been sitting on a lot of cash for months now and my trigger finger is itchy.
BTW, the HUI is looking even more oversold than gold.
Blood in the streets BUY BUY BUY
Franco Nevada
Pretium
Premier gold mines
Goldcorp
Adventure gold
As for the charts... Comparing gold to stock indexes is just plain wrong. The index comparison does not account for the stocks that enter and exit the index.
The composition of gold never changes.
The composition of stock indexes always change
Blood in the streets
So that's where all the 'liquidity' went!
Pretium
Premier gold mines
Goldcorp
Adventure gold
All of these companies are crap except Goldcorp (which is still over priced). Yeah yeah pretium has the big grades, yeah but where is that located again...? It's like Pebble, big hype, good luck with that. Anytime you're buying these you're paying big money into compensation packages, stupid options agreements, 10k / day / drill etc. A lot of them are desperate for cash and notorious for dilution too. Who was the highest paid gold mine ceo in Canada last year? Oh yeah, Quartermain from Pretium lol
What's interesting is watching the claims, folks thought they were going to be made kings overnight but now with the market turning they're going to start slashing their prices looking for cash. Especially claims held over a couple generations. Will be interesting to see how agressive companies are picking up land. Seems it could be a bonanza in the next couple years. 10-20yrs from now it's going to be a lot cheaper for exploration and extraction too so holding a bunch of claims could be very lucrative.
Particularly if you believe the dollar is going down.
Anyway, people buying miners right now, well good luck.
Edit: I didn't even look at Pretium today, -14%! Ouch. But don't worry, they have a bulk sample update, Quartermain worth every penny!
lol this is ZIRP man. Get with the program.
Who gives a flaming fiddlers stanic demonic fuck about fundamentals ?
I don't care if Pretuim is on Mars. The hot money eventually will flow Pretiums way.
Love me some pretium, I am a buying if it dips below six bucks. Premier Gold, buy if it gets below $1.50, it will lead the charge when sentiment reverses.
Don't forget your royalty companies, Sandstorm Gold looks really good at six bucks a share.
Some Peter Schiff from today:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NYxKOAQGjoI&feature=c4-overview&list=UUIjuLiLHdFxYtFmWlbTGQRQ
http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?play=1&video=3000177098
and a little Marc Faber
http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?play=1&video=3000177125
Thanks for that.
That CNBC anchor is cute but I just want to go Mel Gibson on her every time I see her on TV
"but I just want to go Mel Gibson on her every time I see her on TV"
+1. Great quote.
BTW, the Chinese call him Mayo GeeBooSheen
Bang Dae Ho
I agree. I'd like to J.O. in her face.
always good to listen to Marc Faber
those are the most circumspect views out of CNBC in ages. Thanks for the post. If you didn't see it Jim Rogers is also a buyer today. http://www.hardassetsinvestor.com/interviews/4917-jim-rogers-i-bought-more-gold-today-bull-market-far-from-over.html
No disrespect to either, but I've got a clock that's more accurate then they are: it is dead nuts accurate TWICE a day. Every day. :-)
Jeff Macke! Where HAS he been? I must be out of the loop. Crazy Jeff. Go, guy!
Wait until Ben flip / flops on what he said yesterday....another 300 pt down day and he'll be telling everyone he was misquoted by himself....what he had meant to say there will never be any taper....
plebs are already working on his script
tapering is not happening or the entire world will be a smoking hole in the ground. QE will be expanded you can count on that and gold and silver will go to the moon! http://tinyurl.com/mem7o7x
Tapering started a month ago.
Yea right try to stuff the genie back in the bottle...sure.
A multi-generational debt bubble created the extra returns in stocks.
Who could have foreseen this!
<sarc>
I didn't take abstract rendering of dimensionally inverse linear regressions yet so I couldn't figure out what the graphs meant. Although, they did look pretty well done.
The main thing that is missing in this..
If you buy physical you will still have it
If you buy stocks, you could end up with nothing because of fraud, go out of business, you name it. Stocks can go to zero very quickly, gold has persisted as a finite resource that humans value highly throughout millennia, which would you prefer to buy?
Look, precious metals will either hold their VALUE or increase compared to currencies over time...short term, I don't know. Look, if you plan to live through the hell that's coming, you better start buying and stacking!
Take paper why not, at least you can wipe your arse with it, saves a few micro pennies
Phyzzz now that is something I don't know where it is somehow....
Gold will go to a million an ounce.
Ounces must be getting bigger, too.
Get your bargain physical gold now, Zerohedgies! Once Bernanke and Obama stop their short-selling manipulation, the price is going to soar! It's the sale of the century!
Is it possible that they are pounding gold and silver down to try to convince physical holders to sell as a last ditch effort? It's stupid, I know, but it's the government we are talking about.
This theory has been postulated many times since gold was 1800.
Probably more likely to keep boomers and silents in their stocks and bonds (thus ensuring them a short, miserable life eating alpo and friskies).
Advice please
After 3.5 yrs unemployed, I have been employed since 10/12. I have stayed out of the employee 401k , preferring to buy pm, food stuffs and things that perforate.
I am in my 50s, the bank still owns my home, but it is affordable.
Am I on the right track? I have nothing in the stock market since I despise the game.
Thoughts?
Sell your home. Real estate is going to take another dive.
Thanks Hudson, I bought the house in forclosure back in 2010. I can't sell it for what I owe since I leveraged the crap out of it and purchase realestate and pm , both of which are paid for. I was hoping I might could pay it off with pm , when the time is right.
Trust me when I say I have no qualms about bugging out if it comes to that, its just so comfortable now.I don't wish to go back to living in a camper and taking sponge baths again.
Know what I mean ?
When the average price of a home in the US is equal to 1,000 ounces of silver you should use your PMs to buy more real estate.
I was unemployed for 7 months, just got a job this week. It was sheer agony.
Keep your house. Regardless of what happens you'll need a place to stay. I am trying to stack, too, just bought more this morning.
Get a handgun bigger than a .32 and learn how to use it. Get a couple rifles too. A 22LR and anything bigger than a .223. Learn to use that too. Find God and hold onto your values. Find others with the same value system. Stay close to family. Pray.
keep your family close to you....
till one day sons and daughters...
rise up and FIGHT.........
while we stood still...............
Can you hear me......
Wow, I literally have this video up and playing on another tab: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ep7W89I_V_g
I would add to what Bandgap said by advising you to also obtain a high capacity 12 guage shotgun. A good shotgun with the right load out is highly useful and flexible.
INAB,
Yes, you are on the right track. Maintain the present course. Minimize any and all counter-party risk. Remove as many agents as possible between you and your assets. Operate under the assumption that if you are not in physical possession of the asset, it is at great risk. This includes keeping your PMs outside of the system. IF banks fold or a holiday is declared, you will likely not get access. The net is filled with ideas on how and where to store them, though given your age you probably have the clarity of thought and resourcefulness to solve this problem.
The unfortunate reality is that the very concept of a fiduciary, or responsible caretaker, is for all intents and purposes gone. YOU are the best caretaker of your assets.
Keep with your present plan. When things fold up, you will be sitting very nicely will others around you are scrambling.
All great advice, big thanks !! FYI @ Bandgap , I reload and harvest critters out to 400 yds. I beez loaded with more than beer !!
Thanks!!
Another week or two and these charts might not look so close
from the link "For the period 1928-2012, the average annual compound real return of stocks = 6.0% and gold = 2.2%. However, the price of gold was controled by the government until the mid-70s when the US finally abandoned the gold standard. For the period 1976-2012, the average returns were stocks = 6.7% and gold = 2.5%. "
So stocks three times better than gold. Now did she make this chart in the morning or the afternoon cuz by the afternoon it was worse and by next week maybe lots worse.
A lot of people on here say they been stacking every drop since gold was 1900 and were glad to pay big premiums during the last couple declines on both gold and silver.
They are not saying much today.
That is because many are probably out trying to buy more before the shops close....
It is also a difference in mindset and asset class. Most of the stackers are in it for the long haul, or at least longer than equities. Most do not stack as an investment, but as a way to store something of value other than ink on a piece of paper, whatever instrument that may be.
Yes, PMs have come down significantly since 1900, but this does not change the realities that the stackers see, not the least of which is the destruction of the U.S. dollar.
It is also a way of becoming one's own central bank of sorts. Nothing to report, they leave no trails, they are immediately transportable and can be cashed in a hell of a lot faster than any other asset class. Stackers can dump metals for cash much much faster than stocks or bonds can be turned into the same.
Yes, significant gains could have been made in equities, but those who have experienced these gains have done so within a realm of risk greater than what the long term stackers have been willing to tolerate.
If you have profited in this great equities run up, then by all means congratulations. We are happy that you have done so without getting shanked.
If you have not done so yet, convert some of those Benny Bucks into something other than ink on paper and, size permitting, hide it.
Anyone stacking at 1900 and not also having been stacking at 600 would be a fool and not a real stacker. Likewise anyone buying stocks on in the last month aren't exactly crowing right now either. Perspectives matter.
We all show up to the party on our own timescale. I'm glad I showed up three years ago when Au was $1150 and Ag was $17, but I sure wished I had joined the party 10 years before that -- no house, no kids, and plenty of money to spend. - sigh -
I bought gold on Monday and if I could predict the future would have waited to buy until Thursday, but buy I would. At this point gold is NOT an investment. It is without a doubt the best insurance policy you can purchase right now. I will buy more while the price is down and pray I can take delivery before the SHTF.
Irrelevant. Why? Because 'return' is not the right way to be thinking in times like these. We have entered the end times, so to speak (end ponzi, to be more specific). There is now only one decision to make. Do you want paper, or would you prefer something a little more tangible? Choose wisely. Time is short.
Funny how returns on gold averages almost exactly the monetization rate.... I mean - the inflation rate....
http://nipponmarketblog.wordpress.com/
How can you be a follower of PMs and not be thoroughly disgusted with the US and World financial system? I am very surprised that there has not been more violence. Not condoning it but very surprised.
Western Mining Industries in serious crisis
Gold price and prices for other metalls is too low.
Analysts summary: In terms of gold itself, resource analyst John Kaiser doesn’t believe that it’s entered a long-term bear market, saying instead that he believes the recent large declines are due to bullion banks desperately attempting to extract physical gold out of a tight market through the COMEX and major gold ETF, GLD.
http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/john-kaiser/western-mining-in...
Chidambaram to Indians: Please, don't buy gold
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/Chidambaram-to-Indians-Please-dont-buy-gold/articleshow/20567963.cms
and also
Rupee getting hit
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/opinions/20676362.cms?commenttype=mostrecommended&sorttype=bycount
and guess what People are ramping up on GOLD.
Here are some of the comments;
Indian (World)6 days ago A simple note to Mr Chidambaram. The only reason people go towards gold is because they dont have trust on the currency issued by Government of India. And why is that, because if i earn/save Rs.100 today, today it might buy me a one or two meals. But we are not sure if the same will be true after 4-5 years. Even if i put the money in Bank, i would be getting back only around Rs 150. But if i buy Gold, i know the price of Gold is tagged with Dollar and Dollar is being printed crazily by US Fed and the price of Gold will also rise. So if an ounce of Gold fetches me 4 meals a day i can be assured the same one ounce of Gold will still fetch me 4 meals a day at anytime. Mr Finance Minister, i am not sure if you know the basic understanding on Economics. The currency issued by Government are nothing but Debt instruments. When the trust for currency goes down, then precious metals demand will be there. Agree there is a cultural affinity also going on with Indians, but that culture was inculcated by our forefathers who were not that un-educated and ignorant, as we may have initially percieved. Before you ask the Citizens to not Buy gold, i ask you to reduce the deficit in Government spending. The Government spends more than what it earns. You run a bloated Government, with so many ministries and ministers. Please cut down the size of the Govt ministries and do not spend more than what you earn. Once you do that, Rupee will appreciate, people will start having trust on Rupee and investment in Gold will reduce. Till that happens, stop advising us.