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The Biggest Prospective Housing Bubble Cities In The US
Housing price gains are outpacing fundamentals, as the median new home sale price relative to real disposable income has recent reached all-time high levels (higher than than the admitted bubble of the mid 2000s), and there are several regions around the US that are seeing simply stunning levels of exuberance with regard price changes. That leaves us asking - just which cities are the most bubble-prone? In order to answer that, Bloomberg has quantified the US cities with the most rapid growth in unemployment (not exactly supportive of home price excesses) coupled with the fastest rising prices. The answer - Yuma, Arizona (followed closely by Elmira, NY) is the most housing-bubble-prone city in the US.
Bloomberg ranked U.S. metropolitan areas on their year-over-year increase in unemployment and median housing list prices.
Methodology
The score was calculated by averaging the two percentage ranks of both criteria. Only metropolitan areas with an increase in both unemployment and median housing list prices between April 2012 and April 2013 were included. For metropolitan areas with more than one city, the average median housing list price of all cities within the area was used. Unemployment rates are seasonally adjusted.
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Nick Papageorgio is a winner again.
awesome!
so it's green lights all the way for vegas and phoenix and nyc and miami and LA and SF
and detroit
greenshootin!
Elmira, NY is tiny -- that's probably one person who bought one custom house in the forest.
The only things that I can remember in that area are Corning (in Corning, NY) and the private and state universities in Alfred, NY.
WTF is going on in Yuma, however, I cannot say....
Yuma is snowbird country - my parents used to winter there after retiring to a trailer and hitting the road.
Marine base is the primary employer. Big population swings - exodus in spring as it gets hot (and it gets VERY hot in Yuma); grand re-entry in the fall as the snowbirds return to the very mild, mostly dry winters. Huge trailer parks. Lousy medical care for the elderly, alas; but fairly cheap for the working poor retirees.
Maybe its the Marine enlisted folks buying houses for their familes before they ship out...
"Chicago-Naperville-Joliet"
Jerks.
Chicago-Naperville-Plainfield-Joliet
Word to my buds in tornado alley gettin no respect...
The names are decided by the Office of Management and Budget supposedly based on population concentration. Trust me, many times they don't make sense.
No Detroit? You'd think the ease with which you can obtain illicit drugs and drone of constant gun fire would count for something. This study is biased.
It has some methodology issues if nothing else. The Villages in Florida is almost entirely unemployed, but is one of the healthiest housing markets in the country. Of course that's an extreme example, but point being it's going to be hard to apply such a simple number of variables that will make sense across all market areas. Further, they don't weight market size at all. Who gives a crap if Yuma, AZ implodes, it's tiny. And while Chicago makes the list because its broader economy hasn't been very good for years, a market like Phoenix has a bigger risk because of how insanely fast it has expanded home construction over the last year (and continues to do so) as well as a torrid pace of resales thanks to cash investor groups.
Any study like this that includes Fargo with such puny numbers and not a single Cali metro area has to be flawed.
Elmira, NY? Former home of Jane Roberts (Seth Speaks, The Nature of Personal Reality, etc.).
"You create your own reality. There is no other rule."
– Seth
Upon entering the city of Elmira, one is greeted with a large billboard claiming that it is the former home of Brian Williams, Mark Twain, and Ernie Davis (no particular order of significance).
Wheeling + Marcellus Shale Boom.
Things are looking up. Higher unemployment leads to higher home prices. Great recovery.
Where you at Fairfield CT? Ya fucking piece of shit 15% UE shithole? Prolly deflated enough at around 40 fuck me percent. Can't wait to leave.
IridiumRebel,
You still there. That sucks. I sold my home 15 miles outside Hartford last month. I could not be more happy. Yes I took a hit but the house was paid off. NYC screws numbers for CT.
We lost a house district over last 10 years and this doesn't even register on radar.
Yuma,AZ is the lettuce growing capital of the USA
Why would real estate be hot there?
I guess they built another warehouse for lettuce heads....
they built a what kinda house for the let us heads?
A whorehouse to let us get head.
Public spending at it's best.
when its 116 degrees outside, the houses are hot.
Large MC base near Yuma. Could simply be a unit rotation.
Elmira?
I'll ask again because I am from Upstate NY.
Elmira??
I saw on Yahoo! today a log cabin on Saranac Lake for $6.5 Million.
Hay hayseeds! Are you fucking serious? You don't even have farming anymore!
Like many cities in the NE, it has suffered greatly from de-industrialization. It would be a ghost town if not for govt transfer payments and Elmira College.
Yes. And thank goodness for the Military Industrial Complex (wink) because my Mom near Fort Drum might actually get out of her house in the black.
And gliding!
No So Cal? Housing prices are stupid again in Los Angeles and San Diego due to flippers, Chinese and hedge fund speculators.
This next housing crash is going to make 2006 look like a warm up.
good point g-man, socal is INSANE all over again, it matters not cause all you have to do if values drop is walk away....well the new rule is just stop making payments (since they have outlawed foreclosure in California) and pocket the money till prices bottom and then rebuy....I HAVE SEEN THIS HAPPEN
I'm hearing commercials for house flipping seminars on the raydio yet again...
The biggest housing bubble is in NYC. Without the overleveraged support of the bailed out financial industry the Manhattan apartment pricing will be ruined. It is coming soon. And the stupid rich people who buy apartments around Central Park , will not be very happy when only bocks away from their neighborhood is being sold drugs and guns. Remember NYC in the 70s it is coming again, and this time, there is nothing to rescue it, like cheap credits from petrodollars as before. Ones the petrodollar is out, look for the collapse of the NYC "strong" housing market.
WELLS FARTGO LOWERS DOWN PAYMENT TO 10% Partyonnnn !
Unemployment rates are seasonally adjusted.
I love good seasoning, Paula Dean uses lots of salt and butter, nigga please!
http://www.metacafe.com/watch/116579/nigga_please_cereal/
Ot
Dr Copper don't look so good......
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=HG&p=h1
Fuckwits on The Food Network fail to realize her fan base uses that word on a daily basis.
It is not about the “N” word.
The Network (corporation) wanted out of the contract, salty, buttery food is not hip anymore, demonize the Savannah girl, and cancel the contract, problem solved.
Nike did the same with that golfer dude.
Lafayette, IN 5th???!!!!
HAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!
There's nothing there. You could drive through on I-65 and not even know it's there.
I lived there 17 years ago. There's still nothing there.
Great place to raise kids though.
Manchester is the armpit of NH. Packed to the rafters with degenerates. I wish it wasn't so.
Housing bubble never ended.
So everything's fine, right? House prices will double again in three years...is that what you're trying to tell me?...While wages sink lower and food prices and property taxes soar.
The inverse relationship between the price a house will sell for and the mortgage interest rate are about to turn toxic.
Even though you have a 30 year fixed at 4%, once the rate goes up you'll find yourself upside down on the loan and, unlike those in 2006, who had no equity, the 20% you put down will likely erode (unless you bought in foreclosure).
The bigger issue may be CMBS because they were saved (?!) from a correction by mark-to-model accounting.
Even though this is a paper loss, it will affect your (residential, commercial or both) credit rating and the rate you enjoy on your leased car will increase along with the credit basis for everything else. When your equity is diminishing, like in the original scandal, the RMBS that your note is a part of will fall in rating with all the same magnified effects that occurred when mark-to-market was abandoned to avert collapse.
Oh wait, did we ever even move away from mark-to-model?
The Fed will soon find that QE forever is unavoidable becuase it will not matter. The market will take it all and since it's all fictional money anyway, it's better to play it to the end and keep the brain dead market alive for as long as possible just like Terry Schivo. If it takes a decade to recover from the collapse, with or without endless QE, then why not live for today and worry about tomorrow when it arrives. With any luck most of us reading this will have passed away or be too old for it to really matter and in the meantime we can live life to the fullest.
Doc Holiday laudanum and Yuma.
RIP
Quite a large number of shit-holes on that list...
Sweet, #26 made the list. I would not be raising my children here if it sucked though. There are a lot of hard working folks in St Cloud, Minnesota. It's the biggest small town I have ever lived in. You sure it is a bubble?
Fucking Yuma! Marines, scorpions and unemployment through the roof. Why live anywhere else?
I actually liked the place when I worked there for a few months.
There is an old territorial prison just perfect for some US politicians, too!
"30 days to get Pike or 30 days back to Yuma, Thornton!"
First Wallyworld I went to where I was like the only Anglo, but my espanol is OK, so it was fun.
Keep Stackin!
Keep Blowing Whistles!
Vaya con Dios, Sen. SNowden.
!Al encacargado por ust. El Dicko!
Wheeling, WV the only real demand - oil and gas guys flooding the place. Some guys are renting rooms in a single family to save on hotel or not sleep in their trucks. There are not enough motels. Why would anyone need an Extended Stay in Wheeling WV...until now.
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