This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
The Week That Was: June 17th - June 21st 2013
Succinctly summarizing the positive and negative news, data, and market events of the week...
Positives
- June FOMC says no taper quite yet, keep buying
- Fed & bulls claim employment ‘recovery’, but here are the facts
- Philly Fed posts huge beat in June, coming in at a 12.5 print
- CME hikes gold margins by 25%, that’ll teach those evil ZH’ers
- Don’t sweat it, just BTFD: a visual
- Another visual: Assume no fed, or said otherwise by some peeps, growth accelerating
- Fed James Bullard wants moar, disagrees with tapering… however, his reason may disappoint some bulls
- Home builders are most confident in 7 years , so we’ve got that going for us
Negatives
- All is not well in Cyprus – President asks for the bail-in to be unwound
- Goldman warns Abenomics has already run its course; only volatility & high yields remain
- Greece only has a budget hole of EUR 1.2bn; the troika is good for it
- The rise in interest rates has the Bernank a bit ‘puzzled’
- Crisis over: Each day 134 retail outlets close in Italy
- Liquidity crunch: On China’s red flags
- More on China’s interbank market freeze
- Speaking of ‘Puzzled’, what exactly constitutes the recovery everyone is talking about
- Bernanke’s comments lead to global liquidation, or as some refer to it, “nervous cough”
- European markets plunge
- Weekly initial claims worse than expected, come in at 354k
- You don’t say? JPM says fed stimulus inflated asset prices, removal could create a tail event
Additional
- Kyle Bass: “Next 18 months will redefine economic orthodoxy for the West”
- On Jon Hilsenrath’s editor: the NY Fed
(h/t @ZH_Crown)
»
- 6893 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
Whew!! Ready for the next roller coaster next week.
Red Hot Chili Peppers - Love Rollercoaster (High Quality)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N1cbsLKXasQ (3:40)
The Careless Whisper NEWS UPDATE & Threadjacking (AHEAD OF DRUDGE)
Governor Chris "Two Chin" Christie Orders Flags In New Jersey Flown At Half Staff In Honor Of Mob Boss Tony Soprano; Heart Attack After Visit To Vatican
http://www.nypost.com/p/news/international/gandolfini_autopsy_confirms_h...
EXCLUSIVE: Email Received By LA TV Reporter From Hastings; Doing Big Story On No Secretos Ay; VIDEO OF CAR CRASH; LAPD Concludes No Foul Play
http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-hastings-crash-emails-201306...
Tax Refunds Go To 24,000 Fake People At Same Address
http://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/irs-sent-464m-tax-refunds-23994-unau...
"...Ready for the next roller coaster next week."
Whew, isn't that normalized a bit 2 much?
the system is so freaking levered that the mere HINT of TAPERING at some ambiguous time in the future caused a selloff. Not tapering, not, gasp, the selling of securities. The fed had to RAISE RATES 13 TIMES to cause a selloff last time. Oh yeah, the market is much more stable now. [/sarc.]
Cons out number pros 3-2........BTFD!
Kyle Bass: “Next 18 months will redefine economic orthodoxy for the West”
Gotta love Kyle, but his market timing hasn't exactly been stellar !
Forgot to add the fact that 30 year mortgage rates just shot up almost 0.5% in the week, to the negative bucket. That should help offset #8 in the posibitve bucket.
An interesting quote:
Loan Originator Perspectives
"The recent events leave me speechless. In my 10 years in the industry I have never seen a meltdown this quickly and dramatically. We cannot control the market, but we can control our emotions. Closing within 30 days should be locked up. 30-60 days should consider locking as well. Any technical or fundamental basis for floating has been diminished. Is there a saving grace? " -Constantine Floropoulos, Quontic Bank
These sort of changes spook the buyers too. You'll have 2 groups. Those that pull the plug on getting a home (some reports of this already) and those that scramble to buy and lock in a rate now. Seems that will trigger an increase in home sales for next 1-2 months with a nasty crash for Aug/Sept home sales...if rates keep increasing.
My wife has a few new constructioin homes under contract, as always, several of these homes are built at the buyers max loan total amount. She has one that broke ground two weeks ago, but I don't think will end up going through if this continues. When the contract was signed/buyer preapproved, rates were calculated at a 3.5%/30yr, as of today they are 4.5% on the 30/yr. The house I spoke of above had the payment go up $100 since the contract was signed a month ago.
The crazy part of all of it is that in order to get the payment back in line the price would have to drop over 10% to make up for 1% of increase in interest rate. I don't see how housing will survive with a rate anywhere in the 5-6% range. So many people won't be able to sell due to the fact they just refi'd/eq pull when prices have to drop due to higher rates.
Con:
The cost of our national debt will now cost us more debt.
Additional: "Sky defender: Russia unveils S-300 SAM replacement"
It is part of Russia's Iron Dome. Since the West (US+UK Neocons) keeps absorbing its neighbors into NATO, but won't let Russia in. Nor will they share basic ballistics info for NATO's ABM (Anti-Ballistic Missiles) with Russia -- even though they are supposedly aimed at preventing an 'Iranian attack'.
As the next move, I'd expect Obama to announce a reduction in nukes. If so, the goal is obvious: Reduce the total count of Russia's nukes, so that NATO's ABMs can handle what's left, rather than being overwhelmed with sheer numbers. That's how Sun Tsu or Von Clausewitz would play it tactically. If I were Putin, I'd say: "Thanks but nyet, comrade Obama. Let's talk about Russia joining NATO or its Iron Dome program, and then we can talk SALT 3".
Additional: 1. Since the Big Gun Scare of 2011/12, gun availability has increased (even with ARs) and gun prices have dropped ~ 20% from peak in Jan. 2012. Was VERY bullish for gun merchants. What a great lobby they have, come Bonus Time for its execs. /s
2. Ammo supplies -- other than shotgun shells -- are as good as gone in mass-market stores, and small-time G+A dealers. Only the well-known dealers have limited supplies. Nice consolidation of the supply chain in ammo -- that's what that is.
By having DHS assert its "First Dibs" rule (reminiscent of the Middle Ages), and buying up almost everything in sight, the number of outlets has been greatly reduced -- for an eventual throttling of even these stores. / If the serfs get too uppity. And, again, a VERY nice windfall for the Execs of the G+A industry. /s
Three big NEGATIVES:
Today the primary trend of the stock market turned bearish. This is ominous, and increases the odds for lower prices in the days ahead.
http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2013/06/dow-theory-update-for-june-21...
Yesterday the primary bear market for GDX and SIL was reconfirmed
http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2013/06/dow-theory-update-for-june-20...
And the day before yesterday the primary bear market for paper gold and silver was reconfirmed
http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2013/06/dow-theory-update-for-june-19...
A real negative and deflationary week
Tyler........here is a story for ya for the weekend...............I wonder if T Geithner was behind this......
http://www.salon.com/2013/06/18/bank_of_america_whistleblowers_bombshell...
the biggest surprise in a long time, Brazilians protesting against bread and circus policies.
It is a little Willy Market:
"Oh kiss me once, then kiss me twice, then kiss me once again.." "Mommy, mommy, what's a once?"
"Mommy, mommy, mommy, no matter how hard I try I just keep running in a circle!" "Shut up you little brat before I nail your other foot to the floor."